UK trade: October 2023

• The value of goods imports increased by £3.6 billion (8.2%) in October 2023, with rises in imports from both EU and non-EU countries.

• The rise in imports was mainly the result of greater imports of machinery and transport equipment from both EU and non-EU countries.

• The value of goods exports increased by £0.4 billion (1.2%) because of increased exports to non-EU countries, while exports to the EU decreased.

• The total trade in goods and services deficit narrowed by £2.3 billion to £9.2 billion in the three months to October 2023, the result of a substantial fall in goods imports.

• The trade in goods deficit narrowed by £2.1 billion to £47.3 billion in the three months to October 2023, while the trade in services surplus widened by £0.2 billion to £38.1 billion.

EU imports and exports

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) implemented a data collection change affecting data on goods exports from Great Britain to the EU in January 2021, and data on goods imports from the EU to Great Britain in January 2022. We have applied adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU for 2021 to reflect this data collection change, which brought imports and exports statistics onto a like-for-like basis in 2021.

Staged Customs Controls

In 2021, the use of Staged Customs Controls (SCC) allowed customs declarations to be reported up to 175 days after the date of import for imports of non-controlled goods from the EU to Great Britain. The use of SCC led to some double counting in UK trade statistics in the first six months of 2022. To account for this, we applied a downward adjustment to our estimates of goods imports from the EU for the period January to June 2022, as summarised in our article, Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: adjustments to 2022 EU imports estimates.

Imports from and exports to the EU pre-2021

The full data time series for goods imports from and exports to the EU contains a discontinuity from January 2021 resulting from the move from Intrastat to customs declarations, as detailed in our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: adjustments to 2021 EU imports estimates article. We are exploring available data sources to assess whether it is possible to make similar adjustments for the period prior to 2021.

Total imports of goods in “current prices”, which are not adjusted for inflation (explained in Section 10: Glossary), increased by £3.6 billion (8.2%) in October 2023. Imports from non-EU countries rose by £2.1 billion (10.9%), while imports from the EU rose by £1.5 billion (6.1%) (Table 1 and Figure 1).

Total exports of goods increased by £0.4 billion (1.2%) in October 2023, because of a £1.2 billion (8.2%) rise in exports to non-EU countries and partially offset by a £0.9 billion (5.8%) fall to the EU.

Imports from the EU were £5.1 billion higher than from non-EU countries in October 2023, while exports to the EU were £2.1 billion lower than exports to non-EU countries.

Figure 1: Imports from both EU and non-EU countries increased in October 2023

EU and non-EU goods imports and exports, excluding precious metals, current prices, seasonally adjusted, January 2020 to October 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following EU exit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

After removing the effect of inflation by calculating “chained volume measures” (explained in Section 10: Glossary), total goods imports increased by £2.5 billion (6.7%) in October 2023 (Figure 2). This was because imports from the EU increased by £1.0 billion (4.9%) and imports from non-EU countries rose by £1.4 billion (8.9%).

Total goods exports fell by £0.1 billion (0.3%) in October 2023, after the effect of inflation is removed. Exports to the EU decreased by £0.9 billion (7.0%) and exports to non-EU countries increased by £0.8 billion (6.2%).

Figure 2: Imports rose substantially in October 2023 in both value and inflation-adjusted terms

Imports and exports of goods, excluding precious metals, current prices and chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, EU and non-EU, January 2020 to October 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following EU exit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

Goods imports

Imports from the EU increased by £1.5 billion (6.1%) in October 2023. This was mainly because of a £1.3 billion rise in imports of machinery and transport equipment following a subdued September (Figure 3), and imports of fuels also increased by £0.3 billion.

The rise in imports of machinery and transport equipment was because of increased imports of cars from Germany, while the increase in fuel imports was because of increased imports of refined oil from the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden.

Imports from non-EU countries increased by £2.1 billion (10.9%) in October 2023 because of a £0.8 billion rise in imports of machinery and transport equipment, mainly the result of imports of electrical machinery from China.

Additionally, fuel and chemical imports increased by £0.8 billion and £0.3 billion, respectively. Increased fuel imports were the result of imports of gas from Norway, and the increased imports of chemicals were driven by imports of organic chemicals from Canada, and medicinal and pharmaceutical products from Switzerland.

Figure 3: Imports of goods from non-EU countries rose in October 2023, with an increase in machinery and transport equipment, and fuel imports

EU and non-EU goods imports by commodity, current prices, seasonally adjusted, October 2021 to October 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following EU exit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

Volatile fuel prices have influenced trends in the value of fuel imports since autumn 2021. The total value of fuel imported from non-EU countries increased by £0.8 billion (20.8%) in October 2023 (Figure 4). In inflation-adjusted terms, imports of fuels from non-EU countries increased by £0.5 billion (18.1%).

Goods exports

Exports to the EU fell by £0.9 billion (5.8%) in October 2023, because of a £0.3 billion decrease in exports of chemicals and £0.2 billion falls in both exports of material manufactures, and food and live animals (Figure 5). The decrease in chemical exports was mainly the result of reduced exports of organic chemicals to Ireland as well as a fall in exports of medicinal and pharmaceutical products to Germany.

Exports to non-EU countries increased by £1.2 billion (8.2%) in October 2023, driven by a £0.7 billion rise in exports of material manufactures, primarily the result of increased exports to India. There was also a £0.4 billion rise in exports of fuels resulting from an increase in crude oil exports to China, and a £0.3 billion rise in chemical exports.

Figure 5: Exports of goods to non-EU countries increased in October 2023, resulting from a rise in exports of material manufactures, fuels and chemicals

EU and non-EU goods exports by commodity, current prices, seasonally adjusted, October 2021 to October 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following EU exit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

Early estimates suggest imports decreased by around £0.1 billion (0.2%) in value terms in October 2023, while exports decreased by £0.2 billion (0.6%) (Figure 6). Although price rises have affected trade in services in recent months, in October 2023 there was little difference between trade in services trends in value and inflation-adjusted terms. Monthly figures for trade in services for October 2023 are estimated from Quarter 3 (July to September) 2023 data, using additional data sources. View our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) for more detail on how our trade in services statistics are compiled.

The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index for October 2023 reported a decrease in service sector output, and a drop in new business inflows into the service sector. Consumer-facing and transport services continued to decline with demand decreasing for financial and business services. Only the tech and IT sector reported higher output in October.

Figure 6: Exports of services are estimated to have decreased in both value and inflation-adjusted terms in October 2023

Imports and exports of services, current prices and chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, January 2020 to October 2023

In value terms, trade in services is at a higher level than before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Imports of services have increased by £7.8 billion (42.2%) compared with February 2020, while exports of services have risen by £9.6 billion (32.8%). After the effect of inflation has been removed, imports of services are £3.8 billion (20.1%) above February 2020, and exports of services are £3.0 billion (10.5%) above February 2020.

Total imports of goods decreased by £6.4 billion (4.4%) in the three months to October 2023, compared with the three months to July 2023 (Table 2). Goods imports from both EU and non-EU countries fell over this period. Exports of goods decreased by £4.3 billion (4.4%) in the three months to October 2023, with falls in exports to both EU and non-EU countries.

Imports of services increased by an estimated £1.0 billion (1.3%) in the three months to October 2023, compared with the three months to July 2023, while exports of services rose by £1.2 billion (1.0%).

The total goods and services trade balance, excluding precious metals, narrowed by £2.3 billion to a deficit of £9.2 billion in the three months to October 2023 (Figure 7). Imports fell by £5.4 billion over this period, whereas exports fell by £3.1 billion. When removing the effect of inflation, the total trade deficit, excluding precious metals, narrowed by £2.5 billion to £11.3 billion.

The trade in goods deficit in value terms, excluding precious metals, narrowed by £2.1 billion to £47.3 billion in the three months to October 2023. The trade in services surplus widened by £0.2 billion to £38.1 billion.

Explore the 2022 trade in goods data using our interactive tools. Our data break down UK trade in goods with 234 countries by 125 commodities.

Use our map to get a better understanding of what goods the UK traded with a country. Select a country by hovering over it (desktop only) or use the drop-down menu.

Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, see our Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016 article. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are official statistics and no longer experimental.

2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, through the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases, such as UN Comtrade.

3. This interactive map denotes country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out in Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 2.9MB) and do not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

You can also explore the 2022 trade in goods data by commodity, such as car exports to the EU, and UK tea or coffee imports.

Select a commodity from the drop-down menu or select the levels with your digit or cursor to explore the data.

Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, see our Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016 article. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are no longer experimental.

2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, via the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases, such as UN Comtrade.

3. These interactive charts denote country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out within Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 2.9MB) and does not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

In accordance with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, the data in this release have not been revised and only include new data for October 2023.

HM Revenue and Customs correction to the Overseas Trade in Goods Statistics

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) has identified an error impacting Overseas Trade in Goods Statistics (OTS) data used to compile the Office for National Statistics' (ONS) UK trade statistics. This error affects UK exports from March 2022 to April 2023.

The corrections will be incorporated into ONS UK trade statistics in line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, with revised estimates incorporated into GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: July to September 2023 on 22 December 2023 and in UK trade: November 2023 on 12 January 2024.

Chained volume measures (CVMs)

CVM estimates are a “real” measure in that they have had the effect of inflation removed to measure the change in volume between consecutive periods, fixing the prices of goods and services in one period (known as the base year, which is 2019 for trade).

Current price measures (CPs)

These estimates measure the actual price paid for goods or services and are not adjusted for inflation. Unless otherwise stated, all current price data are provided in £ million and are seasonally adjusted.

Inflation

Inflation is the change in the average price level of goods and services over a period of time.

Implied deflators (IDEFs)

An IDEF shows the implied change in average prices for the respective components of the trade balance, for example, the IDEF for imports will show the average price movement for imports.

Precious metals and non-monetary gold

Precious metals include precious metals, silver, platinum and palladium, and it forms part of the commodity group “unspecified goods”. Non-monetary gold comprises the majority of this group and is the technical term for gold bullion not owned by central banks.

Trade balance

The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports or exports minus imports. When the value of exports is greater than the value of imports, the trade balance is in surplus. When the value of imports is greater than the value of exports, the trade balance is in deficit. The balance is sometimes referred to as “net exports”.

A full Glossary of economic terms is available.

The UK leaving the EU and the subsequent transition period, along with the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, supply chain disruption and global recession, have caused higher levels of volatility in trade statistics in recent years. The monthly analysis shows short-term trade movements, but it is important to note that monthly data can be erratic, and therefore movements should be treated with caution.

Data sources

Data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) make up over 90% of trade in goods value and are the main source for this release. HMRC data collection changes following Brexit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

Data from the quarterly International Trade in Services (ITIS) Survey make up over 50% of trade in services data. View our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) for more detail.

Data from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) are the main source for travel services, historically making up around 8% of total imports. Following suspension of the survey in 2020, the survey has now largely resumed, with a very small number of ports yet to have resumed interviewing. We advise continued caution when using these data until the IPS is fully operational. View our UK Trade QMI for more detail.

Unless otherwise specified, data within this bulletin are in current prices and have not been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation. In line with international standards, our headline trade statistics contain the UK's exports and imports of non-monetary gold. View our National Accounts article: A brief explanation of non-monetary gold in national accounts for more information.

Method

Trade is measured through both exports and imports of goods and services. Data are supplied by over 30 sources, including several administrative sources, with HMRC being the largest for trade in goods.

Office for National Statistics (ONS) UK trade figures are produced on a country of dispatch basis, which records imports as coming from the country dispatching the shipments. However, trade figures can also be produced on a country of origin basis, as is used by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ). Users should be aware of the different accounting methods used and the resulting differences across trade figures.

Monthly trade in services data are taken from quarterly trade in services data and split across the months within that quarter through estimation. In months where we have a full quarter’s data, we revise previous estimates of monthly values within that quarter.

View more detailed information about the methods used to produce UK trade statistics in our UK Trade methodology.

National Statistics designation status

The UK Statistics Authority suspended the National Statistics designation of UK trade (PDF, 72.9KB) on 14 November 2014. We have now responded to all of the specific requirements of the Office for Statistics Regulation’s (OSR) reassessment of UK trade. As part of our engagement with the OSR team, we are sharing our continuous improvement and development plans to support UK trade statistics regaining National Statistics status. We welcome feedback on our new trade statistics, developments, and future plans by email to trade@ons.gov.uk.

Trade asymmetries

Asymmetries can be caused by a range of conceptual and measurement variations between the estimation practices of different countries. Statistical agencies are likely to have different source data, estimation methods, and methodological, geographical, and definitional differences. More information on UK trade asymmetries is published by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). Analysis on trade in services asymmetries is published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), in our Asymmetries in trade data articles.

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).