GDP monthly estimate, UK: December 2025

In the three months to December 2025, compared with the three months to September 2025:

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.1%, after a fall of 0.1% in the three months to November (revised down from a growth of 0.1% in our previous bulletin), and a fall of 0.1% in the three months to October 2025 (revised down from showing no growth in our previous bulletin).

• Services output showed no growth, after also showing no growth in the three months to November 2025 (revised down from a growth of 0.2% in our previous bulletin).

• Production output grew by 1.2%; this follows an unrevised fall of 0.1% in the three months to November 2025.

• Construction output fell by 2.1%, following a fall of 0.9% in the three months to November 2025 (revised up from a fall of 1.1% in our previous bulletin); this continues a pattern of slowing growth in the three-monthly measure since May 2025 and is the lowest reading in the three-monthly growth since September 2021.

In the month to December 2025:

• Monthly GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.1%, following a growth of 0.2% in November 2025 (revised down from a growth of 0.3% in our previous bulletin) and an unrevised fall of 0.1% in October 2025.

• Services grew by 0.3%; however, production fell by 0.9% and construction fell by 0.5% in December 2025.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in the three months to December 2025, compared with the three months to September 2025. This follows a fall of 0.1% in the three months to November 2025 (revised down from a growth of 0.1% in our previous bulletin), and a fall of 0.1% in the three months to October 2025 (revised down from showing no growth in our previous bulletin).

The largest contribution to the three-month on three-month growth came from a growth of 1.2% in production output. Services output showed no growth in the three months to December 2025, and construction output fell by 2.1%.

January to November 2025 are open for revision in this release. Details on the causes of revisions are discussed in Section 7: Revisions to GDP.

Early estimates of GDP are subject to both positive and negative revision in future releases as more data become available and we subsequently update our estimates with that additional information. For more information, please see our Why GDP figures are revised article.

Monthly real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in December 2025, following a growth of 0.2% in November 2025 (revised down from 0.3% in our last bulletin). Services grew by 0.3% in December 2025. This was partially offset by falls of 0.9% in production and 0.5% in construction in December 2025.

Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.0% in the three months to December 2025, compared with the three months to December 2024. Services grew by 1.0%, production grew by 1.0%, and construction grew by 0.2% over this period.

GDP is estimated to be 0.7% higher in December 2025, compared with December 2024.

In terms of annual growth, output GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.3% in 2025, compared with 2024. This was driven by 1.4% growth in services output, 0.2% growth in production and 1.8% growth in construction. This is the first annual growth in production since 2021. Further information on the annual growth is given in Section 6: Annual overview.

Services output showed no growth in the three months to December 2025, compared with the three months to September 2025. This follows no growth in the three months to November 2025 (revised down from a growth of 0.2% in our previous bulletin) and no growth in the three months to October 2025 (revised down from a growth of 0.1% in our previous bulletin). This is therefore the third consecutive month of no growth on a three-month on three-month basis in the services sector.

Figure 3: Services output showed no growth in the three months to December 2025, after also showing no growth in the three months to October and November 2025

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the services sector, January 2023 to December 2025, UK

There was a rise in output in 8 of the 14 subsectors in the three months to December 2025. The largest positive contributions, at the subsector level, came from:

• administrative and support service activities (up 1.2%), driven by growths in travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities (up 7.5%) and employment activities (up 3.1%)

• public administration and defence; compulsory social security (up 0.5%)

• information and communication (up 0.4%), driven by growths in motion picture, video and television programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities (up 8.5%) and information service activities (up 8.0%)

• human health and social work activities (up 0.2%), driven by growth in human health activities (up 0.3%)

The largest negative contributions, at the subsector level, came from:

• professional, scientific and technical activities (down 1.1%), driven by falls in accounting, bookkeeping and auditing activities; tax consultancy (down 5.1%) and advertising and market research (down 4.1%)

• education (down 0.5%)

Services output is estimated to have risen by 0.3% in December 2025. This follows a growth of 0.1% in November 2025 (revised down from a growth of 0.3% in our previous bulletin). In December 2025, 8 of the 14 subsectors showed a growth.

The largest positive contribution to services sector output in December 2025 came from transportation and storage (up 2.0%), driven by 2.5% growth in warehousing and support activities for transportation and 2.2% growth in land transport services and transport services via pipelines, excluding rail transport.

The second largest positive contribution came from administrative and support service activities (up 1.4%), driven by office administrative, office support and other business support activities (up 2.4%) and services to buildings and landscape activities (up 4.0%).

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles rose by 0.6%, contributing positively to services output in December 2025. This was mainly because of a growth of 1.0% in wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles.

The largest positive contribution to growth in services output from a single industry came from a 5.5% growth in advertising and market research. This growth contributed 0.07 percentage points to the services sector and 0.05 percentage points to real GDP growth in December 2025. This follows falls in the previous eight months, and was offset by falls in other industries in the professional, scientific and technical activities subsector.

Human health and social work activities fell by 0.4%, which was the largest negative contribution at the subsector level in December 2025. This fall was driven by a 0.6% fall in human health activities.

The next largest negative contribution to services output growth came from information and communication (down 0.5%). This fall was driven by a 2.0% fall in computer programming, consultancy and related activities, which was the largest negative contribution from a single industry. This fall contributed negative 0.07 percentage points to services output and negative 0.06 percentage points to real GDP growth in December 2025.

Arts, entertainment and recreation fell by 1.9%, contributing negatively to services output in December 2025. This was driven by a fall of 5.9% in sports activities, and amusement and recreation activities.

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services output increased by 0.2% in the three months to December 2025, compared with the three months to September 2025. The largest positive contributions in this period came from:

• travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities (up 7.5%)

• food and beverage service activities (up 1.5%)

• sports activities, and amusement and recreation activities (up 2.9%)

The largest partially offsetting decreases came from wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (down 2.1%) and accommodation (down 2.9%).

Output in consumer-facing services grew by 0.3% in December 2025, following a fall of 0.3% in November 2025 (revised down from a fall of 0.2% in our previous bulletin). The largest positive contributions at the industry level came from food and beverage service activities (up 1.6%), retail trade, except or motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 0.4%), and buying and selling, renting and operating of our own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental (up 0.5%).

The largest negative contribution came from sports activities and amusement and recreation activities (down 5.9%), which followed three months of consecutive growth. This industry includes some volatile inputs, such as returns from large sporting organisations, where the timing of payments received can vary each year.

More information on consumer-facing services data is available in our Consumer-facing services: December 2025 dataset.

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue. Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.6% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 85.5% in December 2025, which is broadly as expected at this point in the data reporting cycle. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2023, 2024 and 2025 now stand at 97.5%, 97.6% and 95.6%, respectively.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: December 2025 bulletin.

Production output is estimated to have grown by 1.2% in the three months to December 2025, compared with the three months to September 2025. This follows falls in the previous seven months, including an unrevised fall of 0.1% in the three months to November 2025.

Figure 8: Production output grew by 1.2% in the three months to December, despite a fall of 0.9% in December 2025, after falls in the previous seven three-month on three-month periods

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for index of production, January 2023 to December 2025, UK

The growth in production output in the three months to December 2025 was driven by all four production sectors increasing in this period. The growth was mainly driven by a 0.9% increase in manufacturing; this follows falls in the previous five months. There were also growths in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (up 3.1%), mining and quarrying (up 1.4%) and water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (up 0.7%) in the three months to December 2025.

Figure 9: Production sectors’ monthly indices and three-monthly growth rates

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the production sectors, January 2023 to December 2025, UK

Notes

1. Indices are rounded to one decimal place. 

2. Weights of these subsectors are available in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

On the month, production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.9% in December 2025. This follows growths of 1.3% in November (revised up from a growth of 1.1% in our previous bulletin), and 1.7% in October 2025 (revised up from a growth of 1.3% in our previous bulletin).

There were falls in all of the production subsectors. The largest negative contributions came from a 0.5% fall in manufacturing and a 1.7% fall in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply. Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities fell by 2.4%, and mining and quarrying fell by 0.7%, in December 2025.

Manufacturing output

Manufacturing output grew by 0.9% in the three months to December 2025, compared with the three months to September 2025. Over this period, 7 of the 13 subsectors increased. The largest positive contributors to this growth over the three months were:

• other manufacturing and repair (up 5.3%), which had the fifth consecutive three-monthly growth, largely driven by growths in other manufacturing (up 8.9%) and rest of repair; installation (up 7.4%)

• manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. (up 4.6%)

• manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical products (up 3.3%)

• manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (up 1.8%)

These growths were partially offset by falls elsewhere, with the largest negative contributions coming from:

• manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco (down 1.5%)

• manufacture of transport equipment (down 0.8%)

Figure 10 shows both the three-month and monthly contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing subsectors.

Manufacturing output fell by 0.5% in December 2025, with 8 of the 13 subsectors falling in December 2025. This follows a 1.9% growth in November 2025 (revised down from a 2.1% growth in our previous bulletin) and an unrevised growth of 0.4% in October 2025.

The largest negative contribution came from a fall of 2.6% in the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations. The next largest negative contributions came from the manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco (down 1.4%) and manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (down 5.0%)

These falls were partially offset by growths in the manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical products (up 5.6%), manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. (up 2.6%), and manufacture of electrical equipment (up 4.9%) in December 2025.

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 72.9% of the production sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 87.0% in December 2025, which is broadly in line with expected response rates. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases, in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy. For context, the average turnover response rates for the production sector in 2023, 2024 and 2025 now stand at 97.7%, 97.8% and 96.1%, respectively. A full set of data sources used in monthly GDP can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: December 2025 bulletin.

Construction output is estimated to have fallen by 2.1% in the three months to December 2025, compared with the three months to September 2025. Repair and maintenance fell by 1.5%, and new work fell by 2.6% over this period. Within repair and maintenance, the largest negative contributor came from private housing repair and maintenance, which fell by 2.9%. In new work, the largest negative contributor came from private housing new work, which fell by 3.6%. This is the largest three-monthly fall in construction output since September 2021, when it fell by 2.5%.

Figure 11: Construction output fell by 2.1% in the three months to December 2025, compared with the three months to September 2025

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the construction sector, January 2023 to December 2025, Great Britain

Notes

1. Pre-2024, the construction values used in monthly GDP are aligned to annual estimates of gross value added. They differ to those in our Construction output in Great Britain: December 2025, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, October to December 2025 bulletin, which measure output only.

Monthly construction output is estimated to have decreased by 0.5% in December 2025. This follows a fall of 0.8% in November 2025 (revised up from a fall of 1.3% in our previous publication) and a fall of 1.6% in October 2025 (revised down from a fall of 1.2%).

The decrease in monthly output in December 2025 came solely from a fall in repair and maintenance (2.5%), as new work grew by 1.0% on the month. At the sector level, the main contributor to the monthly decrease was non-housing repair and maintenance, which fell by 4.9%.

Figure 12: New work fell by 2.6% and repair and maintenance fell by 1.5% in the three months to December 2025

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates of the construction subsectors, January 2023 to December 2025, Great Britain

Figure 13 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to construction output from each of the construction sectors.

Construction data are sourced from our Monthly Business Survey (MBS). The MBS turnover response rate for construction was 74.9% for December 2025. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2023, 2024 and 2025 now stand at 95.4%, 95.8% and 93.7%, respectively.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: December 2025, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, October to December 2025 bulletin.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 1.3% in 2025 from an annual output perspective. All three main sectors grew in this period. This follows a growth of 1.0% in 2024. Services output was the largest contributor to the growth in 2025 (up 1.4%), with 13 of the 14 subsectors increasing in this period. Construction grew by 1.8% in 2025, after growing by 0.1% in 2024. Production output grew by 0.2% in 2025, after decreasing by 1.2% in 2024.

Figure 14: Monthly indices of the subsectors within GDP

Monthly indices, 2023=100, UK, January 2023 to December 2025

Notes

1. Some subsector names have been shortened to aid readability. The full names of each subsector are included in the associated data download for this chart and in Figure 15.

In 2025, 17 out of the 20 subsectors increased and the remaining 3 decreased. The largest contributions to the growth came from a 4.5% growth in information and communication, and a 3.0% growth in human health and social work activities in 2025. These growths were partially offset by a 0.9% fall in education in 2025.

This release gives data for December 2025 for the first time. January 2025 to November 2025 are open for revision, which is consistent with our GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: October to December 2025 release.

Table 1 shows the revisions to monthly GDP and its main sectors for 2025, since our last monthly bulletin, published on 15 January 2026.

Revisions have been made to the retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles sector across 2025 because of updated returns to our Retail Sales Index (RSI) survey. These revisions are discussed in more detail in our Retail sales, Great Britain: December 2025 bulletin, published on 23 January 2026.

There are also revisions across 2025 because of updated seasonal adjustment factors in non-market education. The revisions to RSI and education were largest in the three months to September and largely offset each other.

The downwards revision to services in November 2025 was largely because of revisions to professional, scientific and technical activities. The largest negative contribution to revisions came from scientific research and development, where there was updated survey data and improvements to the seasonal adjustment factor.

The downwards revision to construction in October 2025, and the upwards revision in November 2025, are because of late and updated survey data received since our last release.

The upwards revision to production in October 2025 is largely because of updated data in the electric power generation, transmission and distribution industry.

We will exceptionally be revising data from January 2024 to December 2025 in our next monthly GDP bulletin, publishing on 13 March 2026. This will bring through updates to non-market education and retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles. These revisions will also be incorporated into our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK, publishing on 31 March 2026, where there will be revisions from January 2024.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. Growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our Monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and main sectors to four decimal places dataset. However, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, we do not recommend looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in:

• our Index of Services, UK: December 2025

• our Index of Production, UK: December 2025

• our Construction output in Great Britain: December 2025, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, October to December 2025

The main data source for these statistics is our Monthly Business Survey (MBS). Response rates for each can be found in:

• our Index of Services response rates dataset

• our Index of Production response rates dataset

• our Construction response rates dataset

A full breakdown of the data used in this bulletin is available in our Monthly GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer-facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer-facing services:

• wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• rail transport

• accommodation

• food and beverage service activities

• buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• veterinary activities

• travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

• gambling and betting services

• sports activities, and amusement and recreation activities

• activities of membership organisations

• other personal service activities

• activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Intermediate consumption in early estimates of monthly GDP

Monthly GDP measures the gross value added (GVA) of each industry in the economy. GVA is derived as the industry's output minus its intermediate consumption, where output is the value of goods and services produced and intermediate consumption is the value of goods and services purchased to be used in the production of goods and services.

Estimates of intermediate consumption are only collected annually. For most industries, our monthly estimates are based on deflated turnover or volume estimates of output as a proxy for GVA. Complete estimates of GVA are calculated as part of our annual Blue Book process, where both output and intermediate consumption are measured. The annual process for calculating estimates of GVA is described in our Double deflation and the supply use framework in the UK National Accounts article.

The main assumption this proxy approach makes is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same past the last year where annual GVA estimates are available. Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates. This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption (IC) ratio, which is the intermediate consumption of an industry divided by its output. The last year where annual GVA estimates are available is 2023 and the intermediate consumption ratios for each section are shown in Table 2.

When the annual data for 2024 are available, if the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and hence GVA (other things equal) will be lower. We therefore expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate.

Strengths and limitations

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our GDP quality and methodology information (QMI).

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

Seasonal adjustment

The monthly estimates of GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using just raw data because seasonal effects can dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

We use the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our monthly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output.

Based on our quality assurance as part of this bulletin, there is no statistically significant residual seasonality in our aggregate estimates for monthly GDP, Index of Services, Index of Production, construction, or manufacturing, in the period from January 1997 to December 2025.

This topic is explored further in our Assessing residual seasonality in published outputs methodology, updated on 30 September 2025.