Consumer price inflation, UK: October 2022

• The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) rose by 9.6% in the 12 months to October 2022, up from 8.8% in September 2022.

• The largest upward contributions to the annual CPIH inflation rate in October 2022 came from housing and household services (principally from electricity, gas, and other fuels), food and non-alcoholic beverages, and transport (principally motor fuels).

• On a monthly basis, CPIH rose by 1.6% in October 2022, compared with a rise of 0.9% in October 2021.

• The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 11.1% in the 12 months to October 2022, up from 10.1% in September 2022.

• On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 2.0% in October 2022, compared with a rise of 1.1% in October 2021.

• Despite the introduction of the government's Energy Price Guarantee, gas and electricity prices made the largest upward contribution to the change in both the CPIH and CPI annual inflation rates between September and October 2022.

• Rising food prices also made a large upward contribution to change with transport (principally motor fuels and second-hand car prices) making the largest, partially offsetting, downward contribution to the change in the rates.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) rose by 9.6% in the 12 months to October 2022, up from 8.8% in September 2022. The annual inflation rate was last higher in the constructed historical estimates in December 1980, when it stood at 9.8%. On a monthly basis, CPIH rose by 1.6% in October 2022, compared with a rise of 0.9% in the same month a year earlier.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 11.1% in the 12 months to October 2022, up from 10.1% in September 2022. In October 2022, the CPI annual inflation rate was the highest annual CPI inflation rate in the National Statistic series, which began in January 1997. Indicative modelled consumer price inflation estimates suggest that the CPI rate would have last been higher in October 1981, where the estimate for the annual inflation rate was 11.2%.

The CPI monthly rate was 2.0% in October 2022, compared with 1.1% in October 2021. This means that, between September and October 2022, the prices of goods and services bought or consumed by UK households have increased by 2.0%. This matched the annual CPI inflation rate in July 2021, meaning prices rose between September and October 2022 by as much as they did in the entire year to July 2021.

The largest contribution to the annual rate in October 2022 for both CPIH and CPI came from housing and household services. Other large contributions came from food and non-alcoholic beverages, and from transport.

Despite the introduction of the government's Energy Price Guarantee, gas and electricity prices made the largest upward contribution to the change in both the CPIH and CPI annual inflation rates between September and October 2022. The second largest upward contribution to the change came from rising food prices, while transport (principally motor fuels and second-hand cars) made the largest offsetting downward contribution. We consider these movements in more detail in Section 3.

The main drivers of the annual inflation rate for CPIH and CPI are the same where they are common to both measures. However, the owner occupiers' housing costs (OOH) component accounts for around 17% of the CPIH, and it is the main driver for differences between the CPIH and CPI inflation rates. This makes CPIH our most comprehensive measure of inflation, and it is covered in more detail in Section 4 in this bulletin, while Section 5 provides commentary on the CPI.

The increase to the annual inflation rate in October 2022 reflected, principally, the changes to the cost of domestic energy supplies. There were also increases from rising food and non-alcoholic beverage prices, and from items for recreation and culture. There were large, partially offsetting, downward effects from the transport section, more specifically from the price of motor fuels and second-hand cars.

Housing and household services

Overall, the cost of housing and household services rose 11.7% in the 12 months to October 2022, up from 9.3% in September 2022. This CPIH annual increase is the highest on record, including the modelled estimates. In October 1975, it is estimated that housing and household services inflation reached 11.4%, which was the previous record for this division since the modelled series began in 1950.

This increase followed the introduction of the government’s Energy Price Guarantee (EPG), which will be in place from 1 October 2022 until 31 March 2023. Energy prices rose for households in Great Britain, however, the rise was constrained by fixing the unit cost of electricity and gas. Under the EPG, the average unit cost (for a customer with typical usage, paying by direct debit) of gas rose from 7.8 pence per kilowatt hour (p/kWh) to 10.3 p/kWh, and electricity rose from 27.2 p/kWh to 34.0 p/kWh. However, without the EPG, the average unit prices for gas and electricity were expected to rise to 14.8 p/kWh and 51.9 p/kWh, respectively.

The average standing charges for customers on default tariffs will remain capped in line with the levels set (in Great Britain) by Ofgem for the default tariff cap from 1 October 2022, at 46p per day for electricity and 28p per day for gas, for a typical dual fuel customer paying by direct debit. It was forecast that a typical UK household will now pay up to an average £2,500 a year under the EPG. The introduction of the EPG meant that overall electricity, gas and other fuels prices rose by 24.3% between September and October 2022, with gas prices rising by 36.9% and electricity prices by 16.9%. As an indicative estimate, without the implementation of the EPG, electricity, gas and other fuels prices would have risen by nearly 75% between September and October 2022 (instead of 24%). This would have increased the contribution to the 12-month inflation rate from electricity, gas and other fuels from 2.59 percentage points to nearly 4.8 percentage points, taking the October 2022 headline rate for CPIH up to approximately 11.8%.

In October 2022, households are paying, on average, 88.9% more for their electricity, gas, and other fuels than they were paying a year ago. Domestic gas prices have seen the largest increase, with prices in October 2022 being more than double the price a year earlier. The prices for liquid fuels and for electricity have risen by 70.0% and 65.7%, respectively, in the year to October 2022.

We have also noted increases to the price of solid fuels (including smokeless fuels). The prices for this item tend not to increase from year to year but, since the start of the year, we have seen notable increases, with prices in October 2022 being 36.4% higher than a year ago, perhaps because of households seeking alternative forms of heating.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages

Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose by 16.4% in the 12 months to October 2022, up from 14.6% in September 2022. The annual rate of inflation for this category has continued to rise for the last 15 consecutive months, from negative 0.6% in July 2021. The current rate is estimated to be the highest since September 1977, when the food and non-alcoholic beverages annual inflation rate was 17.6%, as presented in the consumer price inflation extended historic series.

The increase in the annual rate for food and non-alcoholic beverages between September and October 2022 was driven by price movements across 10 of the 11 more detailed classes. The largest upward effect came from milk, cheese, and eggs, where prices for shop-bought milk and cheddar cheese rose between September and October 2022 but by more than between the same two months in 2021.

Overall prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages have risen throughout 2022. Despite prices rising more slowly (by 1.1%) between August and September 2022, there was a resurgence in the monthly increase between September and October 2022; prices increased by 2.0%, which is the second monthly increase of 2% or more this year.

Recreation and culture

There was an overall upward contribution of 0.06 percentage points to the change in the annual inflation rate from the recreation and culture section. The largest upward contribution (of 0.06 percentage points) came from audio-visual equipment and related products, principally recording media. Price movements for some recording media items can sometimes be large, in part depending on the composition of bestseller charts, so short-term movements need to be interpreted with caution.

There were smaller upward contributions from cultural services and books, where prices overall rose between September and October 2022, but fell between the same two months in 2021. These upward contributions were partially offset by a downwards effect from across the other recreational items, garden and pets grouping, where prices overall fell between September and October 2022 but rose between the same two months in 2021.

Transport

The annual inflation rate for transport was 9.3% in October 2022, down for a fourth consecutive month from a peak of 15.2% in June 2022. Prices were unchanged between September and October 2022 but had increased by 1.5% in 2021. This resulted in a 0.18 percentage point downward contribution to the change in the annual inflation rate.

Unlike recent months, where the downward movement in the transport division has been dominated by falling motor fuel prices, in October 2022, there were large downward effects from both motor fuels (a downward contribution of 0.09 percentage points) and second-hand cars (0.07 percentage points)

Overall, fuel prices fell by 0.5% between September and October 2022 but prices at the pump were still 22.2% more expensive than they were in October 2021. For the individual fuel types, the movements for petrol and diesel were noticeably different.

Average petrol and diesel prices stood at 163.6 and 183.9 pence per litre, respectively, in October 2022, compared with 138.6 and 142.2 pence per litre a year earlier. While prices remain higher than a year ago, petrol prices fell by 2.9 pence per litre on the month while diesel prices rose by 2.3 pence per litre. This has resulted in a notable 20.3 pence per litre difference between diesel and petrol prices – the largest difference since our recorded series began in 2004. Anecdotally, this could be a consequence of a surge in global demand for diesel for electricity production.

The price of second-hand cars fell by 0.6% between September and October 2022, compared with a 4.6% rise in prices between the same months in 2021. Prices had risen significantly between May and November 2021 because of increased demand following the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, lower levels of second-hand car stock, and the global semiconductor microchip shortage. This month's fall in prices meant they fell below the level of last October. This is the first month since before the pandemic that second-hand car prices have been cheaper than they were a year ago.

Figure 4 shows the annual inflation rates for the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) all goods and all services series, together with CPIH excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco (often referred to as core CPIH). The CPIH inflation rate is added for comparison.

The introduction of the government's Energy Price Guarantee on 1 October 2022 has contributed to the 2.9% increase to the CPIH goods inflation rate between September and October 2022. The CPIH goods annual inflation rate increased to 14.8%, from 13.2% in September 2022. This is the highest rate on record, while both CPIH services and core CPIH inflation remain at their highest rate since March 1993 and March 1992, respectively.

The services and core CPIH annual inflation rates were unchanged in October 2022 at 5.3% and 5.8%, respectively. Between September and October 2022, CPIH services rose by 0.5% in the month, compared with an increase of 0.4% in October 2021, while CPIH core inflation rose by 0.6%, which is the same monthly increase as in October 2021.

Figure 5 shows how each of the main groups of goods and services contributed to the change in the annual CPIH inflation rate between September and October 2022. To understand what has changed the inflation rate between these months, we can look at the differences between the contributions made by the groups to the rate in September 2022 and the rate in October 2022. Summing the contributions to change across the 12 divisions results in the change to the annual CPIH rate between the latest two months, that is, the rise from 8.8% to 9.6%.

The increase to the annual CPIH rate into October 2022 was driven by upward contributions from 7 of the 12 divisions but was dominated by the notable upward contribution (of 0.74 percentage points) coming from gas and electricity prices. There were further large upward contributions from food and non-alcoholic beverages (0.15 percentage points), and recreation and culture (0.06 percentage points). There was a partially offsetting, large downward contribution from the transport division (0.18 percentage points), principally from motor fuels and second-hand cars.

Figure 6 shows the extent to which the distinct categories of goods and services have contributed to the overall annual CPIH inflation rate over the past two years. The contribution of lower-level spending categories to the annual rate depends on both the price movement in those categories as well as their weight. Contributions help to understand what is driving the inflation rate by expressing it as the additive sum of its parts. For any one month, when added together, the contributions from the 12 divisions sum to the overall CPIH inflation rate, for example, 9.6% in October 2022.

The largest upward contributions to the annual CPIH inflation rate in October 2022 came from housing and household services (principally from electricity, gas, and other fuels), food and non-alcoholic beverages, and transport. Contributions from these three divisions accounted for 6.2 percentage points, which is nearly two-thirds of the annual CPIH inflation rate compared with just over half the expenditure in the CPIH basket.

There was a further increase of 0.15 percentage points to the contribution to the annual CPIH inflation rate from food and non-alcoholic beverages between September and October 2022. The contribution from the transport division fell by 0.18 percentage points, taking its contribution to the annual CPIH inflation rate down to 1.02 percentage points.

The contributions from housing and household services (3.68 percentage points), and food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.48 percentage points), which have both increased between September and October 2022, are the largest since the start of the National Statistics series in 2006.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) differs from the CPIH in that it does not include owner occupiers' housing costs (OOH) and Council Tax. Figure 7 shows the contribution of these components to the annual CPIH inflation rate in the context of wider housing-related costs. In October 2022, the contribution of housing and household services in total to the annual CPIH inflation rate was 3.68 percentage points, up from 2.94 percentage points in September 2022. The October figure was the highest in the National Statistic series, which began in January 2006.

The relatively high contribution to the rate since April 2022 came mainly from electricity, gas, and other fuels. This reflects price rises for gas and electricity following the increase in the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) cap on energy prices on 1 April 2022 and follows an earlier rise in the price cap on 1 October 2021.

From 1 October 2022, the Ofgem energy price cap was replaced with the government's Energy Price Guarantee (EPG). The EPG will be in place until 31 March 2023. Under the EPG, energy prices increased. However, the rate of increase was reduced by limiting the unit cost of electricity and gas so that a typical household in Great Britain pays, on average, around £2,500 a year on their energy bill.

On 31 October 2022, we made an announcement following the completion of our classification review of the Energy Price Guarantee and Energy Bill Relief Scheme. We concluded the EPG will influence the prices that domestic consumers are charged for each unit of gas or electricity, and these reduced prices will be used in compiling the measures of consumer price inflation (see Section 8).

Between September and October 2022, gas and electricity prices rose by 36.9% and 16.9%, respectively. Gas prices rose by 128.9% and electricity prices by 65.7% in the 12 months to October 2022, leading to a 2.59 percentage point contribution to the annual inflation rate from electricity, gas, and other fuels in total.

The contribution to the annual rate from Council Tax remains unchanged at 0.10 percentage points in October 2022. This reflects an annual rate of 3.4%.

While the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) is our lead and most comprehensive measure of consumer price inflation, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) is based on a harmonised methodology developed by Eurostat and allows for international comparisons to be drawn. For more information on the use cases for our consumer price inflation statistics, please refer to our Measuring changing prices and costs for consumers and households, proposed updates: March 2020 article.

Figure 8 shows the annual inflation rates for the CPI all goods and all services series, together with CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco (often referred to as core CPI).

Figure 9 shows how each of the main groups of goods and services contributed to the change in the annual CPI inflation rate between September and October 2022.

Like CPIH, the rise in the annual CPI rate into October 2022 was driven by contributions from 7 of the 12 divisions. The largest upward contributions to the change in the annual inflation rate came from housing and household services (0.93 percentage points), food and non-alcoholic beverages (0.18 percentage points), and recreation and culture (0.07 percentage points).

The introduction of the EPG meant that overall electricity, gas and other fuels prices rose by 24.7% between September and October 2022, with gas prices rising by 36.9% and electricity prices by 16.9%, however the increases would have been notably higher without the EPG’s introduction.

As an indicative estimate, without the implementation of the EPG, electricity, gas and other fuels prices would have risen by nearly 75% between September and October 2022 (instead of 25%). This would have meant that the upward contribution to the change in the annual CPI inflation rate from housing and household services would have increased to approximately 3.7 percentage points, instead of 0.93 percentage points, taking the CPI annual inflation rate up to approximately 13.8%.

These upward contributions were partially offset by a large downward contribution (of 0.23 percentage points) from transport, coming from motor fuels (0.12 percentage points) and second-hand cars (0.10 percentage points).

Figure 10 shows the extent to which the distinct categories of goods and services have contributed to the overall annual CPI inflation rate over the last two years.

While the CPIH includes extra housing components not included in the CPI, the largest contributions to the annual CPI inflation rate were from the same divisions that made the largest contributions to the annual CPIH rate, namely housing and household services, transport, and food and non-alcoholic beverages.

Figure 11 illustrates CPI inflation against the Group of Seven (G7) countries that produce a comparable measure.

Annual inflation rate

The most common approach to measuring inflation is the 12-month or annual inflation rate, which compares prices for the latest month with the same month a year ago. In any given month, the annual rate is determined by the balance between upward and downward price movements of the range of goods and services included in the index.

Consumer price inflation

Consumer price inflation is the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall. It is estimated by using price indices. For an overview of the indices and their uses, please see our Consumer price indices, a brief guide: 2017 article.

Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH)

CPIH is the most comprehensive measure of inflation. It extends the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) to include a measure of the costs associated with owning, maintaining and living in one's own home, known as owner occupiers' housing costs (OOH), along with Council Tax. Both are significant expenses for many households and are not included in the CPI.

Consumer Prices Index

The CPI is a measure of consumer price inflation produced to international standards and in line with European regulations. The CPI is the inflation measure used in the government's target for inflation.

The CPI is produced at the same level of detail as the CPIH in the accompanying dataset and accompanying data time series.

Retail Prices Index (RPI)

RPI does not meet the required standard for designation as a National Statistic. In recognition that it continues to be widely used in contracts, we continue to publish the RPI, its subcomponents and RPI excluding mortgage interest payments (RPIX). To view the all-items RPI, please see the data time series section of the inflation and price indices area of our website. The annual RPI inflation rate was 14.2% in October 2022.

The UK Statistics Authority and HM Treasury launched a consultation in 2020 on the authority's proposal to address the shortcomings of the RPI. From 2030 (at the earliest), as outlined in the UK Statistics Authority response to the consultation, the CPIH methods and data sources will be introduced into the RPI. Additionally, the supplementary and lower-level indices of the RPI will be discontinued.

Assessment of the Energy Price Guarantee and the Energy Bill Relief Scheme

On 31 October 2022, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the conclusion of its classification review of the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) for domestic consumers, and the Energy Bill Relief Scheme (EBRS) for non-domestic consumers, in the context of international statistical guidance.

The payments under these schemes will be classified as subsidies on products, paid by central government to the energy suppliers in the non-financial corporations sector in the UK. The implication of the classification decision for consumer price inflation is that the EPG influences the prices that domestic consumers are charged for a unit of gas or electricity. It is these reduced unit prices that will be used in compiling the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH), Consumer Prices Index (CPI) and Retail Prices Index (RPI), which will therefore be lower while the schemes are in operation than if the EPG had not been introduced.

Treatment of the Energy Bills Support Scheme (EBSS)

On 3 February 2022, the UK government announced an Energy Bills Rebate package to help households to manage rising energy bills. On 26 May 2022, the UK government announced an additional cost of living support package. These packages included:

• a £150 non-repayable Council Tax rebate payment for all households that are liable for Council Tax in Bands A to D in England

• a £400 payment to support households with their energy bills through the Energy Bills Support Scheme

Decisions on whether to include rebates, subsidies and discounts in our consumer price inflation statistics are not clear cut and are taken on a case-by-case basis. We aim to be consistent with the national accounts, the public sector finances and other economic statistics. Decisions are based on international statistical guidance and practical considerations. More information on this is provided in Section 9.2 of our Consumer Price Indices Technical Manual. We have previously announced that the Council Tax rebate is out of scope of the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) and Retail Prices Index (RPI). Council Tax is not included in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI).

The ONS classifications assessment of the EBSS and its treatment in consumer price indices was announced on 31 August 2022. The EBSS has been classified as a current transfer paid by central government to the households sector. As such, the transfers increase household income rather than reduce household expenditure. The implication of this decision, and in line with the ONS's previous decision on the classification of the Council Tax rebate, is that the EBSS is not part of household expenditure and will therefore be treated as out of scope of the consumer price indices.

Treatment of Council Tax rebate

In April 2022, a £150 non-repayable Council Tax rebate payment was provided to all households that are liable for Council Tax in Bands A to D in England. There was also further funding available for households that need support but are not eligible for this rebate, and for the devolved countries to administer to households in Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. This rebate was out of scope of CPIH and therefore not reflected in the figures.

CPIH-consistent inflation rate estimates for UK household groups: July to October 2022

Every quarter, we publish experimental estimates of inflation rates for different types of households on a CPIH-basis, including for example inflation rates for households in different income deciles, different types of tenure, and retirement status. Today's publication includes monthly data for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022. For this publication, we have additionally extended the time period to incorporate the latest October estimates, as well as producing subgroup estimates on a CPI basis, which brings up to date our analysis from January 2022. The data release is supported by the Inflation and the cost of living for household groups: October 2022 article.

Analysis of lowest-cost grocery items

On 25 October 2022, we published our experimental analysis of price changes for a sample of lowest-cost grocery items, which provided an update to analysis previously published in May 2022. The analysis uses in-house web-scraped data to investigate the price movements for a sample of 30 everyday grocery items (including pasta, rice, milk, and so on), which are commonly bought by households on low incomes.

For each item, we have investigated the change in price of the cheapest product available in online shops up to September 2022.

Personal inflation calculator

To assist individuals in understanding how the rise in inflation affects their expenditure, we have produced a personal inflation calculator. The calculator allows users to enter the amount they spend across either a reduced or a wide range of categories, to produce an estimate of their personal inflation based on those spending patterns.

If you have any questions or comments on the inflation calculator, please email cpi@ons.gov.uk.

Consumer price inflation historical estimates, UK, 1950 to 1988

On 18 May 2022, we published the Consumer price inflation, historical estimates, UK, 1950 to 1988 – methodology. This includes new estimates of CPIH over the period, and improved estimates of CPI. These estimates (published in response to user need for a longer series) are indicative and are for analytical purposes only. They are not intended for official use and do not constitute part of the National Statistic series.

Previously, in December 2018, we published a CPIH historical series covering the period from 1989 to 2005 in the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) historical series: 1988 to 2004 article. This series is an official statistic rather than a National Statistic, reflecting the historical uncertainty around the back casts.

Weights for consumer price inflation statistics

In line with usual practice, the expenditure weights used in compiling the CPIH and CPI will be updated at the start of 2023. Normally the weights would be updated using the latest Blue Book-consistent household final consumption expenditure (HFCE) dataset, which is lagged by two years. The unprecedented events of the last few years have meant we have adjusted expenditure feeding into the weights update to incorporate some of the larger changes seen in spending patterns, so they are more reflective of the year immediately prior to use in consumer inflation. More information on these adjustments can be found in Section 2 of our Consumer price inflation, updating weights: 2022 article.

We are considering the most suitable approach to use for the forthcoming 2023 update of expenditure weights. In particular, this will take into account any continued, large shifts in consumer spending along with international guidance and best practice. We will aim to announce our agreed approach for the update of 2023 consumer inflation weights in the November 2022 release, to be published on 14 December 2022 subject to the publication of international guidance.

Methodology information

The consumer price indices are normally based on prices collected from outlets around the country, supplemented by information collected centrally over the internet and by phone. The figures in this publication use data collected on or around 11 October 2022.

Our Consumer price indices, a brief guide article gives an overview of consumer price statistics, while our Consumer Prices Indices Technical Manual covers the concepts and methodologies underpinning the indices in more detail.

Our CPIH Compendium provides a comprehensive source of information on the CPIH, focusing on the approach to measuring owner occupiers' housing costs.

Our Users and uses of consumer price inflation statistics: July 2018 update methodology article includes information on the users and uses of these statistics, and the characteristics of the different measures of inflation in relation to potential use.

We have illustrated our future approach to measuring changing prices and costs faced by consumers and households using three "use cases", along with how they relate to the measures currently published and those under development. We have also published proposed updates in our Measuring changing prices and costs for consumers and households, proposed updates: March 2020 article.

The three cases refer firstly to the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) as our lead measure of inflation based on economic principles. They also refer to the Household Costs Indices (HCIs) as a set of measures to reflect the change in costs as experienced by households and the Retail Prices Index (RPI) as a legacy measure that is required to meet existing user needs. Our Shortcomings of the RPI as a measure of inflation article describes the issues with the RPI.