Consumer price inflation, UK: February 2024

• The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) rose by 3.8% in the 12 months to February 2024, down from 4.2% in January.

• On a monthly basis, CPIH rose by 0.6% in February 2024, compared with a rise of 1.0% in February 2023.

• The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.4% in the 12 months to February 2024, down from 4.0% in January.

• On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.6% in February 2024, compared with a rise of 1.1% in February 2023.

• The largest downward contributions to the monthly change in both CPIH and CPI annual rates came from food, and restaurants and cafes, while the largest upward contributions came from housing and household services, and motor fuels.

• Core CPIH (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose by 4.8% in the 12 months to February 2024, down from 5.1% in January; the CPIH goods annual rate slowed from 1.8% to 1.1%, while the CPIH services annual rate eased slightly from 6.1% to 6.0%.

• Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose by 4.5% in the 12 months to February 2024, down from 5.1% in January; the CPI goods annual rate slowed from 1.8% to 1.1%, while the CPI services annual rate eased from 6.5% to 6.1%.

• In line with usual practice at the start of each year, the basket of goods and services, and expenditure weights used in compiling our consumer price inflation statistics have been updated.

• This release is the first publication to include improved data from February 2024 on second-hand cars and private rental prices as part of our programme to transform consumer price statistics.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 3.8% in the 12 months to February 2024, down from 4.2% in January and down from a recent peak of 9.6% in October 2022.

Our indicative modelled consumer price inflation estimates suggest that the October 2022 inflation rate was the highest in over 40 years (the CPIH Accredited Official Statistic series begins in January 2006). The annual rate in February 2024 was the lowest since October 2021 when it was also 3.8%.

The easing in the annual rate between January and February 2024 was a result of prices rising by 0.6% on the month compared with a rise of 1.0% a year earlier.

The owner occupiers' housing costs (OOH) component of CPIH rose by 6.0% in the 12 months to February 2024, up from 5.4% in January. This is the highest annual rate since July 1992 in the constructed historical series. OOH costs rose by 0.9% on the month compared with a 0.3% increase between January and February 2023.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.4% in the 12 months to February 2024, down from 4.0% in January and well below its recent peak of 11.1% in October 2022. Our indicative modelled consumer price inflation estimates suggest that the October 2022 peak was the highest rate in over 40 years (the CPI Accredited Official Statistic series begins in January 1997). The annual rate in February 2024 was the lowest since September 2021, when it was 3.1%.

The easing in the annual rate between January and February 2024 was a result of prices rising by 0.6% on the month compared with a rise of 1.1% a year earlier.

The main drivers of the annual inflation rate for CPIH and CPI are the same where they are common to both measures. However, the OOH component accounts for approximately 16% of the CPIH and is the main driver for differences between the CPIH and CPI inflation rates. This makes CPIH our most comprehensive measure of inflation. We cover this in more detail in Section 4: Latest movements in CPIH inflation and provide a commentary on the CPI in Section 5: Latest movements in CPI inflation. We also cover both CPIH and CPI in Section 3: Notable movements in prices, though the figures reflect CPIH.

The easing in the annual inflation rates reflected downward contributions from nine divisions, partially offset by upward contributions from two. Large downward effects from food and non-alcoholic beverages, and restaurants and hotels were partially offset by a large upward effect from housing and household services.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages

Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 5.0% in the year to February 2024, down from 7.0% in January. The February figure is the lowest annual rate since January 2022. The rate has eased for the eleventh consecutive month from a recent high of 19.2% in March 2023, the highest annual rate seen for over 45 years.

Prices rose by 0.2% between January and February 2024, compared with a monthly rise of 2.1% a year ago. Prices have been relatively high but stable since early summer 2023, rising by less than 2% over the nine months between May 2023 and February 2024. This compares with a sharp rise of around 22% seen over the previous 14 months between March 2022 and May 2023.

The annual rates for most types of food product eased between January and February 2024, with the largest effect coming from bread and cereals. Overall, prices for bread and cereals rose by 0.3% on the month, compared with a rise of 2.3% between January and February 2023. Prices of packs of cakes and some bread products (for example, white sliced loaves) fell between January and February this year but rose a year ago. The resulting annual rate for bread and cereals in February 2024 was 6.0%, the lowest observed since March 2022.

Other smaller downward effects came from classes such as meat, vegetables, and milk, cheese and eggs. Overall, the annual rate eased in 10 of the 11 food and non-alcoholic beverages classes with oils and fats the exception; its annual rate rising from 8.0% in January to 8.3% in February 2024.

Restaurants and hotels

The annual inflation rate for restaurants and hotels was 6.0% in February 2024, down from 7.1% in January, and the lowest rate since February 2022. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 1.0% between January and February 2024, compared with a rise of 2.0% between the same two months a year ago.

The easing in the rate reflected a downward effect from restaurants and cafes, where prices rose by 0.7% on the month, less than the 2.1% rise between January and February 2023. The downward contribution was largely driven by the prices of alcohol, such as gin, whisky and various beers.

The easing in the annual rate for restaurants and cafes was slightly offset by accommodation services, where prices rose by 5.3% in the year to February, up from 4.5% in January. Within this category, the effect was from overnight hotel accommodation, where prices are collected just before the date of the nominal overnight stay. The price can vary depending on the number of available rooms, resulting in month-to-month volatility.

Housing and household services

The overall easing in the inflation rate was partially offset by an upward effect from housing and household services, whose annual rate was 2.9% in February 2024, up from 2.5% in January. This compares with a recent peak of 11.8% observed in January and February 2023.

The 0.4 percentage point increase in the rate between January and February 2024 reflected upward effects from owner occupiers’ housing (OOH) costs and, to a lesser extent, actual rentals for housing, along with electricity, gas and other fuels. OOH costs rose by 6.0% in the year to February 2024, compared with a rise of 5.4% in January.

The annual rate for actual rentals for housing was 6.9% in the year to February 2024, up from 6.5% in January, with the rise between months caused by price increases from privately rented properties. For the first time, we have used our new Price Index of Private Rents (PIPR) as the source of rental prices. This replaces the Index of Private Housing Rental Prices and forms part of our transformation of consumer price statistics – see Section 8: Measuring the data.

Overall prices for electricity, gas and other fuels fell by 18.2% on the year, compared with a fall of 18.4% in January. The rate was slightly smaller as a result of a rise in the price of liquid fuels between January and February this year compared with a fall a year ago.

Transport

Overall prices in the transport division fell by 0.4% in the year to February 2024, compared with a fall of 0.5% in January. The annual rate has been negative for the latest four months.

The small overall change in the annual rate masks larger, partially offsetting movements in some of the more detailed transport categories, with a large upward effect from motor fuels partially offset by smaller downward effects, for example, from second-hand cars, and maintenance and repairs.

The average price of petrol rose by 2.3 pence per litre between January and February 2024 to stand at 142.2 pence per litre, down from 148.0 pence per litre in February 2023. Diesel prices rose by 3.0 pence per litre in February to stand at 151.3 pence per litre, down from 169.5 pence per litre in February 2023. These movements resulted in overall motor fuel prices falling by 6.5% in the year to February 2024, compared with a fall of 9.2% in the year to January.

Second-hand car prices fell by 0.5% between January and February 2024, compared with a rise of 1.1% between the same two months a year ago. On an annual basis, prices fell by 7.3% in the year to February 2024, compared with a fall of 5.9% in January. The annual rate has been negative for seven consecutive months. This month marks the first use of Auto Trader data to improve our coverage of the second-hand car market.

The small downward effect from maintenance and repairs resulted from prices falling by 0.3% on the month this year compared with a rise of 1.4% in 2023. The effect came from prices of roadside recovery services falling this year but rising a year ago.

Figure 5 shows the annual inflation rates for the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) series for all goods and all services, together with CPIH excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco (often referred to as core CPIH). The CPIH inflation rate is added for comparison.

The core CPIH annual inflation rate was 4.8% in February 2024, which was the lowest rate since February 2022. It is down from 5.1% in January 2024 and from a recent high of 6.5% in May 2023, which was the highest rate since November 1991, when it was also 6.5% in the constructed historical series.

The CPIH all goods index rose by 1.1% in the 12 months to February 2024, down from 1.8% in January, and the lowest rate since March 2021. The slowing in the annual rate has been caused principally by downward contributions to the change from food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and non-energy industrial goods. These have been partially offset by an upward contribution from energy, principally liquid fuels, vehicle fuels and lubricants.

The CPIH all services index rose by 6.0% in the 12 months to February 2024, down slightly from 6.1% in January. The largest downward contribution to the change came from catering services where prices rose by 6.3% in the year to February 2024, compared with a rise of 7.8% in the year to January. This was partially offset by an upward contribution from owner occupiers’ housing costs.

Figure 6 shows how each of the main groups of goods and services contributed to the change in the annual CPIH inflation rate between January and February 2024. To understand what has changed the inflation rate between these months, we can look at the differences between the contributions each of the 12 divisions made to the rate in January 2024 and the rate in February 2024. These differences sum to the change in the annual CPIH rate between the latest two months, that is, the easing from 4.2% to 3.8%.

The slowing in the rate into February 2024 reflected downward contributions from nine divisions, partially offset by upward contributions from two divisions. The largest downward contributions came from food and non-alcoholic beverages, and restaurants and hotels. These were partially offset by a large upward contribution from housing and household services.

Figure 7 shows the extent to which the distinct categories of goods and services have contributed to the overall annual CPIH inflation rate over the last two years. The contribution of each category to the annual rate depends on the price movement in that category as well as its weight, which is updated annually. Contributions help to explain what is driving the inflation rate by expressing it as the additive sum of its parts. For any one month, when added together, the contributions from the 12 divisions sum to the overall CPIH inflation rate, for example, 3.8% in February 2024.

The largest upward contributions to the annual CPIH inflation rate in February 2024 came from housing and household services, and restaurants and hotels. The contribution from the former group rose from 0.75 percentage points in January 2024 to 0.87 percentage points in February, while the contribution from restaurants and hotels eased to 0.68 percentage points, the lowest since May 2022.

The contribution from food and non-alcoholic beverages eased for the eleventh consecutive month, from a recent high of 1.76 percentage points in March 2023 to 0.48 percentage points in February 2024. This was the lowest contribution from this division since February 2022.

Transport provided the only negative contribution (of 0.05 percentage points) to the annual CPIH inflation rate, while the contribution from furniture and household goods (of 0.01 percentage points) was the lowest since December 2020.

Figure 8 shows the contribution of owner occupiers’ housing (OOH) costs and Council Tax to the annual CPIH inflation rate in the context of wider housing-related costs. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) differs from the CPIH in that it does not include these two components.

OOH’s contribution rose from 0.86 to 0.95 percentage points between January and February 2024. This is the largest contribution since at least January 2006.

While the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) is our lead and most comprehensive measure of consumer price inflation, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) is based on a harmonised methodology developed by Eurostat and allows for international comparisons to be drawn. For more information on the use cases for our consumer price inflation statistics, please refer to our Measuring changing prices and costs for consumers and households: December 2023 article.

Figure 9 shows CPI inflation for the UK against the EU and Group of Seven (G7) countries that produce a comparable measure.

Figure 10 shows the annual inflation rates for the CPI all goods and all services series, together with CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco (often referred to as core CPI). The headline CPI inflation rate is added for comparison.

Core CPI rose by 4.5% in the year to February 2024, down from 5.1% in January and below its recent high of 7.1% in May 2023, which was the highest recorded since 7.2% in March 1992 in the constructed historical series. The CPI all goods index rose by 1.1% in the year to February 2024, down from 1.8% in January. The CPI all services index rose by 6.1% in the year to February 2024, down from 6.5% in January and down from 7.4% in July 2023, which was the joint highest rate (with May 2023) since March 1992.

As with the all-items annual inflation rates, the drivers of CPIH and CPI goods and services inflation are the same (with the exception of owner occupiers’ housing costs and Council Tax, which are excluded from CPI). The drivers are discussed in more detail in Section 4: Latest movements in CPIH inflation.

Figure 11 shows how each of the main groups of goods and services contributed to the change in the annual CPI inflation rate between January and February 2024.

The slowing in the rate into February 2024 was driven by downward contributions from nine divisions, partially offset by upward contributions from two divisions. The largest downward contributions came from food and non-alcoholic beverages, and restaurants and hotels.

Although the sizes of the contributions differ from CPIH, the main drivers to the change are the same where they are common to both measures.

Figure 12 shows the extent to which the distinct categories of goods and services have contributed to the overall annual CPI inflation rate over the last two years.

The CPIH includes extra housing components not included in the CPI. This can result in the largest contributions to the annual CPI and CPIH inflation rates coming from different divisions such as in February 2024, when the largest-contributing divisions to the CPI rate were restaurants and hotels (with a contribution of 0.83 percentage points) and recreation and culture (with a contribution of 0.74 percentage points).

Annual inflation rate

The most common approach to measuring inflation is the 12-month or annual inflation rate, which compares prices for the latest month with the same month a year ago. In any given month, the annual rate is determined by the balance between upward and downward price movements of the range of goods and services included in the index.

Consumer price inflation

Consumer price inflation is the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall. It is estimated by using price indices. For an overview of the range of indices available and their uses, please see our Consumer price indices, a brief guide: 2017 and our Measuring changing prices and costs for consumers and households: December 2023 article.

Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH)

The CPIH is the most comprehensive measure of inflation. It extends the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) to include a measure of the costs associated with owning, maintaining and living in one's own home, known as owner occupiers' housing costs (OOH), along with Council Tax. Both are significant expenses for many households and are not included in the CPI.

Consumer Prices Index

The CPI is a measure of consumer price inflation produced to international standards and is based on European regulations for the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. The CPI is the inflation measure used in the government's target for inflation.

The CPI is produced at the same level of detail as the CPIH in our accompanying dataset and accompanying data time series.

Retail Prices Index (RPI)

The RPI does not meet the required standard for designation as an Accredited Official Statistic. In recognition that it continues to be widely used in contracts, we continue to publish the RPI, its subcomponents and RPI excluding mortgage interest payments (RPIX). To view the all-items RPI, please see the data time series section of the inflation and price indices area of our website. The annual RPI inflation rate was 4.5% in February 2024.

The UK Statistics Authority and HM Treasury launched a consultation in 2020 on the authority's proposal to address the shortcomings of the RPI. From 2030 (at the earliest), as outlined in the UK Statistics Authority response to the consultation, the CPIH methods and data sources will be introduced into the RPI. Additionally, the supplementary and lower-level indices of the RPI will be discontinued.

Alternative data sources for second-hand cars and private rental prices

We have updated our published impact analysis on the transformation of consumer price statistics for private rents and second-hand cars. The new data and methods have been included in CPIH, CPI and RPI from publication of the February 2024 indices on 20 March 2024. The historical consumer price indices have not been revised to reflect the new indices, which will be used to measure price change from February 2024. These new indices have been linked to the previous indices using the same approach we take to introduce new or replacement items during the annual basket update, which ensures no step change. While the headline impact of second-hand cars and private rental prices on CPIH, CPI and RPI is small, these new data and methods enable us to produce more granular statistics offering important insights into the components driving inflation in the UK.

Changes to the RPI follow the annual governance process in line with section 21 of the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007, details of which can be seen on our Correspondence on proposed changes to the Retail Prices Index (RPI) page.

The technology and processes we have developed lay the foundation for our future transformation work. More information about the project and our ongoing transformation plans can be found in our Transformation of consumer price statistics article, which we will update this spring with amended timelines.

As usual, we welcome your feedback on our work by email to cpi@ons.gov.uk.

Weights for 2024 consumer price inflation statistics

In line with usual practice at the start of each year, the expenditure weights used in compiling the consumer price inflation statistics have been updated. For the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) and the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), they have been calculated using national accounts household final consumption expenditure (HHFCE) data for 2022. This is in line with our standard methodology of using data lagged by two years.

It differs from the approach used over the last few years when there were large changes seen in spending patterns as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Over these years, we adjusted the spending data so that the resulting weights were more reflective of the year immediately before use in consumer price inflation. More information on weights updating is available in our Consumer price inflation, updating weights articles.

The weights for the Retail Prices Index (RPI) have also been updated for 2024 in line with the practice followed both before and during the coronavirus period, with no additional adjustment to the spending data because of any coronavirus effects.

The weights used to produce the CPI and CPIH have historically been rounded to integers as parts per thousand of the all items indices. From 2024, we are now using unrounded weights in compiling the indices. The RPI weights continue to be based on integer weights.

Households and the cost of living

To assist individuals in understanding how the rise in inflation affects their expenditure, we have produced a personal inflation calculator. The calculator allows users to enter the amount they spend across either a reduced or a wide range of categories, to produce an estimate of their personal inflation based on those spending patterns.

Our shopping prices comparison tool shows how the average prices of items have changed over time. As a result, the number of average price series in Table 55 in our Consumer price inflation dataset has been reduced to two, covering petrol and diesel, and Table 54 has been discontinued. The average price data originally presented in these tables are currently still available as time series on our website and can be found using the four-character identifiers in Table 55.

Update on the Household Costs Indices

On 26 February 2024, we published our Household Costs Indices (HCIs) for UK household groups. These are official statistics in development and this release included new estimates for October to December 2023. The HCIs reflect how different types of households experience changing prices and differ from CPIH and CPI, which are based on recognised economic principles and which provide an aggregate measure of inflation for household spending in the UK.

Consumer price inflation historical estimates, UK, 1950 to 1988

On 18 May 2022, we published our Consumer price inflation, historical estimates, UK, 1950 to 1988 - methodology and Consumer price inflation, historical estimates and recent trends, UK: 1950 to 2022 article. These include new estimates of CPIH and improved estimates of CPI for the period 1950 to 1988. These estimates (published in response to user need for a longer series) are indicative and are for analytical purposes only. They are not intended for official use and do not constitute part of the Accredited Official Statistic series.

Previously, in December 2018, we published our Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) historical series: 1988 to 2004 article. This series is also not an Accredited Official Statistic, reflecting the historical uncertainty around the backcasts.

Pre-release access

The Bank of England was granted exceptional pre-release access to an estimate of consumer price inflation data at 8.30am on Monday 18 March 2024 so that the data were available for the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on that day. The letters requesting and agreeing to pre-release are available in the Exchange of letters between the Bank of England and the Office for National Statistics for exceptional pre-release access to the Consumer Prices Index and Labour Market Statistics.

Methodology information

The consumer price indices are normally based on prices collected from outlets around the country, supplemented by information collected centrally over the internet and by phone. The figures in this publication use data collected on or around 13 February 2024.

Our Consumer price indices, a brief guide gives an overview of consumer price statistics, while our Consumer Prices Indices Technical Manual covers the concepts and methodologies underpinning the indices in more detail.

Our CPIH Compendium provides a comprehensive source of information on the CPIH, focusing on the approach to measuring owner occupiers' housing costs.

Our Users and uses of consumer price inflation statistics: July 2018 update includes information on the users and uses of these statistics, and the characteristics of the different measures of inflation in relation to potential use.

We illustrated our approach to Measuring changing prices and costs for consumers and households in March 2018 using three "use cases", along with how they relate to the measures published and under development. We have also published updates, most recently in our Measuring changing prices and costs for consumers and households: December 2023 article.

The three cases refer firstly to the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) as our lead measure of inflation based on economic principles. They also refer to the Household Costs Indices (HCIs) as a set of measures that reflect the change in costs and prices experienced by different households, and the Retail Prices Index (RPI) as a legacy measure that is required to meet existing user needs. Our Shortcomings of the RPI as a measure of inflation article describes the issues with the RPI.