Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: week ending 18 June 2021

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19), by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available.

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Cyswllt:
Email Sarah Caul

Dyddiad y datganiad:
29 June 2021

Cyhoeddiad nesaf:
6 July 2021

1. Main points

  • There were 9,459 deaths in England and Wales registered in the week ending 18 June 2021 (Week 24); this was 745 fewer deaths than the previous week (Week 23) and 0.4% above the five-year average (42 more deaths).
  • The number of deaths registered in England in the week ending 18 June 2021 (Week 24) was 8,874; this was 680 fewer deaths than the previous week (Week 23) and 0.8% above the five-year average (71 more deaths).
  • The number of deaths registered in Wales in the week ending 18 June 2021 (Week 24) was 573; this was 63 fewer deaths than the previous week (Week 23) and 2.6% below the five-year average (15 fewer deaths).
  • Of the deaths registered in Week 24 in England and Wales, 102 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, accounting for 1.1% of all deaths; this was an increase compared with Week 23 (84 deaths).
  • The number of deaths involving COVID-19 in England increased to 102 in Week 24 compared with 83 in Week 23; for Wales, deaths decreased to 0 in Week 24 compared with 1 in Week 23, this is the first week since the beginning of the pandemic that Wales has registered 0 deaths involving COVID-19.
  • The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 18 June 2021 was 10,818, which was 115 more than the five-year average; of deaths registered in the UK in Week 24, 116 involved COVID-19, that is, 23 more than in Week 23.
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2. Deaths registered by week

Figure 1: The number of deaths registered was above the five-year average for Week 24 in England but below the five-year average for Wales

Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 18 June 2021

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Notes:
  1. Figures exclude deaths of non-residents.
  2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
  3. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.
  4. The number of deaths registered in a week are affected when bank holidays occur.
  5. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.
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The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales decreased from 10,204 in Week 23 (week ending 11 June 2021) to 9,459 in Week 24 (week ending 18 June 2021). The number of deaths was 0.4% above the five-year average (42 more deaths).

In England, the number of deaths decreased from 9,554 in Week 23 to 8,874 in Week 24, which was 71 more deaths (0.8% higher) than the Week 24 five-year average (Figure 1). Of these, 102 deaths involved coronavirus (COVID-19) in Week 24, a 22.9% increase compared with Week 23 (83 deaths). Of all deaths registered in Week 24 in England, 1.1% mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate.

In Wales, the number of deaths decreased from 636 in Week 23 to 573 in Week 24, which was 15 fewer deaths than the Week 24 five-year average (Figure 1). Of these, none involved COVID-19 in Week 24, compared with 1 death in Week 23. Therefore, of all deaths registered in Week 24 in Wales, 0.0% mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate.

Figure 2: The number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased in Week 24

Deaths involving and due to COVID-19 and influenza and pneumonia, England and Wales, deaths registered in 2020 and 2021

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Notes:
  1. Figures include deaths of non-residents.
  2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
  3. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.
  4. The number of deaths registered in a week are affected when bank holidays occur.
  5. The average of 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.
  6. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are as follows: coronavirus (COVID-19) (U07.1, U07.2, U09.9 and U10.9) and influenza and pneumonia (J09 to J18).
  7. A death can be registered with both COVID-19 and influenza and pneumonia mentioned on the death certificate. Deaths where both were mentioned have been counted in both categories.
  8. We use the term "due to COVID-19" or "due to influenza and pneumonia" when referring only to deaths where that illness was recorded as the underlying cause of death. We use the term "involving COVID-19" or "involving influenza and pneumonia" when referring to deaths that had that illness mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, whether as an underlying cause or not.
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Of the 102 deaths in England and Wales that involved COVID-19, 74 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (72.5%, Figure 2). Of the 1,069 deaths that involved influenza and pneumonia, 264 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (24.7%).

Deaths that involved both COVID-19, and influenza and pneumonia, have been included in both categories for consistency when comparing with the underlying cause of death.

We have developed an experimental statistical model to estimate the number of deaths that actually occurred in a given week, rather than the number registered. For Week 24, we estimate that 8,660 deaths occurred in England and Wales, with a 95% confidence interval of 7,718 to 9,805. This is 479 fewer deaths than the mean for the period 2015 to 2019 in Week 24, and a decrease of 290 deaths from the Week 23 2021 estimate of 8,950 (confidence interval: 8,678 to 9,286).

These are provisional estimates that assume that the pattern of occurrences can be predicted based on experience in previous years. The estimate for the most recent week always has a wider margin of error than for earlier weeks, so it should be treated with caution.

Figure 3: Total deaths from all causes were above the five-year average in Week 24

Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 18 June 2021

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Notes:
  1. Figures include deaths of non-residents.
  2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
  3. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.
  4. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are available in the Measuring the data section.
  5. The number of deaths registered in a week are affected when bank holidays occur.
  6. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.
Download this chart

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Analysis in this section includes deaths from Week 11 of 2020 (week ending 13 March 2020, the week of the first registration of a death involving COVID-19) through to Week 24 of 2021 (week ending 18 June 2021), to ensure full coverage of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

Using the most up-to-date data we have available, the number of deaths from the week ending 13 March 2020 up to 18 June 2021 was 784,109 in England and Wales. Of these, 140,423 (17.9%) mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate. During this period, the number of excess deaths above the five-year average was 104,128 deaths.

In England, the number of deaths between the weeks ending 13 March 2020 and 18 June 2021 was 735,439; of these, 132,340 deaths (18.0%) mentioned COVID-19. This was 100,237 deaths above the five-year average.

In Wales, the number of deaths for the same period was 47,714; of these, 7,899 deaths (16.6%) mentioned COVID-19. This was 4,906 deaths above the five-year average.

More about coronavirus

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3. Deaths registered by age group

In Week 24 (week ending 18 June 2021), the number of deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) in England and Wales decreased or was similar in the majority of the five-year age groups compared with Week 23.

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4. Deaths by region in England and Wales

Figure 5: The number of deaths in Week 24 was lower than the five-year average in Wales and three of the English regions

Number of deaths in Wales and regions of England, registered between 28 December 2019 and 18 June 2021

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Notes:
  1. Based on area of usual residence. Geographical boundaries are based on the most up-to-date information available at the time of publication.
  2. Figures exclude deaths of non-residents.
  3. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
  4. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.
  5. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are available in the Measuring the data section.
  6. The number of deaths registered in a week are affected when bank holidays occur.
  7. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.
Download this chart

.xlsx

In Week 24 (week ending 18 June 2021), the total number of deaths registered was lower than the five-year average in Wales (2.6% fewer deaths) but higher than the five-year average in the majority of the English regions (Figure 5). The English regions lower than the five-year average were the West Midlands (5.1% fewer deaths), East of England (1.8% fewer deaths) and London (5.6% fewer deaths).

Deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) decreased only in Wales (1 fewer death) compared with Week 23, while deaths involving COVID-19 increased in the North West, Yorkshire and The Humber, East Midlands, West Midlands and the South East (with no change in the remaining regions). The largest increase was reported in the North West (7 more deaths). More detailed geographical analysis can be found in our Monthly mortality analysis release.

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5. Deaths registered by place of occurrence

Between Weeks 23 and 24, the number of deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) increased in private homes (4 more), hospitals (10 more), care homes (3 more) and elsewhere (1 more). There was no change in the number of deaths involving COVID-19 in hospices and other communal establishments. Deaths involving COVID-19 in hospitals as a proportion of all deaths in hospitals increased to 1.8% in Week 24 (1.4% in Week 23). Deaths involving COVID-19 in care homes accounted for 0.9% of all deaths in care homes.

Detailed analysis on deaths of care home residents is available in Deaths involving COVID-19 in the care sector, England and Wales: deaths registered between week ending 20 March 2020 and week ending 2 April 2021.

From Week 1 2021 (week ending 8 January 2021) onwards, we have published a dataset of weekly deaths of care home residents.

As well as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, the Care Quality Commission (CQC) provides numbers of deaths involving COVID-19 in care homes in England that are based on the date the death was notified to the CQC. From 10 April 2020 (the first day when data were collected using the CQC’s new method of identifying deaths involving COVID-19) to 25 June 2021, there were 29,447 deaths of residents in care homes involving COVID-19. Of these deaths, 4 were notified in the week up to 25 June 2021. More information on the data provided by the CQC can be found in our joint transparency statement.

In Wales, the Welsh Government publishes the number of deaths of care home residents involving COVID-19 notified to the Care Inspectorate Wales (CIW). Between 1 March 2020 and 16 June 2021, there were 1,922 deaths of residents in care homes involving COVID-19.

Figure 6: Deaths in Week 24 were above the five-year average in private homes, but below the five-year average in hospitals, care homes and other settings

Number of excess deaths by place of occurrence, England and Wales, registered between 7 March 2020 and 18 June 2021

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Notes:
  1. Based on area of usual residence. Geographical boundaries and communal establishments are based on the most up-to-date information available.
  2. Figures include deaths of non-residents.
  3. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
  4. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.
  5. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are available in the Measuring the data section.
  6. "Other" includes deaths in communal establishments other than hospitals and care homes, in hospices, and that occurred "elsewhere". More information on the place of death definitions used is available in the accompanying dataset.
  7. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.
Download this chart

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In Week 24, the number of deaths in private homes was 31.3% above the five-year average (714 excess deaths). Deaths within care homes were 9.5% below the five-year average (183 deaths fewer), deaths in hospitals were 10.0% below the five-year average (439 deaths fewer) and deaths in other settings were 5.8% below the five-year average (47 deaths fewer).

In addition, more detailed analysis of excess deaths in England is produced by Public Health England (PHE) on a weekly basis.

Figure 7 is based on date of death for deaths registered up to 26 June 2021, rather than date of registration. As more deaths are registered, deaths per day are likely to increase, especially for later dates. Looking at the number of deaths involving COVID-19 that occurred in Week 24, 73.8% of deaths occurred in hospitals and 11.5% occurred in care homes; this may change as more deaths are registered.

The earliest known death involving COVID-19 occurred in the week ending 31 January 2020 (Week 5).

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6. Deaths registered in the UK

Across the UK, there were 10,818 deaths (all causes) registered in Week 24 (week ending 18 June 2021), which was 115 more deaths than the UK five-year average, and 801 fewer deaths than in Week 23 (week ending 11 June 2021).

Using the most up-to-date data we have available, from the week ending 13 March 2020 up to 18 June 2021, the number of deaths was 888,446. The number of deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) was 152,606 and the number of excess deaths above the five-year average was 115,861.

Deaths were above the five-year average in England (71 more deaths), Scotland (46 more deaths) and Northern Ireland (27 more deaths). The number of deaths in Wales was below the five-year average in Week 24. Of all UK deaths, 116 involved COVID-19, 23 more deaths than in Week 23 (24.7% increase) (Figure 8).

In Week 24, England had the highest number of deaths involving COVID-19 with 102 deaths, followed by Scotland (13 deaths), Northern Ireland (1 death) and Wales (0 deaths).

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7. Comparison of weekly deaths occurrences in England and Wales

This section will look at the number of deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) by date of death produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) compared with death notifications reported on the GOV.UK Coronavirus in the UK dashboard. For Wales, we can also compare the data by date of death released by Public Health Wales (PHW).

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8. Deaths data

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional
Dataset | Released 29 June 2021
Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available. Includes data on coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths.

Death registrations and occurrences by local authority and health board
Dataset | Released 29 June 2021
Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving COVID-19, by local authority, health board and place of death in the latest weeks for which data are available.

Number of deaths in care homes notified to the Care Quality Commission, England
Dataset | Released 29 June 2021
Provisional counts of deaths in care homes caused by COVID-19 by local authority. Published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Care Quality Commission (CQC).

Care home resident deaths registered in England and Wales, provisional
Dataset | Released 29 June 2021
Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered of care home residents in England and Wales, by region. Includes data on coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths. Data are weekly and provisional.

Try the new way to filter and download these data:

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9. Glossary

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths are those deaths registered in England and Wales in the stated week where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. A doctor can certify the involvement of COVID-19 based on symptoms and clinical findings – a positive test result is not required. Definitions of COVID-19 for deaths in Scotland and Northern Ireland are similar to England and Wales.

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10. Measuring the data

To meet user needs, we publish very timely but provisional counts of death registrations in England and Wales in our Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional dataset. These are presented:

  • by sex

  • by age group

  • for regions (within England)

  • for Wales as a whole

To allow time for registration and processing, figures are published 11 days after the week ends. Because of the rapidly changing situation, we also provide provisional updated totals for death occurrences based on the latest available death registrations, up to 26 June 2021.

Coronavirus

This weekly release now provides a separate breakdown of the number of deaths involving COVID-19; that is, where COVID-19 or suspected COVID-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, including in combination with other health conditions.

If a death certificate mentions COVID-19, it will not always be the main cause of death but may be a contributory factor. This bulletin summarises the latest weekly information and will be updated each week during the pandemic.

Data coverage

The data for 2020 are based on a 53-week year. Because the number of days in a week is seven, when there are 52 weeks, we only cover 364 days of the 365 days in the year, which results in one remaining day each calendar year not included in the 52 weeks. With the occurrence of leap years, it is sometimes necessary to add a 53rd week to the end of the calendar, which was the case in 2020. This happens every five years - the last time there was a Week 53 was in 2015. Given the low frequency of Week 53, it is more appropriate to compare the 2020 figures with the average for Week 52 than to compare it with a single year from five years previous. View more detail on the data coverage for the weekly deaths bulletin.

Influenza and pneumonia has been included for comparison (Figure 2) as a well-understood cause of death involving respiratory infection that is likely to have somewhat similar risk factors to COVID-19.

Registration delays

This bulletin is based mainly on the date deaths are registered, not the date of death, because of the time taken for a death to be registered. Deaths in England and Wales are normally registered within five days, but there can be a considerably longer delay in some circumstances, particularly when the death is referred to a coroner. More information on this issue can be found in our impact of registration delays release.

We have developed a statistical model to estimate the number of deaths likely to have occurred in each week, based on previous experience of the pattern of registration delays, including the effects of bank holidays. Results are shown in the "Estimated total deaths 2021" tab, of the accompanying dataset.

Classification codes

From the week ending 26 February 2021 (Week 8), new International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) codes for COVID-19 issued by the World Health Organization (WHO) were implemented for deaths involving COVID-19. View more detail about the additional classification codes for COVID-19.

We will publish accompanying articles periodically, giving enhanced information such as age-standardised and age-specific mortality rates for recent time periods and breakdowns of deaths involving COVID-19 by associated pre-existing health conditions.

Our User guide to mortality statistics provides further information on data quality, legislation and procedures relating to mortality and includes a glossary of terms.

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11. Strengths and limitations

Comparability

These weekly figures are for England and Wales only (as this is the Office for National Statistics' (ONS's) legal remit). They are from the formal death registration process and may include cases where the doctor completing the death certificate diagnosed possible cases of coronavirus (COVID-19), for example, where this was based on relevant symptoms but no test was conducted. The ONS' figures are different from the daily surveillance figures on COVID-19 deaths published by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) on GOV.UK, which are for the UK as a whole and its constituent countries.

From 29 April 2020, the DHSC published improved data for England from Public Health England (PHE) to include a count of all deaths, regardless of location, where a positive COVID-19 test was confirmed. Previously, only confirmed COVID-19 deaths in hospitals were reported. This improved the comparability with figures for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, where deaths outside of hospitals were already being included, and ensured that the UK-wide series had a shared and common definitional coverage. View the ONS statement for more detail on these data changes.

On 12 August 2020, the PHE data series was revised to include deaths of positively tested individuals where the death occurred within 28 days, and deaths within 60 days of a positive test. The technical summary (PDF, 854KB) provides more detail on these changes.

View more detail on the differences in definitions of COVID-19 deaths between sources, and differences in definitions of COVID-19 deaths in care homes.

Quality

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Mortality statistics in England and Wales QMI.

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Manylion cyswllt ar gyfer y Bwletin ystadegol

Sarah Caul
health.data@ons.gov.uk
Ffôn: +44 (0)1329 444110