UK Trade: April 2015

• UK Trade shows the extent of import and export activity and is a main contributor to the overall economic growth of the UK. All data are shown on a seasonally adjusted balance of payments basis at current prices

• The UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services was estimated to have been £1.2 billion in April 2015, compared with £3.1 billion in March 2015. This reflects a deficit of £8.6 billion on goods, partially offset by an estimated surplus of £7.4 billion on services

• In April 2015, the trade in goods deficit narrowed by £2.1 billion. This reflects both an increase in exports and a decrease in imports. Exports of goods increased by £0.7 billion, of which £0.6 billion was attributed to countries outside of the EU. Imports of goods fell by £1.5 billion, reflecting falls in the imports of miscellaneous manufactures

• In the 3-months to April 2015, the UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services was estimated to have been £7.2 billion; widening by £1.6 billion from the 3-months to January 2015

• In the 3-months to April 2015, the trade in goods deficit widened by £1.0 billion to £30.0 billion. The widening reflects a £1.9 billion fall in exports and a £0.8 billion fall in imports. At the commodity level, the fall in exports in the 3-months to April 2015 reflects a £1.1 billion decrease in the export of fuels; specifically oil, which fell by £1.2 billion and a £0.6 billion decrease in the export of material manufactures. Over the same period, imports of chemicals fell by £0.6 billion and fuels by £0.3 billion

The deficit of trade in goods and services for April 2015 narrowed to £1.2 billion, from £3.1 billion in the previous month. The trade position reflects exports minus imports. Between March 2015 and April 2015, exports increased by £0.5 billion to £42.6 billion and imports decreased by £1.4 billion to £43.8 billion.

The deficit on trade in goods was £8.6 billion in April 2015. The £2.1 billion narrowing from March 2015 was the largest monthly narrowing since June 2013 when the deficit narrowed by £2.6 billion. Between March 2015 and April 2015, exports rose by £0.7 billion, whilst imports decreased by £1.5 billion over the same period.

In detail, exports of goods rose by £0.7 billion to £24.5 billion in April 2015. The increase mainly reflects a £0.4 billion rise in exports of chemicals; in particular, a rise in exports of organic compounds, which anecdotal evidence suggests were exported to the USA. Exports of fuels also increased in April 2015 (up £0.2 billion from March). Almost two-thirds of this increase was due to fuels other than oil.

Imports of goods fell by £1.5 billion in April 2015. £0.8 billion of this decrease was attributed to miscellaneous manufactures. The overall decrease within miscellaneous manufactures was an accumulation of many low level commodities recording lower imports in April. The most significant of which being works of art and furniture. Imports of fuels fell by £0.4 billion between March 2015 and April 2015; specifically oil, which fell £0.2 billion.

In April 2015, exports to countries outside the EU rose by £0.6 billion. Chemical exports rose by £0.3 billion (primarily due to exports to the USA) and exports of machinery and transport equipment rose by £0.2 billion. Imports from EU countries fell by £0.8 billion between March 2015 and April 2015 as imports of chemicals, materials and miscellaneous manufactures each decreased by £0.2 billion. Outside the EU, imports fell by £0.7 billion, mainly reflecting falls in miscellaneous manufactures (down £0.5 billion) and fuels (down £0.3 billion). The fall in fuel imports was primarily due to oil as imports fell by £0.2 billion in April 2015.

Trade statistics for any 1 month can be erratic. For that reason, it is recommended to compare the latest 3 months against the preceding 3 months and the same 3 months of the preceding year.

In the 3 months ending April 2015, the total trade deficit widened by £1.6 billion to £7.2 billion as exports fell more sharply than imports.

In the 3 months to April 2015, the trade in goods deficit widened by £1.0 billion to £30.0 billion. The widening reflects a £1.9 billion fall in exports and a £0.8 billion fall in imports. At the commodity level, the fall in exports reflects a £1.1 billion decrease in exports of fuels; specifically oil, which fell by £1.2 billion. Exports of materials and machinery and transport equipment each fell substantially in the same period (down £0.6 billion and £0.5 billion respectively). The chemical industry showed the most improvement in the 3 months to April 2015 as exports rose by £0.8 billion and imports fell by £0.6 billion.

By area, the UK’s deficit with the EU widened by £0.2 billion to £21.3 billion in the three months to April 2015, while the UK’s deficit with non-EU countries widened by £0.8 billion over the same period. The widening of the non-EU deficit mainly reflects falls in exports of materials and machinery and transport equipment (each falling by £0.4 billion), whilst import levels for those commodities rose over the same period. The widening was partially offset by trade in chemicals, as exports to countries outside the EU rose by £1.1 billion in the three months to April 2015.

Geographically, in the three months to April 2015 the UK’s surplus with the USA increased by £1.3 billion to £3.8 billion due mainly to an increase in exports of chemicals and machinery. The UK’s deficit with Canada narrowed by £0.9 billion as imports fell by £0.8 billion in the three months ending April 2015. In the same period, the UK’s deficit with the Switzerland widened by £2.1 billion, as exports fell by £1.7 billion. This fall in exports is mainly due to the high level of export activity between the UK and Switzerland at the end of 2014.

This bulletin also reports on trade in services. However, the information on trade in services is mainly obtained from quarterly surveys, in some cases underpinned by larger annual surveys. That means that the data for the latest months are inevitably uncertain.

In quarter 1 January to March 2015, the surplus on trade in services was £23.2 billion. This shows very little change from the previous quarter. Exports of services for quarter 1 January to March 2015 were at a record high of £55.0 billion.

The value of trade in goods grew steadily from the beginning of 2007 to mid-2008. The onset of the global economic downturn in mid-2008 affected the economic performance of the UK’s major trading partners and the value of both UK exports and imports fell sharply until quarter 2 April to June 2009. Growth in the value of trade in goods resumed from mid-2009 with improving global economic conditions. However, the value of both UK exports and imports has remained largely flat since mid-2011 with the continuing difficulties in many economies.

The total trade balance for 2014 was revised downwards to £35.4 billion; £1.6 billion lower than initial estimates published in the February 2015 UK Trade publication. Trade in goods accounts for 100% of the revision to 2014. The revision to imports (up by £0.9 billion) was caused primarily by new data for manufactured goods and the revision to exports (down by £0.7 billion) was caused primarily by fuels. Trade in services was unrevised in 2014.

The trade deficit in quarter 1 January to March 2015 was revised upwards by £0.2 billion. Exports and imports were both revised upwards, although exports more so as new data for services exports became available. Imports of goods was also revised upwards, but this revision was almost entirely offset by a downwards revision to services imports.

In April 2015, the UK’s deficit on trade in goods was £8.6 billion, narrowing by £2.1 billion from March 2015.

Total exports increased by £0.7 billion (2.8%) to £24.5 billion and total imports decreased by £1.5 billion (4.3%) to £33.0 billion.

At the commodity level, the data are shown in Table 2.

In the 3-months to April 2015, the deficit on trade in goods was £30.0 billion, widening by £1.0 billion from the 3-months to January 2015.

Total exports decreased by £1.9 billion (2.5%) to £71.7 billion and total imports decreased by £0.8 billion (0.8%) to £101.7 billion.

At the commodity level, the data are shown in Table 3.

Monthly analysis

In April 2015, the deficit on trade in goods with EU countries narrowed by £0.8 billion to £6.5 billion. The deficit on trade in goods with non-EU countries narrowed by £1.3 billion to £2.1 billion (Figure 4).

Between March 2015 and April 2015, exports to the EU increased by £0.1 billion (0.5%) to £11.1 billion. This can be attributed to an increase in exports to Germany of £0.1 billion.

Between March 2015 and April 2015, imports from the EU decreased by £0.8 billion (4.1%) to £17.5 billion. Imports from the Netherlands decreased by £0.2 billion and imports from France, Germany and Italy all decreased by £0.1 billion.

At the commodity level, the data are shown in Table 4.

Between March 2015 and April 2015, exports to non-EU countries increased by £0.6 billion (4.7%) to £13.4 billion. Exports to China, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan and the USA all increased by £0.1 billion.

Between March 2015 and April 2015, imports from non-EU countries decreased by £0.7 billion (4.5%) to £15.5 billion. Imports from China decreased by £0.9 billion and from Norway by £0.3 billion. These decreases were partially offset by an increase in imports from South Korea of £0.5 billion and from Switzerland of £0.3 billion.

At the commodity level, the data are shown in Table 5.

3-monthly analysis

In the 3-months to April 2015, the deficit on trade in goods with EU countries widened by £0.2 billion to £21.3 billion.

Between the 3-months to January 2015 and the 3-months to April 2015, exports to the EU decreased by £2.1 billion (5.9%) to £33.2 billion. Exports to the Netherlands decreased by £0.9 billion and to Germany by £0.3 billion. Exports also decreased to Belgium and Luxembourg (combined), to the Irish Republic and to Sweden, each by £0.2 billion.

Between the 3-months to January 2015 and the 3-months to April 2015, imports from the EU decreased by £1.9 billion (3.4%) to £54.5 billion. Imports from Germany and Italy both decreased by £0.4 billion and from the Irish Republic and Denmark by £0.3 billion. There were further decreases in imports from Belgium and Luxembourg (combined), and the Netherlands, all of £0.2 billion.

At the commodity level, the data are shown in Table 6.

In the 3-months to April 2015, the deficit on trade in goods with non-EU countries widened by £0.8 billion to £8.7 billion.

Between the 3-months to January 2015 and the 3-months to April 2015, exports to non-EU countries increased by £0.2 billion (0.6%) to £38.4 billion. Exports to the USA increased by £1.3 billion and to Norway, Singapore and South Korea, each by £0.2 billion. These increases were partially offset by a decrease in exports to Switzerland of £1.7 billion.

Between the 3-months to January 2015 and the 3-months to April 2015, imports from non-EU countries increased by £1.1 billion (2.3%) to £47.1 billion. Imports from South Korea increased by £0.6 billion and from China by £0.5 billion. These increases were partially offset by a decrease in imports from Canada of £0.8 billion.

At the commodity level, the data are shown in Table 7.

The UK’s top 5 export trading partners were unchanged in April 2015 when compared with March 2015. A small increase in exports to the Netherlands (£16.0 million) and a small decrease in exports to the Irish Republic (£40.0 million) meant they have switched places as the UK’s 4th and 5th top trading partners.

Outside of the top 10, there were record high exports to Mexico and Taiwan respectively. Although comparatively small value figures, the £24.0 million increase in exports to Mexico represents a 21.8% increase when comparing April 2015 to March 2015. An increase of £68.0 million in exports to Taiwan represents a 68.7% increase over the same period.

The UK’s top 5 import trading partners were also unchanged when compared with March 2015. Germany remains the UK’s top import partner, with imports of £5.1 billion. A decrease in imports from China of £0.9 billion saw it move down to 3rd in the table when compared with March 2015, with the USA now the UK’s 2nd largest import partner.

Outside of the top 10, imports from South Korea were at a record high of £0.9 billion. Anecdotal evidence suggests this increase of £0.5 billion was due to a rise in the import of ships and boats.

In the 3-months to April 2015, there were record highs in exports to the USA and Taiwan. Exports to the USA increased by £1.3 billion (12.1%) to £11.9 billion. Anecdotal evidence attributes this increase to a rise in the export of chemicals and machinery and transport equipment. Exports to Taiwan increased by £0.1 billion (46.7%) to £0.4 billion.

In the 3-months to April 2015, imports from both South Korea and Morocco were at a record high. Imports from South Korea reached £1.5 billion, a £0.6 billion (72.7%) increase when compared to the 3-months to January 2015. Imports from Morocco increased by £21.0 million (14.5%) to £0.2 billion. Over the same period, a decrease of £0.1 billion (26.2%) took imports from Singapore, to a record low of £0.4 billion.

Between March 2015 and April 2015, the total volume of exports increased by 6.7% and the total volume of imports decreased by 6.4%.

At the commodity level, the data are shown in Table 10.

In the 3-months to April 2015, the volume of exports increased by 2.0% and the volume of imports increased by 1.4% when compared with the 3-months to January 2015.

At the commodity level, the data are shown in Table 11.

In April 2015, compared with March 2015, export prices increased by 0.3% and import prices decreased by 0.4%. Excluding the oil price effect, export prices increased by 0.1% and import prices decreased by 0.7%.

In the 3-months to April 2015, when compared with the 3-months to January 2015, export prices decreased by 2.0% and import prices decreased by 1.7%. Excluding the oil price effect, export prices and import prices each decreased by 1.3%.

In April 2015, the balance on trade in oil was in deficit by £1.0 billion compared with a deficit of £1.3 billion in March 2015. Oil exports increased by £0.1 billion to £1.7 billion and oil imports decreased by £0.2 billion to £2.7 billion.

In the 3-months to April 2015, the balance on trade in oil was in deficit by £3.1 billion, widening by £1.0 billion when compared with the 3-months to January 2015. Oil exports decreased by £1.2 billion to £5.0 billion and oil imports decreased by £0.3 billion to £8.1 billion.

In April 2015, the UK’s estimated surplus on trade in services was £7.4 billion.

Exports in April 2015 were estimated to have been £18.1 billion and imports £10.7 billion.

In the 3-months to April 2015, the estimated surplus on trade in services was £22.8 billion.

In the 3-months to April 2015, exports were estimated to have been £54.7 billion and imports £31.9 billion.

In quarter 1 January to March 2015, the surplus on trade in services was £23.2 billion. This shows very little change from the previous quarter. Exports of services for quarter 1 January to March 2015 were at a record high of £55.0 billion.

The UK Trade record information for April 2015 (42.5 Kb Excel sheet) can be accessed on our website.