Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: week ending 30 October 2020

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19), by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available.

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10 November 2020 11:55

ONS estimates of deaths involving COVID-19 in Section 7: Comparison of weekly death occurrences in England and Wales were initially incorrect. These have now been updated; we apologise for any inconvenience caused.

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Cyswllt:
Email Sarah Caul

Dyddiad y datganiad:
10 November 2020

Cyhoeddiad nesaf:
17 November 2020

1. Main points

  • The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 30 October 2020 (Week 44) was 10,887; this was 148 more deaths than in Week 43.
  • In Week 44, the number of deaths registered was 10.1% above the five-year average (996 deaths higher).
  • Of the deaths registered in Week 44, 1,379 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, accounting for 12.7% of all deaths in England and Wales; this is an increase of 401 deaths compared with Week 43 (when there were 978 deaths involving COVID-19, accounting for 9.1% of all deaths).
  • Of the 1,379 deaths that involved COVID-19, 1,196 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (86.7%); of the 1,922 deaths that involved Influenza and Pneumonia, 289 had this recorded as the underlying cause (15.0%).
  • The number of deaths in hospitals was above the five-year average in Week 44 for the second week in a row (244 more deaths); the number of deaths in private homes was also above the five-year average (871 more deaths), but deaths in care homes were below the five-year average (104 fewer deaths).
  • In England, the total number of deaths increased from 10,070 (Week 43) to 10,166 (Week 44); London was the only English region to have fewer overall deaths than the five-year average.
  • Overall, there were 1,258 deaths involving COVID-19 in England in Week 44; the number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased in all of the English regions, with the North West having the largest number (445 deaths).
  • In Wales, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased from 65 deaths (Week 43) to 121 deaths (Week 44), while the total number of deaths in Week 44 was 96 deaths higher than the five-year average.
  • Based on a statistical model that allows for the time taken for deaths to be registered, we estimate that the number of deaths actually occurring (rather than registered) in Week 44 in England and Wales was between 9,611 and 11,929.
  • The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 30 October 2020 (Week 44) was 12,501, which was 1,274 deaths higher than the five-year average and 209 deaths more than Week 43; of the deaths registered in the UK in Week 44, 1,597 deaths involved COVID-19, 471 deaths higher than in Week 43.    
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2. Deaths registered by week

Figure 1: Deaths from all causes remain above the five-year average in England and in Wales

Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 30 October 2020

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Notes:

  1. Figures exclude deaths of non-residents.
  2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
  3. All figures for 2020 are provisional.
  4. The number of deaths registered in Weeks 19, 20, 22, 23, 36 and 37 were impacted by the Early May, Late May and August Bank Holidays (Friday 8 May 2020 in Week 19, Monday 25 May 2020 in Week 22 and Monday 31 August 2020); the impact of the Early May Bank Holiday was analysed in our Week 20 bulletin.

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The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales increased from 10,739 in Week 43 (week ending 23 October 2020) to 10,887 in Week 44 (week ending 30 October 2020). The number of deaths was 10.1% above the five-year average (996 deaths higher).

In England, the number of deaths increased from 10,070 in Week 43 to 10,166 in Week 44, which was 918 deaths (9.9%) above the Week 44 five-year average (Figure 1).

In Wales, the number of deaths increased from 661 in Week 43 to 712 in Week 44, which was 96 deaths (15.6%) higher than the five-year average (Figure 1).

Figure 2: The number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased for the eighth consecutive week

Deaths involving and due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) and Influenza and Pneumonia, England and Wales, deaths registered in 2020

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Notes:

  1. Figures include deaths of non-residents.
  2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
  3. All figures for 2020 are provisional.
  4. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are as follows: coronavirus (COVID-19) (U07.1 and U07.2) and Influenza and Pneumonia (J09 to J18).
  5. A death can be registered with both COVID-19 and Influenza and Pneumonia mentioned on the death certificate. Deaths where both were mentioned have been counted in both categories.
  6. We use the term “due to COVID-19” or “due to Influenza and Pneumonia” when referring only to deaths where that illness was recorded as the underlying cause of death. We use the term “involving COVID-19” or “involving Influenza and Pneumonia” when referring to deaths that had that illness mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, whether as an underlying cause or not.
  7. The number of deaths registered in Weeks 19, 20, 22, 23, 36 and 37 were impacted by the Early May, Late May and August Bank Holidays (Friday 8 May 2020 in Week 19, Monday 25 May 2020 in Week 22 and Monday 31 August 2020); the impact of the Early May Bank Holiday was analysed in our Week 20 bulletin.

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The number of death registrations in England and Wales involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) increased by 401 deaths, from 978 in Week 43 to 1,379 in Week 44 (a 41.0% increase). Of all deaths registered in Week 44, 12.7% mentioned COVID-19 (compared with 9.1% in Week 43).

In England, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 was 1,258, 12.4% of all deaths. In Wales, 121 deaths involved COVID-19, 17.0% of all deaths.

Of the 1,379 deaths that involved COVID-19, 1,196 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (86.7%, Figure 2). Of the 1,922 deaths that involved Influenza and Pneumonia, 289 had that coded as the underlying cause (15.0%). Deaths that involved both COVID-19 and Influenza and Pneumonia have been included in both categories for consistency when comparing with the underlying cause of death. Influenza and Pneumonia has been included for comparison, as a well-understood cause of death involving respiratory infection that is likely to have somewhat similar risk factors to COVID-19. More detailed analysis is available in our Deaths due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia release.

We have developed an experimental statistical model to estimate the number of deaths that actually occurred in a given week, rather than the number registered. For Week 43, we estimate that 10,949 deaths occurred in England and Wales, with a 95% confidence interval of 10,645 to 11,324. Based on an incomplete count of registrations in Week 44, we estimate that the number of deaths occurring in Week 44 is likely to be 10,658 (a decrease of 2.7%) with a 95% confidence interval of 9,611 to 11,929. This estimate reflects that although there were more deaths registered in Week 44 than Week 43, a higher proportion of the Week 44 registrations occurred in previous weeks. It is not yet clear whether this reflects an increase in the average time for deaths to be registered or a decrease in death occurrences.

These are provisional estimates and assume that the pattern of occurrences can be predicted based on experience in previous years. The estimate for the most recent week always has a wider margin of error than for earlier weeks, so it should be treated with caution.

Figure 3: Deaths not involving COVID-19 were below the five-year average in week 44

Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 30 October 2020

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Notes:

  1. Figures include deaths of non-residents.
  2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
  3. All figures for 2020 are provisional.
  4. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition (ICD-10) definitions are as follows: coronavirus (COVID-19) (U07.1 and U07.2) and Influenza and Pneumonia (J09 to J18).
  5. A death can be registered with both COVID-19 and Influenza and Pneumonia mentioned on the death certificate. Deaths where both were mentioned have been counted in both categories.
  6. We use the term “due to COVID-19” or “due to Influenza and Pneumonia” when referring only to deaths where that illness was recorded as the underlying cause of death. We use the term “involving COVID-19” or “involving Influenza and Pneumonia” when referring to deaths that had that illness mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, whether as an underlying cause or not.
  7. The numbers of deaths registered in Weeks 19, 20, 22, 23, 36 and 37 were impacted by the Early May, Late May and August Bank Holidays (Friday 8 May 2020 in Week 19, Monday 25 May 2020 in Week 22 and Monday 31 August 2020 in Week 36); the impact of the Early May Bank Holiday was analysed in our Week 20 bulletin.

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Between Weeks 1 and 12, 138,916 deaths were registered, which was 4,822 fewer than the five-year average for these weeks. However, between Weeks 13 and 44, 366,946 deaths were registered, which was 61,920 more than the five-year average.

Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available), the number of deaths up to 30 October 2020 was 505,834, which is 56,620 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 30 October, 56,698 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; this is 11.2% of all deaths in England and Wales. Looking at the year-to-date for England and Wales separately, the number of deaths in England was 474,637, which is 55,310 (13.2%) more than the five-year average. Of these, 53,739 (11.3%) mentioned COVID-19. In Wales, the number of deaths up to 30 October 2020 was 30,486, which is 2,345 (8.3%) more than the five-year average; of these, 2,884 deaths (9.5%) mentioned COVID-19.

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3. Deaths registered by age group

In Week 44, the number of deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) in England and Wales increased or remained similar across all age groups compared with Week 43. The biggest increase was seen in those aged between 85 and 89 years (93 more deaths). The number of deaths involving COVID-19 remained higher in the older age groups, with those aged 75 years and over accounting for the highest number of deaths involving COVID-19 (74.4%).

Looking at the year-to-date, for most age groups there have been more deaths involving COVID-19 in males than in females (Figure 4). Across Weeks 1 to 44 of 2020, 55.3% of all deaths involving COVID-19 were in males. However, there were more deaths in females aged 85 years and over (12,793) than males aged 85 years and over (10,952). This could be because the over-85-years female population (939,000) is larger than the over-85-years male population (564,000) in England and Wales.

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4. Deaths by region in England and Wales

Figure 5: The number of deaths in Week 44 was higher than the five-year average in eight of the nine English regions and Wales

Number of deaths in Wales and regions in England, registered between 28 December 2019 and 30 October 2020

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Notes:

  1. Based on area of usual residence. Geographic boundaries are based on the most up-to-date information available at the time of publication.
  2. Figures exclude deaths of non-residents.
  3. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
  4. All figures for 2020 are provisional.
  5. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition (ICD-10) definitions are as follows: coronavirus (COVID-19) (U07.1 and U07.2).

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In Week 44 (week ending 30 October 2020), there were 121 deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) registered in Wales (compared with 65 deaths in Week 43, an 86.2% increase). Out of the English regions, the North West continued to have the largest number of deaths involving COVID-19 (445 deaths). The North West also had the highest proportion of deaths involving COVID-19, with more than a quarter of all deaths registered in Week 44 involving COVID-19 (25.4%). Deaths involving COVID-19 increased in Week 44 in all English regions and Wales, with the largest increase seen in the North West (120 more deaths). More detailed geographic analysis between 1 March and 31 July 2020 can be found in our Deaths involving COVID-19 by local area and socioeconomic deprivation release.

The number of deaths registered in Week 44 was higher than the five-year average in all English regions except London (4.3% lower). In Wales, the number of deaths registered in Week 44 was 15.6% (96 deaths) above the five-year average (Table 1).

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5. Deaths registered by place of occurrence

The year-to-date analysis shows that, of deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) up to Week 44 (week ending 30 October 2020), 64.5% (36,597 deaths) occurred in hospital, with the remainder occurring in care homes (16,140 deaths), private homes (2,723 deaths), hospices (787 deaths), other communal establishments (236 deaths) and elsewhere (215 deaths).

Between Weeks 43 and 44, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased in hospitals (346 deaths higher), care homes (15 deaths higher) and private homes (32 deaths higher). Deaths involving COVID-19 in hospitals as a proportion of all deaths in hospitals increased from 17.0% in Week 43 to 23.4% in Week 44. Deaths involving COVID-19 in care homes as a proportion of all deaths in care homes increased from 7.1% in Week 43 to 7.9% in Week 44. Detailed analysis on deaths of care home residents is available in Deaths involving COVID-19 in the care sector, England and Wales: deaths occurring up to 12 June 2020 and registered up to 20 June 2020.

As well as Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, the Care Quality Commission (CQC) provides numbers of deaths involving COVID-19 in care homes in England that are based on the date the death was notified to the CQC. From 10 April (the first day when data were collected using the CQC’s new method of identifying deaths involving COVID-19) to 6 November 2020, there were 15,318 deaths of residents in care homes involving COVID-19. Of these deaths, 299 were notified in the week up to 6 November. More information on the data provided by the CQC can be found in our joint transparency statement.

In Wales, the Welsh Government publishes the number of deaths of care home residents involving COVID-19 notified to the Care Inspectorate Wales (CIW). Between 1 March and 23 October 2020, there were 763 deaths of residents in care homes involving COVID-19.

More information on how these numbers have compared throughout the pandemic can be found in our previous Comparison of weekly death occurrences in England and Wales release.

Figure 6: Deaths in private homes and hospitals were above the five-year average in Week 44

Number of excess deaths by place of occurrence, England and Wales, registered between 7 March 2020 and 30 October 2020

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Notes:

  1. Based on area of usual residence. Geographic boundaries and communal establishments are based on the most up-to-date information available.
  2. Figures include deaths of non-residents.
  3. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
  4. All figures for 2020 are provisional.
  5. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition (ICD-10) definitions are as follows: coronavirus (COVID-19) (U07.1 and U07.2).
  6. "Other" includes deaths in communal establishments other than hospitals and care homes, in hospices, and that occurred "elsewhere". More information on the place of death definitions used is available in the accompanying dataset.

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In Week 44, the numbers of deaths in private homes and hospitals were above the five-year average (871 and 244 deaths respectively), while the number of deaths in care homes and other locations were below the five-year average (104 and 18 deaths lower respectively) (Figure 6).

Looking in more detail at deaths in private homes in Week 44, males accounted for 487 excess deaths, compared with 387 for females. Overall, 73.7% of the excess deaths in private homes were of those aged 70 years and over (644 excess deaths). The Deaths in private homes release provides analysis for deaths registered from 28 December 2019 to 11 September 2020. In addition, more detailed analysis of excess deaths in England is produced by Public Health England (PHE) on a weekly basis.

Figure 7 is based on date of death for deaths registered up to 7 November 2020, rather than date of registration. As more deaths are registered, deaths per day are likely to increase, especially for later dates. Looking at the number of deaths that occurred in Week 44, 81.7% of deaths occurred in hospitals, and care homes accounted for 12.8% of all deaths involving COVID-19; this may change as more deaths are registered.

A death of a man aged 80 to 84 years was registered in the week ending 4 September 2020 (Week 36) that occurred in the week ending 31 January 2020 (Week 5). This is the earliest known death involving COVID-19 in the UK. There was also a death of a man aged 55 to 59 years registered in the week ending 21 August 2020 (Week 34) that occurred in the week ending 7 February (Week 6) and a death of a female aged 30 to 34 years that was registered by 24 October 2020 and occurred in the week ending 28 February 2020 (Week 9).  

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6. Deaths registered in the UK

Across the UK, there were 12,501 deaths (all causes) registered in Week 44 (week ending 30 October 2020), which was 1,274 deaths higher than the UK five-year average and 209 more deaths than in Week 43. Of these deaths, 1,597 involved the coronavirus (COVID-19), 471 deaths higher than in Week 43 (a 41.8% increase).

In Week 44, England had the highest number of deaths involving COVID-19 with 1,258 deaths, followed by Scotland with 167 deaths, Wales with 121 deaths and Northern Ireland with 51 deaths.

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7. Comparison of weekly death occurrences in England and Wales

We previously published this section as a separate article on the Office for National Statistics (ONS) website, which provided a more thorough description of the differences between different data sources. This section will look at the number of deaths by date of death produced by the ONS compared with death notifications reported by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC). For Wales, we can also compare the reconciled DHSC data by date of death released by Public Health Wales (PHW).

On 12 August 2020, Public Health England (PHE) revised their data series to include two measures: deaths of positively tested individuals where the death occurred within 28 days and deaths within 60 days of a positive test. More information on these changes can be found in their technical summary.

In England, including deaths that occurred up to 30 October 2020 but were registered up to 7 November 2020, of those we have processed so far, the number involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) was 54,395.

The comparative number of death notifications reported by the DHSC on GOV.UK (based on data from PHE) where the deaths occurred within 28 days of testing was 41,132 and the number of deaths by date of death showed 41,773.

In Wales, including deaths that occurred up to 30 October 2020 but were registered up 7 November 2020, of those we have processed so far, the number involving COVID-19 was 2,938. The comparative number of death notifications reported by the DHSC on GOV.UK (based on data from PHW) where the death occurred within 28 days of testing was 1,872 and the number of deaths by date of death was 1,927 deaths.

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8. Deaths data

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional
Dataset | Released 10 November 2020
Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available. Includes data on coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths.

Death registrations and occurrences by local authority and health board
Dataset | Released 10 November 2020
Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving COVID-19, by local authority, health board and place of death in the latest weeks for which data are available.

Number of deaths in care homes notified to the Care Quality Commission, England
Dataset | Released 10 November 2020
Provisional counts of deaths in care homes caused by COVID-19 by local authority. Published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Care Quality Commission (CQC).

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9. Glossary

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths are those deaths registered in England and Wales in the stated week where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. A doctor can certify the involvement of COVID-19 based on symptoms and clinical findings – a positive test result is not required. Definitions of COVID-19 for deaths in Scotland and Northern Ireland are similar to England and Wales.

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10. Measuring the data

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Mortality statistics in England and Wales QMI.

To meet user needs, we publish very timely but provisional counts of death registrations in England and Wales in our Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional dataset. These are presented by sex, age group and regions (within England) as well as for Wales as a whole. To allow time for registration and processing, these figures are published 11 days after the week ends. Because of the rapidly changing situation, in this bulletin we have also given provisional updated totals based on the latest available death registrations, up to 31 October 2020.

Because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, our regular weekly deaths release now provides a separate breakdown of the number of deaths involving COVID-19: that is, where COVID-19 or suspected COVID-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, including in combination with other health conditions. If a death certificate mentions COVID-19, it will not always be the main cause of death but may be a contributory factor. This bulletin summarises the latest weekly information and will be updated each week during the pandemic.

From the bulletin dated 3 November, we have added two additional analyses.

Previously, we gave a breakdown of deaths involving COVID-19 into those where COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death (“due to COVID-19”) and those where it was a contributory factor (“involving COVID-19”) in the monthly mortality analysis; because of high public interest, this distinction is now shown in Figure 2 of the weekly bulletin.

This bulletin is based mainly on the date deaths are registered, not the date of death, because of the time taken for a death to be registered. Deaths in England and Wales are normally registered within five days, but there can be a considerably longer delay in some circumstances, particularly when the death is referred to a coroner. We have developed a statistical model to estimate the number of deaths likely to have occurred in each week, based on previous experience of the pattern of registration delays, including the effects of bank holidays. The method is described in the article, Predicting total weekly death occurrences in England and Wales: methodology, and the results are shown in the tab, “Estimated total deaths 2020”, of the accompanying dataset.

These figures are different from the daily surveillance figures on COVID-19 deaths published by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) on the GOV.UK website, for the UK as a whole and its constituent countries. Figures in this report are derived from the formal process of death registration and may include cases where the doctor completing the death certificate diagnosed possible cases of COVID-19, for example, where this was based on relevant symptoms but no test for the virus was conducted.

From 29 April 2020, the DHSC started to publish as their daily announced figures on deaths from COVID-19 for the UK a new series that uses improved data for England produced by Public Health England (PHE). These figures provide a count of all deaths where a positive test for COVID-19 has been confirmed, wherever that death has taken place, a change from previously reporting only confirmed COVID-19 deaths in hospitals. Figures for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland had already begun to include deaths outside hospitals, so this change ensured that the UK-wide series had a shared and common definitional coverage. A statement was published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which provides more detail of the changes.

On 12 August 2020, the PHE data series was revised to include two measures: deaths of positively tested individuals where the death occurred within 28 days and deaths within 60 days of a positive test. More information on these changes can be found in their technical summary (PDF, 854KB).

In contrast to the GOV.UK figures, we include only deaths registered in England and Wales, which is the legal remit of the ONS. Tables 2 and 3 provide an overview of the differences in definitions between sources.

We will publish accompanying articles periodically, giving enhanced information such as age-standardised and age-specific mortality rates for recent time periods and breakdowns of deaths involving COVID-19 by associated pre-existing health conditions.

There is usually a delay of at least five days between occurrence and registration. More information on this issue can be found in our impact of registration delays release.

Our User guide to mortality statistics provides further information on data quality, legislation and procedures relating to mortality and includes a glossary of terms.

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11. Strengths and limitations

Figures are based on the date the death was registered, not when it occurred. There is usually a delay of at least five days between occurrence and registration. More information on this issue can be found in our impact of registration delays release.

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Manylion cyswllt ar gyfer y Bwletin ystadegol

Sarah Caul
health.data@ons.gov.uk
Ffôn: +44 (0)1329 444110