Index of Private Housing Rental Prices, Great Britain: October 2016

Private rental prices paid by tenants in Great Britain rose by 2.3% in the 12 months to October 2016; this is unchanged compared with the year to September 2016.

Private rental prices grew by 2.5% in England, decreased in Scotland (negative 0.2%) and grew by 0.4% in Wales in the 12 months to October 2016.

Rental prices increased in all the English regions over the year to October 2016, with rental prices increasing the most in the South East (3.4%).

From January 2017 we are improving the way we publish economic statistics, with related data grouped together under new "theme" days. This will increase the coherence of our data releases and involve minor changes to the timing of certain publications. The impact of this on IPHRP is to bring the release forward to the second or third Tuesday of each month. For more information see Changes to publication schedule for economic statistics.

The Index of Private Housing Rental Prices (IPHRP) measures the change in price of renting residential property from private landlords. The index is published as a series of price indices covering Great Britain, its constituent countries and the English regions.

IPHRP measures the change in price tenants face when renting residential property from private landlords, thereby allowing a comparison between the prices tenants are charged in the current month as opposed to the same month in the previous year. The index does not measure the change in newly advertised rental prices only, but reflects price changes for all private rental properties.

IPHRP is released as an Experimental Statistic. This is a new official statistic undergoing evaluation and therefore it is recommended that caution is exercised when drawing conclusions from the published data, as the index is likely to be further developed. Once the methodology is tested and assessed, and the publication meets user needs, the IPHRP will be assessed against the Code of Practice for Official Statistics to achieve National Statistic status. A description of the methodology and the sources used is included in the article Index of Private Housing Rental Prices, Historical Series. Further details regarding improvements to the IPHRP price collection methodology can be found in the January 2015 article.

The IPHRP is constructed using administrative data. That is, the index makes use of data that are already collected for other purposes in order to estimate rental prices. The sources of private rental prices are Valuation Office Agency (VOA), Scottish government (SG) and Welsh government (WG). All 3 organisations deploy rental officers to collect the price paid for privately rented properties. The sources of expenditure weights are Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG), Scottish government, Welsh government and VOA.

DCLG produces estimates of the private rental dwelling stock for England and its regions. Scottish government and Welsh government produce estimates of private rental dwelling stock for Scotland and Wales.

Great Britain rental prices

The Great Britain private rental price series starts in January 2011. This is the date for which all the sources for constituting countries are available on a consistent basis. This index has seen small and gradual increases since January 2011 (Figure 1).

Between October 2015 and October 2016, Great Britain private rental prices grew by 2.3%. For example, a property that was rented for £500 a month in October 2015, which saw its rent increase by the Great Britain average rate, would be rented for £511.50 in October 2016. Rental prices for Great Britain excluding London grew by 2.2% in the same period (Figure 2).

All the countries that constitute Great Britain have experienced rises in their private rental prices since 2011 (Figure 3). Since January 2011, England rental prices have increased more than those of Wales and Scotland.

The annual rate of change in the IPHRP for Wales (0.4%) continues to be well below that of England and the Great Britain average (Figure 4) but has recovered from a low of negative 0.1% in the year to June 2016. Rental growth in Scotland fell by 0.2% in the 12 months to October 2016 from a high of 2.1% in the year to June 2015.

Between October 2015 and October 2016, rental prices grew by 2.5% in England, fell in Scotland (negative 0.2%) and grew by 0.4% in Wales (Figure 5).

The IPHRP series for England starts in 2005. Private rental prices in England show 3 distinct periods: rental price increases from January 2005 until February 2009, rental price decreases from July 2009 to February 2010 and increasing rental prices from June 2010 onwards (Figure 6). When London is excluded, England shows a similar pattern but with slower rental price increases from around the end of 2010.

Figure 7 shows the historical 12 month percentage growth rate in the rental prices of each of the English regions.

Figure 7: IPHRP percentage change over 12 months by English region, January 2006 to October 2016

12-month percentage change

Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

1. Not seasonally adjusted.
2. The dotted grey line shows the average England 12 month percentage change.

Download this image Figure 7: IPHRP percentage change over 12 months by English region, January 2006 to October 2016

.PNG (37.0 kB) .xls (58.4 kB)

Since the beginning of 2012, English rental prices have shown annual increases ranging between 1.4% and 3.0% year-on-year, with October 2016 rental prices being 2.5% higher than October 2015 rental prices (Figure 8). Excluding London, England showed an increase of 2.5% for the same period.

In the 12 months to October 2016, private rental prices increased in all the English regions (Figure 9). The largest annual rental price increases were in the South East (3.4%), down from 3.5% in September 2016, followed by the East of England (3.2%) up from 3.0% in September 2016 and London (2.6%), down from 2.7% in September 2016. Annual rental growth in the South East and East of England has surpassed that of London since May and June 2016 respectively.

The lowest annual rental price increases were in the North East (1.1%), up from 1.0% in September 2016, the North West (1.3%) unchanged from September 2016 and Yorkshire and The Humber (1.5%), unchanged from September 2016.

The rental market in Great Britain continued to show signs of strength in the year to October 2016, as prices grew by 2.3%. This is unchanged from the previous month and 1.4 percentage points above the inflation rate in the year to October 2016.

Rental price inflation was strongest in the South East (3.4%) and the East of England (3.2%). Rental price growth was weakest in the North East (1.1%) and the North West (1.3%).

Looking at data from the UK House Price Index over a longer period shows residential house price growth in Great Britain has typically been stronger than rental price growth for a number of years. There was an average 12-month rate of house price inflation between January 2013 and September 2016 of 6.0%, compared with 2.1% for rental prices between January 2013 and October 2016.

The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) November 2016 Residential Market Survey reported a modest increase in demand continuing the trend of robust rental demand. The Association of Residential Letting Agents (ARLA) reported similar increases in demand and according to the RICS indicator of 3 month rent expectations, there will be consistent rental price inflation in the future.

On the rental market supply side, ARLA report an increase in supply to its highest level since April 2015. ARLA also reported that there appears to be minimal impact on the rental market from the UK referendum decision so far. However, RICS reported that demand continues to outstrip new supply in all areas apart from London. This could partially explain the moderation of rental prices in London, as the annual rate of growth in October 2016 was the joint lowest since December 2014.

From January 2017 we are improving the way we publish economic statistics, with related data grouped together under new "theme" days. This will increase the coherence of our data releases and involve minor changes to the timing of certain publications. For more information see Changes to publication schedule for economic statistics. The impact of this on IPHRP is to bring the release forward to the second or third Tuesday of each month.

IPHRP is classified as an Experimental Statistic to allow for evaluation of the output against user needs. As part of the ongoing development, we are considering how to improve IPHRP ahead of potential assessment as a National Statistic.

In addition to government sources, a number of private companies such as Countrywide, Homelet and LSL Property Services produce statistics on the private rental market. These are predominantly flow measures of private rents, whereas IPHRP is a stock measure. A comparison of these against IPHRP can be found within Tables 3 and 4 of the IPHRP dataset.

For further details, please contact hpi@ons.gov.uk

We welcome your views on the data presented in this statistical bulletin. Please contact the Housing Market Indices team using the email address below to discuss any aspect of the data, including your views on how we can improve the data.

For further details, please contact hpi@ons.gov.uk

The IPHRP dataset provides full historical series for the tables accompanying the IPHRP statistical bulletin. This month, the tables have been updated with the latest monthly estimates for October 2016.

The IPHRP weights summary provides aggregated weights for indicative purposes only. The IPHRP weights are updated annually in February of each year.

Details of the methodology used to calculate the IPHRP can be found in the July 2013 IPHRP article but this article requires some updating. This article can also be supplemented by the January 2015 article which presents some recent methodological changes for IPHRP.

The IPHRP Quality and Methodology Information document contains important information on:

• the strengths and limitations of the data
• the quality of the output: including the accuracy of the data and how it compares with related data
• uses and users
• how the output was created