UK trade: October 2021

• Total imports of goods, excluding precious metals, decreased by £0.4 billion (1.1%) in October 2021, driven by a reduction of EU imports by £0.7 billion (3.6%) but partially offset by an increase in imports from non-EU countries of £0.3 billion (1.2%).
• Imports of fuels from non-EU countries increased by £1.0 billion (23.8%) in October 2021, reflecting increases in the quantity of fuel imports as well as rising prices.
• Imports from non-EU countries continue to be higher than from EU countries for the 10th consecutive month, driven predominately by increasing imports of fuels.
• Total exports of goods, excluding precious metals, increased by £0.4 billion (1.6%) in October 2021, driven by a £0.8 billion (6.2%) increase in exports to non-EU countries while exports to EU countries decreased by £0.4 billion (2.7%).
• The trade in services surplus increased by £1.6 billion to £35.7 billion in the three months to October 2021.
• The total trade in goods and services deficit, excluding precious metals, widened by £4.5 billion to £5.2 billion in the three months to October 2021, driven by a deteriorating trade in goods balance, excluding precious metals.

Previously announced timings of the UK leaving the EU and the subsequent transition period, along with the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, global recession and supply chain disruption, have caused higher levels of volatility in trade statistics in the past two years.

While the monthly narrative provides continued analysis on the short-term disruption impacts, comparing 2021 with equivalent 2018 data provides comparisons of trade with our most recent “stable” period. We also include 2021 compared with 2020, as normal. It is important to note monthly data are erratic and therefore small movements should be treated with caution.

Total imports of goods fell by £0.4 billion (1.1%) in October 2021, driven by a reduction of EU imports but partially offset by an increase in imports from non-EU countries. Total exports of goods increased by £0.4 billion (1.6%) in October 2021 with exports to EU countries decreasing while exports to non-EU countries increased (Table 1 and Figure 1).

Exports to non-EU countries were £0.4 billion higher than exports to EU countries in October 2021. Imports from non-EU countries continue to be higher than EU countries for the 10th consecutive month. After the gap between the two closed in August, it has now increased to its widest point of the year (£3.4 billion); however, this gap continues to be linked to the recent increases in the imports of fuels.

Total imports of goods increased by £2.5 billion (2.1%) in the three months to October 2021. Imports to the EU decreased during this time while imports from non-EU countries increased. Total exports of goods decreased by £3.6 billion (4.4%) in the three months to October 2021, this was because of decreases in both exports to EU and non-EU countries.

With the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and recession, it is difficult to assess the extent to which these trade movements reflect short-term trade disruption or longer-term supply chain adjustments. However, the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) reports that 64% of exporters and 75% of importers faced challenges in late October to early November.

Figure 1: Imports of goods from non-EU countries continue to be higher than EU countries

EU and non-EU goods imports and exports, excluding precious metals, October 2018 to October 2021

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Total imports of goods decreased by £0.4 billion (1.1%) in October 2021, driven by a fall in imports from the EU but partially offset by an increase in imports from non-EU countries. Imports from non-EU countries increased by £0.3 (1.2%) billion in October 2021, driven by a £1.0 billion increase in fuel imports. The large increase in fuel imports was largely driven by increased imports of gas from Norway, which rose by £1.0 billion.

Notable increases in imports of fuels from both EU and non-EU countries in recent months can be attributed both to increases in the quantity of fuel imports and rising prices. The rise in fuel prices reflects increased global demand driven by the economic recovery from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and global recession, alongside international supply issues. Increased volumes of fuel imports reflects increasing demand combined with a fall in domestic production of oil and gas in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) and Quarter 3 (Jul to Sept) 2021 because of maintenance on the Forties Pipeline.

The decrease in imports from the EU was largely because of falls in imports of machinery and transport equipment, chemicals and material manufactures (Figure 2). The fall in imports of machinery and transport equipment was driven by reduced imports of ships from Germany and cars from the Netherlands. The ongoing global semiconductor shortage has led to a decrease in car production in Europe and a subsequent fall in imports of cars from the EU. The reduction in chemical imports from EU countries was driven by lower imports from Ireland and Germany.

While imports from non-EU countries increased in October 2021 because of the large increase in fuel imports; this was partly offset by falls in imports of machinery and transport equipment and miscellaneous manufactures. The fall in imports of machinery and transport equipment was largely driven by decreased imports of cars from China.

Figure 2: Imports of goods from non-EU countries increased in October 2021, driven by increasing imports of fuels

EU and non-EU goods exports by commodity October 2019 to October 2021

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Total exports of goods increased by £0.4 billion (1.6%) in October 2021. Exports to EU countries decreased by £0.4 billion (2.7%) and exports to non-EU countries increased by £0.8 billion (6.2%).

Fuel exports to EU countries increased by £0.3 billion, driven by increased exports of gas to the Netherlands. As is the case with fuel imports, rising prices are a large factor in this increase. Exports of machinery and transport, chemicals, material manufactures and miscellaneous manufactures to the EU all decreased in October 2021.

The increase in exports to non-EU countries was driven by increases in exports of chemicals, fuels and machinery and transport equipment. The £0.3 billion increase in chemicals exports was driven by increased exports to the United States and Switzerland and the £0.2 billion increase in fuel exports to non-EU countries was contributed to by exports to the United States and China.

Figure 3: Exports of goods increased in October 2021, driven by increasing exports to non-EU countries

EU and non-EU goods imports by commodity October 2019 to October 2021

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The total trade balance, excluding precious metals, decreased by £4.5 billion in the three months to October 2021. The total trade deficit is now £5.2 billion in the last three months. Total imports, excluding precious metals, increased by £2.3 billion to £156.6 billion while total exports decreased by £2.2 billion to £151.4 billion.

The primary driver for the decline in the total trade balance was the trade in goods balance, which decreased by £6.2 billion in the three months to October 2021. The trade in services balance surplus offset the trade in goods deficit, but not completely. Trade in services surplus increased by £1.6 billion in the three months to October 2021, increasing to £35.7 billion.

Imports of goods in October 2021 were £1.1 billion (2.7%) higher than October 2020 levels. Exports increased by £1.0 billion (3.7%) over the same period (Table 2). As 2020 data was strongly impacted by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, we also compared them against 2018 trade data. Both imports and exports decreased when compared with October 2018, down by 4.0% and 9.6%, respectively.

Imports and exports of goods increased in the three months to October 2021 compared with the three months to October 2020. However, imports and exports decreased when compared with the same period in 2018.

Explore the 2020 trade in goods data using our interactive tools. Our data breaks down UK trade in goods with 234 countries by 125 commodities.

Use our map to get a better understanding of what goods the UK traded with a country. Select a country by hovering over it or use the drop-down menu.

Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, please see Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are official statistics and no longer experimental.
2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, through the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases such as UN Comtrade.
3. This interactive map denotes country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out within Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 1.1MB) and does not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

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You can also explore the 2020 trade in goods data by commodity, for example, car exports to the EU and UK tea or coffee imports.

Select a commodity from the drop-down menu or click through the levels to explore the data.

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Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, please see Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are no longer experimental.
2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, via the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases such as UN Comtrade.
3. These interactive charts denote country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out within Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 1.1MB) and does not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

In accordance with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, the data in this release have not been revised and only include new data for October 2021.

HMRC unscheduled correction

Following the publication of UK trade: April 2021, an error was identified in the HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) Overseas Trade data used to compile the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) UK trade statistics.

Revisions for the period January 2020 to February 2021 were published in our UK trade: May 2021 bulletin on 9 July 2021, taking place outside of the usual National Accounts revisions period to ensure ONS trade figures reflected the most up-to-date position. Revisions for pre-2020 will be incorporated in the annual Blue Book publication in October 2022.

We have published an article providing users with an indicative estimate of the likely scale and impact of these corrections on the ONS trade statistics before their publication in the August 2022 UK trade statistics, due to be published in October 2022.

ONS processing error

Following the publication of UK trade: September 2021 an error was identified. This error occurred because of an unintentional duplication of a small number of figures during our monthly processing.

This has resulted in a discrepancy of £1.1 billion in exports to the Netherlands in September 2021 and a smaller discrepancy of £24.6 million in exports to Greece in July 2021. The impact is spread across a range of products.

In line with our published National Accounts revisions policy, we will revise these figures in our January 2022 monthly trade publication.

This cause of this error has been investigated and measures have been taken to minimise the risk of similar errors in future.

Chained volume measures (CVMs)

CVM estimates are a “real” measure in that it has had the effect of inflation removed to measure the change in volume between consecutive periods, fixing the prices of goods and services in one period (the base year).

Current price measures (CPs)

These estimates measure the actual price paid for goods or services and are not adjusted for inflation. Unless otherwise stated, all current price data are provided in £ million and are seasonally adjusted.

Inflation

Inflation is the change in the average price level of goods and services over a period of time.

Implied deflators (IDEFs)

An IDEF shows the implied change in average prices for the respective components of the trade balance, for example, the IDEF for imports will show the average price movement for imports.

Precious metals and non-monetary gold

Precious metals include precious metals, silver, platinum and palladium, and it forms part of the commodity group “unspecified goods”. Non-monetary gold comprises the majority of this group and is the technical term for gold bullion not owned by central banks.

Trade balance

The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports or exports minus imports. When the value of exports is greater than the value of imports, the trade balance is in surplus. When the value of imports is greater than the value of exports, the trade balance is in deficit. The balance is sometimes referred to as “net exports”.

A full Glossary of economic terms is available.

Economic statistics governance after EU exit

Following the UK’s exit from the EU, new governance arrangements are being put in place that will support the adoption and implementation of high-quality standards for UK economic statistics. These governance arrangements will promote international comparability and add to the credibility and independence of the UK’s statistical system.

At the centre of this new governance framework will be the new National Statistician’s Committee for Advice on Standards for Economic Statistics (NSCASE). NSCASE will support the UK by ensuring its processes for influencing and adopting international statistical standards are world-leading. The advice NSCASE provides to the National Statistician will span the full range of domains in economic statistics, including the National Accounts, fiscal statistics, prices, trade and the balance of payments and labour market statistics.

Further information about NSCASE can be found here.

Consultation on the Code of Practice for Statistics – proposed change to 9.30am release practice

On behalf of the UK Statistics Authority, the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) is conducting a consultation on the Code of Practice for Statistics, proposing changes to the 9.30am release practice. Please send comments by 21 December 2021 to: regulation@statistics.gov.uk.

Coronavirus data impacts

Because of the challenges of data collection during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, we have experienced challenges around the level of survey and data returns for this trade release.

Data sources

Data from the quarterly International Trade in Services (ITIS) Survey make up over 50% of trade in services data. View the UK trade QMI for more detail.

Data from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) are the main source for travel services, making up around 8% of total trade. Following suspension of the survey in 2020 the IPS has now partially resumed. We continue to use the statistical model to produce our regular travel estimates and, for our Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2021 dataset onwards, will use the IPS deliveries to inform these modelled estimates. We will review this decision after deliveries of IPS data fully resume. View the UK trade QMI for more detail.

Data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) make up over 90% of trade in goods value and are the main source. We have worked closely with HMRC to prepare for the change in collection of customs data, which occurred at the end of the EU exit transition period. View further information in Impact of EU exit on the collection and compilation of UK trade statistics.

In line with international standards, our headline trade statistics contain the UK's exports and imports of non-monetary gold. View more information about the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) recording of non-monetary gold.

Unless otherwise specified, data within this bulletin are in current prices; they have not been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation.

Method

Trade is measured through both exports and imports of goods and services. Data are supplied by over 30 sources including several administrative sources, with HMRC being the largest for trade in goods.

View more detailed information about the methods used to produce UK trade statistics on the UK trade methodology web pages. More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the UK trade QMI.

National Statistics designation status

The UK Statistics Authority suspended the National Statistics designation of UK trade on 14 November 2014. We have now responded to all of the specific requirements of the reassessment of UK trade and, as part of our engagement with the Office for Statistics Regulation team, we are sharing our continuous improvement and development plans to support UK trade statistics regaining National Statistics status. We welcome feedback on our new trade statistics, developments and future plans by email to trade@ons.gov.uk.

Trade asymmetries

Asymmetries can be caused by a range of conceptual and measurement variations between the estimation practices of different countries. Statistical agencies are likely to have different source data, estimation methods, and methodological, geographical and definitional differences. More information on trade in goods asymmetries is published by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC), while analysis on trade in services asymmetries is published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the UK trade QMI.