Gross Domestic Product Preliminary Estimate: Q1 2015

• Change in gross domestic product (GDP) is the main indicator of economic growth. GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015 compared with growth of 0.6% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014.

• Output increased in services by 0.5% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015. The other 3 main industrial groupings within the economy decreased, with construction falling by 1.6%, production by 0.1% and agriculture by 0.2%.

• GDP was 2.4% higher in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015 compared with the same quarter a year ago.

• In Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015, GDP was estimated to have been 4.0% higher than the pre-economic downturn peak of Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008. From the peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 to the trough in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2009, the economy shrank by 6.0%.

• The preliminary estimate of GDP is produced using the output approach to measuring GDP. At this stage, data content is less than half of the total required for the final output estimate. The estimate is subject to revision as more data become available, but these revisions are typically small between the preliminary and third estimates of GDP.

• All figures in this release are seasonally adjusted.

About the preliminary estimate of GDP

Change in GDP is the main indicator of economic growth. The preliminary estimate of GDP is based solely on the output approach to measuring GDP and uses the same data that feed into the Index of Services, Index of Production and Output in the Construction Industry datasets. The growth estimates within this release are created from short-term measures of output and should be considered alongside medium and long-term patterns in the series to give a more comprehensive picture of the main movements (further information on longer-term patterns of GDP, including a comparison with other countries, can be found in the Economic context section).

The output approach measures gross value added (GVA) at a detailed industry level before aggregating to produce an estimate for the whole economy. GDP (as measured by the output approach) can then be calculated by adding taxes and subtracting subsidies (both only available at whole economy level) to this estimate of total GVA. However, as there is no information available on taxes and subsidies at this stage, the quarterly growth for output GVA is taken as a proxy for GDP growth (more information on creating the preliminary estimate of GDP is available on the Methods and sources page of our website).

In the second estimate of GDP and the quarterly national accounts, the output GVA and GDP estimates are balanced with the equivalent income and expenditure approaches to produce headline estimates of GVA and GDP. Further information on all 3 approaches to measuring GDP can be found in the Short guide to national accounts (136.8 Kb Pdf).

All data in this bulletin are seasonally adjusted estimates and have had the effect of price changes removed (in other words, the data are deflated). Further information on some of the main concepts (including seasonal adjustment and deflation) underlying the estimates can be found in background note 8.

The quality of the estimate of GDP

The preliminary estimate of GDP is produced around 25 days after the end of the quarter to provide a timely estimate of GDP and at this stage the data content of this estimate is around 44% of the total required for the final output-based estimate. The methods for producing the preliminary GDP estimate use monthly data for the first 2 months in the quarter (January and February) and forecasts for estimating the third month (March) which incorporate early survey responses where available. More information about the data content for this release can be found in the Assumptions made for March 2015 section and the background notes. Revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy. The estimate is subject to revisions as more data become available, but between the preliminary and third estimates of GDP, revisions are typically small (around 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points), with the frequency of upward and downward revisions broadly equal.

All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical uncertainty and for many well-established statistics we measure and publish the sampling error associated with the estimate, using this as an indicator of accuracy. The estimate of GDP, however, is currently constructed from a wide variety of data sources, some of which are not based on random samples and as such it is very difficult to measure the sampling error. While development work continues in this area, like all other G7 national statistical institutes, we do not publish a measure of the sampling error associated with GDP (more information on the quality of the output approach to measuring GDP can be found on the Methods and sources page on our website). It should be noted that we are continually working on methodological changes to improve the accuracy of the output approach to measuring GDP (more information can be found on the Improvements web page). As part of the GDP Continuous Improvement Programme, articles are regularly published on the statistical continuous improvement page, which provide detailed updates of the work carried out so far.

Users should note that the deflators used in the production of chained volume estimates of output in the construction industry have been created using a statistical model of the Quarter 3 (Jul to Sep) 2014 tender price indices (TPIs) and output price indices (OPIs). This is the second quarter where these deflators have been created using this statistical model. Caution should therefore be taken when interpreting the construction estimates. More information on these statistical models can be found in the updated article Modelling construction statistics deflators. Construction has a weight of 6.4% in the output approach to measuring GDP. So arithmetically, therefore, a change of 1.6% to estimated construction output would lead to a change in construction's contribution to GDP growth of 0.1 percentage points.

The preliminary estimate of GDP focuses on the growth in output between 2 consecutive quarters (in this release Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015). GDP increased by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2015.

The contribution an industry grouping makes to GDP quarterly growth is dependent on the change in that industry grouping and its weight within the output approach to measuring GDP. The current 2011 based weights are: services 78.4%; production 14.6%; construction 6.4%; and agriculture 0.6%.

Services increased by 0.5%, contributing 0.41 percentage points to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015 GDP growth (as seen in Figure 1). This followed an increase of 0.9% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014. In the latest quarter there were increases in all 4 of the main services aggregates (distribution, hotels and restaurants; transport, storage and communication; business services and finance; government and other services). Growth in business services and finance slowed from 1.3% growth in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014 to 0.1% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015. This was the main reason behind the reduction in services growth between the 2 quarters.

In January 2015, business services and finance fell by 0.6%, compared with December 2014, with widespread falls across the aggregate. This followed a rise of 0.6% in December 2014, compared with November 2014. Output in business services and finance was 3.4% higher in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015 compared with Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014. In Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015, output from services was 8.5% above its pre-economic downturn peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008.

There was a downward contribution (0.01 percentage points) from the production industries; these industries fell by 0.1%, with mining and quarrying decreasing by 2.1% following an increase of 0.8% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014 and water and waste management decreasing by 0.5% following a rise of 1.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014. Partially offsetting these decreases was a rise of 2.5% in energy supply following a decrease of 2.6% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014 and a rise of 0.1% in manufacturing following an increase of 0.2% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014.

Construction output decreased by 1.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015 when compared with Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014, contributing -0.10 percentage points to GDP growth and follows a fall of 2.2% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014. The monthly data published in the Output in the Construction Industry - February 2015 release showed falls in both new work, and repair and maintenance in January 2015 and February 2015 when compared with the previous months.

As seen in Figure 2, GDP in the UK grew steadily during the 2000s until a financial market shock affected UK and global economic growth in 2008 and 2009. Economic growth resumed towards the end of 2009, but generally at a slower rate than the period prior to 2008 (Figure 2). This growth was also erratic, with several quarters between 2010 and 2012 recording stagnant or declining GDP. This 2-year period coincided with special events (for example. severe winter weather in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2010 and the Diamond Jubilee in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2012) that are likely to have affected growth. Since 2013, GDP has grown steadily, passing its pre-downturn peak in Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2013.

Figure 3 shows the industry breakdown of GDP from 2002. Up until the downturn, services in the UK grew steadily, while production output was broadly flat over the same period. Construction activity grew strongly between 2002 and 2004 and although there was a temporary decline in the mid-2000s, this was reversed by the end of 2007.

GDP and all of its components are referenced to 2011, making the average index in 2011 equal to 100. It is for this reason that Figure 3 shows all components converging in 2011.

Industries have shown differing trends following the recent economic downturn. This is illustrated in Figure 4, which shows the path of GDP and its components (excluding agriculture, but including manufacturing which is a sub-component of production), relative to their level in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008. The construction and production industries were more acutely affected by the deterioration in economic conditions. Following the downturn, the services industries generally grew steadily, albeit slowly, with output exceeding its pre-downturn peak in Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2011.

Production and construction activity began to grow in 2010 - with manufacturing showing particular strength – but neither industry sustained this growth. Production output fell in both 2011 and 2012 to below levels seen at the height of the downturn in 2009. Construction output sharply decreased in 2012, and was close to its 2009 trough after further contraction in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2013. Construction output in 2014 as a whole was 7.4% higher than 2013, however, decreases in the last 2 quarters has meant the level of output has dropped below the Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014 level. Although there has generally been growth across all major components of GDP since the start of 2013, the service industries remain the largest and steadiest contributor to economic growth (Table 1) and the only component of GDP where output has exceeded its pre-downturn peak.

Our preliminary estimate of GDP is one of the earliest GDP releases to be published internationally. As a result, comprehensive cross-country GDP comparisons cannot yet be made for Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015.

However, GDP data are widely available for most major economies up to the fourth quarter of 2014 and a comparison of this information is shown in Figure 5. Each country has been indexed to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 so that a comparison of recoveries since the global downturn can be made between countries. Cross-country GDP data are publicly available from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The level of GDP in the UK took until Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2013 to surpass its pre-downturn peak. Figure 5 indicates that the UK recovery took longer than some other countries in the G7. This is in part due to the nature of the downturn in the UK; GDP fell to a greater extent and as a result has taken longer to recover.

European economies have continued to struggle since the euro area sovereign debt crisis in 2011, with Italy particularly affected. In Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014, GDP growth in France was positive at 0.1% following 0.3% growth in the previous quarter and 2 consecutive quarters of declines in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, GDP in Germany increased by 0.7% on the quarter, while Italy showed flat growth and continued to decline compared to the same quarter of the previous year. GDP in Italy still remained 9.6% below the level observed in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008.

GDP in Japan returned to positive growth of 0.4% after falling by 1.6% and 0.7% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2014 and Quarter 3 (Jul to Sep) 2014 respectively. This is likely to reflect the previously announced increase in consumption tax which came into effect in April 2014, which encouraged consumers to make major purchases before the increase (Quarter 1 (Jan to March) 2014 growth was positive at 1.3%). Consumer spending increased by 0.5% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014, after falling 5.0% between Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014 and Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2014. The UK’s preliminary estimate of GDP is one of the earliest GDP releases to be published internationally.

Agriculture

Agriculture output decreased by 0.2% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015, following an increase of 0.4% in the previous quarter. Between Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015, agriculture output increased by 0.9%.

Production

The index of production decreased by 0.1% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015, following an increase of 0.2% in the previous quarter. Mining and quarrying contributed the most to the decrease, contracting by 2.1%. Between Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015, production output increased by 0.5%.

Construction

Construction output decreased by 1.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015, following a decrease of 2.2% in the previous quarter. Between Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015, construction output decreased by 0.8% (see note on construction prices in Understanding the preliminary estimate of GDP section).

Distribution, hotels and restaurants

The index for distribution, hotels and restaurants increased by 1.2% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015, following an increase of 1.4% in the previous quarter. Retail made the largest positive contribution to the increase. Between Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015, distribution, hotels and restaurants output increased by 4.7%.

Transport, storage and communication

The index for transport, storage and communication increased by 1.1% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015, following an increase of 0.9% in the previous quarter. Computer programming, consultancy and related activities made the largest contribution to the increase. Between Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015, transport, storage and communication output increased by 5.0%.

Business services and finance

The index for business services and finance increased by 0.1% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015, following an increase of 1.3% in the previous quarter. Rental and leasing activities made the largest positive contribution to the increase. There were partially offsetting downward contributions from a number of industries including financial services and architectural and engineering services. Between Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015, business services and finance output increased by 3.4%.

Government and other services

The index for government and other services increased by 0.3% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015, following no growth in the previous quarter. Human health activities made the largest positive contribution to the increase. Between Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015, government and other services output increased by 0.8%.

Background

The methods for producing the preliminary GDP estimate use monthly data for the first 2 months in the quarter and forecasts for estimating the third month. The forecasts are reinforced by early responses to our monthly business survey (MBS), but the monthly response rate is generally lower at this stage (typically between 30 and 50% at this point in time).

Each of the first 2 months includes monthly data from the MBS of 44,000 businesses, covering the production, manufacturing, services, retail and construction industries.

The forecasts for March 2015 use our standard method of fitting an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with adjustments made for Easter, trading days and outliers. The forecasts are calculated for each individual industry level series (for example, food and beverage services). More information on creating the preliminary estimate of GDP is available on the Methods and Sources page.

Purpose of this section

This section provides details of the assumptions made for March 2015 for each of the main components of the output approach to measuring GDP: services, production and construction.

It was estimated that there was a 0.3% rise in the output of the services industries between February and March 2015.

At the more detailed level, it was estimated that distribution, hotels and restaurants rose by 0.4%, transport, storage and communication rose by 0.4%, business services and finance rose by 0.3%, and government and other services rose by 0.2%.

The services data for January and February 2015 used in the calculation of the Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015 GDP preliminary estimate are consistent with the data contained in the February 2015 Index of Services release published on 28 April 2015.

It was estimated that output of the production industries between February and March 2015 are flat.

At the more detailed level, it was estimated that manufacturing increased by 0.3%. Offsetting this rise was a fall in mining and quarrying of 0.8% and falls of 1.1% in both energy supply and water and waste management.

Small revisions (following revised seasonal factors allowing for the addition of March 2015 data) to the January and February 2015 estimates, published in the latest Index of Production (IoP) release on 10 April 2015, have been used in the calculation of the Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015 GDP preliminary estimate. To retain coherence between the published monthly and quarterly indices for Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015, small adjustments have been made to the monthly growth rates for March 2015 for total production, mining and quarrying, energy supply and water and waste management. This ensures that if the monthly growth rates for March are applied to the published February 2015 indices for total production and the main components (and then an average taken of the January, February and March 2015 indices), the results are consistent with the published quarterly indices.

Monthly data for the construction industries are only available from January 2010.

The forecast for construction is calculated slightly differently to production and services due to the shorter time span of monthly turnover data. More weight is placed on early responses to the monthly business survey for March 2015. Responses from businesses were the starting point to inform the forecasts; this was then adjusted (using information collected in previous months) in recognition that these early responses from businesses tend to be lower than later responses. This approach led to an estimated 1.6% fall between Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015.

Some revisions (due to receipt of additional survey data and revised seasonal factors allowing for the addition of March data) to the January and February 2015 estimates, published in the latest Output in the Construction Industry - February 2015 release published on 10 April 2015, have been used in the calculation of the Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015 GDP preliminary estimate. To retain coherence between the published monthly and quarterly indices for Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015, adjustments have been made, in line with our normal practice, to the monthly growth rates for March 2015 for construction output. This ensures that if the monthly growth rates for March are applied to the published February 2015 indices for construction output (and then an average taken of the January, February and March 2015 indices), the results are consistent with the published quarterly indices.