UK House Price Index: December 2019

• UK average house prices increased by 2.2% over the year to December 2019, up from 1.7% in November 2019.

• Average house prices increased over the year in England to £252,000 (2.2%), Wales to £166,000 (2.2%), Scotland to £152,000 (2.2%) and Northern Ireland to £140,000 (2.5%).

• For the first time since February 2018, all regions have seen a positive annual growth rate.

• The lowest annual growth rate was in the South East of England (1.2%), followed by the West Midlands (1.4%).

UK annual house price growth rate continues to rise

The latest house price data published on GOV.UK by HM Land Registry for December 2019 show that average house prices in the UK increased by 2.2% in the year to December 2019, up from 1.7% in the year to November 2019 (Figure 1). Over the past three years, there has been a general slowdown in UK house price growth (driven mainly by a slowdown in the south and east of England), but there has been a pickup in annual growth since July 2019.

The average UK house price was £235,000 in December 2019; this is £5,000 higher than in December 2018 (Figure 2). On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in the UK increased by 0.3% between November 2019 and December 2019, 0.5 percentage points higher than the same period a year ago. On a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in the UK increased by 0.4% between November 2019 and December 2019.

House price growth in Wales increased by 2.2% over the year to December 2019, down from 5.5% in November 2019, with the average house price in Wales at £166,000.

The average house price in Scotland increased by 2.2% over the year to December 2019, down from 2.9% in the year to November 2019, with the average house price in Scotland now at £152,000.

The average house price in England increased by 2.2% over the year to December 2019, up from 1.3% in the year to November 2019, with the average house price in England now at £252,000.

The average house price in Northern Ireland increased by 2.5% over the year to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019. Northern Ireland remains the cheapest UK country to purchase a property in, with the average house price at £140,000 (Figure 3).

Yorkshire and the Humber was the English region with the highest annual house price growth, with prices increasing by 3.9% in the year to December 2019 (Figure 4). This was followed by the East Midlands, increasing by 2.8%.

The lowest annual growth was in the South East of England, where prices increased by 1.2% over the year to December 2019. This was followed by the West Midlands, where prices increased by 1.4% over the year.

London house prices increased by 2.3% over the year to December 2019, up from 0.4% in November 2019. An analysis of the reasons behind this can be found in the Prices economic commentary.

London house prices remain the most expensive at an average of £484,000. The North East continued to have the lowest average house price, at £131,000, and is the only English region yet to surpass its pre-economic downturn peak of July 2007 (Figure 5).

House Price Index (HPI)

The House Price Index (HPI) measures the price changes of residential housing as a percentage change from a specific time period (12 months prior or a base period, where HPI = 100).

House price inflation

House price inflation in the UK is the rate at which the prices of residential properties purchased in the UK rise and fall.

Non-seasonally adjusted

A non-seasonally adjusted series is one that includes seasonal or calendar effects.

Seasonally adjusted

A seasonally adjusted series is one that has been subject to a widely used technique for removing seasonal or calendar effects from time series data.

The UK House Price Index (HPI) is a joint production by HM Land Registry, Registers of Scotland, Land and Property Services Northern Ireland, and the Office for National Statistics (ONS). HM Land Registry publishes the main publication of the UK HPI on the GOV.UK website today (9:30am, 19 February 2020). It includes full details, including commentary, historical data tables and analytical tools.

After EU withdrawal

As the UK leaves the EU, it is important that our statistics continue to be of high quality and are internationally comparable. During the transition period, those UK statistics that align with EU practice and rules will continue to do so in the same way as before 31 January 2020.

After the transition period, we will continue to produce our inflation statistics in line with the UK Statistics Authority’s Code of Practice for Statistics and in accordance with internationally agreed statistical guidance and standards.

Data sources

The main sources of data used in the UK are HM Land Registry for England and Wales, Registers of Scotland, and HM Revenue and Customs’ (HMRC’s) Stamp Duty Land Tax data for the Northern Ireland HPI.

Methods

The standard average house price is calculated by taking the geometric mean price in January 2015 and then recalculating it in accordance with the index change back in time and forward to the present day.

The UK HPI applies a hedonic regression model that utilises the various sources of data on property price and attributes to produce up-to-date estimates of the change in house prices in each period.

Quality

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the guidance page of the main release published by HM Land Registry on GOV.UK.

Extent of data coverage

The UK House Price Index (UK HPI) can provide a wide coverage of both cash and mortgage transactions and a large data source. Data are available at a local authority level as well as by property type, buyer status, funding statistics and property status.

Time lags

As sales only appear in the UK HPI once the purchases have been registered (based on completed sales rather than advertised or approved prices), there can be a delay before transactions feed into the index. Estimates for the most recent months are provisional and likely to be updated as more data are incorporated into the index.

While changes to estimates are small at the headline level, these can be larger changes at lower geographies owing to fewer transactions being used. Caution is therefore advised when interpreting price changes in the most recent periods. Further information is provided in our revisions policy.