UK trade: January 2023

• The value of goods imports decreased by £4.9 billion (8.7%) in January 2023; after removing the effect of inflation, imports of goods fell by £4.1 billion (9.3%).
• Goods imports from the EU fell by £2.5 billion (8.8%) and those from non-EU countries fell by £2.4 billion (8.7%) in January 2023.
• Lower gas prices reduced fuel imports in value terms from non-EU countries; when the effect of inflation is removed, fuel imports increased.
• The value of goods exports decreased by £0.6 billion (1.8%) in January 2023, as exports of fuels, chemicals and material manufactures to EU countries each fell by £0.2 billion; after removing the effect of inflation, total exports of goods decreased by £0.3 billion (1.0%).
• The total trade in goods and services deficit widened by £3.5 billion to £27.6 billion in the three months to January 2023, as exports fell by more than imports.
• The trade in goods deficit widened by £1.4 billion to £64.1 billion in the three months to January 2023, while the trade in services surplus narrowed by £2.1 billion to £36.5 billion.

EU imports and exports

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) implemented a data collection change affecting data on goods exports from Great Britain (GB) to the EU in January 2021, and data on goods imports from the EU to GB in January 2022. We have applied adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU for 2021 to reflect this data collection change, which brought imports and exports statistics onto a like-for-like basis in 2021.

The full time series for goods imports from and exports to the EU contains a discontinuity from January 2021 resulting from the move from Intrastat to customs declarations as detailed in our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: adjustments to 2021 EU imports estimates article. We are continuing to work with HMRC to consider possible options to account for this discontinuity.

Separately, Staged Customs Controls (SCC) have affected data on imports of non-controlled goods from the EU to Great Britain (GB) in the first six months of 2022 and is discussed below.

Staged customs controls

In 2021, the use of Staged Customs Controls (SCC) allowed customs declarations to be reported up to 175 days after the date of import for imports of non-controlled goods from the EU to GB. The UK government introduced full customs controls in January 2022, while July 2022 marked the first full month of data where delayed customs declarations submitted under SCC could not be included. Temporary arrangements still apply for imports of goods from Ireland to GB.

We published an Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: update on Staged Customs Controls article on 17 February 2023, summarising the latest analysis on the potential impact of SCC in the first six months of 2022 by comparing Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates of UK goods imports from the EU with Eurostat estimates of EU goods exports to the UK.

We are continuing to work with HMRC to investigate the impact of SCC and consider any adjustments that may be required. We aim to provide a further update on our investigations into the impact of SCC on goods imports from the EU in June 2023.

Total imports of goods decreased by £4.9 billion (8.7%) in January 2023, with imports falling substantially in value terms from both EU and non-EU countries.

Total exports of goods decreased by £0.6 billion (1.8%) in January 2023, with a fall in exports to EU countries partially offset by an increase in exports to non-EU countries (Table 1 and Figure 1).

Imports from the EU were £1.2 billion higher than from non-EU countries, and exports to the EU were £0.2 billion higher than to non-EU countries in January 2023.

Figure 1: Imports of goods from both EU and non-EU countries decreased in January 2023

EU and non-EU goods imports and exports, excluding precious metals, current prices, seasonally adjusted, January 2020 to January 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following EU exit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

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When removing the effect of inflation, total goods imports decreased by £4.1 billion (9.3%) in January 2023. This was mainly because of a £2.8 billion (11.4%) fall in imports from EU countries (Figure 2), while imports from non-EU countries decreased by £1.3 billion (6.7%).

Total goods exports fell by £0.3 billion (1.0%) in January 2023, after the effect of inflation has been removed. Exports to EU and non-EU countries fell by £0.1 billion (0.8%) and £0.2 billion (1.2%), respectively.

Figure 2: When the effect of inflation is removed, trade has remained relatively stable over the past year

Imports and exports of goods, excluding precious metals, current prices and chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, EU and non-EU, January 2020 to January 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following EU exit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

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Good imports

The £2.5 billion (8.8%) decrease in imports from the EU in January 2023 was mainly the result of a £1.5 billion fall in imports of machinery and transport equipment, and a £0.4 billion fall in imports of both chemicals and fuels. Conversely, there was a small increase of £0.2 billion in food and live animal imports (Figure 3).

The fall in machinery and transport equipment imports from the EU followed large ship imports from Germany in December 2022. Trade of ships can be erratic because of the high value of individual purchases and has been very volatile in recent months.

Imports from non-EU countries decreased by £2.4 billion (8.7%) in January 2023. Fuel imports fell by £1.0 billion, because of lower imports of gas from Norway. Additionally, imports of machinery and transport equipment from non-EU countries fell by £0.9 billion; this decrease was influenced by lower electrical machinery imports from China.

Figure 3: Imports of goods from EU countries decreased in January 2023, driven by a fall in imports of machinery and transport equipment

EU and non-EU goods imports by commodity, current prices, seasonally adjusted, January 2021 to January 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following EU exit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

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Volatile fuel prices have influenced trends in the value of fuel imports since autumn 2021. The total value of fuel imported from non-EU countries decreased in January 2023 as gas prices fell following a sharp rise in December as shown in our Trade in Goods: Fuels other than oil time series. However, when the effect of inflation is removed, fuel imports from non-EU countries increased in January 2023 (Figure 4).

Goods exports

The decrease of £0.7 billion (4.2%) in exports to the EU in January 2023 came from a £0.2 billion fall in exports of each of fuels, chemicals and material manufactures (Figure 5). The £0.1 billion (0.9%) rise in exports to non-EU countries was mainly because of an increase of £0.6 billion in exports of chemicals, offset by £0.2 billion falls in fuels and miscellaneous manufactures, as well as smaller decreases from several other commodities.

Higher chemical exports in January 2023 reflected a rise in exports of organic chemicals to the US and medicinal and pharmaceutical products to South Korea. The decrease in fuel exports was linked to falling gas prices, while material manufactures decreased in January because of a fall in exports of non-ferrous metals to non-EU countries; this continues its gradual decline from a peak in exports in September 2022.

Figure 5: Exports of goods to non-EU countries increased in January 2023, because of higher exports of chemicals

EU and non-EU goods exports by commodity, current prices, seasonally adjusted, January 2021 to January 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following EU exit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

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Early estimates suggest imports of services decreased by around £0.1 billion (0.3%) in January 2023, while exports decreased by around £0.2 billion (0.6%) (Figure 6). Monthly figures for trade in services for January 2023 are forecast from Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2022 data, using additional data sources. View our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) report for more detail on how our trade in services statistics are compiled.

Although price rises have affected trade in services in recent months, in January 2023 there was little difference between trade in services trends in value and inflation-adjusted terms. After removing the effect of inflation, imports of services decreased by £0.1 billion (0.3%), and exports of services decreased £0.2 billion (0.6%) in January 2023.

Figure 6: Imports and exports of services slightly decreased in January 2023

Imports and exports of services, current prices and chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, January 2020 to January 2023

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S&P Global's Purchasing Managers' Index for January reported weakness among consumer-facing and transport services, contributing to a general decline for the service sector. Issues affecting companies continued to include the increasing cost of living, higher borrowing costs and staff shortages.

Total imports of goods decreased by £2.7 billion (1.6%) in the three months to January 2023, compared with the previous three months (Table 2). This was the result of lower goods imports from non-EU countries over this period, while imports from EU countries rose. Exports of goods over the same period decreased by £4.0 billion (4.0%), with exports to both EU and non-EU countries falling.

Imports of services decreased slightly by an estimated £0.2 billion (0.3%) in the three months to January 2023 compared with the three months to October 2022, while exports of services fell by £2.4 billion (2.3%).

The total goods and services deficit, excluding precious metals, widened by £3.5 billion to £27.6 billion in the three months to January 2023 (Figure 7), as exports fell by £6.4 billion whereas imports fell by £2.9 billion. When removing the effect of inflation, the total trade deficit, excluding precious metals, widened by £7.7 billion to £17.9 billion.

The trade in goods deficit in value terms, excluding precious metals, widened by £1.4 billion to £64.1 billion in the three months to January 2023 and the trade in services surplus narrowed by £2.1 billion to £36.5 billion.

Explore the 2022 trade in goods data using our interactive tools. Our data break down UK trade in goods with 234 countries by 125 commodities.

Use our map to get a better understanding of what goods the UK traded with a country. Select a country by hovering over it (desktop only) or use the drop-down menu.

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Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, please see our Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016 article. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are official statistics and no longer experimental.
2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, through the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases such as UN Comtrade.
3. This interactive map denotes country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out within Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 1.1MB) and do not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

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You can also explore the 2022 trade in goods data by commodity, such as car exports to the EU, and UK tea or coffee imports.

Select a commodity from the drop-down menu or select the levels with your digit or cursor to explore the data.

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Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, please see our Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016 article. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are no longer experimental.
2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, via the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases such as UN Comtrade.
3. These interactive charts denote country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out within Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 1.1MB) and does not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

Download the data

.xlsx

In accordance with our National Accounts Revisions Policy, the data in this release have not been revised and only include new data for January 2023.

Chained volume measures (CVMs)

CVM estimates are a “real” measure in that they have had the effect of inflation removed to measure the change in volume between consecutive periods, fixing the prices of goods and services in one period (the base year).

Current price measures (CPs)

These estimates measure the actual price paid for goods or services and are not adjusted for inflation. Unless otherwise stated, all current price data are provided in £ million and are seasonally adjusted.

Inflation

Inflation is the change in the average price level of goods and services over a period of time. Implied deflators (IDEFs)

An IDEF shows the implied change in average prices for the respective components of the trade balance, for example, the IDEF for imports will show the average price movement for imports. Precious metals and non-monetary gold

Precious metals include precious metals, silver, platinum and palladium, and it forms part of the commodity group “unspecified goods”. Non-monetary gold comprises the majority of this group and is the technical term for gold bullion not owned by central banks.

Trade balance

The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports or exports minus imports. When the value of exports is greater than the value of imports, the trade balance is in surplus. When the value of imports is greater than the value of exports, the trade balance is in deficit. The balance is sometimes referred to as “net exports”.

A full Glossary of economic terms is available.

The UK leaving the EU and the subsequent transition period, along with the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, supply chain disruption and global recession, have caused higher levels of volatility in trade statistics in recent years. The monthly analysis shows short-term trade movements, but it is important to note that monthly data can be erratic, and therefore movements should be treated with caution.

Data sources

Data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) make up over 90% of trade in goods value and are the main source. HMRC data collection changes following EU exit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

Data from the quarterly International Trade in Services (ITIS) Survey make up over 50% of trade in services data. View our UK trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) for more detail.

Data from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) are the main source for travel services, historically making up around 8% of total imports. Following suspension of the survey in 2020, the survey has now largely resumed, with a very small number of ports yet to have resumed interviewing, we advise continued caution when using these data until the IPS is fully operational. View our UK trade QMI for more detail.

Unless otherwise specified, data within this bulletin are in current prices and have not been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation. In line with international standards, our headline trade statistics contain the UK's exports and imports of non-monetary gold. View more information about our recording of non-monetary gold, as explained in our National Accounts: A brief explanation of non-monetary gold in national accounts article.

Method

Trade is measured through both exports and imports of goods and services. Data are supplied by over 30 sources, including several administrative sources, with HMRC being the largest for trade in goods.

Office for National Statistics (ONS) UK trade figures are produced on a country-of-dispatch basis, which records imports as coming from the country dispatching the shipments. However, trade figures can also be produced on a country-of-origin basis, as is used by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ). Users should be aware of the different accounting methods used, and the resulting differences across trade figures.

Monthly trade in services data are taken from quarterly trade in services data and split across the months within that quarter through estimation. In months where we have a full quarter’s data, we revise previous estimates of monthly values within that quarter.

View more detailed information about the methods used to produce UK trade statistics in our UK trade methodology.

National Statistics designation status

The UK Statistics Authority suspended the National Statistics designation of UK trade (PDF, 72.9KB) on 14 November 2014. We have now responded to all of the specific requirements of the reassessment of UK trade. As part of our engagement with the Office for Statistics Regulation team, we are sharing our continuous improvement and development plans to support UK trade statistics regaining National Statistics status (explained in this report on the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) website). We welcome feedback on our new trade statistics, developments and future plans by email to trade@ons.gov.uk.

Trade asymmetries

Asymmetries can be caused by a range of conceptual and measurement variations between the estimation practices of different countries. Statistical agencies are likely to have different source data, estimation methods, and methodological, geographical and definitional differences. More information on trade in goods asymmetries is published by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC), while analysis on trade in services asymmetries is published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our UK trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).