Consumer price inflation, UK: March 2024

• The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) rose by 3.8% in the 12 months to March 2024, unchanged from February.
• On a monthly basis, CPIH rose by 0.6% in March 2024, compared with a rise of 0.7% in March 2023.

• The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.2% in the 12 months to March 2024, down from 3.4% in February.

• On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.6% in March 2024, compared with a rise of 0.8% in March 2023.

• The largest downward contribution to the monthly change in both CPIH and CPI annual rates came from food, with prices rising by less than a year ago, while the largest, partially offsetting, upward contribution came from motor fuels, with prices rising this year but falling a year ago.

• Core CPIH (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose by 4.7% in the 12 months to March 2024, down slightly from 4.8% in February; the CPIH goods annual rate slowed from 1.1% to 0.9%, while the CPIH services annual rate was unchanged at 6.0%.

• Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose by 4.2% in the 12 months to March 2024, down from 4.5% in February; the CPI goods annual rate slowed from 1.1% to 0.8%, while the CPI services annual rate eased slightly from 6.1% to 6.0%.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) rose by 3.8% in the 12 months to March 2024, unchanged from February but down from a recent peak of 9.6% in October 2022.

Our indicative modelled consumer price inflation estimates suggest that the October 2022 inflation rate was the highest in over 40 years (the CPIH Accredited Official Statistic series begins in January 2006). The annual rate in March 2024 equalled that of February 2024 and October 2021. The rate was last lower in September 2021.

The monthly CPIH rate in March 2024 was 0.6%, compared with 0.7% a year earlier.

The owner occupiers' housing costs (OOH) component of CPIH rose by 6.3% in the 12 months to March 2024, up from 6.0% in February. This is the highest annual rate since July 1992 in the constructed historical series. OOH costs rose by 0.6% on the month, compared with a 0.3% increase between February and March 2023.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.2% in the 12 months to March 2024, down from 3.4% to February and well below its recent peak of 11.1% in October 2022. Our indicative modelled consumer price inflation estimates suggest that the October 2022 peak was the highest rate in over 40 years (the CPI Accredited Official Statistic series begins in January 1997). The annual rate in March 2024 was the lowest since September 2021, when it was 3.1%.

The easing in the annual rate between February and March 2024 was a result of prices rising by 0.6% on the month, compared with a rise of 0.8% a year earlier.

The main drivers of the annual inflation rate for CPIH and CPI are the same where they are common to both measures. However, the OOH component accounts for approximately 16% of the CPIH and is the main driver for differences between the CPIH and CPI inflation rates. This makes CPIH our most comprehensive measure of inflation. We cover this in more detail in Section 4: Latest movements in CPIH inflation and provide a commentary on the CPI in Section 5: Latest movements in CPI inflation. We also cover both CPIH and CPI in Section 3: Notable movements in prices, though the figures reflect CPIH.

The unchanged Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) annual inflation rate in March 2024 reflected offsetting contributions from the different product groups. There were downward contributions from five divisions, most notably food and non-alcoholic beverages, offset by upward contributions from three divisions, particularly housing and household services.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages

Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 4.0% in the year to March 2024, down from 5.0% to February. The March figure is the lowest annual rate since November 2021. The rate has eased for the 12th consecutive month from a recent high of 19.2% in March 2023, the highest annual rate seen for over 45 years.

Prices rose by 0.2% between February and March 2024, compared with a monthly rise of 1.1% a year ago. Prices have been relatively high but stable since early summer 2023, rising by less than 2% between May 2023 and March 2024. This compares with a sharp rise of around 22% seen between March 2022 and May 2023.

The annual rates for most types of food product eased between February and March 2024, with the largest effects coming from bread and cereals, and meat. Prices for bread and cereals rose by 0.2% on the month, compared with a rise of 2.2% a year ago, resulting in an annual rate in March 2024 of 4.0% – the lowest since January 2022. Prices of some bakery products, such as chocolate biscuits and crumpets, fell between February and March 2024 but rose between the same period a year ago.

Meat prices fell by 0.5% between February and March this year, compared with a rise of 1.4% a year ago. This resulted in an annual rate of 3.1% in the year to March 2024, the lowest rate since November 2021. The main downward effect behind the easing in the rate came from pork products.

Overall, the annual rate eased in 8 of the 11 food and non-alcoholic beverages classes, the exceptions being vegetables, hot beverages, and soft drinks.

Furniture and household goods

Prices of furniture and household goods fell by 0.9% in the year to March 2024, compared with a small rise of 0.1% to February. This is the largest annual fall in prices since September 2016 and the first negative rate since December 2020. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.3% between February and March 2024, compared with a rise of 1.3% a year ago.

The easing in the annual rate reflected small downward effects from a range of classes, principally furniture and furnishings, and non-durable household goods. Prices of furniture and furnishings fell by 2.3% in the year to March 2024, compared with an annual fall of 1.6% to February. Prices of non-durable household goods rose by 1.1% in the year to March, compared with a larger rise of 4.5% to February. The non-durable household goods downward effect was caused by price movements for household cleaning products.

Clothing and footwear

Prices of clothing and footwear rose by 3.9% in the year to March 2024, down from 5.0% the previous month. The rate in March was the lowest since November 2021. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.6% between February and March 2024, compared with a rise of 1.6% a year ago. This reflects the incidence of discounting in the dataset, which fell by less this year than a year ago. Prices tend to rise between February and March as new season stock continues to enter the shops but the rise in 2024 was less than in most recent years.

The downward effect came principally from women’s clothing and footwear, with prices rising on the month but by less than a year ago.

Housing and household services

The overall easing in the inflation rate was partially offset by an upward effect from housing and household services, whose annual rate was 3.1% in March 2024, up from 2.9% to February. This compares with a recent annual peak of 11.8% observed in January and February 2023.

The increase in the annual rate reflected an upward effect from owner occupiers’ housing (OOH) costs, which rose by 6.3% in the year to March 2024, compared with a rise of 6.0% to February. The OOH annual rate was last higher in July 1992.

Transport

Prices in the transport division fell by 0.1% in the year to March 2024, compared with a fall of 0.4% to February. The annual rate has been negative for the latest five months.

The small overall change in the annual rate masks offsetting movements in some of the transport categories, with a large upward effect from motor fuels partially offset by smaller downward effects from second-hand cars, rail fares and air fares.

The average price of petrol rose by 2.6 pence per litre between February and March 2024 to stand at 144.8 pence per litre, down from 146.8 pence per litre in March 2023. Diesel prices rose by 2.8 pence per litre in March to stand at 154.1 pence per litre, down from 166.5 pence per litre in March 2023. These movements resulted in overall motor fuel prices falling by 3.7% in the year to March 2024, compared with a fall of 6.5% in February.

There was also a small upward effect from maintenance and repairs, where prices rose by 0.8% in March 2024, compared with a monthly fall of 0.6% a year ago. This was because prices of roadside recovery services rose this year but fell a year ago.

Second-hand car prices rose by 0.2% between February and March 2024, compared with a larger rise of 1.0% a year ago. On an annual basis, prices fell by 8.1% in the year to March 2024, compared with a fall of 7.3% to February. The annual rate has been negative for eight consecutive months.

The small downward effects from rail fares and air fares resulted from prices rising on the month this year by less than a year ago. The annual rise in regulated rail fares in England in March 2024 was capped at a lower rate than in March 2023. Air fares rose by just 0.1% between February and March this year, compared with a 7.7% monthly increase a year ago, with the main downward effect coming from European routes.

Figure 5 shows the annual inflation rates for the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) series for all goods and all services, together with CPIH excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco (often referred to as core CPIH). The CPIH inflation rate is added for comparison.

The core CPIH annual inflation rate was 4.7% in March 2024, which was the lowest rate since February 2022. It is down slightly from 4.8% in February 2024 and from a recent high of 6.5% in May 2023, which was the highest rate since November 1991, when it was also 6.5% in the constructed historical series.

The CPIH all goods index rose by 0.9% in the 12 months to March 2024, down from 1.1% in February, and the lowest rate since March 2021. The slowing in the annual rate has been caused principally by downward contributions to the change from food and non-energy industrial goods, particularly household goods, and clothing and footwear goods. These have been partially offset by an upward contribution from energy, principally from motor fuels.

The CPIH all services index rose by 6.0% in the 12 months to March 2024, unchanged from February. The largest upward contribution to change came from housing services, particularly owner occupiers’ housing costs. This was offset by downward contributions from transport services, and catering services.

Figure 6 shows how each of the main groups of goods and services contributed to the change in the annual CPIH inflation rate between February and March 2024. To understand what has changed the inflation rate between these months, we can look at the differences between the contributions each of the 12 divisions made to the rate in February 2024 and the rate in March 2024. These differences sum to the change in the annual CPIH rate between the latest two months. Between February and March, the contributions to change largely offset and, partly because of rounding, the rate remained at 3.8%.

The unchanged rate in March 2024 reflected downward contributions from five divisions, offset by upward contributions from three divisions. The largest downward contributions came from food and non-alcoholic beverages, furniture and household goods, and clothing and footwear. The largest upward contributions were from housing and household services, transport, and communication.

Figure 7 shows the extent to which the distinct categories of goods and services have contributed to the overall annual CPIH inflation rate over the last two years. The contribution of each category to the annual rate depends on the price movement in that category as well as its weight, which is updated annually. Contributions help to explain what is driving the inflation rate by expressing it as the additive sum of its parts. For any one month, when added together, the contributions from the 12 divisions sum to the overall CPIH inflation rate, for example, 3.8% in March 2024.

The largest upward contributions to the annual CPIH inflation rate in March 2024 came from housing and household services, restaurants and hotels, and recreation and culture. The contribution from housing and household services rose from 0.87 percentage points in February 2024 to 0.94 percentage points in March, the contribution from restaurants and hotels eased slightly to 0.67 percentage points, and the contribution from recreation and culture was unchanged at 0.63 percentage points.

The contribution from food and non-alcoholic beverages eased for the 12th consecutive month, from a recent high of 1.76 percentage points in March 2023 to 0.39 percentage points in March 2024. This was the lowest contribution from this division since January 2022, when it was also 0.39 percentage points.

Small negative contributions to the annual CPIH inflation rate came from furniture and household goods, and transport. This was the first negative contribution from furniture and household goods since December 2020. Transport provided a negative contribution for the fifth consecutive month, albeit the negative contribution has become smaller, from -0.16 percentage points in November 2023 to a marginal -0.01 percentage points in March 2024.

Figure 8 shows the contribution of owner occupiers’ housing (OOH) costs and Council Tax to the annual CPIH inflation rate in the context of wider housing-related costs. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) differs from the CPIH in that it does not include these two components.

OOH’s contribution rose from 0.95 to 1.01 percentage points between February and March 2024. This is the largest contribution since at least January 2006.

While the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) is our lead and most comprehensive measure of consumer price inflation, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) is based on a harmonised methodology developed by Eurostat and allows for international comparisons to be drawn. For more information on the use cases for our consumer price inflation statistics, please refer to our Measuring changing prices and costs for consumers and households: December 2023 article.

Figure 9 shows CPI inflation for the UK against the EU and selected Group of Seven (G7) countries. While the UK CPI is produced on a comparable basis with European Union countries, the United States Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measure differs in some respects - see figure 9, note 1.

Figure 10 shows the annual inflation rates for the CPI all goods and all services series, together with CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco (often referred to as core CPI). The headline CPI inflation rate is added for comparison.

Core CPI rose by 4.2% in the year to March 2024, down from 4.5% in February and below its recent high of 7.1% in May 2023, which was the highest recorded since 7.2% in March 1992 in the constructed historical series. The CPI all goods index rose by 0.8% in the year to March 2024, down from 1.1% to February, and the lowest since March 2021. The CPI all services index rose by 6.0% in the year to March 2024, down slightly from 6.1% in February and down from 7.4% in July 2023, which was the joint highest rate (with May 2023) since March 1992.

As with the all-items annual inflation rates, the drivers of CPIH and CPI goods and services inflation are the same (with the exception of owner occupiers’ housing costs and Council Tax, which are excluded from CPI). The drivers are discussed in more detail in Section 4: Latest movements in CPIH inflation.

Figure 11 shows how each of the main groups of goods and services contributed to the change in the annual CPI inflation rate between February and March 2024.

The easing in the rate into March 2024 was driven by downward contributions from six divisions, partially offset by upward contributions from three divisions. The largest downward contributions came from food and non-alcoholic beverages, furniture and household goods, and clothing and footwear.

Although the sizes of the contributions differ from CPIH, the main drivers to the change are the same where they are common to both measures.

Figure 12 shows the extent to which the distinct categories of goods and services have contributed to the overall annual CPI inflation rate over the last two years.

The CPIH includes extra housing components not included in the CPI. This can result in the largest contributions to the annual CPI and CPIH inflation rates coming from different divisions such as in March 2024, when the largest-contributing divisions to the CPI rate were restaurants and hotels (0.82 percentage points) and recreation and culture (0.73 percentage points).

Annual inflation rate

The most common approach to measuring inflation is the 12-month or annual inflation rate, which compares prices for the latest month with the same month a year ago. In any given month, the annual rate is determined by the balance between upward and downward price movements of the range of goods and services included in the index.

Consumer price inflation

Consumer price inflation is the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall. It is estimated by using price indices. For an overview of the range of indices available and their uses, please see our Consumer price indices, a brief guide: 2017 and our Measuring changing prices and costs for consumers and households: December 2023 article.

Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH)

The CPIH is the most comprehensive measure of inflation. It extends the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) to include a measure of the costs associated with owning, maintaining and living in one's own home, known as owner occupiers' housing costs (OOH), along with Council Tax. Both are significant expenses for many households and are not included in the CPI.

Consumer Prices Index

The CPI is a measure of consumer price inflation produced to international standards and is based on European regulations for the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. The CPI is the inflation measure used in the government's target for inflation.

The CPI is produced at the same level of detail as the CPIH in our accompanying dataset and accompanying data time series.

Retail Prices Index (RPI)

The RPI does not meet the required standard for designation as an Accredited Official Statistic. In recognition that it continues to be widely used in contracts, we continue to publish the RPI, its subcomponents and RPI excluding mortgage interest payments (RPIX). To view the all-items RPI, please see the data time series section of the inflation and price indices area of our website. The annual RPI inflation rate was 4.3% in March 2024.

The UK Statistics Authority and HM Treasury launched a consultation in 2020 on the Authority's proposal to address the shortcomings of the RPI. From 2030 (at the earliest), as outlined in the UK Statistics Authority response to the consultation, the CPIH methods and data sources will be introduced into the RPI. Additionally, the supplementary and lower-level indices of the RPI will be discontinued.

Alternative data sources

We are undertaking a programme of transformation across our consumer price statistics, including identifying new sources, improving methods and developing systems. More information about the project and our ongoing transformation plans can be found in our updated Research and developments in the transformation of UK consumer price statistics article, released on 1 December 2023. The latest release includes information on the transformation of consumer price statistics on second-hand cars and private rents, which we introduced with the February 2024 index, and our proposed approach to outlier detection in grocery scanner data.

As usual, we welcome your feedback on our work by email to cpi@ons.gov.uk.

Weights for 2024 consumer price inflation statistics

In line with usual practice at the start of each year, the expenditure weights used in compiling the consumer price inflation statistics were updated. For the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) and the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), they were calculated using national accounts household final consumption expenditure (HHFCE) data for 2022. This is in line with our standard methodology of using data lagged by two years.

It differs from the approach used over the last few years when there were large changes seen in spending patterns as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Over these years, we adjusted the spending data so that the resulting weights were more reflective of the year immediately before use in consumer price inflation. More information on weights updating is available in our Consumer price inflation, updating weights articles.

The weights for the Retail Prices Index (RPI) were also updated for 2024 in line with the practice followed both before and during the coronavirus period, with no additional adjustment to the spending data because of any coronavirus effects.

The weights used to produce the CPI and CPIH have historically been rounded to integers as parts per thousand of the all items indices. From 2024, we are now using unrounded weights in compiling the indices. The RPI weights continue to be based on integer weights.

Households and the cost of living

To assist individuals in understanding how the rise in inflation affects their expenditure, we have produced a personal inflation calculator. The calculator allows users to enter the amount they spend across either a reduced or a wide range of categories, to produce an estimate of their personal inflation based on those spending patterns.

Our shopping prices comparison tool shows how the average prices of items have changed over time. As a result, the number of average price series in Table 55 in our Consumer price inflation dataset has been reduced to two, covering petrol and diesel, and Table 54 has been discontinued. The average price data originally presented in these tables are currently still available as time series on our website and can be found using the four-character identifiers in Table 55.

On 26 February 2024, we published our quarterly Household Costs Indices (HCIs) for UK household groups. These are official statistics in development and this release included new estimates for October to December 2023. The HCIs reflect how different types of households experience changing prices and differ from CPIH and CPI, which are based on recognised economic principles and which provide an aggregate measure of inflation for household spending in the UK.

Consumer price inflation historical estimates, UK, 1950 to 1988

On 18 May 2022, we published our Consumer price inflation, historical estimates, UK, 1950 to 1988 - methodology and Consumer price inflation, historical estimates and recent trends, UK: 1950 to 2022 article. These include new estimates of CPIH and improved estimates of CPI for the period 1950 to 1988. These estimates (published in response to user need for a longer series) are indicative and are for analytical purposes only. They are not intended for official use and do not constitute part of the Accredited Official Statistic series.

Previously, in December 2018, we published our Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) historical series: 1988 to 2004 article. This series is also not an Accredited Official Statistic, reflecting the historical uncertainty around the backcasts.

Methodology information

The consumer price indices are normally based on prices collected from outlets around the country, supplemented by information collected centrally over the internet and by phone. The figures in this publication use data collected on or around 12 March 2024.

Our Consumer price indices, a brief guide gives an overview of consumer price statistics, while our Consumer Prices Indices Technical Manual covers the concepts and methodologies underpinning the indices in more detail.

Our CPIH Compendium provides a comprehensive source of information on the CPIH, focusing on the approach to measuring owner occupiers' housing costs.

Our Users and uses of consumer price inflation statistics: July 2018 update includes information on the users and uses of these statistics, and the characteristics of the different measures of inflation in relation to potential use.

We illustrated our approach to Measuring changing prices and costs for consumers and households in March 2018 using three "use cases", along with how they relate to the measures published and under development. We have also published updates, most recently in our Measuring changing prices and costs for consumers and households: December 2023 article.

The three cases refer firstly to the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) as our lead measure of inflation based on economic principles. They also refer to the Household Costs Indices (HCIs) as a set of measures that reflect the change in costs and prices experienced by different households, and the Retail Prices Index (RPI) as a legacy measure that is required to meet existing user needs. Our Shortcomings of the RPI as a measure of inflation article describes the issues with the RPI.