Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: week ending 3 July 2020

• Comparison of weekly death occurrences in England and Wales: up to week ending 3 July 2020

• Where to find statistics on UK deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) and infection rates by country

• The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 3 July 2020 (Week 27) was 9,140, this was 161 deaths more than Week 26.

• In Week 27, the number of deaths registered was 0.5% below the five-year average (43 deaths fewer), this is the third consecutive week that deaths have been below the five-year average; the numbers of deaths in care homes and hospitals were also fewer than the five-year average (88 and 634 deaths lower respectively), while the number of deaths in private homes was 755 higher than the five-year average.

• Of the deaths registered in Week 27, 532 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 15 weeks, accounting for 5.8% of all deaths in England and Wales.

• In Week 27, the proportion of deaths occurring in care homes decreased to 20.1% while deaths involving COVID-19 as a percentage of all deaths in care homes decreased to 9.2%.

• Except for the East of England and London, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 continued to decrease or remained similar across all English regions, with five of the nine regions having fewer overall deaths than the five-year average in Week 27.

• In Wales, the total number of deaths was above the five-year average (29 deaths more) for Week 27 while the number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased to 35 deaths registered (from 30 deaths in Week 26).

• Of all deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to Week 27, 63.5% occurred in hospital, with the remainder mainly occurring in care homes (29.7%), private homes (4.6%) and hospices (1.4%).

• The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 3 July 2020 (Week 27) was 10,393, which was fewer than the five-year average (by 74 deaths); of the deaths registered in the UK in Week 27, 560 deaths involved COVID-19.

Figure 1: The number of deaths involving COVID-19 decreased for the 11th consecutive week

Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 3 July 2020

The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales increased from 8,979 in Week 26 (week ending 26 June 2020) to 9,140 in Week 27 (week ending 3 July 2020). The number of deaths was 0.5% below the five-year average (43 fewer deaths) (Figure 1). This is the third consecutive week that weekly deaths have been below the five-year average. More information is in Measuring the data.

The coronavirus (COVID-19) has had a large impact on the number of deaths registered over the last few months and is the main reason for deaths increasing above what is expected (the five-year average). The disease has had a larger impact on those most vulnerable (for example, those who already suffer from a medical condition) and those at older ages. Some of these deaths would have likely occurred over the duration of the year but have occurred earlier because of the coronavirus. These deaths occurring earlier than expected could contribute to a period of deaths below the five-year average.

The number of deaths registered in Week 20 was impacted by the early May Bank Holiday (on Friday 8 May 2020, in Week 19); the impact of the early May Bank Holiday was analysed in our Week 20 bulletin. Week 22 included the late May Bank Holiday (on Monday 25 May 2020), so trends seen in Weeks 22 and 23 should also be interpreted with caution.

The number of death registrations involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) decreased from 606 in Week 26 to 532 in Week 27, the lowest number of COVID-19 deaths registered since Week 12 (week ending 20 March) when 103 deaths involved COVID-19. Of all deaths registered in Week 27, 5.8% mentioned COVID-19; down from 6.7% in Week 26.

The number of deaths in England and Wales increased in Week 27. In England, there was an increase from 8,414 in Week 26 to 8,542 in Week 27, which was 66 fewer than the Week 27 five-year average. Of the Week 27 deaths, 5.8% (497 deaths) involved COVID-19.

In Wales, the number of deaths increased by 32 in Week 27 to 584 deaths, 29 more than the five-year average. Of these, 6.0% (35 deaths) involved COVID-19.

The number of deaths mentioning “Influenza and Pneumonia” on the death certificate (without COVID-19) increased from 938 in Week 26 to 1,004 in Week 27, remaining below the five-year average. The number of deaths that mentioned both “Influenza and Pneumonia” and COVID-19 on the death certificate decreased to 204, compared with 229 deaths in Week 26.

In Week 27, 16.8% of all deaths mentioned “Influenza and Pneumonia”, COVID-19, or both compared with 17.2% in Week 26. “Influenza and Pneumonia” has been included for comparison, as a well-understood cause of death involving respiratory infection that is likely to have somewhat similar risk factors to COVID-19.

Figure 2: The number of excess deaths involving COVID-19 continued to decrease

Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 3 July 2020

As COVID-19 was not a cause of death prior to 2020, any deaths involving COVID-19 appear in the counts above the five-year average and are counted as excess deaths. This means that when the number of deaths involving COVID-19 is higher than the number of excess deaths, the bar indicating deaths not involving COVID-19 makes a negative contribution.

Between Weeks 1 and 12, 138,916 deaths were registered, which was 4,822 fewer than the five-year average for these weeks. However, between Weeks 13 and 27, 205,830 deaths were registered, which was 58,830 more than the five-year average. A continuation of the decreasing trend in excess deaths involving COVID-19 was shown in Week 27 (Figure 2). Detailed analysis on non-COVID-19 related deaths is available in Analysis of death registrations not involving coronavirus (COVID-19).

Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available), the number of deaths up to 3 July 2020 was 344,717, which is 53,979 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 3 July 2020, 50,548 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; 14.7% of all deaths in England and Wales.

Looking at the year-to-date for England and Wales separately, the number of deaths for England was 323,905, which is 52,242 (19.2%) more than the five-year average. Of these, 48,012 deaths (14.8%) mentioned COVID-19. In Wales, the number of deaths up to 3 July was 20,294, which is 2,057 (11.3%) more than the five-year average; of these, 2,462 deaths (12.1%) mentioned COVID-19.

Figure 3: Over a fifth of all deaths involving COVID-19 were of people aged 90 years and over in Week 27

Deaths by age group, England and Wales, week ending 3 July 2020

In Week 27, the number of deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) in England and Wales decreased or remained similar in all age-groups aged 20 to 24 years and over, except age group 45 to 49 years (4 deaths more) compared with Week 26. The number of deaths involving COVID-19 remained higher in the older age groups than in younger age groups (Figure 3). The highest proportions of deaths involving COVID-19 were of people aged 80 to 84 years, 85 to 89 years, and 90 years and over, where 7.9%, 7.2% and 6.3% of deaths involved COVID-19, respectively.

Looking at the year-to-date, for most age groups, there have been more deaths involving COVID-19 in males than in females (Figure 4). Across Weeks 1 to 27 of 2020, 55.0% of all deaths involving COVID-19 were males. However, there were more deaths in females aged 85 years and over (11,559) than males (9,806). This could be because the over-85 years female population (939,000) is larger than the over-85 male population (564,000) in England and Wales.

Figure 5: The number of deaths involving COVID-19 was highest in the North West for the seventh consecutive week

Deaths by regions in England, and Wales, week ending 3 July 2020

Figure 6: The number of deaths involving COVID-19 registered across all English regions, was the lowest in the Southwest for the seventh consecutive week.

Deaths by regions in England, and Wales, week ending 3 July 2020

In Week 27 (week ending 3 July 2020), there were 35 deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) registered in Wales. Out of the English regions, the North West had the largest number of deaths involving COVID-19 (100 deaths) as well as the highest proportion of deaths involving COVID-19, 8.2% of all deaths. More detailed geographical analysis between 1 March and 31 May 2020 can be found in our Deaths involving COVID-19 by local area and socioeconomic deprivation release.

The number of deaths was highest in the South East (1,454 deaths), this was 3.3% higher than the five-year average for the region. The North West and East Midlands had the highest percentages of deaths above the five-year average in Week 27 (7.1% and 7.0% respectively). The South West had the lowest percentage of deaths below the five-year average in Week 27.

The number of deaths registered in Week 27 was similar to, or lower than, the five-year average in six of nine English regions . In Wales, the number of deaths registered in Week 27 was 5.2% higher than the five-year average (Table 1).

The year-to-date analysis shows that, of deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) in England and Wales up to Week 27 (week ending 3 July 2020), 63.5% (32,081 deaths) occurred in hospital, with the remainder occurring in care homes (15,024 deaths), private homes (2,322 deaths), hospices (705 deaths), other communal establishments (227 deaths) and elsewhere (189 deaths).

The proportion of deaths from all causes that occurred in care homes continued to decrease, to 20.1% in Week 27. The proportion of care home deaths that involved COVID-19 also decreased; 9.2% of all deaths in care homes involved COVID-19 in Week 27, compared with 10.5% in Week 26.

Between Week 26 and Week 27, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased in homes, hospices and other communal establishments by 5, 7 and 2 respectively. The proportion of deaths involving COVID-19 occurring in hospitals decreased to 58.1% in Week 27 (compared with 62.2% in Week 26). The proportion of deaths occurring in care homes increased (from 31.5% in Week 26 to 31.8% in Week 27).

Figure 8: The number of excess deaths decreased in all settings

Number of excess deaths by place of death between Week 1 and Week 27 of 2020 by place of occurrence, England and Wales

In Week 27, the number of excess deaths decreased in all settings compared with Week 26. Deaths in most settings were below the five-year average. This includes care homes where deaths were lower than the five-year average for the third week running since Week 11 (week ending 13 March 2020). The only setting with excess deaths (above the five-year average) was private homes (755 deaths in Week 27, fewer than the 745 excess deaths at home seen in Week 26).

Figure 9 is based on date of death for deaths registered up to 11 July 2020, rather than date of registration. This means as more deaths are registered, deaths per day are likely to increase, especially later dates. Looking at the average number of deaths in Week 27 , deaths occurring in hospitals have accounted for 60.9% of deaths, and care homes have accounted for 29.7% of all deaths involving COVID-19, this may change as more deaths are registered. Although we expect numbers of deaths to increase as more are registered, it currently appears that deaths per day are decreasing.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is working with the Care Quality Commission (CQC) and Public Health England to better understand deaths that are occurring in care homes. From 28 April, we have published counts of deaths reported by care home operators to CQC involving COVID-19. More information can be found in our comparisons article.

Across the UK, there were 10,393 deaths (all causes) registered in Week 27 (ending 3 July 2020), of which 560 deaths involved the coronavirus (COVID-19). This was 74 fewer deaths than the UK five-year average.

There were 5 deaths involving COVID-19 in the UK in Week 11 (ending 13 March); this increased to 9,495 deaths registered in Week 16 (ending 17 April) but has fallen to 560 deaths registered in Week 27. In Week 27, England had the highest number of deaths involving COVID-19 with 497 deaths, followed by Wales with 35 deaths, Scotland with 17 deaths and Northern Ireland with 11 deaths.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths are those deaths registered in England and Wales in the stated week where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death. A doctor can certify the involvement of COVID-19 based on symptoms and clinical findings – a positive test result is not required.

Definitions of COVID-19 for deaths in Scotland and Northern Ireland are similar to England and Wales.

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Mortality statistics in England and Wales QMI.

To meet user needs, we publish very timely but provisional counts of death registrations in England and Wales in our Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional dataset. These are presented by sex, age group and regions (within England) as well as for Wales as a whole. To allow time for registration and processing, these figures are published 11 days after the week ends. Because of the rapidly changing situation, in this bulletin we have also given provisional updated totals based on the latest available death registrations, up to 11 July 2020.

Because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, our regular weekly deaths release now provides a separate breakdown of the numbers of deaths involving COVID-19: that is, where COVID-19 or suspected COVID-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, including in combination with other health conditions. If a death certificate mentions COVID-19 it will not always be the main cause of death but may be a contributory factor. This new bulletin summarises the latest weekly information and will be updated each week during the pandemic.

These figures are different from the daily surveillance figures on COVID-19 deaths published by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) on the GOV.UK website, for the UK as a whole and constituent countries. Figures in this report are derived from the formal process of death registration and may include cases where the doctor completing the death certificate diagnosed possible cases of COVID-19, for example, where this was based on relevant symptoms but no test for the virus was conducted.

In contrast to the GOV.UK figures, we include only deaths registered in England and Wales, which is the legal remit of the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Table 1 provides an overview of the differences in definitions between sources.

From 29 April 2020, DHSC started to publish as their daily announced figures on deaths from COVID-19 for the UK, a new series that uses improved data for England produced by Public Health England (PHE). These figures provide a count of all deaths where a positive test for COVID-19 has been confirmed, wherever that death has taken place, a change from previously reporting only confirmed COVID-19 deaths in hospitals. Figures for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have already begun to include deaths outside hospitals, so this change ensured that the UK-wide series has a shared and common definitional coverage. A statement was published by the ONS, which provides more detail of the changes.

We will publish accompanying articles periodically, giving enhanced information such as age-standardised and age-specific mortality rates for recent time periods and breakdowns of deaths involving COVID-19 by associated pre-existing health conditions.

There is usually a delay of at least five days between occurrence and registration. More information on this issue can be found in our impact of registration delays release.

Our User guide to mortality statistics provides further information on data quality, legislation and procedures relating to mortality and includes a glossary of terms.

Figures are based on the date the death was registered, not when it occurred. There is usually a delay of at least five days between occurrence and registration. More information on this issue can be found in our Impact of registration delays release.