Productivity flash estimate and overview, UK: April to June 2026 and January to March 2026

• We are currently developing a component approach to measuring Labour Productivity; however, until these data are published, we recommend using the Real Time Information (RTI) based approach as the best measure of changes in labour productivity.

• The flash estimate of labour productivity, primarily using Pay As You Earn (PAYE) RTI data for Quarter 2 (Apr to Jun) 2026 shows output per hour and output per worker were 0.7% and 1.4% higher in the year to Quarter 2 2026, respectively, compared with Quarter 2 2025.

• Estimates based on the LFS indicate output per hour worked in the year to Quarter 2 (Apr to Jun) 2026 was 0.2% lower compared with Quarter 2 2025, while output per worker increased by 0.4% compared with the same period.

Background

The results in this article are consistent with labour market data from our Labour market overview, UK: August 2026 bulletin. The gross value added (GVA) estimate used in this section is from our Gross domestic product (GDP) first quarterly estimate, UK: April to June 2026 bulletin.

We are developing a new component-based approach to measuring labour productivity to address challenges associated with labour market measurement and to align with international best practice. The new approach produces estimates that are more closely aligned with Real Time Information (RTI) based measures of employment. Further details will be available in a forthcoming methods article that will be published in September.

For information on our Real Time Information (RTI) method, please see Section 3 of our Productivity flash estimate and overview, UK: January to March 2025 and October to December 2024 bulletin. Users should be aware that the estimates within this section are official statistics in development.

An operational error occurred in May 2026, which led to temporary under-resourcing in Labour Force Survey (LFS) telephone collection operations. The direct impact was on response levels between 3 May and 10 June, with some residual effects persisting until 17 June. The issue primarily affected Waves 2 to 5 of the survey and more information can be found in section 4 of our Labour Force Survey quality update: July 2026.

We simulated what the impact would have been had a similar issue occurred in Quarter 2 (Mar to May) 2025. We found these impacts to be close to zero for headline employment, unemployment and inactivity rates, with the differences rarely exceeding 0.1 percentage points. Differences are slightly bigger for average actual weekly hours used in the production of productivity statistics.

If the effect in Quarter 2 (Apr to Jun) 2026 was the same as in Quarter 2 2025 then, without the operational issue, our best estimate of the potential impact is that productivity growth (in terms of output per hour) for our Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI) based estimate would have been 0.6% in the year to Quarter 2 2026 rather than 0.7%.

Flash estimates produced using administrative data methods with different data sources

Output per hour worked growth produced using administrative data methods with different data sources was 4.6% above its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels (2019 average level) in Quarter 2 (Apr to Jun) 2026 (Table 1). This growth was caused by a 7.1% increase in GVA and a 2.4% increase in hours worked over this period.

Output per hour worked growth using administrative data methods with different data sources increased by 0.7% in Quarter 2 2026 compared with Quarter 2 2025. This is because GVA increased by 1.2% and the number of hours worked increased by 0.4%.

Figure 1 shows the latest output per worker quarterly estimates calculated using the LFS and the RTI. Enhancements to the LFS, introduced since January 2024, mean that movements in the LFS since then reflect both underlying developments in the economy and improved survey quality, including obtaining more responses from employed people. As survey improvements have helped bring the level of measured employment in the LFS more into line with other indicators, recent LFS measures of employment growth are likely to be temporarily higher while recent LFS measures of productivity growth are likely to be temporarily lower.

RTI does not collect actual hours worked. This means that the whole-economy hours worked for both RTI and LFS are calculated by multiplying LFS average hours worked with the number of workers from the RTI and LFS (Figure 2). The impact on output per hour can be observed by varying the data source for workers, given the differences in worker counts reported by each source.

Background

We published our latest Labour Force Survey quality update: July 2026 article on 21 July 2026. This article provides users with information to better understand the current quality of labour market data and guidance on how best to use the data in their analysis.

Flash estimate using the Labour Force Survey

Output per hour worked growth produced using LFS sources was 2.3% above its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels (2019 average level) in Quarter 2 (Apr to Jun) 2026 (Table 2). This growth was caused by a 7.1% increase in gross value added (GVA) and a 4.7% increase in hours worked over this period.

Output per hour worked growth produced using LFS sources decreased by 0.2% in Quarter 2 2026 compared with Quarter 2 2025. This is because GVA increased by 1.2% and the number of hours worked increased by 1.4% over this period.

Output per hour worked growth produced using LFS sources remains weak by historical standards. In the latest quarter, output per hour was 2.3% above its 2019 average. Although productivity has recovered from the disruption caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, growth remains subdued compared with the stronger productivity trends seen before the 2008 global financial crisis.

Output per worker growth was 2.3% above its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels (2019 average level) in Quarter 2 2026 (Table 2). This growth was caused by a 7.1% increase in GVA and a 4.7% increase in workers over the period.

Output per worker growth was 0.4% in Quarter 2 2026, compared with Quarter 2 2025. This is because GVA increased by 1.2%, which is a faster rate than the number of workers (0.7%).

Addressing uncertainty

We recognise that there is additional uncertainty around the movements in employment in recent years, particularly around reconciling movements between the LFS and RTI. This reflects that between 2020 and 2025 the profile of the LFS-based measure of productivity has been affected by changes in the quality of the LFS. Enhancements to the LFS, introduced since January 2024, mean that movements in the LFS since then reflect both underlying developments in the economy and improved survey quality, including obtaining more responses from employed people. As survey improvements have helped bring the level of measured employment in the LFS more into line with other indicators, recent LFS measures of employment growth are likely to be temporarily higher while recent LFS measures of productivity growth are likely to be temporarily lower.

As we stated in June, we currently recommend using the RTI-based measure. We are undertaking further analysis to understand the recent differences between these employee measures. This includes research we have undertaken to understand whether linking RTI data to the LFS and Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) can help identify and address employment-related non-response bias. Initial findings from the LFS analysis, which reconfirm that the LFS recovery activity has reduced survey bias, will be published in autumn 2026. We are also looking at further methodological improvements to our estimates of labour productivity, looking at international best practice to build labour metrics up from their “components” of labour input for labour productivity purposes.

The results in this article are consistent with labour market data from our Labour market overview, UK: August 2026 bulletin. The gross value added (GVA) used in this section is from our Gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly national accounts, UK: January to March 2026.

Contribution to UK productivity growth and decomposition

Figure 3 shows the contribution to growth in output per hour worked for 19 industries in Quarter 1 2026, relative to 2019 (average).

The information and communication industry made the largest upward contribution to productivity growth (2.8%), compared with 2019 (average). Human health and social work activities made the largest negative contribution to productivity growth (negative 0.9%) over the same period.

Figure 3: The information and communication industry has made the largest upward contribution to UK output per hour growth since 2019

Contribution to growth of output per hour worked, percentage points, 2026Q1 compared with 2019 average

Notes:

1. The industry contributions may not add up to the total growth in output per hour because of the National Accounts balancing value and the impact of rounding.
2. The "other services" industry includes activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods and services producing activities of households for own use, activities of membership organisations, repair of computers and personal and household goods, and a variety of personal service activities not covered elsewhere in our Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) 2007.
3. The relative size of an industry shown is based on the current price (CP) value from 2019 (average).

Figure 4 shows the decomposition of growth of output per hour worked. Growth in the information and communication industry was mainly caused by an increase in gross value added (GVA).

The large decrease in output per hour in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply industry should be treated with caution. This series is subject to high volatility. We are reviewing and investigating improvements to the data sources and methods. We will aim to publish the results of our investigations into this industry later this year.

Figure 4: Output per hour growth was largest in the information technology industry compared with its 2019 average, because of a large increase in gross value added

Decomposition of growth of output per hour worked, hours worked and gross value added (GVA), Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026 compared with 2019 average, percentage change, UK

Gross value added

Gross value added (GVA) is the value generated by any unit engaged in production and the contributions of individual sectors or industries to gross domestic product (GDP).

Labour productivity

Labour productivity measures how many units of output are produced for each unit of labour input and is calculated by dividing output by labour input.

Labour inputs

The preferred measure of labour input is hours worked ("productivity hours"), but workers and jobs ("productivity jobs") are also used.

Output

Output refers to gross value added (GVA), which is an estimate of the volume of goods and services produced by an industry and in aggregate for the UK.

Reallocation effect

The reallocation effect describes that even if every industry were to experience zero productivity growth, the whole economy could still grow if higher-productivity sectors expand while lower-productivity sectors contract.

A positive reallocation effect indicates that economic activity has shifted, on average, from lower productivity industries to higher productivity ones. A negative reallocation effect indicates the reverse.

Information on methods for the labour productivity data, its strengths and limitations, as well as the quality and accuracy of the data, is available in our Labour productivity Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).

New estimates of gross value added (GVA) are more volatile on a quarterly basis, especially in production industries. This reflects the use of new data and methods and the challenges in reconciling quarterly and annual data, as explained in our Recent challenges of balancing the three approaches of GDP article. As productivity is a structural feature of the economy, we continue to advise users to focus on long-term trends of productivity.

The Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI) comes from our monthly Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK bulletin, with estimates of payrolled employees and their pay from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). More information on the methods used to derive monthly employee and earnings estimates from PAYE RTI administrative data can be found in our New methods for monthly earnings and employment estimates from PAYE RTI data: December 2019 article.

Imputed rental is excluded from "Industry L: real estate" because including it would distort productivity measures, since the output is mainly an imputed value rather than a result of labour or market service provision. For "Industry B: mining and quarrying", employee average hours are calculated at section level because reliable and detailed data on average hours worked is only available for the entire section, rather than for each division within the section.

Labour Force Survey reweighting

We published our Labour Force Survey: planned improvements and its reintroduction methodology on 2 November 2023. This enabled the reintroduction of the Labour Force Survey (LFS) following its suspension in October 2023, when falling response rates led to increased data uncertainty.

Productivity data in this release reflect reweighted LFS data consistent with our Labour market overview, UK: August 2026 bulletin. Whole-economy estimates of second jobs and total hours have been adjusted back to mid-2011. This will ensure that headline productivity statistics can be assessed without a discontinuity. This is for the purposes of productivity estimates only and they are not part of the labour market release. Therefore, the adjusted productivity jobs and the adjusted productivity hours worked diverge slightly from the estimates in our Full-time, part-time and temporary workers dataset and our Actual weekly hours worked dataset from 2011 to 2019.

Trendlines and confidence intervals

We construct the 95% confidence intervals around the trendlines in our figures by first calculating the standard error (SE) by dividing the standard deviation of residuals by the square root of the number of periods. Then, we determine the critical value corresponding to the 95% confidence level (1.96) and multiply it by the SE. Finally, we use this value to create the interval by adding and subtracting the result from the predicted trendline value at each point, providing the upper and lower bounds of the confidence interval.

Our trendlines are based on research we published in our Productivity trends in the UK: July to September 2024 article and updated with the revisions caused by Bluebook 2025. Please email productivity@ons.gov.uk with your comments and views.

Accredited official statistics

Our GVA estimates and Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI) estimates for payrolled employees are accredited official statistics. These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015 for GVA and July 2025 for RTI. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".

Official statistics in development

The labour market and productivity statistics in this article are labelled as "official statistics in development". Until October 2023, these were called "experimental statistics". Read more about the change in our guide to official statistics in development.

To help us meet user needs, please email productivity@ons.gov.uk with any feedback our statistics.