GDP monthly estimate, UK : June 2022

• Gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.6% in June 2022, after growth of 0.4% in May 2022 (revised down from 0.5%), and was up 1.9% in the 12 months to June 2022.

• The Platinum Jubilee, and the move of the May bank holiday, led to an additional working day in May 2022 and two fewer working days in June 2022. This should be considered when interpreting the seasonally adjusted movements involving May and June 2022.

• Services fell by 0.5% in June 2022, and was the main driver of the fall in GDP. A decline in human health activities was the largest contributor as test and trace activity reduced further and vaccinations continued to tail off, following the spring booster campaign.

• Production fell by 0.9% in June 2022, following an increase of 1.3% in May. This was mainly because of a fall of 1.6% in manufacturing following strong growth in May 2022.

• Construction also fell by 1.4% in June 2022, following seven consecutive months of growth.

• Output in consumer-facing services remained flat in June 2022, following a fall of 0.3% in May. Consumer-facing services were 4.9% below their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) levels (February 2020) in June 2022, while all other services were 2.7% above.

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.6% in June 2022 (Figure 1) following growth of 0.4% in May 2022 (revised down from 0.5% growth).

It is important to note that the Platinum Jubilee, and the move of the May bank holiday, led to an additional working day in May 2022 and two fewer working days in June 2022. Therefore, this should be considered when interpreting the seasonally adjusted movements involving May and June 2022. More information on our treatment of the Jubilee is available in the Measuring the data section.

Monthly GDP is now estimated to be 0.9% above its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) levels (February 2020).

This release includes revisions to the monthly data back to April 2022, consistent with our GDP first quarterly estimate bulletin on the same day. More information is available in the Revisions to monthly GDP section.

All main sectors contributed negatively to the monthly GDP estimate in June 2022 (Figure 2). The services sector fell by 0.5% and was the main contributor to the fall in GDP. Production and construction also fell in June, with declines of 0.9% and 1.4%, respectively.

GDP fell by 0.1% in the three months to June 2022 driven largely by a 0.4% fall in services.  More detail on the quarterly path can be found in our GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: April to June 2022 bulletin.

Monthly GDP grew 1.9% in the 12 months to June 2022, down from 3.3% in the year to May 2022.

Services fell by 0.5% in June 2022 following growth of 0.2% in May 2022 (revised down from growth of 0.4%). Figure 3 shows the contributions from the services sector to gross domestic product in May and June 2022.

Human health and social work activities fell by 1.8% in June 2022 and was the largest contributor to June's fall in services (Figure 3). The driver of this fall was human health activities, which fell by 2.9% as Test and Trace activity declined further and COVID-19 vaccination volumes continued to tail off following the spring booster campaign. There were also downward contributions in this sub-sector from GP appointments.

A full record of the volume estimates of Test and Trace and vaccination programmes along with their contribution to GDP growth can be found in our accompanying dataset on health volume adjustments and contribution to GDP growth.

Administration and support service activities fell by 2.1% in June 2022, following growth of 1.3% in May. This sub-sector saw falls in five out of the six industries, with travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities falling by 6.2% following strong growth in April and May 2022.

Figure 3 also shows that wholesale trade and retail trade services have now fallen for two consecutive months. In June 2022, all three industries within this sub-sector fell, with the largest contribution from wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles falling by 3.0%. Elsewhere, wholesale trade fell by 0.9% in June, following a 1.6% fall in May, and retail trade fell by 0.1% in June 2022, following a fall of 0.8% in May.

The largest positive contributor to services in June 2022 was accommodation and food service activities (up 2.1%). Food and beverage service activities (up 3.0%) was the main driver of this growth, largely reflecting a rise in mobile food stands and takeaway food shops. Estimates from OpenTable also showed a 23.0% increase in seated diners coinciding with the week containing the Jubilee bank holidays. More information is available in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 9 June 2022 bulletin.

Elsewhere in services, arts, entertainment and recreation activities grew by 2.7% in June as festival and events attendance rose.

NHS Test and Trace services and vaccine programmes

NHS Test and Trace and COVID-19 vaccination programme activity decreased by 33.0% in June 2022, driven by falls in both Test and Trace and vaccine activity. Test and Trace volumes in June fell by 17.0% compared with May 2022 and came from strong falls in lateral flow devices and lab-based (PCR) testing. Vaccine volumes fell by 53.0%, as the spring booster programmed for at-risk groups began to tail off. Overall, the falls in NHS Test and Trace and the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination programme detracted 0.1% from monthly GDP.

A full record of the volume estimates of Test and Trace and vaccination programmes, along with their contribution to GDP growth, can be found in our accompanying dataset.

Consumer-facing services

Output in consumer-facing services remained flat in June 2022, following a fall of 0.3% in May. Consumer-facing services were 4.9% below their pre-coronavirus levels (February 2020) in June 2022, while all other services were 2.7% above (Figure 4).

The largest positive contributor in consumer facing services was food and beverage service activities, which grew by 3.0% in June 2022. Other personal service activities also contributed positively to consumer facing services, growing by 2.0%.

This was offset by falls in wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, and travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities, which fell by 3.0% and 6.2%, respectively.

Overall, services fell by 0.4% in the three months to June 2022, with negative growth seen in 6 of the 14 services sectors offset by positive contributions in the other eight services sectors.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: June 2022 bulletin.

Production output fell by 0.9% in June 2022, driven by a contraction of 1.6% in manufacturing, with widespread falls in 10 of the 13 manufacturing sub-sectors (Figure 5).

The manufacturing of rubber and plastics products, and other non-metallic mineral products, fell by 6.2% and had the biggest negative impact of manufacturing growth. This mainly resulted from a 6.1% fall in manufacturing of rubber and plastic products. There is some anecdotal evidence from the Monthly Business Survey that higher prices of energy and materials may be starting to affect the industry. More generally, looking ahead to August 2022, evidence from our Business insights bulletin found that of businesses not permanently stopped trading, 26.0% reported input price inflation as their main concern for August 2022, and 20.0% reported energy prices as a concern.

There were also falls in the manufacturing of basic metals and metal products (down 3.1%), and manufacturing of chemicals and chemical products (down 5.5%). The manufacturing of wood and paper products, and printing (down 3.8%) fell in June after a strong May.

Manufacturing of food products, beverages and tobacco was down 1.5%. The manufacturing of alcoholic beverages was down 6.1%, following strong growth in previous months.

Elsewhere, the manufacturing of vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers has seen four consecutive monthly increases, suggesting supply side shortages are beginning to ease. However, production is still well below its previous peak from December 2021. Anecdotal evidence from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) showed that car production in the first six months of 2022 was the weakest first half since the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and worse than 2009 when the global financial crisis affected demand. This can be attributed to ongoing shortages of key components.

Elsewhere within production, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply increased by 3.1% in June 2022 (Figure 6), driven by growth of 5.3% in electric power generation, transmission and distribution. According to anecdotal evidence from the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), demand for electricity was increased because of the absence of COVID-19 restrictions that were in place last year.

Mining and quarrying fell by 1.8%. This was owing to a decrease of 8.8% in other mining and quarrying and a decrease of 0.8% in the extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas.

Water supply and sewerage grew by 0.5% on the month, driven by sewerage, which increased by 1.6%.

Overall, production increased by 0.5% in the three months to June 2022, resulting from growth in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (up 2.7%), and water supply and sewerage (up 2.9%). Manufacturing output was broadly flat in the three months to June 2022, as falls in the manufacturing of chemicals and chemical products and the manufacturing of machinery and equipment was nearly all offset by an increase in the manufacturing of transport equipment.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: June 2022 bulletin.

Construction output decreased 1.4% in June 2022. This follows an upwardly revised 1.8% increase in May 2022. This is the first decrease in monthly construction output since October 2021 (0.9% fall) after seven consecutive months of growth.

The decrease in monthly construction output in June 2022 came mainly from new work (2.0%), with a smaller fall in repair and maintenance (0.2%). At the sector level, five of the nine sectors saw a decrease on the month in June 2022, with private new housing (6.1%) and private commercial new work (4.5%) being the main contributors to the fall.

As in previous months, high prices for certain construction products, most notably concrete, plaster, bricks and asphalt-related products, continue to be an issue in the industry. The annual rate of all construction work price growth was 9.6% in June 2022, a record high since the Construction Output Price Indices series began in January 2014.

Despite these record prices, demand for work persists. Figure 7 shows the demand in value terms was 18.3% above pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic (February 2020) levels. In volume terms, it was only 2.9% above, after removing the impact of price changes in June 2022.

Further detail on construction output growth rates, along with new orders in the construction industry and construction output prices, can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: June 2022, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, April to June 2022 bulletin.

There were some common themes that were anecdotally reported (as part of the Monthly Business Survey) to have played a part in performance across different industries. However, it is often difficult to quantify these effects.

Some businesses reported a drop in turnover because of the Platinum Jubilee, and the move of the May bank holiday. However, because there were two fewer working days in June 2022, activities relating to culture and leisure appeared to benefit, with some historic sites and zoos reporting a rise in turnover and an uptick in visitors.

Many businesses reported shortages relating to the inputs in their production process, with semiconductors being cited most frequently. The industries experiencing difficulties with the semiconductor shortage include the wholesale of boilers, electronic and telecommunications equipment and parts, wifi hardware, photocopiers, and printers. Issues were also reported in the manufacturing of video game consoles and wireless telecommunications services.

Other businesses reported staff shortages as an issue, with problems being reported in recruitment for roles relating to driving heavy goods vehicles and buses, audiovisual and lighting services, car repairs, warehousing, security-related services, bars, physiotherapy, the manufacturing of timber products, the wholesale of meat, and the wholesale of coffee.

This release gives data for June 2022 for the first time and incorporates revisions to the monthly data in April and May 2022, in line with our GDP first quarterly estimate bulletin release on 12 August 2022.

Contribution to growth

Contribution to growth indicates how many percentage points a sector or industry is adding or removing from a given growth rate, usually headline gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Gross domestic product (GDP)

A measure of the economic activity produced by a country or region. GDP growth is the main indicator of economic performance. There are three approaches used to measure GDP:

• the output approach 

• the expenditure approach 

• the income approach  

Index numbers

Data relative to a given base value, which typically refers to a year.

Rolling three-month growth

Rolling three-month growth takes the average level of three consecutive months (for example, April, May and June), and compares it with the average level of the previous three months (for example, January, February and March). The rolling three-month growth rate is often used alongside the monthly growth rate, as the latter can be more volatile.

For further definitions, please visit the Glossary of economic terms.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

• Construction output in Great Britain: June 2022

• Index of Production, UK: June 2022

• Index of Services, UK: June 2022

There have been large movements in UK gross domestic product (GDP) over the course of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. This is primarily in response to public health restrictions and voluntary social distancing that have been in place over this period. Given the size of these effects, there has been a focus on where the economy is relative to its pre-pandemic levels.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. However, there are reasons as to why these would not provide the same estimate as to where the economy is relative to its pre-pandemic levels. This primarily reflects that monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

However, the coronavirus pandemic has brought many measurement challenges that have created more uncertainty around our three approaches. This has led to an initial divergence between the output and average estimate, which is then reflected in how we compare monthly and quarterly estimates of GDP. Further information is available in our Measuring monthly and quarterly UK gross domestic product during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Within the monthly GDP publication, government data are sourced on a quarterly basis; a monthly forecast is used to estimate data for the monthly round until quarterly data are available. While this is a standard practice with many of our data sources, pre-empting the behaviour of a series during a pandemic, in particular for health and education, comes with more uncertainty than usual. Therefore, caution is advised when looking at the monthly estimates beyond the latest published quarter.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is aware of reclassifications or relocations of companies that may affect these published estimates of GDP and associated breakdowns. It is monitoring the data and will seek to implement any resulting changes into the national accounts as soon as possible.

Changes to timing of bank holidays in May and June 2022

As part of the celebrations for the Queen's Platinum Jubilee, there were one-off changes to bank holidays in May and June 2022. It is important to note that the Platinum Jubilee and the move of the May bank holiday led to an additional working day in May 2022 and two fewer working days in June 2022 in the seasonally adjusted series. Therefore, this should be considered when interpreting the movements involving May and June 2022. Previous experience in 2002 and 2012 highlighted that the Jubilee and the timing of one-off bank holidays might lead to more volatile movements in the monthly path of GDP in May and June.

As part of our usual seasonal adjustment practice, prior adjustments are made for calendar effects (where statistically significant), such as returns that do not comply with the standard trading period, regular bank holidays, and Easter. Adjustments for repeating and predictable effects are estimated and removed from the final seasonally adjusted series, for example a permanent change in the seasonal pattern. Adjustments for effects that do not repeat are estimated and removed during the seasonal adjustment process, but are then put back into the final seasonally adjusted series, for example the effect of extreme weather or one-off quantifiable events.

The Jubilee bank holiday event is not regular, so there is not an explicit adjustment to account for it as part of the seasonal adjustment process. However, indirectly, the timing of the Jubilee bank holiday will affect the number of trading days in the period where it falls. There is likely to be some impact on our GDP estimates (positive or negative depending on the sector) in May and June 2022 because of the movement of the May bank holiday and additional Jubilee holiday. This is an ad hoc effect, so it does not get removed from our GDP seasonally adjusted estimates.

In our figures, we reviewed all the trading day patterns of all industries, considering the timing of the Jubilee bank holiday, ensuring the genuine activity from the bank holiday was reflected in our published GDP seasonally adjusted estimates. We will continue to review our seasonal adjustment parameters on a regular basis.

Users are therefore likely to find an effect related to an additional working day in May in the seasonally adjusted series. There will also be an effect associated with two fewer working days in June 2022. Caution should be taken when interpreting the seasonally adjusted movements involving May and June 2022.

While the same approach is applied for 2022 as previous Jubilees, it is important to note when comparing data in 2022 with previous Jubilees in 2002 and 2012, there are a different number of working days that should also be considered (Table 3).

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

The latest comparisons of month on same month a year ago should be treated with caution given the impact of base effects on growth rates because of the economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic throughout 2020 and 2021. Such comparisons and growth rates can be found in our accompanying dataset.