UK trade: January 2024

• The value of goods imports increased by £0.9 billion (2.0%) in January 2024, with rises in fuel imports from both EU and non-EU countries.
• While there has been recent disruption to shipping in the Red Sea, there is no evidence that this has affected imports in January 2024.
• The value of goods exports decreased slightly by £0.1 billion (0.5%) in January 2024, with a fall in exports to non-EU countries partially offset by a rise in exports to the EU.
• The total goods and services trade deficit widened by £2.2 billion to £13.8 billion in the three months to January 2024 and has been relatively stable since Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2023.
• The trade in goods deficit narrowed by £2.3 billion to £48.0 billion in the three months to January 2024 because of a larger fall in goods imports than exports.
• The trade in services surplus is estimated to have narrowed by £4.5 billion to £34.2 billion in the three months to January 2024 because of a substantial fall in services exports.

Total imports of goods in "current prices", which are not adjusted for inflation (explained in Section 9: Glossary), increased by £0.9 billion (2.0%) in January 2024. Imports from non-EU countries rose by £0.7 billion (3.8%), and imports from the EU increased by £0.2 billion (0.7%) (Table 1 and Figure 1).

Total exports of goods decreased by £0.1 billion (0.5%) in January 2024, because of a £0.3 billion (1.7%) fall in exports to non-EU countries, while exports to the EU increased by £0.1 billion (0.8%).

Imports from the EU were £5.8 billion higher than from non-EU countries in January 2024, while exports to the EU were £0.3 billion lower than exports to non-EU countries.

Figure 1: Imports from both EU and non-EU countries increased in January 2024

EU and non-EU goods imports and exports, excluding precious metals, current prices, seasonally adjusted, January 2021 to January 2024

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After removing the effect of inflation by calculating "chained volume measures" (explained in Section 9: Glossary), total goods imports increased by £0.7 billion (1.8%) in January 2024 (Figure 2). Imports from non-EU countries rose by £0.8 billion (4.8%) while imports from the EU fell by £0.1 billion (0.4%).

Total goods exports fell by £0.5 billion (2.2%) in January 2024, after the effect of inflation is removed. This was because exports to non-EU countries decreased by £0.6 billion (4.3%) while exports to the EU increased by less than £0.1 billion.

Figure 2: Imports increased in both value and inflation-adjusted terms in January 2024

Imports and exports of goods, excluding precious metals, current prices and chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, EU and non-EU, January 2021 to January 2024

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Goods imports

Imports from the EU increased by £0.2 billion (0.7%) in January 2024. This was mainly because of a £0.3 billion rise in fuel imports and £0.2 billion rise in imports of food and live animals, as well as smaller increases in other commodities. These increases were partially offset by a £0.5 billion fall in imports of machinery and transport equipment (Figure 3). The rise in fuel imports was because of increased imports of refined oil from Sweden and crude oil from Norway, while the fall in imports of machinery and transport equipment was because of reduced imports of aircraft from Germany and France.

Imports from non-EU countries increased by £0.7 billion (3.8%) in January 2024. This was mainly because of £0.2 billion increases in miscellaneous manufactures, fuels and material manufactures. The rise in imports of miscellaneous manufactures was because of slight increases in clothing imports from Bangladesh and China, as well as an increase in imports of works of art from the United States. An increase in imports of gas and both refined and crude oil from the United States contributed to the rise in fuel imports, with imports of refined oil from the United Arab Emirates also increasing.

While there has been recent disruption to shipping in the Red Sea, with ships re-routing around the Cape of Good Hope, as explained in the BBC News article, What do Red Sea assaults mean for global trade?, there is no evidence that this has affected imports in January 2024. Our Weekly shipping indicators dataset shows that there was a similar number of cargo and tanker ship visits in January 2024 compared with previous years. We will continue to monitor the impact of the disruption in the Red Sea in future releases.

Figure 3: Imports of fuels from both EU and non-EU countries rose in January 2024, while imports of machinery and transport equipment fell

EU and non-EU goods imports by commodity, current prices, seasonally adjusted, January 2022 to January 2024

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Goods exports

Exports to the EU increased by £0.1 billion (0.8%) in January 2024. This was because of a £0.5 billion rise in fuel exports and a £0.3 billion rise in chemical exports, which were mostly offset by a £0.5 billion fall in exports of machinery and transport equipment and a £0.1 billion fall in exports of material manufactures (Figure 4). The rise in fuel exports was mainly because of a rise in exports of crude oil to Poland and refined oil to Belgium. The fall in exports of machinery and transport equipment was because of a decrease in car exports to Spain, and a fall in exports of aircraft to Germany.

Exports to non-EU countries decreased by £0.3 billion (1.7%) in January 2024. Exports of fuels and chemicals decreased by £0.5 billion and £0.2 billion, respectively, which was partially offset by a £0.3 billion rise in material manufactures exports. The fall in fuels exports was primarily because of a fall in crude oil exports to South Korea, and the fall in chemical exports was linked to a decrease in exports of medicinal and pharmaceutical products and inorganic chemicals to the United States.

Figure 4: Exports of goods to non-EU countries decreased in January 2024, with a fall in exports of fuels and chemicals

EU and non-EU goods exports by commodity, current prices, seasonally adjusted, January 2022 to January 2024

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Early estimates suggest imports of services increased by around £0.1 billion (0.4%) in value terms in January 2024, and exports also rose by £0.1 billion (0.3%) (Figure 5). Although price rises have affected trade in services in recent months, in January 2024 there was little difference between trade in services trends in value and inflation-adjusted terms.

Monthly figures for trade in services for January 2024 are estimated from Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023 data, using additional data sources. View our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) for more detail on how our trade in services statistics are compiled.

The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index for January reported an increase in UK service sector output, with business activity and new business growth both rising. The main contribution to this growth was from the hospitality, transport, tech and financial services sectors. Business services growth remained low despite an increase in December.

Figure 5: Imports and exports of services are estimated to have increased slightly in both value and inflation-adjusted terms in January 2024

Imports and exports of services, current prices and chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, January 2021 to January 2024

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Total imports of goods decreased by £3.8 billion (2.6%) in the three months to January 2024, compared with the three months to October 2023 (Table 2). Goods imports from non-EU countries fell by £3.5 billion (5.5%) primarily because of a fall in imports of machinery and transport equipment. Goods imports from the EU fell slightly by £0.3 billion (0.3%). Exports of goods decreased by £1.4 billion (1.6%) in the three months to January 2024, because of a £0.9 billion (1.9%) fall in exports to non-EU countries, and a £0.6 billion (1.3%) fall in exports to the EU.

Early estimates for imports of services fell by £0.3 billion (0.4%) in the three months to January 2024 compared with the three months to October 2023, while exports of services fell by an estimated £4.8 billion (4.1%).

The total goods and services trade balance, excluding precious metals, widened by £2.2 billion to a deficit of £13.8 billion in the three months to January 2024 (Figure 6). Exports fell by £6.3 billion over this period, and imports fell by £4.0 billion. However, the total goods and services trade balance, excluding precious metals, has remained relatively stable since Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2023. When removing the effect of inflation, the total trade deficit, excluding precious metals, widened by £2.8 billion to £15.2 billion.

The trade in goods deficit in value terms, excluding precious metals, narrowed by £2.3 billion to £48.0 billion in the three months to January 2024, as goods imports fell by more than exports. The trade in services surplus is estimated to have narrowed by £4.5 billion to £34.2 billion, influenced by a substantial fall in exports of services.

Explore the 2023 trade in goods data using our interactive tools. Our data break down UK trade in goods with 234 countries by 125 commodities.

Use our map to get a better understanding of what goods the UK traded with a country. Select a country by hovering over it (desktop only) or use the drop-down menu.

Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, see our Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016 article. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are official statistics and no longer experimental.

2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, through the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases, such as UN Comtrade.

3. This interactive map denotes country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out in Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 2.9MB) and do not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

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You can also explore the 2023 trade in goods data by commodity, such as car exports to the EU, and UK tea or coffee imports.

Select a commodity from the drop-down menu or select the levels with your digit or cursor to explore the data.

Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, see our Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016 article. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are no longer experimental.

2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, via the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases, such as UN Comtrade.

3. These interactive charts denote country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out within Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 2.9MB) and does not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

Download the data

In accordance with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, the data in this release have not been revised and only include new data for January 2024.

Chained volume measures

Chained volume measures (CVMs) are a “real” measure in that they have had the effect of inflation removed to measure the change in volume between consecutive periods, fixing the prices of goods and services in one period (known as the base year, which is 2019 for trade).

Current price measures

Current price estimates (CPs) measure the actual price paid for goods or services and are not adjusted for inflation. Unless otherwise stated, all current price data are provided in £ million and are seasonally adjusted.

Inflation

Inflation is the change in the average price level of goods and services over a period of time.

Implied deflators

An implied deflator (IDEF) shows the implied change in average prices for the respective components of the trade balance, for example, the IDEF for imports will show the average price movement for imports.

Precious metals and non-monetary gold

Precious metals include precious metals, silver, platinum and palladium, and it forms part of the commodity group “unspecified goods”. Non-monetary gold comprises the majority of this group and is the technical term for gold bullion not owned by central banks.

Trade balance

The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports or exports minus imports. When the value of exports is greater than the value of imports, the trade balance is in surplus. When the value of imports is greater than the value of exports, the trade balance is in deficit. The balance is sometimes referred to as “net exports”.

A full Glossary of economic terms is available.

The UK leaving the EU and the subsequent transition period, along with the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, supply chain disruption and global recession, have caused higher levels of volatility in trade statistics in recent years. The monthly analysis shows short-term trade movements, but it is important to note that monthly data can be erratic, and therefore movements should be treated with caution.

Data collection changes

Since the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020, the arrangements for how the UK trades with the EU changed.

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) implemented some data collection changes following Brexit, which affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. We have made adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU in 2021 and 2022 to account for these changes, however a structural break remains in the full time series for goods imports from and exports to the EU from January 2021.

We therefore advise caution when interpreting and drawing conclusions from these statistics. Our article, Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: summary of adjustments and the structural break from 2021 provides more detail.

Data sources

Data from HMRC make up over 90% of trade in goods value and are the main source for this release. Data from the quarterly International Trade in Services (ITIS) Survey make up over 50% of trade in services data. View our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) for more detail.

Data from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) are the main source for travel services, historically making up around 8% of total imports. The survey has now fully resumed following the suspension in 2020. View our UK Trade QMI for more detail.

Unless otherwise specified, data within this bulletin are in current prices and have not been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation. In line with international standards, our headline trade statistics contain the UK's exports and imports of non-monetary gold. View our National Accounts article: A brief explanation of non-monetary gold in national accounts for more information.

Method

Trade is measured through both exports and imports of goods and services. Data are supplied by over 30 sources, including several administrative sources, with HMRC being the largest for trade in goods.

Office for National Statistics (ONS) UK trade figures are produced on using country of dispatch, which records imports as coming from the country dispatching the shipments. However, trade figures can also be produced using country of origin, as is used by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ). Users should be aware of the different accounting methods used and the resulting differences across trade figures.

Monthly trade in services data are taken from quarterly trade in services data and split across the months within that quarter through estimation. In months where we have a full quarter's data, we revise previous estimates of monthly values within that quarter.

View more detailed information about the methods used to produce UK trade statistics in our UK Trade methodology.

National Statistics designation status

The UK Statistics Authority suspended the National Statistics designation of UK trade (PDF, 72.9KB) on 14 November 2014. We have now responded to all of the specific requirements of the Office for Statistics Regulation's (OSR) reassessment of UK trade. As part of our engagement with the OSR team, we are sharing our continuous improvement and development plans to support UK trade statistics regaining Accredited official statistics status. We welcome feedback on our new trade statistics, developments, and future plans by email to trade@ons.gov.uk.

Trade asymmetries

Asymmetries can be caused by a range of conceptual and measurement variations between the estimation practices of different countries. Statistical agencies are likely to have different source data, estimation methods, and methodological, geographical, and definitional differences. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) publishes more information on UK trade asymmetries. Analysis on trade in services asymmetries is published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), in our Asymmetries in trade data articles.

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).