GDP monthly estimate, UK: August 2024

• Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in August 2024, after showing no growth in July 2024 (unrevised from last publication).

• Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the three months to August 2024 compared with the three months to May 2024.

• Services output grew by 0.1% in August 2024, following an unrevised increase of 0.1% in July 2024, and grew by 0.1% in the three months to August 2024.

• Production output grew by 0.5% in August 2024, following a revised fall of 0.7% in July 2024 (this was a 0.8% fall in our last publication), but showed no growth in the three months to August 2024.

• Construction output grew by 0.4% in August 2024, following an unrevised fall of 0.4% in July 2024, and grew by 1.0% in the three months to August 2024

Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the three months to August 2024 compared with the three months to May 2024. Services output was the main contributor to the growth in the three months to August, rising by 0.1%. There was also a 1.0% increase in construction output, while production output showed no growth over this period.

Monthly real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in August 2024, following no growth in June and July 2024 (both unrevised from our last publication).

In this release July 2024 is open for revision and Blue Book 2024 revisions for January 1997 to June 2024, consistent with our GDP quarterly national accounts bulletin, published on 30 September 2024, have been included. For more information on Blue Book 2024, please see our Data sources and quality section.

All the main sectors grew in August 2024:

• output in services rose by 0.1%

• production output rose by 0.5%

• construction output rose by 0.4%

Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.8% in the three months to August 2024 compared with the three months to August 2023, and by 1.0% in August 2024 compared with the same month last year.

Overall, the services sector is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in the three months to August 2024 compared with the three months to May 2024. There was a rise in output in 7 of the 14 subsectors in this period.

Professional, scientific and technical activities was the largest positive contributor to the rise in services output in this three-month period, growing by 0.8% in the three months to August 2024. The next largest contribution came from information and communication where output increased by 0.9%. The largest negative contribution on the three months to August 2024 was human health and social work activities, which fell by 1.1%.

On the month, services output is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in August 2024, following an unrevised rise of 0.1% in July 2024. Of the 14 subsectors, there were positive contributions from 4 in August, while 7 subsectors contributed negatively to the month and 3 made no contribution (Figure 3).

The largest positive contribution to the growth in the services sector in August 2024 came from the professional, scientific and technical activities subsector where output rose by 1.6% in the month, with growth in six out of the eight industries in this section, following a 1.5% fall in July 2024. Growth in August was mainly driven by increases of 4.3% in the accounting, bookkeeping and auditing activities; tax consultancy industry, 1.7% in legal activities and 2.8% in scientific research and development. 

The next largest positive contribution at the subsector level in August 2024 was a 2.5% growth in other service activities where the other personal service activities industry rose by 4.1% in the month, after three consecutive monthly falls.

Despite output in the services sector rising overall in August 2024, there were negative contributions from seven subsectors including falls of 2.5% in arts, entertainment and recreation, 0.5% in administrative and support service activities, 0.8% in transportation and storage and 0.3% in wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles.

The monthly fall of 0.3% in wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in August 2024 can be attributed to declines of 1.6% in wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles and 1.2% in wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, offsetting the growth of 1.0% in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (please see our Retail Sales, Great Britain: August 2024 bulletin for more information on this industry's monthly movements).

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our data sources catalogue. The Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.6% of the services sector by industry weight. In August 2024, the turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 86.1%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 97.0% and 97.5%.

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services output rose by 0.1% in the three months to August 2024. The largest positive contribution in this period came from a growth of 1.2% in the retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles industry, while the largest negative contribution was a 3.7% fall in other personal service activities in the same period.

Output in consumer-facing services increased by 0.2% in August 2024, following a similar growth of 0.2% in July 2024. Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles was the largest contributor at the industry level, with output rising here by 1.0% (please see our Retail Sales, Great Britain: August 2024 bulletin for more information on this industry's monthly movements). There was also growth of 4.1% in other personal service activities in August 2024, which was the second largest contributor to consumer-facing services in the month, and follows three consecutive monthly declines in this industry. More information on consumer-facing services data is available in our Consumer-Facing Services August 2024 dataset.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in the Index of Services, UK: August 2024 release.

In the three months to August 2024, production output is estimated to have shown no growth when compared with the three months to May 2024. Growths in manufacturing (up 0.5%) and water supply and sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (up 0.3%) were offset by falls in mining and quarrying (down 1.7%) and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (down 1.9%).

On the month, production output is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in August 2024, following a fall of 0.7% in July 2024 (revised up from 0.8% fall in the last publication). Three of the four main sectors in production output saw growth in August 2024, with the largest contribution to the growth being a 1.1% rise in manufacturing. There were also positive contributions from water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, which grew, by 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively. These were partially offset by a fall of 4.0% in mining and quarrying.

Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities output grew by 1.5% in August 2024, following a fall of 1.3% in July 2024. Two of the four industries within the subsector grew in August 2024, with growth of 4.9% in sewerage and 2.8% in water collection, treatment and supply. These were partially offset by falls of 1.9% in waste collection, treatment and disposal activities, and 3.1% in remediation activities and other waste management services.

Electricity, gas steam and air conditioning supply grew by 1.2% in August 2024, following a fall of 1.9% in July 2024, with growth of 1.5% in electric power generation, transmission and distribution, partially offset by a 0.1% fall in the manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam and air conditioning supply.

Mining and quarrying output fell by 4.0% in August 2024, following growth of 3.8% in July 2024. The fall in August 2024 was driven by a 4.2% fall in extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas.

Manufacturing output grew by 1.1% in August 2024, and was the largest contributor to the rise in production output in the month, following a fall of 1.2% in July 2024. Manufacturing output increased in 9 of the 13 manufacturing subsectors in August 2024. The largest positive contribution in August 2024 came from a 2.1% growth in the manufacture of transport equipment, driven by the 3.6% rise in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry. The manufacture of basic metals and metal products industry also contributed positively on the month, with a rise in output of 2.3% in August 2024. Figure 6 shows both the monthly and three-monthly contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing subsectors.

The manufacture of transport equipment was the largest contributor to the manufacturing growth in August 2024. Within this sector the manufacturing of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry drove the monthly rise, but has fallen back slightly (by 0.3% in the three months to August 2024) since the all-time high index in February 2024. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders have reported that car manufacturers' output has decreased since February as factories are adjusted in preparation to make new models. Despite this, the industry remains at a higher level than we have seen in 2022 and most of 2023 after steady growth between September 2022 and February 2024 (Figure 7).

The monthly business survey (MBS) is used for 72.9% of the production sector by industry weight. In August 2024, the turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 82.9%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases, in line with the National Accounts revision policy. For context, the average turnover response rate for the production sector in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 96.9% and 97.7%, respectively. A full set of data sources used in monthly GDP can be found in our data sources catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: August 2024 release.

Construction output is estimated to have grown by 1.0% in the three months to August 2024 compared with the three months to May 2024. New work increased by 1.7% over the period, whereas repair and maintenance showed no growth. Within new work, the largest contributor to the increase came from infrastructure new work, which grew by 2.7%, while in repair and maintenance (R&M) the largest contributor came from non-housing repair and maintenance, which grew by 5.6%.

Monthly construction output is estimated to have increased by 0.4% in August 2024, which follows a fall of 0.4% in July 2024. The growth in monthly output in August 2024 came from an increase in new work (1.6%), while repair and maintenance fell by (1.0%).

Five out of the nine sectors saw increases in August 2024. At the sector level, the main contributors to the monthly construction growth were private new housing, which increased by 3.4%, and private commercial new work, which increased by 2.2%.

Construction data are sourced from our monthly business survey. For August 2024, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 81.2%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 94.7% and 95.1%, respectively.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: August 2024 release.

This release gives data for August 2024 for the first time. It also incorporates revisions for January 1997 to June 2024 in line with the quarterly national accounts published on 30 September 2024.

July 2024 is also open for revisions, taking on updated source data and seasonal adjustment reviews. Table 1 shows the revisions to monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and its main sectors from January 2024 to July 2024 since the last publication on 11 September 2024.

In line with the national accounts revision policy, this release contains data consistent with the UK National Accounts, The Blue Book 2024, which is released on 31 October 2024. This estimates 2022 for the first time using the supply and use tables (SUTs) framework, as well as improving the estimates of 2020 and 2021 based on more recent data. We have also implemented outstanding classification decisions affecting the public sector, as well as improvements to the UK trade gas exports deflator. Additionally, we have updated the base year to 2022 after holding this fixed since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. For more information on these revisions please see our Blue Book 2024: advanced aggregate estimates article.

Revision from January 2023 to June 2024 are a result of updated source data, including the use of Value Added Tax (VAT) data for Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 and updated industry weights as a result of updating the base year from 2019 to 2022. For more information on these revisions please see our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2024 release.

The updated industry weights used in this release can be found in our Gross Value Added industry weights time series dataset.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. While growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our Monthly GDP and main sectors to four decimal places dataset, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

• our Index of Services, UK: August 2024

• our Index of Production, UK: August 2024

• our Construction output in Great Britain: August 2024

The main data source for these statistics is the monthly business survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found below:

• index of Services response rates in our Current and historical Monthly Business Survey (services) response rates dataset

• index of Production response rates in our Monthly Business Survey (production) response rates

• construction response rates in our Output in the construction industry in the construction industry

The Monthly GDP data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ from those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Non-market education output methodology

School attendance data are used as our source to estimate education output by the non-market sector. Education is considered to be provided across the whole year and so school holidays, or school leavers, do not reduce output over the summer. As attendance levels are not available over the summer, the June 2024 value will be carried forward. When data are available for September 2024, the July and August 2024 estimates will be recalculated based on the change in attendance between June and September.

Consumer-facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer-facing services:

• Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Rail transport

• Accommodation

• Food and beverage service activities

• Buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• Veterinary activities

• Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

• Gambling and betting services

• Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

• Activities of membership organisations

• Other personal service activities

• Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

The relationship between intermediate consumption ratios and gross value added by industry

For most industries, our early estimates of gross value added (GVA) use real growth in turnover or volume of output as a proxy for GVA growth. The main assumption this proxy approach makes is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same past the last fully balanced year (currently 2022). Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates. This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption ratio or IC ratio. This is the intermediate consumption of an industry divided by its output.

Consider GVA estimates for 2022 as an example. When the 2023 annual national accounts were published, the last balanced year was 2021. Since then, 2022 GVA estimates were based on the 2021 IC ratio. As part of the 2024 annual national accounts round, we observe the 2022 IC ratio for the first time. We effectively replace a forecast of the 2022 IC ratio (using 2021) with the observed 2022 IC ratio. 

If the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and hence GVA (other things equal) will be lower. We therefore expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate. 

The IC ratio is not the only influence on GVA. If both output and intermediate consumption increase such that the IC ratio is preserved, then GVA increases without the IC ratio changing at all. For this reason, the strength of the association between the IC ratio change and the GVA revision gives an indication of how important this factor was in determining the GVA growth rate revision. 

Further analysis of the relationship between the IC ratio and GVA revision by industry can be found in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2024 release.

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.