UK trade : February 2022

• Exports of goods to EU countries, excluding precious metals, increased notably in February 2022, following on from the 20.5% decrease in January that was attributed to the operational change implemented by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) in January 2022; we therefore recommend users do not rely on these month-on-month movements when interpreting the latest monthly data for exports to the EU.

• Total exports of goods, excluding precious metals, increased by £2.1 billion (7.8%) in February 2022, driven by a £3.0 billion (25.4%) increase in exports to EU countries while exports to non-EU countries decreased by £0.9 billion (6.4%).

• While exports of goods to EU countries, excluding precious metals, have increased by 25.4% in February 2022 compared with January 2022, exports to the EU have decreased by 0.3% when comparing February 2022 with December 2021.

• Total imports of goods, excluding precious metals, decreased by £1.0 billion (2.2%) in February 2022, because of a £0.7 billion (3.0%) fall in imports from EU countries while imports from non-EU countries fell by £0.3 billion (1.3%).

• The total trade in goods and services deficit, excluding precious metals, widened by £8.6 billion to £21.2 billion in the three months to February 2022.

• The trade in goods deficit, excluding precious metals, widened by £10.2 billion to £54.4 billion in the three months to February 2022, as imports of goods increased by £13.5 billion (10.8%) and exports increased by £3.3 billion (4.1%).

• The trade in services surplus increased by £1.6 billion in the three months to February 2022 to £33.2 billion.

EU imports

In January 2022, HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) implemented a data collection change that affected data on imports from the EU to Great Britain. As a result, our EU to Great Britain import statistics from January 2022 are not directly comparable with previous months. HMRC is continuing to assess any impacts of this change. Current investigations indicate the continued strong level of imports from the EU is predominantly the result of genuine increases in trade rather than being attributed to the data collection change.

EU exports

An operational change implemented by HMRC in January 2022 resulted in a break in the timeseries for UK exports to the EU. Although this change does not affect data for February and future months, caution should be taken when interpreting month-on-month comparisons and movements across periods that include January 2022 data.

The UK leaving the EU and the subsequent transition period, along with the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, global recession and supply chain disruption, have caused higher levels of volatility in trade statistics in the past two years.

While the monthly bulletin provides analysis of short-term trade movements, comparing 2022 with equivalent 2018 data provides comparisons of recent UK trade estimates with our most recent "stable" period. We also compare 2022 levels with 2021, as we would normally. It is important to note monthly data are erratic and therefore small movements should be treated with caution.

Total imports of goods decreased by £1.0 billion (2.2%) in February 2022, because of decreasing imports from both EU and non-EU countries. Total exports of goods increased by £2.1 billion (7.8%) in February 2022, with increases in exports to EU countries being partially offset by a decrease in exports to non-EU countries (Table 1 and Figure 1).

Imports from EU countries were £0.6 billion lower than from non-EU countries in February 2022. Non-EU imports were higher than EU imports for most of 2021, linked to the large increases in the imports of fuels in the last months of the year. Exports to non-EU countries were £1.1 billion lower than exports to EU countries in February 2022, after EU exports recovered from January 2022 levels.

Total imports of goods increased by £13.5 billion (10.8%) in the three months to February 2022, compared with the three months to November 2021. Imports from both EU and non-EU countries increased during this time. Exports of goods over the same period increased by £3.3 billion (4.1%), because of increasing exports to both EU and non-EU countries.

It continues to be difficult to assess the extent to which these trade movements reflect short-term trade disruption or longer-term supply chain adjustments. However, the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) reports that 68% of exporters and 70% of importers faced challenges in late February to early March 2022 with additional paperwork, change in transportation costs and customs duties or levels being the top challenges for traders. This compares with 61% of exporters and 61% of importers reporting trade challenges in February to March 2021.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine began on the February 24 and in response, the UK government have imposed a range of economic sanctions on Russia from late February and early March. It is too early for the effects of these sanctions to be seen in February trade statistics. We will continue to monitor the impact of the conflict and resulting sanctions in future releases, and have released articles focussing on 2021 trade with Russia and Ukraine.

Notes:

1. Caution should be taken when interpreting these data as HM Revenue and Customs changed the collection method for imports from and exports to the EU as of January 2022. Our blog provides more detail.

Figure 1: Total imports of goods decreased in February 2022, while total exports of goods increased

EU and non-EU goods imports and exports, excluding precious metals, February 2019 to February 2022

Notes:

1. Caution should be taken when interpreting these data, particularly month-on-month changes in exports to the EU, as HM Revenue and Customs changed the collection method for imports from and exports to the EU as of January 2022. Our blog provides more detail.

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Total imports of goods fell by £1.0 billion (2.2%) in February 2022, with imports from EU countries decreasing by £0.7 billion (3.0%) and imports from non-EU countries decreasing by £0.3 billion (1.3%).

Imports of chemicals from the EU decreased by £0.3 billion in February 2022 and imports of machinery and transport equipment fell by £0.2 billion. The fall in machinery and transport equipment was driven by reduced imports of electrical machinery from the Netherlands.

Imports of machinery and transport equipment from non-EU countries fell by £0.1 billion in February 2022, driven by reduced imports of ships from China and partially offset by increasing imports of road vehicles. Imports of both material manufactures and chemicals from non-EU countries also decreased by £0.1 billion in February 2022.

Figure 2: Imports of goods decreased in February 2022, driven by decreasing imports of chemicals and machinery and transport equipment

EU and non-EU goods imports by commodity, February 2020 to February 2022

Notes:

1. Caution should be taken when interpreting these data as HM Revenue and Customs changed the collection method for imports from and exports to the EU as of January 2022. Our blog provides more detail.

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Total exports of goods rose by £2.1 billion (7.8%) in February 2022, driven by a £3.0 billion (25.4%) increase in exports to EU countries while exports to non-EU countries decreased by £0.9 billion (6.4%).

Caution should be taken when interpreting month-on-month changes in exports to the EU because of the operational change implemented by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) in January 2022. Approximately two-thirds of this decrease in exports to EU countries in January 2022 was attributed to this change.

Although February data are not affected by this change, the month-on-month comparisons are affected because of this lower value of January 2022 data. We therefore recommend users do not rely on these month-on-month movements when interpreting the latest monthly data for exports to the EU. While exports to EU countries have increased by 25.4% in February 2022 when compared to January 2022, exports to the EU have decreased by 0.3% when comparing February 2022 with December 2021.

Increases in exports to the EU were observed across a range of commodities in February 2022 after the operational change implemented by HMRC affected data in January (Figure 3).

Exports of fuels to EU countries fell by £0.5 billion in February 2022, mainly because of a fall in exports of crude oil to the Netherlands. Fuel prices including crude oil and wholesale gas prices were relatively stable in February, albeit remaining at generally high levels.

The decrease in exports to non-EU countries was driven almost entirely by a £1.0 billion decrease in exports of machinery and transport equipment driven by a reduction in exports of ships to Norway and Switzerland.

Figure 3: Exports of goods to non-EU countries decreased in February 2022, driven by decreasing exports of machinery and transport equipment

EU and non-EU goods exports by commodity, February 2020 to February 2022

Notes:

1. Caution should be taken when interpreting these data, particularly month-on-month changes in exports to the EU, as HM Revenue and Customs changed the collection method for imports from and exports to the EU as of January 2022. Our blog provides more detail.

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The total trade deficit for goods and services, excluding precious metals, widened by £8.6 billion to £21.2 billion in the three months to February 2022. Total imports increased by £14.2 billion in the latest three month period to £186.6 billion while total exports increased by £5.7 billion to £165.3 billion (Figure 4).

The trade in goods deficit, excluding precious metals, widened by £10.2 billion to £54.4 billion in the three months to February 2022, driven by a large increase in imports, despite an increase in exports of £3.3 billion.

Early estimates suggest the trade in services surplus increased by £1.6 billion in the three months to February 2022 to £33.2 billion driven by a £2.3 billion increase in exports.

Imports of goods in February 2022 were £12.3 billion (35.7%) higher than February 2021 levels, while exports increased by £4.0 billion (16.1%) over the same period (Table 2). As 2021 data were strongly affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and end of the EU exit transition period, we have also compared them against 2018 trade data. Compared with February 2018, imports increased by £9.2 billion (24.4%) while exports rose by £0.8 billion (2.9%).

Total imports and exports of goods increased in the three months to February 2022 compared with the three months to February 2021. However, exports decreased by £1.0 billion (1.2%) when compared with the same period in 2018, while imports increased by £20.1 billion (17.0%).

Notes:

1. Caution should be taken when interpreting these data as HM Revenue and Customs changed the collection method for imports from and exports to the EU as of January 2022. Our blog provides more detail.

Explore the 2021 trade in goods data using our interactive tools. Our data breaks down UK trade in goods with 234 countries by 125 commodities.

Use our map to get a better understanding of what goods the UK traded with a country. Select a country by hovering over it or using the drop-down menu.

Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, please see Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are official statistics and no longer experimental.

2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, through the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases such as UN Comtrade.

3. This interactive map denotes country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out within Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 1.1MB) and does not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

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You can also explore the 2021 trade in goods data by commodity, such as car exports to the EU and UK tea or coffee imports.

Select a commodity from the drop-down menu or click through the levels to explore the data.

Download the data

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Download the data

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Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, please see Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are no longer experimental.

2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, via the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases such as UN Comtrade.

3. These interactive charts denote country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out within Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 1.1MB) and does not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

In accordance with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, the data in this release have been revised from January 2020 to February 2022 for both goods and services. Data in this release are consistent with estimates published in the quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) and balance of payments published on 31 March 2022.

HM Revenue and Customs unscheduled correction

Following the publication of UK trade: April 2021, an error was identified in the HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) Overseas trade data used to compile the Office for National Statistics' (ONS) UK Trade statistics.

Revisions for the period January 2020 to February 2021 were published in our UK trade: May 2021 bulletin on 9 July 2021, taking place outside of the usual National Accounts revisions period in order to ensure the ONS Trade figures reflected the most up-to-date position. Revisions for pre-2020 will be incorporated in the annual Blue Book publication in October 2022.

We have published an article providing users with an indicative estimate of the likely scale and impact of these corrections on the ONS trade statistics before their publication in the August 2022 UK trade statistics, due to be published in October 2022.

Trade in services adjustments

We are working towards the implementation of a new adjustment approach within our first estimate of quarterly trade in services to address known downward bias. This new methodology will be implemented in the GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: January to March 2022 release on 12 May. We plan to publish more detailed information in line with the above publication.

Chained volume measures (CVMs)

CVM estimates are a "real" measure in that it has had the effect of inflation removed to measure the change in volume between consecutive periods, fixing the prices of goods and services in one period (the base year).

Current price measures (CPs)

These estimates measure the actual price paid for goods or services and are not adjusted for inflation. Unless otherwise stated, all current price data are provided in £ million and are seasonally adjusted.

Inflation

Inflation is the change in the average price level of goods and services over a period of time.

Implied deflators (IDEFs)

An IDEF shows the implied change in average prices for the respective components of the trade balance, for example, the IDEF for imports will show the average price movement for imports.

Precious metals and non-monetary gold

Precious metals include precious metals, silver, platinum and palladium, and it forms part of the commodity group "unspecified goods". Non-monetary gold comprises the majority of this group and is the technical term for gold bullion not owned by central banks.

Trade balance

The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports or exports minus imports. When the value of exports is greater than the value of imports, the trade balance is in surplus. When the value of imports is greater than the value of exports, the trade balance is in deficit. The balance is sometimes referred to as "net exports".

A full Glossary of economic terms is available.

Making our published spreadsheets accessible

Over the coming months, all Office for National Statistics (ONS) datasets will be reviewed to ensure they meet the accessibility standards outlined in the Government Statistical Service (GSS) guidance on releasing statistics in spreadsheets. This is to ensure that all GSS outputs meet Web Content Accessibility Guidelines, a legal requirement set out in The Public Sector Bodies (Websites and Mobile Applications) Accessibility Regulations 2018.

We welcome any feedback on these changes. Share your feedback by emailing the statistical contact at the top of the page.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) data impact

Because of the challenges of data collection during the coronavirus pandemic, we have experienced challenges around the level of survey and data returns for this trade release.

Data sources

Data from the quarterly International Trade in Services (ITIS) Survey make up over 50% of trade in services data. View the UK trade QMI for more detail.

Data from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) are the main source for travel services, historically making up around 8% of total imports. Following suspension of the survey in 2020 the IPS has now partially resumed. We continue to use the statistical model to produce our regular travel estimates and, for our Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2021 dataset onwards, will use the IPS deliveries to inform these modelled estimates. We will review this decision after deliveries of IPS data fully resume. View the UK trade QMI for more detail.

Data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) make up over 90% of trade in goods value and are the main source. We have worked closely with HMRC to prepare for the change in collection of customs data, which occurred at the end of the EU exit transition period. View further information in Impact of EU exit on the collection and compilation of UK trade statistics.

In line with international standards, our headline trade statistics contain the UK's exports and imports of non-monetary gold. View more information about the ONS' recording of non-monetary gold.

Unless otherwise specified, data within this bulletin are in current prices. This means they have not been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation.

Method

Trade is measured through both exports and imports of goods and services. Data are supplied by over 30 sources including several administrative sources, with HMRC being the largest for trade in goods.

View more detailed information about the methods used to produce UK trade statistics on the UK trade methodology web pages.

National Statistics designation status

The UK Statistics Authority suspended the National Statistics designation of UK trade (PDF, 72.9KB) on 14 November 2014. We have now responded to all of the specific requirements of the reassessment of UK trade and, as part of our engagement with the Office for Statistics Regulation team, we are sharing our continuous improvement and development plans to support UK trade statistics regaining National Statistics status. We welcome feedback on our new trade statistics, developments and future plans by email to trade@ons.gov.uk.

Trade asymmetries

Asymmetries can be caused by a range of conceptual and measurement variations between the estimation practices of different countries. Statistical agencies are likely to have different source data, estimation methods, and methodological, geographical and definitional differences. More information on trade in goods asymmetries is published by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC), while analysis on trade in services asymmetries is published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the UK trade QMI.