UK House Price Index: July 2015

Monthly house price inflation in the UK, calculated using data from HM Land Registry, Registers of Scotland and Land and Property Services Northern Ireland.

Nid hwn yw'r datganiad diweddaraf. Gweld y datganiad diweddaraf

Cyswllt:
Email Christopher Jenkins

Dyddiad y datganiad:
15 September 2015

Cyhoeddiad nesaf:
13 October 2015

1. Main findings

  • UK house prices increased by 5.2% in the year to July 2015, down from 5.7% in the year to June 2015

  • House price annual inflation was 5.6% in England, 0.3% in Wales, 7.4% in Northern Ireland and -1.3% in Scotland

  • Annual house price increases in England were driven by an annual increase in the East (8.3%) and the South East (6.7%)

  • Excluding London and the South East, UK house prices increased by 4.4% in the 12 months to July 2015

  • On a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices increased by 0.8% between June and July 2015

  • In July 2015, prices paid by first-time buyers were 4.4% higher on average than in July 2014

  • For owner-occupiers (existing owners), prices increased by 5.5% for the same period

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2. About this statistical bulletin

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) House Price Index (HPI), previously published by the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG), is a monthly release that publishes figures for mix-adjusted average house prices and house price indices for the UK, its component countries and regions.

The index is calculated using mortgage financed transactions that are collected via the regulated mortgage survey by the Council of Mortgage Lenders. These cover the majority of mortgage lenders in the UK. The HPI complements other measures of inflation published by us such as the consumer price indices, the producer price indices and the services producer price indices.

This statistical bulletin provides comprehensive information on the change in house prices on a monthly and annual basis. It also includes analysis by country, region, type of buyer (first-time buyers and former owner-occupiers) and type of dwelling (new dwelling or pre-owned dwelling). Historical series for all accompanying tables that transferred from DCLG are also available in the data section of this release.

The figures published in this release are not seasonally adjusted unless otherwise stated.

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3. House price index UK summary

UK average house prices increased by 5.2% over the year to July 2015, down from an increase of 5.7% in the year to June 2015 (Figure 1). The average UK mix-adjusted house price in July 2015 was £282,000.

In July 2015, the UK mix-adjusted house price index increased by 2.0% from the record level witnessed in June 2015 to reach 216.9 (Figure 2). The UK index is 16.9% higher than the pre-economic downturn peak of 185.5 in January 2008.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices increased by 0.8% between June and July 2015, compared to an increase of 1.2% in average prices during the same period a year earlier.

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4. House price index by country

During the year to July 2015, average house prices increased by 5.6% in England (down from 6.1% in the year to June 2015), 0.3% in Wales (down from 0.8%) and 7.4% in Northern Ireland (down from 9.0%). House prices fell by 1.3% in Scotland over the last 12 months (compared with annual fall of 0.6% last month).

The England house price index remained at a record level in July 2015 (Figure 4).

  • The index for England reached 215.3 in July 2015. This is 2.0% above the previous record level witnessed in June 2015 (211.0) and 19.1% higher than the pre-economic downturn peak in January 2008 of 180.8

  • The index for Scotland in July 2015 (230.1) is 5.4% below the record level witnessed in March 2015 (243.2). Scotland prices are now 0.2% below the pre-economic downturn peak of June 2008 (230.6)

  • The index for Wales in July 2015 (222.0) is 1.2% below the record level of 224.6 in January 2015. House prices in Wales are slightly lower than the pre-economic downturn peak of January 2008 (222.1)

  • The index for Northern Ireland in July 2015 (162.4) is 42.3% below the peak of August 2007 (281.5)

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5. House price index by region

The pace of annual house price growth slowed across the majority of the 9 English regions in July 2015 (Figure 5). The largest annual increase was again in the East at 8.3% (down from 9.2% in the year to June 2015), followed by the South East (6.7% increase in the year to July 2015, down from 7.7%). The North East was the only English region to see a fall in prices; here prices fell by 0.7% over the year. This is the first annual fall in North East house prices since July 2013.

London prices increased by 5.5% over the year to July 2015 (up from 5.3% in the year to June 2015).

Excluding London and the South East, UK house prices increased by 4.4% over the year to July 2015, down from 5.2% in the year to June 2015.

This month, average house prices in 7 of the 9 English regions are at record levels, with prices in the North West surpassing the pre-economic downturn peak of January 2008 for the first time (Figure 6). The only English regions not now at record levels are the North East and Yorkshire and The Humber.

The main regional price index movements for July 2015 are:

  • The price index for the North West reached a record level of 213.6 in July 2015. This is 1.5% higher than the previous record level of 210.4 in January 2008

  • The price index for the East Midlands reached a record level of 205.0 in July 2015. This is up 1.1% from the previous record level of 202.8 in June 2015. The price index for the East Midlands is 5.9% higher than the pre-economic downturn peak in January 2008 (193.5)

  • The price index for the West Midlands reached a record level of 197.0 in July 2015. This is up 2.8% from the previous record in June 2015 (191.6) and 6.3% higher than the pre-economic downturn peak in October 2007 (185.4)

  • The price index for the East reached a record level of 200.1 in July 2015. This is up 2.2% from the previous record in June 2015 (195.8) and 18.8% higher than the pre-economic downturn peak in January 2008 (168.4)

  • The price index for London is 2.4% above the previous record level of 249.1 in June 2015, reaching 255.2 in July 2015. The London index is 46.2% higher than the pre-economic downturn peak in January 2008 (174.5)

  • The price index for the South East reached a record level of 199.8 in July 2015. This is up 2.1% from the previous record in June 2015 (195.7) and 20.0% higher than the pre-economic downturn peak in January 2008 (166.5)

  • The price index for the South West reached a record level of 192.2 in July 2015. This is up 0.7% from the previous record in June 2015 (190.9) and 6.4% higher than the pre-economic downturn peak in October 2007 (180.7)

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6. Average house prices in countries and regions

Average mix-adjusted house prices in July 2015 stood at £295,000 in England, £173,000 in Wales, £154,000 in Northern Ireland and £196,000 in Scotland (Figure 7).

In July 2015, London continued to be the English region with the highest average house price at £525,000 and the North East had the lowest average house price at £156,000. London, the South East and the East all had prices higher than the UK average price of £282,000.

Excluding London and the South East, the average UK mix-adjusted house price was £215,000.

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7. House price index by type of buyer

The average price for properties bought by first-time buyers increased by 4.4% over the year to July 2015, down from an increase of 5.1% in the year to June 2015 (Figure 8). In July 2015, the average price paid for a house by a first-time buyer was £215,000.

The average price for properties bought by former owner-occupiers (existing owners) increased by 5.5% in the year to July 2015, down from an increase of 6.0% in the year to June 2015. In July 2015, the average price paid for a house by a former owner-occupier was £329,000.

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8. House price index by new and pre-owned dwellings

During the year to July 2015, prices paid for new dwellings increased by 5.8% on average, compared with an increase of 9.5% in the year to June 2015 (Figure 9). The average UK house price for new dwellings in July 2015 was £273,000.

During the year to July 2015, prices paid for pre-owned dwellings increased by 5.1% on average, compared with an increase of 5.4% in the year to June 2015. The average UK house price for pre-owned dwellings in July 2015 was £283,000.

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9. Economic context

The UK housing market continued to show signs of easing in July 2015, with annual house price growth slowing to 5.2%, the lowest rate of change since September 2013. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, prices grew by 0.8%, 0.2 percentage points above the June 2015 rate. The slowing in the annual rate of house price growth despite the monthly increase therefore reflects the relatively high base for comparison, with prices growing at a particularly strong rate in July 2014. The softening in the annual pace of house price growth continues a trend that has been in evidence since mid-2014: twelve months ago, the annual rate of house price growth reached 11.5%, more than double the headline rate this month.

Although weaker, the pace of house price growth remains strong by historical standards. With improving economic conditions sustaining a recovery in housing demand while supply remains tight, the mismatch between demand and supply continues to support house price growth.

A number of housing market indicators support this view. As highlighted in the Bank of England’s August Inflation Report, demand for house purchases continues to grow. Confirming this, the RICS Residential Market Survey for July reported a further rise in buyer demand, and the volume of mortgage approvals - a leading indicator of housing purchases - is now 12.8% above its level at the start of the year. Reflecting this growth in demand, UK home sales have continued to pick up and in the three months to July were 3.1% above the preceding three months.

While demand shows signs of strength, supply remains weak. The July 2015 ONS Output in the Construction Industry release indicates total housing output fell 2.7% in July and is now below its level in July 2014. The latest RICS data shows that new instructions to sell remained restricted and that the shortage of unsold stock worsened further during July, reaching a new record low. This combination of well-supported demand and increasingly tight supply continues to support market prices.

Broader economic indicators suggest that the economy has continued to grow relatively strongly over recent periods, with output increasing by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2015. Labour market conditions have continued to improve as unemployment remained at 5.6% and annual regular pay grew by 2.8% in the three months to June 2015. House price growth continues to outpace real earnings growth, but the gap is closing as the slowing housing market coincides with strengthening nominal pay growth and low inflation. These recent trends have improved households’ income expectations and their economic position more broadly, with possible implications for the evolution of house prices.

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.Background notes

  1. New this month

    New house price data for July 2015 are published this month. The monthly and quarterly reference table (3.59 Mb Excel sheet) (3.63 Mb Excel sheet) as been updated to include data for July 2015.

    Revisions this month

    There are small revisions to the seasonally adjusted series for the last 12 months, which are expected from the monthly seasonal adjustment process.

    Revisions next month

    No revisions are expected for the August 2015 HPI, apart from the normal revisions to the latest 12 months that follow the monthly seasonal adjustment process.

  2. Relevance of the ONS House Price Index

    The ONS HPI is an important measure of house price inflation for the UK and together with the Land Registry HPI, it is one of the main house price indices used by central and local government to support decision making in the UK. Other users include private individuals, surveyors and analysts in financial institutions.

    The ONS HPI is also an important input into the housing cost component of RPIJ and RPI retail price indices. Each month a customised HPI delivery is produced using a sub-sample of the full data set for use in RPIJ and RPI.

  3. Revisions policy

    At the end of every quarter, as well as releasing final figures for the latest month, we revise the figures from the previous 2 months. This is done because some mortgage lenders, which account for 1 to 2% of all records, provide their data on a quarterly rather than monthly basis.

    Additionally, data will be revised for the previous month if more than 1,000 additional cases are received in a subsequent month.

    In July 2013, the methodology used to seasonally adjust the HPI was updated following a review and brings the HPI in line with our best practice for seasonal adjustment. Seasonal factors are now estimated on a monthly basis and therefore may result in small revisions to the previous 12 months data. This updated process improves the accuracy of the seasonally adjusted figures.

    Other revisions to historical data (other than those currently due for revision) will be made only if the revision is substantial.

    In all cases, the revised figures are labelled with an 'R' and the reason for the revision explained under the 'New this month' section of the background notes.

  4. Methodology

    Data sources

    Since October 2005, the ONS HPI (formerly the DCLG HPI) has been based on a sample of mortgage completions data from the Regulated Mortgage Survey (RMS) as collected by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML).

    The number of transactions received from the RMS is affected by the total number of mortgages completed for house purchase in any period. During 2011, the sample covered 65 to 70% of all UK mortgage completions.

    Quality

    A Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) (131.8 Kb PDF) (131.8 Kb Pdf) report for the HPI describes in detail the intended uses of the statistics presented in this publication, their general quality and the methods used to produce them.

    Price methodology

    The ONS HPI is mix-adjusted to allow for differences between houses sold (for example, type, number of rooms, location) in different months within a year. House prices are modelled using a combination of characteristics to produce a model containing around 100,000 cells (one such cell could be first-time buyer, old dwelling, one bedroom flat purchased in London). Each month estimated prices for all cells are produced by the model and then combined with their appropriate weight to produce mix-adjusted average prices. The index values are based on growth rates in the mix-adjusted average house prices and are annually chain linked. More information on the model used is available via the hedonic model methodology paper (246.4 Kb PDF) (246.4 Kb Pdf) published on the HPI user guidance webpage.

    Re-weighting

    The ONS HPI is a weighted Laspeyres-type index. In January of each year the index weights are updated based on the relative numbers of transactions during the previous 3 years, which are grossed to total transactions obtained from Land Registry. Applying new weights ensures that the index keeps up to date with changes in the types of properties that are being purchased, and therefore reflects the price of the average property. A high level summary of the weights used in the calculation of the ONS HPI can be found in the HPI weights summary reference table (74 Kb Excel sheet). (74 Kb Excel sheet)

    One consequence of changing the weights every year is that the mix-adjusted house prices cannot be compared between years as the weights are different. The index itself is constructed on a chain-linked basis, which enables year-on-year comparisons to be made. This means that the year-on-year change in the index for June 2011, say, is effectively the change in the average price from June to January 2011 (using the weights for 2010) combined with the change in the average price from January to June 2011 using the weights for 2011. Therefore, the year- on-year change in the index is not the same as the year-on-year change in the mix-adjusted average price. More information on the HPI methodology is available on the GOV.UK website.

    Seasonal adjustment

    The housing market shows seasonal effects that affect house prices. For example, prices have tended to be higher during the summer months than during the winter months. These seasonal effects are estimated and adjusted for in order to calculate month-on-month price changes. Seasonally adjusted figures are provided at a national level in Table 7 alongside the non-seasonally adjusted figures of the other tables. Seasonal adjustment is performed each month and reviewed each year, using the standard and widely used software X-13-ARIMA. Seasonally adjusted house price estimates are used to report monthly percentage changes. All other figures such as annual rates of change and average house prices are based on non- seasonally adjusted estimates, unless otherwise stated.

  5. Other house price statistics

    Currently there are a number of different sources of house price statistics published in addition to the ONS HPI. There will be differences in the data published by each source as there are differences in both the data and methodology used. Therefore the ONS HPI is not directly comparable with these other indicators. Further details on the differences between official house price statistics can be found in the article Official House Price Statistics Explained (974.4 Kb PDF). (974.4 Kb Pdf)

    Land Registry house price index

    All residential property transactions in England and Wales are recorded by the Land Registry. These transactions are used for calculating the Land Registry index. This index is based on repeat- sales regression, which calculates the change in price of any property transacted twice since 1995. Therefore new build properties are excluded from the index. Land Registry publishes indices at a sub-regional level. The Land Registry HPI is normally published on the 20th working day of every month, and refers to all transactions of the preceding month.

    The Land Registry HPI can be accessed via the Land Registry's website.

    Registers of Scotland official quarterly housing market statistics

    Registers of Scotland records all the property transactions in Scotland. It produces average house prices based on arithmetic means of these transactions, which is published as the quarterly housing market statistics in the second month after the month to which the figures refer to.

    Northern Ireland residential property price index

    The Land and Property Services assisted by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) publish a quarterly residential property prices index (RPPI) for Northern Ireland. The index measures change in the price of residential property sales recorded by Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs. This is a new official statistic, first published in quarter 1 of 2012.

    Halifax house price index and Nationwide house price index

    Both Halifax and Nationwide produce house price indices based on their own mortgage approvals only and therefore, like the ONS HPI, will not include any cash transactions. They both have UK-wide coverage, and since the Halifax and Nationwide use only their own in-house data they can process them immediately and do not have to await the receipt of data from other lenders. This means that they are more timely than the ONS HPI.

    LSL Acadata house price index

    The LSL Acadata (previously the LSL Property Services/Acadametrics) HPI is the only house price index to reflect all transactions, as opposed to data samples, and provides mix and seasonally adjusted results at national, regional and county or unitary district or London borough levels. The index can be accessed at Acadata.

  6. Accessibility

    This bulletin includes the July 2015 data. Future publication dates for this statistical bulletin are available via the release calendar.

  7. General

    Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available from ourthe Media Relations Office. Also available is a list of the names of those given pre-release access to the contents of this release.

    Follow us on Twitter or join us at Facebook.

  8. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html or from the Media Relations Office email: media.relations@ons.gov.uk

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. Methodology

Manylion cyswllt ar gyfer y Bwletin ystadegol

Christopher Jenkins
christopher.jenkins@ons.gov.uk
Ffôn: +44 (0)1633 455474