UK trade: October 2024

• The value of goods imports increased by £2.6 billion (5.8%) in October 2024, with both EU and non-EU imports rising.
• The value of goods exports fell slightly by £0.1 billion (0.4%) in October 2024, with a fall in exports to non-EU countries largely offset by a rise in exports to the EU.
• Exports to the EU were higher than to non-EU countries for the first time since November 2023.
• The total goods and services trade deficit narrowed by £0.9 billion to £10.1 billion in the three months to October 2024, because of a larger fall in imports than exports.
• The trade in goods deficit narrowed by £1.8 billion to £51.4 billion in the three months to October 2024, while the trade in services surplus is estimated to have narrowed by £1.0 billion to £41.3 billion.

The value of total imports of goods in "current prices", which are not adjusted for inflation (as explained in Section 9: Glossary), rose by £2.6 billion (5.8%) in October 2024. Imports from non-EU countries increased by £1.4 billion (6.9%), while imports from the EU increased by £1.2 billion (5.0%) (Table 1 and Figure 1).

Total exports of goods fell slightly by £0.1 billion (0.4%) in October 2024, as a £0.7 billion (4.6%) fall in exports to non-EU countries was mostly offset by a £0.6 billion (4.1%) rise in exports to the EU.

Imports from the EU were £4.4 billion higher than from non-EU countries in October 2024, while exports to the EU were £0.1 billion higher than exports to non-EU countries.

Figure 1: Exports to non-EU countries fell in October 2024, while EU exports increased

EU and non-EU goods imports and exports, excluding precious metals, current prices, seasonally adjusted, October 2021 to October 2024

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After removing the effect of inflation by calculating "chained volume measures" (explained in Section 9: Glossary), total goods imports increased by £1.4 billion (2.9%) in October 2024 (Figure 2). This increase was primarily because of a £1.2 billion (5.0%) rise in imports from the EU, while imports from non-EU countries rose by £0.2 billion (1.0%).

Total goods exports decreased by £0.7 billion (2.6%) in October 2024, after the effect of inflation was removed. This was because exports to non-EU countries decreased by £0.9 billion (6.2%), while exports to the EU rose by £0.2 billion (1.1%).

Figure 2: Imports from both EU and non-EU countries rose in both value and inflation adjusted terms in October 2024

Imports and exports of goods, excluding precious metals, current prices and chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, EU and non-EU, October 2021 to October 2024

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Goods imports

The value of imports from the EU increased by £1.2 billion (5.0%) in October 2024. This was because of a £0.5 billion rise in imports of machinery and transport equipment and a £0.3 billion rise in fuel imports (Figure 3). The rise in imports of machinery and transport equipment was driven by increased imports of aircraft from Germany and cars from Spain. The rise in fuel imports was because of increased imports of refined oil from the Netherlands.

The value of imports from non-EU countries increased by £1.4 billion (6.9%) in October 2024. This was because of a £0.7 billion rise in imports of machinery and transport equipment, and a £0.3 billion rise in miscellaneous manufactures imports. Increased imports of electrical machinery from China was the main driver of the rise in machinery and transport equipment, while the rise in miscellaneous manufactures was mainly because of increased imports of clothing from Bangladesh.

Figure 3: Imports of machinery and transport equipment from both EU and non-EU countries rose in October 2024, following a decrease the previous month

EU and non-EU goods imports by commodity, current prices, seasonally adjusted, October 2022 to October 2024

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Goods exports

The value of exports to the EU increased by £0.6 billion (4.1%) in October 2024. Exports of miscellaneous manufactures, chemicals, fuels and machinery and transport equipment all rose by £0.1 billion, with small changes across multiple countries and commodities (Figure 4).

The value of exports to non-EU countries decreased by £0.7 billion (4.6%) in October 2024, because of £0.4 billion falls in both material manufactures and fuel exports and a £0.2 billion fall in exports of machinery and transport equipment. The decrease in fuels was because of reduced exports of crude oil to the United States, while reduced exports of aircraft to Switzerland contributed to the fall in machinery and transport equipment.

Figure 4: Exports of machinery and transport equipment to non-EU countries decreased for a second consecutive month in October 2024

EU and non-EU goods exports by commodity, current prices, seasonally adjusted, October 2022 to October 2024

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Early estimates suggest imports of services decreased by £1.7 billion (6.3%) in value terms in October 2024, while exports of services increased by around £0.7 billion (1.8%) (Figure 5). After removing the effect of inflation, imports of services decreased by £0.5 billion (2.0%) while exports of services increased by £0.9 billion (2.5%).

Monthly figures for trade in services for October 2024 are forecast from Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024 data, using additional data sources. Our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) report has more detail on how our trade in services statistics are compiled.

The S&P Global UK Services PMI reported continued service sector growth in October, although the rate of growth was slower than previous months. While improving domestic economic conditions helped to boost overall business activity in October, heightened business uncertainty ahead of the Autumn Budget and geopolitical tensions caused growth to slow. However, October data indicated a rise in new work for export sales, with stronger demand from EU clients cited as a strong driver of this growth. Input cost inflation rose in the period, however this still remains below the levels seen in the first half of 2024.

Figure 5: Imports of services decreased in both value and inflation adjusted terms in October 2024

Imports and exports of services, current prices and chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, October 2021 to October 2024

Notes:

1. Monthly figures for trade in services for October 2024 are forecast from Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024 data, using additional data sources. Early estimates of trade in services are revised in line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy.

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Total imports of goods decreased by £3.5 billion (2.4%) in the three months to October 2024, compared with the three months to July 2024 (Table 2). Goods imports from the EU decreased by £1.3 billion (1.6%), and goods imports from non-EU countries fell by £2.2 billion (3.4%).

Exports of goods decreased by £1.7 billion (1.8%) in the three months to October 2024. Goods exports to the EU decreased by £0.5 billion (1.1%), while goods exports to non-EU countries decreased by £1.2 billion (2.5%).

Early estimates indicate that imports of services decreased by around £1.0 billion (1.2%) in the three months to October 2024, while exports of services fell by an estimated £1.9 billion (1.6%).

The total goods and services trade balance, excluding precious metals, narrowed by £0.9 billion to a deficit of £10.1 billion in the three months to October 2024, compared with the three months to July 2024 (Figure 6). This was because of a larger decrease in imports than exports. Total exports decreased by £3.6 billion over this period, and imports fell by £4.5 billion. When removing the effect of inflation, the total trade deficit, excluding precious metals, widened by £2.8 billion to £20.5 billion.

The trade in goods deficit in value terms, excluding precious metals, narrowed by £1.8 billion to £51.4 billion in the three months to October 2024 compared with the three months to July 2024. This was because of a larger fall in goods imports than exports. The trade in services surplus is estimated to have narrowed by around £1.0 billion to £41.3 billion, because of a larger decrease in services exports than services imports.

Explore the 2023 trade in goods data using our interactive tools. Our data break down UK trade in goods with 234 countries by 125 commodities.

Use our map to get a better understanding of what goods the UK traded with a country. Select a country by hovering over it (desktop only) or use the drop-down menu.

Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, see our Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016 article. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are official statistics and no longer in development.

2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, through the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases, such as United Nations (UN) Comtrade.

3. This interactive map denotes country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out in Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 2.9MB) and do not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

You can also explore the 2023 trade in goods data by commodity, such as car exports to the EU, and UK tea or coffee imports.

Select a commodity from the drop-down menu or select the levels with your digit or cursor to explore the data.

Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, see our Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016 article. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are no longer in development.

2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, through the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases, such as UN Comtrade.

3. These interactive charts denote country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out within Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 2.9MB) and do not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

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In accordance with our National Accounts Revisions Policy, the data in this release have not been revised and only include new data for October 2024.

Chained volume measures

Chained volume measures (CVMs) are a "real" measure in that they have had the effect of inflation removed to measure the change in volume between consecutive periods, fixing the prices of goods and services in one period (known as the base year, which is 2022 for trade).

Current price measures

Current price estimates (CPs) measure the actual price paid for goods or services and are not adjusted for inflation. Unless otherwise stated, all current price data are provided in £ million and are seasonally adjusted.

Inflation

Inflation is the change in the average price level of goods and services over a period of time.

Implied deflators

An implied deflator (IDEF) shows the implied change in average prices for the respective components of the trade balance, for example, the IDEF for imports will show the average price movement for imports.

Precious metals and non-monetary gold

Precious metals include non-monetary gold, silver, platinum and palladium. The category forms part of the commodity group "unspecified goods". Non-monetary gold comprises the majority of this group and is the technical term for gold bullion not owned by central banks.

Trade balance

The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports or exports minus imports. When the value of exports is greater than the value of imports, the trade balance is in surplus. When the value of imports is greater than the value of exports, the trade balance is in deficit. The balance is sometimes referred to as "net exports".

A full Glossary of economic terms is available.

The UK leaving the EU and the subsequent transition period, along with the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, supply chain disruption and global recession, have caused higher levels of volatility in trade statistics in recent years. The monthly analysis shows short-term trade movements, but it is important to note that monthly data can be erratic, so movements should be treated with caution.

Data collection changes

Since the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020, the arrangements for how the UK trades with the EU changed.

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) implemented some data collection changes following Brexit, which affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. We have made adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU in 2021 and 2022 to account for these changes, however a structural break remains in the full time series for goods imports from and exports to the EU from January 2021.

We advise caution when interpreting and drawing conclusions from these statistics. Our article, Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: summary of adjustments and the structural break from 2021, provides more detail.

Data sources

Data from HMRC make up over 90% of trade in goods value and are the main source for this release. Data from the quarterly International Trade in Services (ITIS) Survey make up over 50% of trade in services data. View our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) report for more detail.

Data from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) are the main source for travel services. The survey has now resumed following the suspension in 2020, with data for Northern Ireland not currently being recorded.

Unless otherwise specified, data within this bulletin are in current prices and have not been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation. In line with international standards, our headline trade statistics contain the UK's exports and imports of non-monetary gold. More information can be found in our National Accounts article: A brief explanation of non-monetary gold in national accounts.

Method

Trade is measured through both exports and imports of goods and services. Data are supplied by over 30 sources, including several administrative sources, with HMRC being the largest for trade in goods.

Our UK trade figures are produced using country of dispatch, which records imports as coming from the country dispatching the shipments. However, trade figures can also be produced using country of origin, as is used by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ). Users should be aware of the different accounting methods used and the resulting differences across trade figures.

Monthly trade in services data are taken from quarterly trade in services data and split across the months within that quarter through estimation. In months where we have a full quarter's data, we revise previous estimates of monthly values within that quarter.

View more detailed information about the methods used to produce UK trade statistics in our UK Trade methodology.

Strengths and limitations

National Statistics designation status

The UK Statistics Authority suspended the National Statistics designation of UK trade (PDF, 72.9KB) on 14 November 2014. We have now responded to all of the specific requirements of the Office for Statistics Regulation's (OSR's) reassessment of UK trade. As part of our engagement with the OSR team, we are sharing our continuous improvement and development plans to support UK trade statistics regaining Accredited official statistics status. We welcome feedback on our new trade statistics, developments, and future plans by email to trade@ons.gov.uk.

Trade asymmetries

Asymmetries can be caused by a range of conceptual and measurement variations between the estimation practices of different countries. Statistical agencies are likely to have different source data, estimation methods, and methodological, geographical, and definitional differences. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) publishes more information on UK trade asymmetries. We publish analysis on trade in services asymmetries in our Asymmetries in trade data articles.

More quality and methodology information (QMI) on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our UK Trade QMI.