GDP monthly estimate, UK: July 2026

In the three months to July 2026, compared with the three months to April 2026:

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.4%, following a growth of 0.4% in the three months to June 2026 and a growth of 0.6% in the three months to May 2026.

• Services output grew by 0.6%, after growing by 0.5% in the three months to June 2026.

• Production output fell by 0.5%, following no growth in the three months to June 2026.

• Construction output fell by 0.5%; this follows a growth of 0.3% in the three months to June 2026.

In the month to July 2026:

• Monthly GDP grew by 0.4% in July 2026, following a growth of 0.3% in June 2026 and no growth in May 2026.

• The growth in July was because of rises of 0.4% in services, of 0.2% in production and of 0.1% in construction.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in the three months to July 2026, compared with the three months to April 2026. This is the eighth consecutive three-month on three-month growth and follows a growth of 0.4% in the three months to June, and a growth of 0.6% in the three months to May 2026.

The largest contribution to the three-month on three-month growth came from the services sector, which grew by 0.6% in the three months to July 2026. There were falls in both remaining main sectors, production and construction, with falls of 0.5% in each.

In this release, there are no periods open for revision. The full time series will be open for revision in our next release, which will be published on 15 October 2026. This will include revisions from Blue Book 2026 and the quarterly national accounts release, which will be published on 30 September 2026. More information can be found in Section 8: Blue Book revisions.

Note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision in future publications (both positive and negative) as more data become available and we subsequently update for that additional information. Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information on revisions, and our recent blog on managing the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy, when producing GDP.

Monthly real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in July 2026, following a growth of 0.3% in June 2026, and no growth in May 2026. Services output grew by 0.4%, production grew by 0.2%, and construction grew by 0.1%.

Over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.3% in the three months to July 2026, compared with the same three months a year ago. Over this period, services grew by 1.7% and production grew by 0.5%, while construction fell by 2.3%

Compared to the same month a year ago, GDP is estimated to be 1.6% higher in July 2026.

Services output grew 0.6% in the three months to July 2026, compared with the three months to April 2026, and was the main contributor to the growth seen in gross domestic product (GDP) in the three months to July 2026. This follows a growth of 0.5% in the three months to June 2026, and a growth of 0.6% in the three months to May 2026.

Figure 3: Services output grew by 0.6% in the three months to July 2026, following a growth of 0.5% in the three months to June 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the services sector, UK, January 2023 to July 2026

There was a rise in output in 11 of the 14 subsectors in the three months to July 2026, with the largest positive contributions at the subsector level coming from:

• professional, scientific and technical activities (up 2.1%), driven by growths in scientific research and development (up 7.0%), legal activities (up 3.1%), and advertising and market research (up 3.4%)

• information and communication (up 2.5%), which was mainly driven by a growth of 4.4% in computer programming, consultancy and related activities

• administrative and support service activities (up 1.3%), driven by growths of 6.1% in rental and leasing activities, and of 2.8% in services to buildings and landscape activities

The largest negative contributions at the subsector level came from:

• wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (down 0.5%), driven by a fall of 3.0% in wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• education (down 0.3%), driven by a fall in non-market education (down 1.0%); this aligns with the closure of some schools during the heatwave conditions seen across much of the UK during June

On the month, services output grew by 0.4% in July 2026. This follows growths of 0.4% in June 2026 and 0.1% in May 2026. In July 2026, 8 of the 14 subsectors grew.

The largest positive contribution to services sector output in July 2026 came from administrative and support service activities (up 3.7%). This was driven by growths in rental and leasing activities (up 7.9%), services to buildings and landscape activities (up 4.0%), and employment activities (up 2.5%).

The second largest positive contribution came from information and communication, which grew by 2.4% in July 2026. This was mainly driven by a growth of 3.5% in computer programming, consultancy and related activities, which contributed 0.14 percentage points to services output and 0.12 percentage points to real GDP in July 2026. (Figure 5).

There is evidence that across computer programming, consultancy and related activities, and information services activities (up 1.1% in July 2026), many of the businesses reporting the largest turnover in July 2026 are involved in activities related to artificial intelligence and cloud computing. However, because of the nature of our data collection, it is difficult for us to quantify the exact impact of these types of activities on turnover.

Human health and social work activities also contributed positively, with a growth of 0.5% in July 2026. This was mainly driven by growths of 0.6% in human health activities, and of 0.4% in residential care activities.

The largest negative contribution to services output in July 2026 was wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (down 1.0%). This was driven by a 1.4% fall in wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which was the industry that made the largest negative contribution to both services and real GDP output in July 2026. This contributed negative 0.07 percentage points to services output and negative 0.05 percentage points to real GDP growth.

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services output grew by 0.5% in the three months to July 2026, compared with the three months to April 2026.

The largest positive contributions in this period came from:

• retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.4%)

• accommodation (up 3.2%)

• sports activities and amusement and recreation activities (3.2%)

• other personal service activities (up 2.0%)

The largest negative contributions in this period came from:

• food and beverage service activities (down 1.4%)

• travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities (down 3.4%)

• buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rent (down 0.4%)

Consumer-facing services fell by 0.4% in July 2026, following a growth of 0.4% in June 2026, and a growth of 0.5% in May 2026. The largest negative contribution at the industry level came from retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (down 0.5%). This follows growths of 1.0% in June and 1.2% in May 2026. For more information, see our Retail sales, Great Britain: July 2026 bulletin.

Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles was the second largest negative contributor, with a fall of 1.7%. The largest positive contribution to consumer-facing services in July 2026 came from accommodation, which grew by 2.6%.

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.3% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 84.6% in July 2026, which is broadly as expected at this point in the data reporting cycle. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2023, 2024, and 2025 now stands at 97.5%, 97.6%, and 97.9%, respectively.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: July 2026 bulletin.

The production sector is estimated to have contracted by 0.5% in the three months to July 2026, compared with the three months to April 2026. This follows no growth in the three months to June 2026 and a growth of 0.2% in the three months to May 2026.

Figure 7: Production output fell by 0.5% in the three months to July 2026, despite growing by 0.2% in the month of July 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for index of production, UK, January 2023 to July 2026

In the three months to July 2026, the production sector contracted by 0.5%, with negative contributions coming from water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (down 4.0%), electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (down 1.5%), and mining and quarrying (down 2.6%). This was partially offset by a growth of 0.5% in manufacturing.

Figure 8: Production sectors monthly indices and three-monthly growth rates

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the production sectors, UK, January 2023 to July 2026

Notes:

1. Indices are rounded to one decimal place. 
2. Weights of these sub-sectors are available in the GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

On the month, the production output is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in July 2026, following falls of 0.2% in June and 0.7% in May 2026. This was driven by growths in manufacturing (up 0.9%) and water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (up 2.0%), but partially offset by falls in mining and quarrying (down 4.4%) and electricity, gas steam and air conditioning supply (down 1.5%).

Manufacturing output

Manufacturing output grew by 0.5% in the three months to July 2026, compared with the three months to April 2026, with 7 of the 13 subsectors increasing over this period.

The largest positive contributions came from:

• manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical products (up 3.9%)

• manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. (up 3.0%)

• manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco (up 1.1%)

These growths were partially offset by falls elsewhere, with the largest negative contributions coming from:

• manufacture of basic metals and metal products (down 1.2%)

• manufacture of wood and paper products, and printing (down 2.0%)

• manufacture of electrical equipment (down 3.0%)

Figure 9 shows both the three-month and monthly contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing sub-sectors.

In the month of July 2026, manufacturing output grew by 0.9%, with 8 of the 13 subsectors increasing. This follows a fall of 0.5% in June 2026 and a fall of 0.2% in May 2026.

The largest positive contribution came from a growth of 5.2% in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, following a fall of 0.9% in June 2026. The next largest positive contribution came from a growth of 3.4% in manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, following a fall of 5.1% in June 2026. These growths were partially offset by falls in manufacture of rubber and plastics products, and other non-metallic mineral products (down 4.5%), and in manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. (down 1.5%).

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 71.2% of the production sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 86.5% in July 2026, which is broadly in line with expected response rates. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases, in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy. For context, the average turnover response rates for the production sector in 2023, 2024 and 2025 now stand at 97.7%, 97.8% and 97.9%, respectively.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Production, UK: July 2026 bulletin.

Construction output is estimated to have decreased by 0.5% in the three months to July 2026, compared with the three months to April 2026. Both new work and repair and maintenance fell over the period, decreasing by 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively. Within new work, the largest negative contribution came from public housing new work, which fell by 8.4%. In repair and maintenance, the largest negative contribution came from private housing repair and maintenance, which fell by 1.7%.

Figure 10: Construction output fell by 0.5% in the three months to July 2026, compared with the three months to April 2026 

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the construction sector, Great Britain, January 2023 to July 2026

Monthly construction output is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in July 2026. This follows a fall of 0.1% in June 2026, and a fall of 0.8% in May 2026.

The growth in monthly output in July 2026 came solely from an increase in repair and maintenance, which grew by 0.8%. New work fell by 0.4%. At the sector level, the main contribution to the monthly increase in repair and maintenance was private housing repair and maintenance, which grew by 1.7%.

Figure 11: Repair and maintenance increased while new work decreased in July 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates of the construction subsectors, Great Britain, January 2023 to July 2026

Figure 12 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to construction output from each of the construction sectors.

Construction data are sourced from our Monthly Business Survey. For July 2026, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 80.0%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 95.4% and 95.8%, respectively, while the average response rate for 2025 is 97.4%.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: July 2026 bulletin.

There were some common themes that were anecdotally reported to have played a part in performance across different industries in July 2026, as part of our monthly business surveys. However, it is difficult to quantify their exact impact.

The warm weather in July 2026, which the Met Office reported as the UK provisionally recording its second warmest July on record (PDF, 6MB), was cited by some businesses as having a positive impact on turnover. Positive impacts were mentioned by businesses across a range of manufacturing industries, accommodation, and creative arts and entertainment. In contrast, the warm weather was also cited by some businesses as having a negative impact in terms of construction activities and personal service activities.

The FIFA Football World Cup, which started on 11 June 2026 and concluded on 19 July 2026, was again cited by some businesses across a range of industries as a reason for their increase in turnover in July 2026. Positive impacts on individual businesses do not always correspond with the movement across the overall industry. Positive comments were cited in manufacture of alcohol, wholesale, pubs and clubs, and advertising. There were also some negative impacting comments about the World Cup from restaurants.

Our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators, UK: 4 September 2026 dashboard provides early insights into UK economic activity for August 2026.

Indicators of consumer demand weakened in August 2026. Retail footfall fell slightly compared with the previous month, particularly in district and local centres and in town and city centres. This coincided with less favourable weather conditions, although levels remained relatively high compared with earlier in the year. Annual growth in the estimated quantity of automotive fuel demanded per transaction eased further, alongside increases in fuel prices during July and August. Our Retail Sales, Great Britain release for August 2026 will be published on 18 September 2026.

Housing indicators showed weaker activity in August 2026. The number of Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) lodged for new dwellings in England and Wales was lower than in the corresponding weeks of August 2025. New sales listings on the Rightmove website also declined, while the average time properties remained on the market increased further.

The labour market showed further signs of improvement. Early August 2026 data suggest that the number of potential redundancies, measured by HR1 forms submitted to the Insolvency Service, continued to fall following declines in June and July. This follows a peak in May 2026, when potential redundancies reached their highest level since the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Indicators relating to travel activity were stronger in August 2026, with the seasonally adjusted number of UK flights increasing compared with the same month a year earlier.

According to our Business insights and impact on the UK economy, Wave 162, dataset, published on 20 August 2026, economic uncertainty (29%) remained the most commonly reported challenge affecting turnover among trading businesses in August 2026. This is down 3 percentage points from July 2026 but up 4 percentage points compared with a year earlier. Among businesses with 10 or more employees, labour costs (35%) remained the most commonly reported challenge, broadly stable from July 2026.

Our Business insights and impact on the UK economy, Wave 163, dataset, published on 3 September 2026, stated that 59% of businesses reported some degree of concern about energy prices in late August 2026, and that 63% reported some degree of concern about fuel prices, broadly stable from late July 2026. Among businesses with 10 or more employees, 71% reported concerns about energy prices and 71% reported concerns about fuel prices, with both proportions being broadly stable over the same period.

In line with the annual UK National Accounts (Blue Book), we will be open to revision across the entire time series in our next release, which will be published on 15 October 2026. An indicative monthly path will be included in the quarterly national accounts release, which will be published on 30 September 2026.

Blue Book 2026 will incorporate more recent survey and administrative information, together with methodological improvements. Our Blue Book 2026: industry impact analysis article covers the impact of these improvements on our industry level data. Data for 2024 will be estimated for the first time using the annual supply and use tables (SUTs) framework. We will provide detailed revision analysis in our upcoming article, which will be published on 30 October 2026.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. While growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our Monthly GDP low level industry data dataset. Where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in our following bulletins:

• Index of Services, UK: July 2026

• Index of Production, UK: July 2026

• Construction output in Great Britain: July 2026

The main data source for these statistics is the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found in our following datasets:

• Index of Services response rates

• Index of Production response rates

• Construction response rates

Our Monthly GDP data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ from those published in the construction output release, as they account for both the outputs produced and the inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer facing services:

• Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Rail transport

• Accommodation

• Food and beverage service activities

• Buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• Veterinary activities

• Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

• Gambling and betting services

• Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

• Activities of membership organisations

• Other personal service activities

• Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Intermediate consumption in early estimates of monthly GDP

Monthly GDP measures the gross value added (GVA) of each industry in the economy. GVA is derived as the industry's output minus its intermediate consumption, where output is the value of goods and services produced and intermediate consumption is the value of goods and services purchased to be used in the production of goods and services.

Estimates of intermediate consumption are only collected annually. For most industries, our monthly estimates are based on deflated turnover or volume estimates of output as a proxy for GVA. Complete estimates of GVA are calculated as part of our annual Blue Book process, where both output and intermediate consumption are measured. The annual process for calculating estimates of GVA is described in our Double deflation and the supply use framework in the UK National Accounts article.

The main assumption this proxy approach makes is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same past the last year where annual GVA estimates are available. Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates. This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption ratio or IC ratio. This is the intermediate consumption of an industry divided by its output. The last year where annual GVA estimates are available is 2023 and the intermediate consumption ratios for each section are shown in Table 1.

When the annual data for 2024 are available, if the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and hence GVA (other things equal) will be lower. We therefore expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate.

Strengths and limitations

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".

Quality and methodology information (QMI) on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

Seasonal adjustment

The monthly estimates of GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using just raw data because seasonal effects can dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

We use the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology.

In our monthly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output.

Based on our quality assurance as part of this publication, there is no statistically significant residual seasonality in our aggregate estimates for monthly GDP, Index of Services, Index of Production, Construction or Manufacturing, in the period from January 1997 to July 2026.

This topic is explored further in our article on assessing residual seasonality, published on 12 May 2026.

Since May 2026, we have published non-seasonally adjusted chained volume measure series in our updated low level industry dataset. There are conceptual differences between indirect and direct seasonal adjustment. Indirect seasonal adjustment is the aggregation of the directly seasonally adjusted component series, typically chosen at an optimal level, and depending on user needs. For the National Accounts, GDP aggregates are created with indirect seasonal adjustment. Because of processing, including benchmarking and chain-linking, direct seasonal adjustment of the non-seasonally adjusted GDP aggregate will not give the same results as the indirect seasonally adjusted output.

Upcoming changes to structure of datasets

We would like to notify users that there will be some changes to the structure of our published datasets from September 2026.

As a result of improvements in the upcoming Blue Book 2026, we will merge the industries of mining of coal and lignite (SIC industry 05) with the extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas extraction (SIC industry 06) in our low level industries dataset and quarterly low level aggregates dataset.

We will also no longer publish the chained volume measures for the manufacture of vegetable and animal oils and fats (SIC industry 10.4). This will still form part of the aggregate series for the manufacture of food products (SIC industry 10) and higher aggregates. Current prices will continue to be published in our quarterly low level aggregates dataset.

These changes will be implemented in our Quarterly National Accounts release, which will be published on 30 September 2026, and our Monthly GDP release, which will be published on 15 October 2026. Further information on these changes is available in our Blue Book 2026: industry impact analysis article.

Consultation on release times for market sensitive economic statistics

We are reviewing the release times for our market sensitive economic statistics, such as our GDP monthly estimate. This review will consider whether the current arrangements continue to best serve the public good, support user needs and align with the principles set out in the Code of Practice for Statistics.

We are running a consultation to gather evidence on the impact of different release times. The consultation asks how you use market-sensitive economic statistics, your views on potential release time options, and any other considerations we should take into account. Please note that this consultation will be closing on Friday 30 October 2026.