Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: 10 September 2021

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19), in the latest weeks for which data are available.

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Cyswllt:
Email Sarah Caul

Dyddiad y datganiad:
21 September 2021

Cyhoeddiad nesaf:
28 September 2021

1. Main points

  • The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 10 September 2021 was affected by the Summer Bank Holiday that occurred in the previous week (Week 35), it is likely that more deaths were registered than we would normally expect due to less deaths being registered in the previous week.

  • In Week 36, 11,035 deaths were registered in England and Wales; this was 2,238 more deaths than the previous week (Week 35) and 20.2% above the five-year average (1,853 more deaths).

  • The number of deaths registered in England in the week ending 10 September 2021 (Week 36) was 10,352; this was 2,118 more deaths than the previous week (Week 35) and 20.3% above the five-year average (1,748 more deaths).

  • The number of deaths registered in Wales in the week ending 10 September 2021 (Week 36) was 667; this was 125 more deaths than the previous week (Week 35) and 20.8% above the five-year average (115 more deaths).

  • Of the deaths registered in Week 36 in England and Wales, 857 mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19)", accounting for 7.8% of all deaths; this was an increase compared with Week 35 (659 deaths).

  • The number of deaths involving COVID-19 in England increased to 786 in Week 36 compared with 632 in Week 35; for Wales, deaths involving COVID-19 increased to 65 in Week 36 compared with 25 in Week 35.

  • The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 10 September 2021 was 12,503, which was 2,057 more than the five-year average; of deaths registered in the UK in Week 36,994 involved COVID-19, that is, 213 more than in Week 35.

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Week 35 included the Summer Bank Holiday (Monday 30 August 2021) so differences between Week 35 and Week 36 should be treated with caution. More deaths were likely registered in Week 36 because of fewer deaths being registered in Week 35 due to the closure of registrar offices over the Bank Holiday. Comparisons with the five-year average should also be interpreted with caution as the Summer Bank Holiday has fallen in either Week 35 or Week 36 since 2015.

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2. Deaths registered by week

Figure 1: The number of deaths registered in Week 36 was above the five-year average in England and in Wales

Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 10 September 2021

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Notes:
  1. Figures exclude deaths of non-residents.

  2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.

  3. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.

  4. The number of deaths registered in a week are affected when bank holidays occur.

  5. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.

Download the data

The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales increased from 8,797 in Week 35 (week ending 3 September 2021) to 11,035 in Week 36 (week ending 10 September 2021). Week 35 included the Summer Bank Holiday when register offices are likely to be closed. Therefore, trends should be interpreted with caution in this week's and last week's publications.

The number of deaths was 20.2% above the five-year average (1,853 more deaths) in England and Wales. The Summer Bank Holiday appears in different weeks depending on the year; it was in Week 35 in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019, whereas it was in Week 36 in 2015. Comparisons with the five-year average should be treated with caution for Weeks 35 and 36.

We have developed an experimental statistical model to estimate the number of deaths that actually occurred in a given week, rather than the number registered. For Week 36, we estimate that 9,559 deaths occurred in England and Wales, with a 95% confidence interval of 8,475 to 10,877. This is 642 more deaths than the mean for the period 2015 to 2019 in Week 36, and a decrease of 732 deaths from the Week 35 2021 estimate of 10,291 (confidence interval: 9,841 to 10,846).

These are provisional estimates that assume the pattern of occurrences can be predicted based on experience in previous years. The estimate for the most recent week always has a wider margin of error than for earlier weeks, so it should be treated with caution.

In England, the number of deaths increased from 8,234 in Week 35 to 10,352 in Week 36, which was 2,118 more deaths (20.3% higher) than the Week 36 five-year average (Figure 1). Of these, 786 deaths involved coronavirus (COVID-19) in Week 36, a 24.4% increase compared with Week 35 (632 deaths). Of all deaths registered in Week 36 in England, 7.6% mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate.

In Week 36 (week ending 10 September 2021), the total number of deaths registered increased compared with Week 35 (week ending 3 September 2021) in all regions of England. The largest increase was reported in the South East (472 more deaths).

The numbers of deaths involving COVID-19 increased in eight of the nine English regions in Week 36. The largest increase was reported in the West Midlands (31 more deaths). More information can be found in the Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales dataset, and a more detailed geographical analysis can be found in our Monthly mortality analysis bulletin.

In Wales, the number of deaths increased from 542 in Week 35 to 667 in Week 36, which was 115 more deaths than the Week 36 five-year average (Figure 1). Of these, 65 deaths involved COVID-19 in Week 36, compared with 25 in Week 35. Of all deaths registered in Week 36 in Wales, 9.7% mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate.

Figure 2: Total deaths from all causes were above the five-year average in Week 36

Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 10 September 2021

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Notes:
  1. Figures include deaths of non-residents.

  2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.

  3. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.

  4. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are available in the Measuring the data section.

  5. The number of deaths registered in a week are affected when bank holidays occur.

  6. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.

Download the data

Analysis in this section includes deaths from Week 11 of 2020 (week ending 13 March 2020, the week of the first registration of a death involving COVID-19) through to Week 36 of 2021 (week ending 10 September 2021), to ensure full coverage of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

Using the most up-to-date data we have available, the number of deaths from the week ending 13 March 2020 up to 10 September 2021 was 902,061 in England and Wales. Of these, 145,958 (16.2%) mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate. During this period, the number of excess deaths above the five-year average was 113,002.

In England, the number of deaths between the weeks ending 13 March 2020 and 10 September 2021 was 845,900; of these, 137,635 deaths (16.3%) mentioned COVID-19. This was 108,715 deaths above the five-year average.

In Wales, the number of deaths for the same period was 55,030; of these, 8,111 deaths (14.7%) mentioned COVID-19. This was 5,451 deaths above the five-year average.

More about coronavirus

Figure 3: Deaths in Week 36 were above the five-year average in all settings

Number of excess deaths by place of occurrence, England and Wales, registered between 7 March 2020 and 10 September 2021

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Notes:
  1. Based on area of usual residence. Geographical boundaries and communal establishments are based on the most up-to-date information available.

  2. Figures include deaths of non-residents.

  3. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.

  4. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.

  5. "Other" includes deaths in communal establishments other than hospitals and care homes, in hospices, and that occurred "elsewhere". More information on the place of death definitions used is available in the Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales dataset.

  6. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.

Download the data

In Week 36, the number of deaths in private homes was 44.5% above the five-year average (972 excess deaths) and deaths in hospitals were 14.4% above the five-year average (606 excess deaths). Deaths in care homes were 12.9% above the five-year average (260 excess deaths) and deaths in other settings were 1.7% above the five-year average (13 excess deaths).

In addition, more detailed analysis of excess deaths in England is produced by Public Health England (PHE) on a weekly basis.

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3. Deaths registered in the UK

Figure 4: Deaths involving COVID-19 increased in the UK in Week 36

Number of deaths registered by week, UK, week ending 8 January 2021 to week ending 10 September 2021

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Notes:
  1. Figures include deaths of non-residents that were registered in each country.

  2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.

  3. All figures for 2021 are provisional.

  4. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are available in the Measuring the data section.

  5. National Records of Scotland produces figures for Scotland with an updated back series. We update the back series until the end of the calendar year, therefore the UK total in 2021 may differ from previous weeks in 2021.

  6. Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency produces figures for Northern Ireland.

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Across the UK, there were 12,503 deaths (all causes) registered in Week 36 (week ending 10 September 2021). This was 2,057 more deaths than the UK five-year average and 2,186 more deaths than in Week 35 (week ending 3 September 2021).

Deaths were above the five-year average in England (1,748 more deaths), Wales (115 more deaths), Scotland (103 more deaths) and Northern Ireland (101 more deaths). Of all deaths in the UK in Week 36, 994 involved coronavirus (COVID-19), 213 more deaths than in Week 35, a 27.3% increase.

In Week 36, England had the highest number of deaths involving COVID-19 with 786 deaths, followed by Scotland (76 deaths), Wales (65 deaths) and Northern Ireland (61 deaths).

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4. Deaths data

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional
Dataset | Released 21 September 2021
Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available. Includes data on coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths.

Death registrations and occurrences by local authority and health board
Dataset | Released 21 September 2021
Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving COVID-19, by local authority, health board and place of death in the latest weeks for which data are available.

Number of deaths in care homes notified to the Care Quality Commission, England
Dataset | Released 21 September 2021
Provisional counts of deaths in care homes caused by COVID-19 by local authority. Published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Care Quality Commission (CQC).

Care home resident deaths registered in England and Wales, provisional
Dataset | Released 21 September 2021
Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered of care home residents in England and Wales, by region. Includes data on coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths. Data are weekly and provisional.

Try the new way to filter and download these data:

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5. Glossary

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths are those deaths registered in England and Wales in the stated week where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. A doctor can certify the involvement of COVID-19 based on symptoms and clinical findings - a positive test result is not required. Definitions of COVID-19 for deaths in Scotland and Northern Ireland are similar to England and Wales.

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6. Measuring the data

To meet user needs, we publish very timely but provisional counts of death registrations in England and Wales in our Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional dataset. These are presented:

  • by sex

  • by age group

  • for regions (within England)

  • for Wales as a whole

To allow time for registration and processing, figures are published 11 days after the week ends. Because of the rapidly changing situation, we also provide provisional updated totals for death occurrences based on the latest available death registrations, up to 18 September 2021.

Coronavirus

This weekly release now provides a separate breakdown of the number of deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19); that is, where COVID-19 or suspected COVID-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, including in combination with other health conditions.

If a death certificate mentions COVID-19, it will not always be the main cause of death but may be a contributory factor. This bulletin summarises the latest weekly information and will be updated each week during the pandemic.

Data coverage

The data for 2020 are based on a 53-week year. Because the number of days in a week is seven, when there are 52 weeks, we only cover 364 days of the 365 days in the year, which results in one remaining day each calendar year not included in the 52 weeks. With the occurrence of leap years, it is sometimes necessary to add a 53rd week to the end of the calendar, which was the case in 2020. This happens every five years - the last time there was a Week 53 was in 2015. Given the low frequency of Week 53, it is more appropriate to compare the 2020 figures with the average for Week 52 than to compare it with a single year from five years previous. View more detail on the data coverage for the weekly deaths bulletin in our Coronavirus and mortality in England and Wales methodology.

Influenza and pneumonia has been included for comparison in the Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales dataset as a well-understood cause of death involving respiratory infection that is likely to have somewhat similar risk factors to COVID-19.

Registration delays

This bulletin is based mainly on the date deaths are registered, not the date of death, because of the time taken for a death to be registered. Deaths in England and Wales are normally registered within five days, but there can be a considerably longer delay in some circumstances, particularly when the death is referred to a coroner. More information on this issue can be found in our impact of registration delays article.

We have developed a statistical model to estimate the number of deaths likely to have occurred in each week based on previous experience of the pattern of registration delays, including the effects of bank holidays. You can find out more about this statistical model in our Predicting total weekly death occurrences in England and Wales methodology. Results are shown in the "Estimated total deaths 2021" tab of the Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales dataset.

Classification codes

From the week ending 26 February 2021 (Week 8), new International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) codes for COVID-19 issued by the World Health Organization (WHO) were implemented for deaths involving COVID-19. View more detail about the additional classification codes for COVID-19 in the Coronavirus and mortality in England and Wales methodology.

We will publish accompanying articles periodically, giving enhanced information such as age-standardised and age-specific mortality rates for recent time periods and breakdowns of deaths involving COVID-19 by associated pre-existing health conditions.

Our User guide to mortality statistics provides further information on data quality, legislation and procedures relating to mortality and includes a glossary of terms.

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7. Strengths and limitations

Comparability

These weekly figures are for England and Wales only (as this is the Office for National Statistics' (ONS') legal remit). They are from the formal death registration process and may include cases where the doctor completing the death certificate diagnosed possible cases of coronavirus (COVID-19), for example, where this was based on relevant symptoms, but no test was conducted. The ONS figures are different from the daily surveillance figures on COVID-19 deaths published by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) on GOV.UK, which are for the UK as a whole and its constituent countries.

From 29 April 2020, the DHSC published improved data for England from Public Health England (PHE) to include a count of all deaths, regardless of location, where a positive COVID-19 test was confirmed. Previously, only confirmed COVID-19 deaths in hospitals were reported. This improved the comparability with figures for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, where deaths outside of hospitals were already being included, and ensured that the UK-wide series had a shared and common definitional coverage. View the ONS statement regarding different uses of figures on deaths related to COVID-19 for more detail on these data changes.

On 12 August 2020, the PHE data series was revised to include deaths of positively tested individuals where the death occurred within 28 days, and deaths within 60 days of a positive test. The Public Health England technical summary (PDF, 854KB) provides more detail on these changes.

View more detail on the differences in definitions of COVID-19 deaths between sources and differences in definitions of COVID-19 deaths in care homes in the Coronavirus and mortality in England and Wales methodology.

Quality

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Mortality statistics in England and Wales QMI.

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Manylion cyswllt ar gyfer y Bwletin ystadegol

Sarah Caul
health.data@ons.gov.uk
Ffôn: +44 1329 444110