Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: week ending 14 January 2022

• In the week ending 14 January 2022 (Week 2), 13,311 deaths were registered in England and Wales; this was 1,049 more deaths than the previous week (Week 1) and 6.1% below the five-year average (872 fewer deaths).
• The number of deaths registered in England in the week ending 14 January 2022 (Week 2) was 12,399; this was 929 more deaths than the previous week (Week 1) and 6.6% below the five-year average (871 fewer deaths).
• The number of deaths registered in Wales in the week ending 14 January 2022 (Week 2) was 884; this was 108 more deaths than the previous week (Week 1) and equal to the five-year average.
• Compared with the 2015 to 2019 five-year average (as opposed to the new five-year average used in the previous main points), deaths in England and Wales were 3.7% below average (511 fewer deaths), in England were 4.1% below average (534 fewer deaths) and in Wales were 3.3% above average (28 more deaths).
• Of the deaths registered in Week 2 in England and Wales, 1,382 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, accounting for 10.4% of all deaths; this was an increase in the number of deaths compared with Week 1 (922 deaths, 7.5% of all deaths).
• The number of deaths involving COVID-19 in England increased to 1,308 in Week 2, compared with 857 in Week 1; for Wales, deaths involving COVID-19 increased to 69 in Week 2, compared with 61 in Week 1.
• Of the 1,382 deaths involving COVID-19, 77.4% (1,070 deaths) had this recorded as the underlying cause of death in Week 2 compared with 77.2% in Week 1.
• Using the most up-to-date data we have available, the number of deaths from the week ending 13 March 2020 to the week ending 14 January 2022 was 1,102,564 in England and Wales; of these, 1,033,245 were recorded in England and 67,857 were recorded in Wales.
• From the week ending 13 March 2020 to the week ending 14 January 2022, the number of excess deaths above the five-year average in England and Wales was 126,831; of these, 121,596 were recorded in England and 6,520 were recorded in Wales.
• In Week 2 in England and Wales, the number of deaths was above the five-year average in private homes (18.3% above, 587 excess deaths) but below the five-year average in hospitals (14.9% below, 1,044 fewer deaths), care homes (11.3% below, 345 fewer deaths) and other settings (7.7% below, 69 fewer deaths).
• The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 14 January 2022 was 15,257, which was 5.3% below the five-year average (859 fewer deaths); of the deaths registered in the UK in Week 2, 1,557 involved COVID-19, which was 534 more than in Week 1.

Figure 1: Total deaths from all causes were below the five-year average in Week 2

Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 14 January 2022

Notes:

1. Figures include deaths of non-residents.
2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
3. All figures are provisional.
4. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are available in the Measuring the data section.
5. The number of deaths registered in a week are affected when bank holidays occur.
6. Information relating to the five-year averages used can be found in the measuring the data section.

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• Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales by age and sex: COVID-19
• Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales by region: COVID-19
• Death registrations and occurrences by local authority and place of death
• Death registrations and occurrences by health board and place of death

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths are those deaths registered in England and Wales in the stated week where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. A doctor can certify the involvement of COVID-19 based on symptoms and clinical findings – a positive test result is not required. Definitions of COVID-19 for deaths in Scotland and Northern Ireland are similar to England and Wales.

To meet user needs, we publish very timely but provisional counts of death registrations in England and Wales in our Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional dataset. These are presented:

• by sex
• by age group
• for regions (within England)
• for Wales as a whole

To allow time for registration and processing, figures are published 11 days after the week ends. Because of the rapidly changing situation, we also provide provisional updated totals for death occurrences based on the latest available death registrations, up to 22 January 2022.

The five-year average is designed to show us the expected number of deaths based on the most recent years. Using five years means random year-on-year fluctuations are smoothed.

The 2015 to 2019 five-year average was used to compare against deaths registered in 2020 and 2021 because it provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year. The further we move away from the five years in question, the less robust the measure is because of changes in population numbers, age and structure.

Deaths registered in 2022 will be compared with the 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021 five-year average. As 2021 is also a pandemic year and does increase some of the expected deaths in a week, other comparisons are also used including week-by-week and 2021 only.

The number of registration days in a reference period can affect mortality statistics. For example, bank holidays can affect the number of registrations within a week or month because of the closure of registration offices. We often see high death registrations in the first two weeks of January when registration services are back in office and dealing with any backlog from the bank holiday period because of the Christmas period.

Coronavirus

This weekly release now provides a separate breakdown of the number of deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19); that is, where COVID-19 or suspected COVID-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, including in combination with other health conditions.

If a death certificate mentions COVID-19, it will not always be the main cause of death but may be a contributory factor. This bulletin summarises the latest weekly information and will be updated each week during the coronavirus pandemic.

Data coverage

The data for 2020 are based on a 53-week year. Because the number of days in a week is seven, when there are 52 weeks, we only cover 364 days of the 365 days in the year. This results in one remaining day each calendar year not being included in the 52 weeks. With the occurrence of leap years, it is sometimes necessary to add a 53rd week to the end of the calendar, which was the case in 2020. This happens every five years – the last time there was a Week 53 was in 2015. Given the low frequency of Week 53, it is more appropriate to compare the 2020 figures with the average for Week 52 than to compare it with a single year from five years previous. View more detail on the data coverage for the weekly deaths bulletin in our Coronavirus and mortality in England and Wales methodology.

Influenza and pneumonia has been included for comparison in the Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional dataset as a well-understood cause of death involving respiratory infection that is likely to have somewhat similar risk factors to COVID-19.

Registration delays

This bulletin is based mainly on the date deaths are registered, not the date of death, because of the time taken for a death to be registered. Deaths in England and Wales are normally registered within five days, but there can be a considerably longer delay in some circumstances, particularly when the death is referred to a coroner. More information on this issue can be found in our Impact of registration delays on mortality statistics article.

We have developed a statistical model to estimate the number of deaths likely to have occurred in each week based on previous experience of the pattern of registration delays, including the effects of bank holidays. You can find out more about this statistical model in our Predicting total weekly death occurrences in England and Wales methodology. Results are shown in the “Estimated total deaths 2021” tab of the Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional dataset.

Classification codes

From the week ending 26 February 2021 (Week 8), new International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) codes for COVID-19 issued by the World Health Organization (WHO) were implemented for deaths involving COVID-19. View more detail about the additional classification codes for COVID-19 in the Coronavirus and mortality in England and Wales methodology.

We will publish accompanying articles periodically, giving enhanced information such as age-standardised and age-specific mortality rates for recent time periods, and breakdowns of deaths involving COVID-19 by associated pre-existing health conditions.

Our User guide to mortality statistics provides further information on data quality, legislation and procedures relating to mortality and includes a glossary of terms.

Comparability

These weekly figures are for England and Wales only (as this is the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) legal remit). They are from the formal death registration process and may include cases where the doctor completing the death certificate diagnosed possible cases of coronavirus (COVID-19), for example, where this was based on relevant symptoms, but no test was conducted. The ONS figures are different from the daily surveillance figures on COVID-19 deaths published by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) on GOV.UK, which are for the UK as a whole and its constituent countries.

From 29 April 2020, the DHSC published improved data for England from Public Health England (PHE) to include a count of all deaths, regardless of location, where a positive COVID-19 test was confirmed. Previously, only confirmed COVID-19 deaths in hospitals were reported. This improved the comparability with figures for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, where deaths outside of hospitals were already being included, and ensured that the UK-wide series had a shared and common definitional coverage. View the ONS statement regarding different uses of figures on deaths related to COVID-19 for more detail on these data changes.

On 12 August 2020, the PHE data series was revised to include deaths of positively tested individuals where the death occurred within 28 days, and deaths within 60 days of a positive test. The Public Health England technical summary (PDF, 854KB) provides more detail on these changes.

View more detail on the differences in definitions of COVID-19 deaths between sources and differences in definitions of COVID-19 deaths in care homes in the Coronavirus and mortality in England and Wales methodology.

Quality

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Mortality statistics in England and Wales QMI.