UK trade: February 2023

• The value of goods imports decreased by £0.7 billion (1.4%) in February 2023; after removing the effect of inflation, imports of goods fell by £0.6 billion (1.5%).
• Goods imports from the EU increased by £0.4 billion (1.5%), while those from non-EU countries fell by £1.1 billion (4.5%) in February 2023.
• Fuel imports from non-EU countries reduced in value terms in February 2023, driven by the continued fall in gas prices.
• The value of goods exports decreased by £1.1 billion (3.5%) in February 2023, as exports of fuels to EU countries fell by £0.9 billion; after removing the effect of inflation, total exports of goods decreased by £0.8 billion (3.1%).
• The total trade in goods and services deficit widened by £2.3 billion to £23.5 billion in the three months to February 2023, as exports fell by more than imports.
• The trade in goods deficit widened by £0.9 billion to £61.3 billion in the three months to February 2023, while the trade in services surplus narrowed by £1.4 billion to £37.9 billion.

EU imports and exports

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) implemented a data collection change affecting data on goods exports from Great Britain (GB) to the EU in January 2021, and data on goods imports from the EU to GB in January 2022. We have applied adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU for 2021 to reflect this data collection change, which brought imports and exports statistics onto a like-for-like basis in 2021.

The full time series for goods imports from and exports to the EU contains a discontinuity from January 2021 resulting from the move from Intrastat to customs declarations, as detailed in our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: adjustments to 2021 EU imports estimates article. We are continuing to work with HMRC to consider possible options to account for this discontinuity.

Separately, Staged Customs Controls (SCC) have affected data on imports of non-controlled goods from the EU to Great Britain (GB) in the first six months of 2022 and is discussed below.

Staged Customs Controls

In 2021, the use of Staged Customs Controls (SCC) allowed customs declarations to be reported up to 175 days after the date of import for imports of non-controlled goods from the EU to GB. The UK government introduced full customs controls in January 2022, while July 2022 marked the first full month of data where delayed customs declarations submitted under SCC could not be included. Temporary arrangements still apply for imports of goods from Ireland to GB.

We published an Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: update on Staged Customs Controls article on 17 February 2023. The article summarised the latest analysis on the potential impact of SCC in the first six months of 2022 by comparing Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates of UK goods imports from the EU with Eurostat estimates of EU goods exports to the UK.

We are continuing to work with HMRC to investigate the impact of SCC and consider any adjustments that may be required. We aim to provide a further update on our investigations into the impact of SCC on goods imports from the EU in June 2023.

Total imports of goods in value terms decreased by £0.7 billion (1.4%) in February 2023, with a fall in imports from non-EU countries partially offset by an increase in imports from the EU.

Table 1 and Figure 1 show that total exports of goods decreased by £1.1 billion (3.5%) in February 2023, with a fall in exports to both EU and non-EU countries.

Imports from the EU were £2.5 billion higher than from non-EU countries, while exports to the EU were £0.5 billion lower than to non-EU countries in February 2023.

Figure 1: Imports of goods from non-EU countries continued to decrease in February 2023, while imports from the EU increased

EU and non-EU goods imports and exports, excluding precious metals, current prices, seasonally adjusted, February 2020 to February 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following Brexit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

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When removing the effect of inflation, total goods imports decreased by £0.6 billion (1.5%) in February 2023, as seen in Figure 2. This was mainly because of a £0.8 billion (4.3%) fall in imports from non-EU countries, partially offset by imports from EU countries, which increased by £0.2 billion (1.0%).

Total goods exports fell by £0.8 billion (3.1%) in February 2023, after the effect of inflation has been removed. Exports to the EU fell by £0.8 billion (5.6%) and exports to non-EU countries fell by £0.1 billion (0.4%).

Figure 2: When the effect of inflation is removed, trade has remained relatively stable over the past year

Imports and exports of goods, excluding precious metals, current prices and chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, EU and non-EU, February 2020 to February 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following Brexit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

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Goods imports

Figure 3 shows that the £0.4 billion (1.5%) increase in imports from the EU in February 2023 was because of a £0.2 billion rise in imports of machinery and transport equipment and a £0.2 billion rise in fuel imports. The rise in imports of machinery and transport equipment was because of increased car imports from Germany, while fuel imports rose because of increased refined oil imports from the Netherlands.

Imports from non-EU countries decreased by £1.1 billion (4.5%) in February 2023. Chemical imports fell by £0.9 billion, driven by falls in organic chemicals and medicinal and pharmaceutical products from the United States. Additionally, imports of fuels fell by £0.8 billion, driven by reduced imports of gas and crude oil from the United States and gas from Norway. These decreases were partially offset by an increase of £0.4 billion in imports of miscellaneous manufactures and a £0.2 billion rise in material manufactures imports.

Figure 3: Imports of goods from non-EU countries decreased in February 2023, driven by falls in imports of chemicals and fuels

EU and non-EU goods imports by commodity, current prices, seasonally adjusted, February 2021 to February 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following Brexit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

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Volatile fuel prices have influenced trends in the value of fuel imports since autumn 2021. The total value of fuel imported from non-EU countries decreased in February 2023 as gas prices continued to fall following a sharp rise in December, as shown in our Trade in Goods: Fuels other than oil time series. When the effect of inflation is removed, fuel imports from non-EU countries decreased in February 2023, as shown in Figure 4.

Goods exports

Figure 5 shows that the decrease of £1.0 billion (6.2%) in exports to the EU in February 2023 was mainly the result of a £0.9 billion fall in exports of fuels, driven by decreased crude oil exports to the Netherlands and France. Exports of machinery and transport equipment also decreased by £0.1 billion in February.

The £0.1 billion (0.7%) fall in exports to non-EU countries was because of a £0.5 billion decrease in chemical exports, which was partially offset by small increases in miscellaneous manufactures, crude materials, and material manufactures. The fall in chemical exports was because of reduced exports of medicinal and pharmaceutical products to South Korea and inorganic chemicals to Canada.

Figure 5: Exports of goods to EU countries decreased in February 2023, because of lower exports of fuels

EU and non-EU goods exports by commodity, current prices, seasonally adjusted, February 2021 to February 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following Brexit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

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Early estimates suggest imports of services increased by around £0.1 billion (0.6%) in February 2023, while exports increased by around £0.3 billion (0.7%), shown in Figure 6. Monthly figures for trade in services for February 2023 are forecast from Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2022 data, using additional data sources. View our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) for more detail on how our trade in services statistics are compiled.

Although price rises have affected trade in services in recent months, in February 2023 there was little difference between trade in services trends in value and inflation-adjusted terms. After removing the effect of inflation, imports of services increased by £0.1 billion (0.6%), and exports of services increased by £0.2 billion (0.7%) in February 2023.

Figure 6: Imports and exports of services slightly increased in February 2023

Imports and exports of services, current prices and chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, February 2020 to February 2023

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The Bank of England's Agents' summary of business conditions - 2023 Q1 reported that, while economic activity was generally subdued, demand was better than expected in consumer services like those in the hospitality sector. Moreover, contacts in business services reported growth, especially those in audit, IT, and insurance. However, a weakness in demand reportedly affected companies in logistics, wholesale, recruitment, and advertising.

Table 2 shows that total imports of goods decreased by £2.8 billion (1.8%) in the three months to February 2023, compared with the previous three months. This was the result of a fall in goods imports from non-EU countries over this period, while imports from the EU rose. Exports of goods over the same period decreased by £3.7 billion (3.8%), with exports to both EU and non-EU countries falling.

Imports of services decreased slightly, by an estimated £0.3 billion (0.4%), in the three months to February 2023 compared with the three months to November 2022, while exports of services fell by £1.7 billion (1.6%).

The total goods and services deficit, excluding precious metals, widened by £2.3 billion to £23.5 billion in the three months to February 2023, as seen in Figure 7. Exports fell by £5.4 billion, whereas imports fell by a lesser £3.1 billion. When removing the effect of inflation, the total trade deficit, excluding precious metals, widened by £0.6 billion to £13.2 billion.

The trade in goods deficit in value terms, excluding precious metals, widened by £0.9 billion to £61.3 billion in the three months to February 2023 and the trade in services surplus narrowed by £1.4 billion to £37.9 billion.

Explore the 2022 trade in goods data using our interactive tools. Our data break down UK trade in goods with 234 countries by 125 commodities.

Use our map to get a better understanding of what goods the UK traded with a country. Select a country by hovering over it (desktop only) or use the drop-down menu.

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Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, see our Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016 article. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are official statistics and no longer experimental.

2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, through the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases, such as UN Comtrade.

3. This interactive map denotes country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out in Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 2.9MB) and do not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

You can also explore the 2022 trade in goods data by commodity, such as car exports to the EU and UK tea or coffee imports.

Select a commodity from the drop-down menu or select the levels with your digit or cursor to explore the data.

Download the data

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Download the data

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Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, see our Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016 article. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are no longer experimental.

2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, via the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases, such as UN Comtrade.

3. These interactive charts denote country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out within Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 2.9MB) and does not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

In accordance with our National Accounts Revisions Policy, the data in this release have been revised from January 2022 to January 2023 for both goods and services.

Chained volume measures (CVMs)

CVM estimates are a "real" measure in that they have had the effect of inflation removed to measure the change in volume between consecutive periods, fixing the prices of goods and services in one period (the base year).

Current price measures (CPs)

These estimates measure the actual price paid for goods or services and are not adjusted for inflation. Unless otherwise stated, all current price data are provided in £ million and are seasonally adjusted.

Inflation

Inflation is the change in the average price level of goods and services over a period of time.

Implied deflators (IDEFs)

An IDEF shows the implied change in average prices for the respective components of the trade balance. For example, the IDEF for imports will show the average price movement for imports.

Precious metals and non-monetary gold

Precious metals include precious metals, silver, platinum, and palladium, and it forms part of the commodity group "unspecified goods". Non-monetary gold comprises the majority of this group and is the technical term for gold bullion not owned by central banks.

Trade balance

The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports or exports minus imports. When the value of exports is greater than the value of imports, the trade balance is in surplus. When the value of imports is greater than the value of exports, the trade balance is in deficit. The balance is sometimes referred to as "net exports".

Our full Glossary of economic terms is available.

The UK leaving the EU and the subsequent transition period, along with the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, supply chain disruption and global recession, have caused higher levels of volatility in trade statistics in recent years. The monthly analysis shows short-term trade movements, but it is important to note that monthly data can be erratic, and therefore movements should be treated with caution.

Data sources

Data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) make up over 90% of trade in goods value and are the main source for this release. HMRC data collection changes following Brexit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

Data from the quarterly International Trade in Services (ITIS) Survey make up over 50% of trade in services data. View our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) for more detail. 

Data from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) are the main source for travel services, historically making up around 8% of total imports. Following suspension of the survey in 2020, the survey has now largely resumed, with a very small number of ports yet to have resumed interviewing. We advise continued caution when using these data until the IPS is fully operational. View our UK Trade QMI for more detail.

Unless otherwise specified, data within this bulletin are in current prices and have not been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation. In line with international standards, our headline trade statistics contain the UK's exports and imports of non-monetary gold. View our National Accounts article: A brief explanation of non-monetary gold in national accounts for more information.

Method

Trade is measured through both exports and imports of goods and services. Data are supplied by over 30 sources, including several administrative sources, with HMRC being the largest for trade in goods.

Office for National Statistics (ONS) UK trade figures are produced on a country of dispatch basis, which records imports as coming from the country dispatching the shipments. However, trade figures can also be produced on a country-of-origin basis, as is used by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ). Users should be aware of the different accounting methods used and the resulting differences across trade figures.

Monthly trade in services data are taken from quarterly trade in services data and split across the months within that quarter through estimation. In months where we have a full quarter's data, we revise previous estimates of monthly values within that quarter.

View more detailed information about the methods used to produce UK trade statistics in our UK Trade methodology.

National Statistics designation status

The UK Statistics Authority suspended the National Statistics designation of UK trade (PDF, 72.9KB) on 14 November 2014. We have now responded to all of the specific requirements of the Office for Statistics Regulation's (OSR) reassessment of UK trade. As part of our engagement with the OSR team, we are sharing our continuous improvement and development plans to support UK trade statistics regaining National Statistics status. We welcome feedback on our new trade statistics, developments, and future plans by email to trade@ons.gov.uk.

Trade asymmetries

Asymmetries can be caused by a range of conceptual and measurement variations between the estimation practices of different countries. Statistical agencies are likely to have different source data, estimation methods, and methodological, geographical, and definitional differences. More information on UK trade asymmetries is published by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). Analysis on trade in services asymmetries is published by the ONS, in our Asymmetries in trade data Articles.

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).