UK trade : January 2022

• In January 2022, there were changes to the way HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) collect data for both imports from and exports to the EU; because of these changes caution should be taken when interpreting these latest monthly estimates.

• Total imports of goods, excluding precious metals, increased by £4.7 billion (11.0%) in January 2022, because of a £4.7 billion (24.3%) rise in imports from EU countries while imports from non-EU countries remained flat.

• Total exports of goods, excluding precious metals, decreased by £2.5 billion (8.7%) in January 2022, driven by a £3.0 billion (20.7%) decrease in exports to EU countries while exports to non-EU countries increased by £0.6 billion (4.2%).

• The total trade in goods and services deficit, excluding precious metals, widened by £8.6 billion to £21.3 billion in the three months to January 2022.

• The trade in goods deficit, excluding precious metals, widened by £8.7 billion to £51.8 billion in the three months to January 2022, as imports of goods increased by £12.2 billion (10.1%) and exports increased by £3.6 billion (4.6%).

• The trade in services surplus increased slightly in the three months to January 2022 to £30.5 billion.

EU imports

As of January 2022, imports from the EU to Great Britain are now being collected using custom declarations (as with UK imports from the rest of the world) rather than captured by the Intrastat survey.

As a result, our EU to Great Britain import statistics from January 2022 are not directly comparable with previous months. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) have assessed the impact of this change and are confident that the strong rise in imports from the EU this month is predominantly the result of genuine increases in trade rather than being attributed to the data collection change.

EU exports

A recent operational change implemented by HMRC has amended the assumed departure period of goods exports from 5 to 15 days. An automated departure will now be triggered if a trader does not submit a departure notification within 15 days (previously five days) of pre-lodging the export with HMRC.

There were 10 fewer days of EU exports data (where there is an assumed departure date) recorded in January 2022 because of this change, resulting in a break in the timeseries for UK exports to the EU. Future months will not be affected as the equivalent number of days moving into the month will also be moved out.

Of the £3.0 billion (20.7%) decrease in exports to EU countries, HMRC analysis estimates that approximately £2 billion is attributed to this change. It is not possible to break down affects to country or commodity level data and therefore caution should be taken when interpreting exports to the EU for periods that include January 2022 data.

The UK leaving the EU and the subsequent transition period, along with the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, global recession and supply chain disruption, have caused higher levels of volatility in trade statistics in the past two years.

While the monthly bulletin provides analysis of short-term trade movements, comparing 2022 with equivalent 2018 data provides comparisons of recent UK trade estimates with our most recent “stable” period. We also compare 2022 levels with 2021, as we would normally. It is important to note monthly data are erratic and therefore small movements should be treated with caution.

Total imports of goods increased by £4.7 billion (11.0%) in January 2022, because of increasing imports from EU countries, while imports from non-EU countries remained at similar levels to December 2021. Total exports of goods decreased by £2.5 billion (8.7%) in January 2022, driven by a decrease in exports to EU countries (Table 1 and Figure 1).

Imports from EU countries were £0.6 billion higher than from non-EU countries in January 2022. Non-EU imports were higher than EU imports for most of 2021, linked to the large increases in the imports of fuels in the last months of the year. Exports to non-EU countries were £2.5 billion higher than exports to EU countries in January 2022.

Total imports of goods increased by £12.2 billion (10.1%) in the three months to January 2022, compared with the three months to October 2021. Imports from both EU and non-EU countries increased during this time. Exports of goods over the same period increased by £3.6 billion (4.6%), because of increasing exports to both EU and non-EU countries, with exports to non-EU countries showing the greater increase.

It continues to be difficult to assess the extent to which these trade movements reflect short-term trade disruption or longer-term supply chain adjustments. However, the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) reports that 67% of exporters and 72% of importers faced challenges in late January to early February 2022 with additional paperwork, change in transportation costs and customs duties or levels being the top challenges for traders. This compares with 64% of exporters and 61% of importers reporting trade challenges in January to February 2021.

Notes:

1. Caution should be taken when interpreting these data as HM Revenue and Customs changed the collection method for imports from and exports to the EU as of January 2022. Our accompanying blog provides more detail.

Figure 1: Imports of goods from EU countries have increased in January 2022

EU and non-EU goods imports and exports, excluding precious metals, January 2019 to January 2022

Notes:

1. Caution should be taken when interpreting these data as HM Revenue and Customs changed the collection method for imports from and exports to the EU as of January 2022. Our accompanying blog provides more detail.

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Total imports of goods, excluding precious metals, rose by £4.7 billion (11.0%) in January 2022, with imports from EU countries increasing by £4.7 billion (24.3%) and imports from non-EU countries remaining at a similar level to December 2021.

For imports from the EU, the largest increase came from imports of machinery and transport equipment, which increased by £2.0 billion. Contributing to this was the import of cars, however increases were also seen for other transport equipment. A fall in domestic production has been attributed to the increased demand for imported cars.

Imports of food and live animals, miscellaneous manufactures and material manufactures from the EU all increased by more than £0.5 billion in January 2022 (Figure 2).

Chemical imports from both EU and non-EU countries increased in January, by £0.5 billion and £0.3 billion respectively. These increases were driven by imports of medicinal and pharmaceutical products from the Netherlands and China, offsetting a decrease from Belgium. This decline from Belgium likely reflects a fall in demand for vaccine related products after the peak of the booster vaccination rollout in December 2021.

Increases in imports of chemicals and fuels from non-EU countries were offset by a decrease in imports of machinery and transport equipment of £0.4 billion as well as small decreases across the other commodity types. Imports of gas from Norway, the UK’s largest gas supplier, fell by 40% in January 2022. This decrease was offset by increasing imports of gas from the United States. While gas prices in the United States rose in the second half of 2021, they remained lower than European wholesale prices at the end of the year and at the beginning of 2022.

Figure 2: Imports of goods increased in January 2022, driven by increasing imports of machinery and transport equipment and chemicals

EU and non-EU goods imports by commodity, January 2020 to January 2022

Notes:

1. Caution should be taken when interpreting these data as HM Revenue and Customs changed the collection method for imports from and exports to the EU as of January 2022. Our accompanying blog provides more detail.

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Total exports of goods, excluding precious metals, fell by £2.5 billion (8.7%) in January 2022, driven by a £3.0 billion (20.7%) decrease in exports to EU countries while exports to non-EU countries increased by £0.6 billion (4.2%).

Of the £3.0 billion decrease in exports to EU countries, it is estimated that approximately £2 billion of this fall is attributed to the recent operational change implemented by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). It is not possible to break down affects to country or commodity level data and therefore caution should be taken when interpreting exports to the EU in January 2022.

The increase in exports to non-EU countries was driven almost entirely by a £0.5 billion increase in exports of machinery and transport equipment (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Exports of goods to non-EU countries increased in January 2022, driven by increasing exports of machinery and transport equipment

EU and non-EU goods exports by commodity, January 2020 to January 2022

Notes:

1. Caution should be taken when interpreting these data as HM Revenue and Customs changed the collection method for imports from and exports to the EU as of January 2022. Our accompanying blog provides more detail.

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The total trade deficit for goods and services, excluding precious metals, widened by £8.6 billion to £21.3 billion in the three months to January 2022. Total imports increased by £12.1 billion in the latest three month period to £177.2 billion while total exports increased by £3.4 billion to £155.9 billion (Figure 4).

The trade in goods deficit, excluding precious metals, widened by £8.7 billion to £51.8 billion in the three months to January 2022, driven by a large increase in imports, despite a small increase in exports.

Early estimates suggest the trade in services surplus increased slightly in the three months to January 2022 to £30.5 billion driven by a £0.2 billion decrease in imports.

Imports of goods in January 2022 were £15.0 billion (46.2%) higher than January 2021 levels, while exports increased by £4.4 billion (20.5%) over the same period (Table 2). As 2021 data were strongly affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and end of the EU exit transition period, we have also compared them against 2018 trade data. Compared with January 2018, imports increased by £6.4 billion (15.6%) while exports fell by £3.0 billion (10.4%).

Total imports and exports of goods increased in the three months to January 2022 compared with the three months to January 2021. However, exports decreased by £4.8 billion (5.6%) when compared with the same period in 2018, while imports increased by £12.2 billion (10.1%).

Notes:

1. Caution should be taken when interpreting these data as HM Revenue and Customs changed the collection method for imports from and exports to the EU as of January 2022. Our accompanying blog provides more detail.

Explore the 2021 trade in goods data using our interactive tools. Our data breaks down UK trade in goods with 234 countries by 125 commodities.

Use our map to get a better understanding of what goods the UK traded with a country. Select a country by hovering over it or using the drop-down menu.

Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, please see Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are official statistics and no longer experimental.
2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, through the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases such as UN Comtrade.
3. This interactive map denotes country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out within Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 1.1MB) and does not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

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You can also explore the 2021 trade in goods data by commodity, such as car exports to the EU and UK tea or coffee imports.

Select a commodity from the drop-down menu or click through the levels to explore the data.

Download the data

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Download the data

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Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, please see Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are no longer experimental.
2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, via the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases such as UN Comtrade.
3. These interactive charts denote country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out within Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 1.1MB) and does not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

The data in this release have not been revised and only include new data for January 2022. Estimates may be revised in future releases in accordance with the National Accounts Revisions Policy.

HM Revenue and Customs unscheduled correction

Following the publication of UK trade: April 2021, an error was identified in the HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) Overseas Trade data used to compile the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) UK Trade statistics.

Revisions for the period January 2020 to February 2021 were published in our UK trade: May 2021 bulletin on 9 July 2021, taking place outside of the usual National Accounts revisions period in order to ensure the ONS Trade figures reflected the most up-to-date position. Revisions for pre-2020 will be incorporated in the annual Blue Book publication in October 2022.

We have published an article providing users with an indicative estimate of the likely scale and impact of these corrections on the ONS trade statistics before their publication in the August 2022 UK trade statistics, due to be published in October 2022.

Chained volume measures (CVMs)

CVM estimates are a “real” measure in that it has had the effect of inflation removed to measure the change in volume between consecutive periods, fixing the prices of goods and services in one period (the base year).

Current price measures (CPs)

These estimates measure the actual price paid for goods or services and are not adjusted for inflation. Unless otherwise stated, all current price data are provided in £ million and are seasonally adjusted.

Inflation

Inflation is the change in the average price level of goods and services over a period of time.

Implied deflators (IDEFs)

An IDEF shows the implied change in average prices for the respective components of the trade balance, for example, the IDEF for imports will show the average price movement for imports.

Precious metals and non-monetary gold

Precious metals include precious metals, silver, platinum and palladium, and it forms part of the commodity group “unspecified goods”. Non-monetary gold comprises the majority of this group and is the technical term for gold bullion not owned by central banks.

Trade balance

The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports or exports minus imports. When the value of exports is greater than the value of imports, the trade balance is in surplus. When the value of imports is greater than the value of exports, the trade balance is in deficit. The balance is sometimes referred to as “net exports”.

A full Glossary of economic terms is available.

Making our published spreadsheets accessible

Over the coming months, all Office for National Statistics (ONS) datasets will be reviewed to ensure they meet the accessibility standards outlined in the Government Statistical Service (GSS) guidance on releasing statistics in spreadsheets. This is to ensure that all GSS outputs meet Web Content Accessibility Guidelines, a legal requirement set out in The Public Sector Bodies (Websites and Mobile Applications) Accessibility Regulations 2018.

We welcome any feedback on these changes. Share your feedback by emailing the statistical contact at the top of the page.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) data impact

Because of the challenges of data collection during the coronavirus pandemic, we have experienced challenges around the level of survey and data returns for this trade release.

Data sources

Data from the quarterly International Trade in Services (ITIS) Survey make up over 50% of trade in services data. View the UK trade QMI for more detail.

Data from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) are the main source for travel services, making up around 8% of total trade. Following suspension of the survey in 2020 the IPS has now partially resumed. We continue to use the statistical model to produce our regular travel estimates and, for our Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2021 dataset onwards, will use the IPS deliveries to inform these modelled estimates. We will review this decision after deliveries of IPS data fully resume. View the UK trade QMI for more detail.

Data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) make up over 90% of trade in goods value and are the main source. We have worked closely with HMRC to prepare for the change in collection of customs data, which occurred at the end of the EU exit transition period. View further information in Impact of EU exit on the collection and compilation of UK trade statistics and Understanding the latest changes to UK trade figures with the EU.

In line with international standards, our headline trade statistics contain the UK's exports and imports of non-monetary gold. View more information about the ONS’ recording of non-monetary gold.

Unless otherwise specified, data within this bulletin are in current prices. This means they have not been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation.

Method

Trade is measured through both exports and imports of goods and services. Data are supplied by over 30 sources including several administrative sources, with HMRC being the largest for trade in goods.

View more detailed information about the methods used to produce UK trade statistics on the UK trade methodology web pages.

National Statistics designation status

The UK Statistics Authority suspended the National Statistics designation of UK trade (PDF, 72.9KB) on 14 November 2014. We have now responded to all of the specific requirements of the reassessment of UK trade and, as part of our engagement with the Office for Statistics Regulation team, we are sharing our continuous improvement and development plans to support UK trade statistics regaining National Statistics status. We welcome feedback on our new trade statistics, developments and future plans by email to trade@ons.gov.uk.

Trade asymmetries

Asymmetries can be caused by a range of conceptual and measurement variations between the estimation practices of different countries. Statistical agencies are likely to have different source data, estimation methods, and methodological, geographical and definitional differences. More information on trade in goods asymmetries is published by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC), while analysis on trade in services asymmetries is published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the UK trade QMI.