GDP monthly estimate, UK: February 2024

• Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in February 2024, following growth of 0.3% in January 2024 (revised up from 0.2% growth in our previous publication).

• Real gross domestic product is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the three months to February 2024, compared with the three months to November 2023.

• Services output grew by 0.1% in February 2024, following growth of 0.3% in January 2024 (revised up from 0.2% growth in our previous publication), and has grown by 0.2% in the three months to February 2024.

• Production output grew by 1.1% in February 2024 and was the largest contributor to the growth in GDP in the month, following a fall of 0.3% in January 2024 (revised down from a 0.2% fall in our previous publication); production output grew by 0.7% in the three months to February 2024.

• Construction output fell by 1.9% in February 2024, following an unrevised growth of 1.1% in January 2024; construction output has fallen by 1.0% in the three months to February 2024.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the three months to February 2024, compared with the three months to November 2023. Services output was the main contributor, with a growth of 0.2% in this period, while production output rose by 0.7% and construction fell by 1.0%.

Monthly real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in February 2024, following growth of 0.3% in January 2024 (revised up from 0.2% in our previous publication).

This bulletin contains revisions to January 2024 data for the first time, and also takes on revisions from January 2023 to December 2023 consistent with our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: October to December 2023 bulletin published on 28 March 2024.

It is important to note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive and negative). Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information.

Production output grew by 1.1% in February 2024 and was the largest contributor to the rise in GDP in February. Services output also grew, by 0.1%, while construction partially offset these with a fall of 1.9%.

GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.2% in February 2024 compared with the same month last year and, looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in the three months to February 2024 compared with the three months to February 2023.

Overall, the services sector is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the three months to February 2024 compared with the three months to November 2023, with output in 8 of the 14 subsectors rising over this period.

Professional, scientific and technical activities was the largest positive contributor to the rise in services output in this three-month period, growing by 1.1% in the three months to February 2024. The next largest contributions came from admin and support service activities, which grew by 1.6% and transportation and storage, with output here rising by 2.2%.

These growths were partially offset by a 1.4% fall in education, a 0.7% fall in human health and social work activities and a 0.7% fall in financial and insurance activities in the three months to February 2024.

On the month, services output is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in February 2024, following a rise of 0.3% in January 2024 (revised up from 0.2% in our previous publication), with 8 of the 14 subsectors showing growth in February. Figure 3 shows both the monthly and the three-month contributions from the services sector to gross domestic product (GDP) growth in February 2024.

The largest positive contribution at the subsector level in services in February 2024 came from transportation and storage, which rose by 2.6% in the month. This was driven by a 6.5% growth in land transport services and transport services via pipelines, excluding rail transport, its largest growth since June 2020. Monthly Business Survey (MBS) data showed strength in the industry, and a reclassification of a company into this industry, from the wholesale trade excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles, also contributed to the growth in February 2024.

Also contributing positively to the month was information and communication, which grew by 1.0% in February 2024, driven by a 1.5% rise in telecommunications, and professional, scientific and technical activities, which grew by 0.5% in February 2024.

The largest negative contribution to services growth in February 2024 came from wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, falling by 0.5% in February 2024, mainly attributed to a fall of 1.3% in wholesale trade excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles.

Also contributing negatively was human health and social work activities, which fell by 0.6% in February 2024, mainly caused by a fall of 1.0% in human health activities. This fall in human health activities mainly resulted from a fall in the market sector part of the industry, after it performed well in January 2024. Accommodation and food service activities fell by 1.2%, with declines in both accommodation (negative 2.1%) and food and beverage service activities (negative 0.8%).

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our data sources catalogue. The Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 42.9% of the services sector by industry weight. In February 2024, the turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 84.1%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 97.0% and 96.9%.

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services grew by 0.2% in the three months to February 2024 compared with the three months to November 2023. The main driver to the growth was a 3.6% rise in output in sports activities and amusement and recreation activities, while the largest negative contributor was buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate which fell by 1.1% in the three months to February 2024.

Output in consumer-facing services fell by 0.1% in February 2024, following a rise of 0.7% in January 2024 (revised up from 0.6% in our previous publication), as shown in Figure 4. The main drivers to the fall in February 2024 were falls of 2.1% in accommodation and 0.8% in food and beverage service activities. The main offsetting movement came from the other personal service activities industry, which grew by 0.7% in February 2024.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: February 2024.

Production output is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in the three months to February 2024 compared with the three months to November 2023. This was driven by a 1.2% rise in manufacturing output. Electricity, gas steam and air conditioning supply also contributed positively, with a 1.2% growth in this period, while there were falls of 2.0% in water supply, sewerage, waste management, and 2.5% in mining and quarrying.

On the month, production output is estimated to have grown by 1.1% in February 2024, following a fall of 0.3% in January 2024 (revised down from a 0.2% fall in our previous publication).

Mining and quarrying output was the only subsector that contributed negatively to production output in February 2024, falling by 0.8% in the month.

Electricity, gas steam and air conditioning supply grew by 0.5% in February 2024, driven entirely by a 5.3% growth in the manufacture of gas: distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam and aircon supply, which was slightly offset by a 0.6% fall in electric power generation, transmission and distribution.

Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities output rose by 1.9% in February 2024, following three consecutive monthly falls in November and December 2023 and January 2024. Three of the four industries within saw growth with only water collection, treatment and supply falling in February 2024, by 0.9%.

Manufacturing output rose by 1.2% in February 2024, with widespread growth in 11 of the 13 subsectors. The largest contributor to this growth was the manufacture of transport equipment, which rose by 3.7% in February 2024. This is growth supported by the latest data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), which reports that car manufacturing in February 2024 was 14.6% higher than February 2023 and, year-to-date, car manufacturing is up by 17.8% in February 2024 compared with February 2023.

The next largest positive contributions, in February 2024, were from the manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco, which grew by 1.3% and the manufacture of basic metals and metal products, which grew by 1.9%. The largest offsetting negative movement was in the manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified (n.e.c.), which fell by 3.3% in February 2024. Both the monthly and three-month contributions are shown in Figure 7.

The Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 75.9% of the production sector by industry weight. In February 2024, the turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 83.8%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases, in line with the National Accounts revision policy. For context, the average turnover response rate for the production sector in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 96.9% and 97.0%, respectively. A full set of data sources used in monthly GDP can be found in our data sources catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in the Index of Production, UK: February 2024.

Construction output is estimated to have fallen 1.0% in the three months to February 2024 compared with the three months to November 2023. New work decreased 3.0% over the period, while repair and maintenance rose by 1.6%. Within new work, the largest contributor to the decrease came from infrastructure new work, which decreased by 5.5%.

In February 2024, monthly construction output is estimated to have decreased 1.9% in volume terms. This follows an increase of 1.1% in January 2024 (unrevised from our previous publication). The decrease in monthly output in February 2024 came from decreases in both new work (2.3% fall) and repair and maintenance (1.4% fall).

Eight out of the nine sectors saw a decrease on the month. The main contributors to the monthly decrease at the sector level were non-housing repair and maintenance, and private commercial new work, which decreased 2.5% and 4.0%, respectively. The only sector that grew in February 2024 was private housing repair and maintenance, where output grew by 0.2%.

Anecdotal evidence received from returns for the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) for construction and allied trades suggested negative effects of heavy rainfall delaying planned work and decreasing output in February 2024. The Met Office confirmed in their Monthly climate summary (PDF, 4.3MB) that the southern half of the UK, in particular, saw more than twice the average rainfall in February 2024, and it was the fourth wettest February on record in England.

Construction data are sourced from our MBS. For February 2024, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 76.2%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 94.7% and 94.5%, respectively.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: February 2024.

There were some common themes that were anecdotally reported to have played a part in performance across different industries. However, it is difficult to quantify the exact impact.

Comments provided to the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) for February 2024 suggested some industries may have seen supply chains affected by disruption in the Red Sea. These comments to the survey centred in the wholesale trade excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles, warehousing and human health industries. Most notably, the large monthly fall in wholesale excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles in February 2024 had many more comments this month around supply chain disruption compared with January 2024 MBS survey comments.  

Further evidence of the conflict in the Middle East affecting supply chains is further provided in wave 104 of our Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) (XLSX, 2.29KB). In February 2024, the top industries that experience global supply disruption were wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles and human health and social work activities, where approximately 1 in 10 businesses were affected. Looking at the reason for this global supply chain disruption, around 50% of businesses across the economy cited "conflict in the Middle East" as the reason. At the industry level, this increased to 63% for wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles.

There were negative comments provided to the MBS by the construction and food and beverage industries regarding wet weather in February 2024 (which was the fourth wettest February on record in England according to the Met Office's Monthly climate summary (PDF, 4.3MB). This was also reported in our Retail sales, Great Britain: February 2024 bulletin as a factor for fewer sales by household goods and food stores but increased online sales.

This release gives data for February 2024 for the first time and incorporates revisions to monthly data from January 2023 to December 2023, as published in our Gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly national accounts, UK: October to December 2023 bulletin on 28 March 2024. January 2024 is also open to revision, taking on updated source data. Table 1 shows the revisions to monthly GDP and sectors for the open period since the last monthly publication on 13 March 2024.

The revision to services growth in January 2024 was predominantly caused by late and updated monthly business survey data, particularly in the following industries:

• wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles

• warehousing and support activities for transportation

• architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis

• rental and leasing activities

The revision to production growth in January 2024 was mainly caused by late and updated Monthly Business Survey (MBS) data in the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations industry.

Details on the revisions to monthly GDP prior to January 2024 are provided in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: October to December 2023 bulletin.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

• Construction output in Great Britain: February 2024

• Index of Production, UK: February 2024

• Index of Services, UK: February 2024

The main data source for these statistics is the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found in the following datasets:

• Output in the construction industry

• Monthly Business Survey (production) response rates

• Current and historical MBS (services) response rates

Our Monthly GDP data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. However, there are reasons as to why these would not provide the same estimate as to where the economy is relative to its pre-pandemic levels. This primarily reflects that monthly estimate of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer-facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer-facing services:

• wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• rail transport

• accommodation

• food and beverage service activities

• buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• veterinary activities

• travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

• gambling and betting services

• sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

• activities of membership organisations

• other personal service activities

• activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.