GDP monthly estimate, UK: April 2024

• Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have shown no growth in April 2024, following growth of 0.4% in March 2024.

• Real gross domestic product is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in the three months to April 2024 compared with the three months to January 2024.

• Services output grew by 0.2% in April 2024, its fourth consecutive monthly growth, and also grew by 0.9% in the three months to April 2024.

• Production output fell by 0.9% in April 2024 following growth of 0.2% in March 2024, but grew by 0.7% in the three months to April 2024.

• Construction output fell by 1.4% in April 2024, its third consecutive monthly fall, and fell by 2.2% in the three months to April 2024.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in the three months to April 2024, compared with the three months to January 2024. Services output was the main contributor with a growth of 0.9% in this period, while production output rose by 0.7% and construction fell by 2.2%.

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have shown no growth in April 2024, following a growth of 0.4% in March 2024.

There are no periods open for revision in this release. It is important to note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive and negative); please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information.

Services output grew by 0.2% in April 2024, offset by falls in both production output of 0.9% and construction output, which fell by 1.4% in April 2024.

Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in the three months to April 2024 compared with the three months to April 2023, and by 0.6% in April 2024 compared with the same month last year.    

Overall, the services sector is estimated to have grown by 0.9% in the three months to April 2024 compared with the three months to January 2024. There was widespread growth, with output in 11 of the 14 subsectors rising over this period.

Professional, scientific and technical activities was the largest positive contributor to the rise in services output in this three-month period, growing by 1.9% in the three months to April 2024. The next largest contributions came from transportation and storage, which grew by 3.7%, and administrative and support service activities, with output here rising by 2.1%.

On the month, services output is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in April 2024, for its fourth consecutive monthly growth, with 9 of the 14 subsectors showing a rise in output. Figure 3 shows both the monthly and the three-month contributions from the services sector to gross domestic product (GDP) growth in April 2024.

The largest positive contribution at the subsector level in services in April 2024 came from information and communication, which rose by 2.3% in the month. This was driven by growth of 3.2% in computer programming, consultancy and related activities, as well as growth of 1.7% in telecommunications and 4.9% in publishing activities.

Also contributing positively to the month was professional, scientific and technical activities, which grew by 1.2% in April, its third consecutive monthly growth. The growth in April 2024 was mainly caused by a 7.1% rise in scientific research and development, and 5.5% growth in advertising and market research.

Arts, entertainment and recreation also saw growth on the month, up by 2.6%. This was mainly attributed to a 5.1% growth in creative, arts and entertainment activities, and 2.8% growth in sports activities, and amusement and recreation activities.

The largest negative contribution to services growth in April 2024 came from wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, down 2.0%, following growth of 0.9% in March 2024. The subsector saw falls in all three industries, driven by a fall of 2.3% in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles; please see our Retail sales, Great Britain: April 2024 bulletin for more information on this fall.

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our data sources catalogue. The Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 42.9% of the services sector by industry weight. In April 2024, the turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 86.8%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the services sector in 2022 and 2023 now stands at 97.0% and 97.2%, respectively.

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services grew by 0.2% in the three months to April 2024 compared with the three months to January 2024. The main drivers to the growth were a 0.7% rise in output in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, and growth of 2.6% in other personal services. The largest negative contributor was buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental, which fell by 0.8% in the three months to April 2024.

Output in consumer-facing services fell by 0.7% in April 2024, following growth of 0.7% in March 2024. The main driver to this fall was a fall of 2.3% in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles; more information on this industry can be found in our Retail sales, Great Britain: April 2024 bulletin. This was followed by a 1.2% fall in food and beverage service activities. The main offsetting positive movement came from other personal service activities, which grew by 3.0% in April 2024. More information is available in our Consumer-facing services April 2024 dataset.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: April 2024.

Production output is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in the three months to April 2024 compared with the three months to January 2024. This was driven by a 1.0% rise in manufacturing output. Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply also contributed positively with a 0.2% growth in this period, while there were falls of 0.4% in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, and 1.2% in mining and quarrying.

On the month, production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.9% in April 2024, following growth of 0.2% in March 2024. This was driven by a fall of 1.4% in manufacturing, which was partially offset by growths in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (1.3%), mining and quarrying (0.8%), and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (0.5%).

Mining and quarrying output grew by 0.8% in April 2024, following a growth of 1.0% in March 2024. The growth in April 2024 was driven by a 1.2% monthly rise in extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas.

Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply output rose by 0.5% in April 2024, following a fall of 0.9% in March 2024, with growth of 1.7% in the manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam and air conditioning supply industry, and growth of 0.3% in electric power generation, transmission and distribution in the month.

Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities output grew by 1.3% in April 2024. Three of the four industries within the subsector grew in April 2024 with the largest contribution coming from sewerage. Only the water collection, treatment and supply industry fell in April 2024, by 1.3%.

Manufacturing output fell by 1.4% in April 2024 and was the largest contributor to the fall in production output in the month. The largest contribution within manufacturing came from the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, which fell by 6.1% in April 2024, following a growth of 7.6% in March 2024. The next largest positive contribution came from the manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco, which fell by 2.3% in April 2024 following growth of 1.1% in March 2024.

Only 3 of the 13 subsectors within manufacturing contributed positively in April 2024. The largest of these was the manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified (n.e.c), which grew by 1.2% in April 2024. Figure 6 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing subsectors.

In April 2024, the turnover response rate for the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) element of the production sector was 87.5%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases, in line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy. For context, the average turnover response rate for the production sector in 2022 and 2023 now stands at 96.9% and 97.4%, respectively. A full set of data sources used in monthly GDP can be found in our data source catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: April 2024.

Construction output is estimated to have fallen by 2.2% in the three months to April 2024 compared with the three months to January 2024. New work decreased by 2.8% over the period, and repair and maintenance decreased by 1.4%. Within new work, the largest contributor to the decrease in the three months to April 2024 came from private commercial new work, which decreased by 4.7%.

Monthly construction output is estimated to have decreased by 1.4% in April 2024, its third consecutive monthly fall. The decrease in construction output in April 2024 came from decreases in both new work (1.9% fall) and repair and maintenance (0.8% fall).

Seven out of the nine sectors saw a decrease in April 2024. At the sector level, the main contributors to the monthly decrease were private housing new work, which fell by 4.4% in April 2024, and private housing repair and maintenance, which decreased by 2.5% in the month.

Evidence received from returns for the Monthly Business Survey for Construction and Allied Trades (MBS) noted the effects of heavy rainfall and strong winds impacting output in April. The Met Office confirmed in their Monthly climate summary (PDF, 5.89MB) that April 2024 was unsettled and wet, and saw Storm Kathleen arrive at the start of the month.

Construction data are sourced from our Monthly Business Survey. For April 2024, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 75.7%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 94.7% and 94.9%, respectively.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: April 2024.

There were some common themes that were anecdotally reported (as part of the Office for National Statistics monthly surveys) to have played a part in performance across different industries. However, it is difficult to quantify the exact impact.

Comments provided by businesses in the retail trade, except motor vehicles and motorcycles, construction, and food and beverage service activities industries for April 2024 stated their output reduced because of wetter weather. UK overall rainfall in April 2024 was 155% of the long-term average according to the Met Office's Monthly Climate Summary.

The recent decline in construction activity, with April 2024 seeing its third consecutive monthly decline, is also seen in the lack of demand for construction products in the production sector in April 2024. Monthly falls were seen in other mining and quarrying and the manufacture of "cement, lime, plaster and concrete", "glass", "paints and varnishes", "rubber and plastic", "wood" and "iron and steel".

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. While growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our monthly GDP and main sectors to four decimal places dataset, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

• Index of Services, UK: April 2024.

• Index of Production, UK: April 2024.

• Construction output in Great Britain: April 2024.

The main data source for these statistics is the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found at:

• Index of Services response rates

• Index of Production response rates

• Construction response rates

The Monthly GDP data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. However, there are reasons as to why these would not provide the same estimate as to where the economy is relative to its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels. This primarily reflects that the monthly estimate of GDP is based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer-facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer-facing services:

• Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Rail transport

• Accommodation

• Food and beverage service activities

• Buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• Veterinary activities

• Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

• Gambling and betting services

• Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

• Activities of membership organisations

• Other personal service activities

• Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Blue Book 2024 publication update

The UK National Accounts, The Blue Book 2024 scheduled publication on 31 July 2024 has now been moved to the more usual timetable of 31 October 2024 to allow us further time to update the base yearfrom 2019 to 2022 and assure the quality of these granular data. The UK Balance of Payments, The Pink Book: 2024 has also been moved.

This means that Blue Book 2024 consistent data will be included for the first time in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2024 bulletin, published on 30 September 2024. Additionally, a new publication that focuses on Blue Book aggregates up to the end of 2022 will be published at 7am on 7 August 2024. This will give top-level GDP for years and quarters up to 2022 including expenditure and income components. The dataset will be re-referenced and re-based to 2022 equals 100.

These revisions will be included in our GDP monthly estimate, UK: August 2024 bulletin publication on 11 October 2024.

The revision period for the June 2024 quarterly national accounts will now be for Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 only, in line with our standard National Accounts Revisions Policy.

Accredited official statistics

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics (opens in a new tab) and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.