UK trade: May 2023

• The value of goods imports increased by £2.0 billion (4.2%) in May 2023 with a rise in imports from both EU and non-EU countries; after removing the effect of inflation, imports of goods increased by 5.9%.

• The value of goods exports decreased by £1.4 billion (4.4%) in May 2023 with a fall in exports to both EU and non-EU countries; after removing the effect of inflation, exports of goods fell by 3.2%.

• The rise in imports from the EU was because of an increase in imports of cars from Germany, likely linked to the easing of supply chain issues; imports from EU countries have been consistently greater than from non-EU countries since late 2022.

• The total trade in goods and services deficit narrowed by £5.9 billion to £18.2 billion in the three months to May 2023 compared with the three months to February 2023, resulting from a larger fall in imports and a rise in exports.

• The trade in goods deficit narrowed by £6.2 billion to £54.7 billion in the three months to May 2023, while the trade in services surplus narrowed slightly by £0.3 billion to £36.5 billion.

EU imports and exports

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) implemented a data collection change affecting data on goods exports from Great Britain to the EU in January 2021, and data on goods imports from the EU to Great Britain in January 2022. We have applied adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU for 2021 to reflect this data collection change, which brought imports and exports statistics onto a like-for-like basis in 2021.

The full time series for goods imports from and exports to the EU contains a discontinuity from January 2021 resulting from the move from Intrastat to customs declarations, as detailed in our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: adjustments to 2021 EU imports estimates article. We are continuing to work with HMRC to consider possible options to account for this discontinuity.

Separately, Staged Customs Controls (SCC) have affected data on imports of non-controlled goods from the EU to Great Britain in the first six months of 2022.

Staged Customs Controls

In 2021, the use of SCC allowed customs declarations to be reported up to 175 days after the date of import for imports of non-controlled goods from the EU to Great Britain. The UK government introduced full customs controls in January 2022, while July 2022 marked the first full month of data where delayed customs declarations submitted under SCC could not be included. Temporary arrangements still apply for imports of goods from Ireland to Great Britain.

We published an Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: further update on Staged Customs Controls article on 3 July 2023. This article presents our latest analysis and findings in our ongoing investigation into the impact of SCC on UK trade statistics.

We will continue with our analysis in collaboration with colleagues at HMRC, and we plan to include a finalised adjustment in our upcoming GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2023 and Balance of payments, UK: April to June 2023 releases publishing on 29 September 2023. This will represent a downward adjustment to EU imports of trade in goods data for the period from January to June 2022.

Total imports of goods in "current prices" (explained in Section 10: Glossary) increased by £2.0 billion (4.2%) in May 2023. Imports from non-EU countries rose by £1.3 billion while imports from EU countries grew by £0.7 billion (Table 1 and Figure 1).

Total exports of goods decreased by £1.4 billion (4.4%) in May 2023, largely because of a £1.1 billion fall in exports to EU countries, while exports to non-EU countries fell by £0.3 billion. The monthly balance of trade in goods therefore widened by £3.5 billion in May to a deficit of £19.8 billion.

Imports from the EU were £3.0 billion higher than from non-EU countries in May 2023, while exports to the EU were £1.2 billion lower than exports to non-EU countries. The trade in goods deficit with both EU and non-EU countries widened in May 2023.

Figure 1: Imports from both EU and non-EU countries rose in May 2023, while exports to both decreased

EU and non-EU goods imports and exports, excluding precious metals, current prices, seasonally adjusted, January 2020 to May 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following EU exit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

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After removing the effect of inflation by calculating "chained volume measures" (explained in Section 10: Glossary), total goods imports increased by £2.3 billion (5.9%) in May 2023 (Figure 2). This was because imports from non-EU countries rose by £1.4 billion (8.3%) and imports from EU countries grew by £0.9 billion (4.1%).

Total goods exports fell by £0.8 billion (3.2%) in May 2023, after the effect of inflation has been removed. Exports to EU countries decreased by £0.6 billion (4.9%) and exports to non-EU countries fell by £0.2 billion (1.5%).

Figure 2: In inflation-adjusted terms non-EU imports continued to rise in May 2023, after a period of steady decline

Imports and exports of goods, excluding precious metals, current prices and chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, EU and non-EU, January 2020 to May 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following EU exit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

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Imports from the EU increased by £0.7 billion in May 2023. This was because of a £0.8 billion rise in machinery and transport equipment imports and increases of £0.1 billion in imports of chemicals and material manufactures (Figure 3). These increases were partially offset by a £0.3 billion decrease in fuel imports.

The rise in imports of machinery and transport equipment was because of an increase in imports of cars from Germany. In a recent press release, the Federal Statistical Office of Germany reported that German manufacturers saw a surge in orders for cars and other vehicles in May. This is likely linked to easing supply chain issues which, according to The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, has contributed to the continued growth of new car registrations in the UK. The fall in fuel imports was because of reduced imports of refined oil from the Netherlands.

Imports from non-EU countries increased by £1.3 billion (5.9%) in May 2023. Imports of machinery and transport equipment rose by £0.9 billion, spread across multiple lower-level commodities from a range of countries. Additionally, imports of material manufactures increased by £0.2 billion with an increase in imports of non-ferrous metals from South Africa and the United States. Fuel imports fell by £0.2 billion in May 2023, with a fall in gas imports from Norway and the United States.

Figure 3: Imports of goods from EU countries increased in May 2023, led by rises in machinery and transport equipment

EU and non-EU goods imports by commodity, current prices, seasonally adjusted, May 2021 to May 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following EU exit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

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Volatile fuel prices have influenced trends in the value of fuel imports since autumn 2021. The total value of fuel imported from non-EU countries decreased in May 2023 as gas prices fell after the small increase in April 2023, as shown in our Trade in goods: fuels other than oil data time series. When the effect of inflation is removed, fuel imports from non-EU countries increased in May 2023 (Figure 4).

Goods exports

Exports to the EU fell by £1.1 billion (6.8%) in May 2023. Exports of fuels and chemicals both fell by £0.3 billion, while exports of machinery and transport equipment and material manufactures decreased by £0.2 billion (Figure 5). The main contribution to the fall in fuel exports came from reduced exports of crude oil to Germany and Sweden, while falls in medicinal and pharmaceutical products to Germany and Belgium led the decreased exports of chemicals.

Exports to non-EU countries fell by £0.3 billion (2.1%) in May 2023. This fall was mainly because of a £0.2 billion decrease in fuel exports, primarily of refined oil to Nigeria.

Figure 5: Exports of goods to EU countries decreased in May 2023, led by falls in exports of fuels to both EU and non-EU countries

EU and non-EU goods exports by commodity, current prices, seasonally adjusted, May 2021 to May 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following EU exit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

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Early estimates suggest imports of services increased by around £0.2 billion (0.9%) in May 2023, while exports increased by around £0.2 billion (0.5%) (Figure 6). Monthly figures for trade in services for May 2023 are forecast from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2023 data, using additional data sources. View our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) report for more detail on how our trade in services statistics are compiled.

Although price rises have affected trade in services in recent months, there was little difference between trade in services trends in value and inflation-adjusted terms in May. After removing the effect of inflation, imports of services increased by £0.2 billion (0.9%) and exports of services increased £0.2 billion (0.5%) in May 2023.

In May, S&P Global's Purchasing Managers' Index reported growth both in service sector output and inflows of work into the service sector. Strong demand was seen for financial services and IT services. Demand for consumer services remained high, though there were signs this growth could stall in the near future.

Figure 6: Imports and exports of services are estimated to have increased slightly in both value and inflation-adjusted terms in May 2023

Imports and exports of services, current prices and chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, January 2020 to May 2023

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In value terms, trade in services is at higher levels than before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Imports of services have increased by £6.5 billion (36.6%) compared with February 2020, while exports of services have risen by £7.3 billion (25.0%). After the effect of inflation has been removed, trade in services have also surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Imports of services are £1.7 billion (9.3%) above February 2020 while exports are £1.0 billion (3.4%) higher.

Total imports of goods decreased by £6.8 billion (4.4%) in the three months to May 2023, compared with the three months to February 2023 (Table 2). Goods imports fell from both EU and non-EU countries over this period. Exports of goods decreased by £0.6 billion (0.6%) in the three months to May 2023, with a fall in exports to the EU partially offset by a rise in exports to non-EU countries.

Imports of services increased by an estimated £3.1 billion (4.5%) in the three months to May 2023 compared with the three months to February 2023, while exports of services rose by £2.8 billion (2.6%).

The total goods and services deficit, excluding precious metals, narrowed by £5.9 billion to £18.2 billion in the three months to May 2023 (Figure 7). Imports fell by £3.7 billion, whereas exports grew by £2.2 billion. When removing the effect of inflation, the total trade deficit, excluding precious metals, narrowed by £2.9 billion to £12.2 billion.

The trade in goods deficit in value terms, excluding precious metals, narrowed by £6.2 billion to £54.7 billion in the three months to May 2023. The trade in services surplus narrowed slightly by £0.3 billion to £36.5 billion.

Explore the 2022 trade in goods data using our interactive tools. Our data break down UK trade in goods with 234 countries by 125 commodities.

Use our map to get a better understanding of what goods the UK traded with a country. Select a country by hovering over it (desktop only) or use the drop-down menu.

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Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, see our Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016 article. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are official statistics and no longer experimental.

2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, through the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases, such as UN Comtrade.

3. This interactive map denotes country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out in Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 2.9MB) and do not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

You can also explore the 2022 trade in goods data by commodity, such as car exports to the EU, and UK tea or coffee imports.

Select a commodity from the drop-down menu or select the levels with your digit or cursor to explore the data.

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Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, see our Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016 article. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are no longer experimental.
2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, via the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases, such as UN Comtrade.
3. These interactive charts denote country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out within Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 2.9MB) and does not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

In accordance with our National Accounts Revisions Policy, the data in this release have been revised from January 2023 to April 2023 for both goods and services.

Chained volume measures (CVMs)

CVM estimates are a "real" measure in that they have had the effect of inflation removed to measure the change in volume between consecutive periods, fixing the prices of goods and services in one period (known as the base year, which is 2019 for trade).

Current price measures (CPs)

These estimates measure the actual price paid for goods or services and are not adjusted for inflation. Unless otherwise stated, all current price data are provided in £ million and are seasonally adjusted.

Inflation

Inflation is the change in the average price level of goods and services over a period of time.

Implied deflators (IDEFs)

An IDEF shows the implied change in average prices for the respective components of the trade balance, for example, the IDEF for imports will show the average price movement for imports.

Precious metals and non-monetary gold

Precious metals include precious metals, silver, platinum, and palladium, and it forms part of the commodity group "unspecified goods". Non-monetary gold comprises the majority of this group and is the technical term for gold bullion not owned by central banks.

Trade balance

The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports or exports minus imports. When the value of exports is greater than the value of imports, the trade balance is in surplus. When the value of imports is greater than the value of exports, the trade balance is in deficit. The balance is sometimes referred to as "net exports".

A full Glossary of economic terms is available.

The UK leaving the EU and the subsequent transition period, along with the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, supply chain disruption and global recession, have caused higher levels of volatility in trade statistics in recent years. The monthly analysis shows short-term trade movements, but it is important to note that monthly data can be erratic, and therefore movements should be treated with caution.

Data sources

Data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) make up over 90% of trade in goods value and are the main source for this release. HMRC data collection changes following Brexit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

Data from the quarterly International Trade in Services (ITIS) Survey make up over 50% of trade in services data. View our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) for more detail. 

Data from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) are the main source for travel services, historically making up around 8% of total imports. Following suspension of the survey in 2020, the survey has now largely resumed, with a very small number of ports yet to have resumed interviewing. We advise continued caution when using these data until the IPS is fully operational. View our UK Trade QMI for more detail.

Unless otherwise specified, data within this bulletin are in current prices and have not been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation. In line with international standards, our headline trade statistics contain the UK's exports and imports of non-monetary gold. View our National Accounts article: A brief explanation of non-monetary gold in national accounts for more information.

Method

Trade is measured through both exports and imports of goods and services. Data are supplied by over 30 sources, including several administrative sources, with HMRC being the largest for trade in goods.

Office for National Statistics (ONS) UK trade figures are produced on a country of dispatch basis, which records imports as coming from the country dispatching the shipments. However, trade figures can also be produced on a country of origin basis, as is used by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ). Users should be aware of the different accounting methods used and the resulting differences across trade figures.

Monthly trade in services data are taken from quarterly trade in services data and split across the months within that quarter through estimation. In months where we have a full quarter's data, we revise previous estimates of monthly values within that quarter.

View more detailed information about the methods used to produce UK trade statistics in our UK Trade methodology.

The UK Statistics Authority suspended the National Statistics designation of UK trade (PDF, 72.9KB) on 14 November 2014. We have now responded to all of the specific requirements of the Office for Statistics Regulation's (OSR) reassessment of UK trade. As part of our engagement with the OSR team, we are sharing our continuous improvement and development plans to support UK trade statistics regaining National Statistics status. We welcome feedback on our new trade statistics, developments, and future plans by email to trade@ons.gov.uk.

Trade asymmetries

Asymmetries can be caused by a range of conceptual and measurement variations between the estimation practices of different countries. Statistical agencies are likely to have different source data, estimation methods, and methodological, geographical, and definitional differences. More information on UK trade asymmetries is published by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). Analysis on trade in services asymmetries is published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), in our Asymmetries in trade data articles.

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).