GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: January to March 2025

• UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025, following growth of 0.1% in the previous quarter.

• In output terms, growth in Quarter 1 2025 was driven by an increase of 0.7% in the services sector, production also grew, by 1.1%, while the construction sector showed no growth.

• In expenditure terms, growth in the latest quarter was driven by increases in gross fixed capital formation, net trade and household consumption.

• Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.6% in Quarter 1 2025, mainly driven by an increase in compensation of employees.

• Real GDP per head is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in Quarter 1 2025, following two consecutive quarterly falls.

UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.7% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025 (Figure 1). Real GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.3%, compared with the same quarter a year ago.

Monthly GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in March 2025 because of growth in the services and construction sectors, as shown in our GDP monthly estimate, UK: March 2025 bulletin. This follows an unrevised increase of 0.5% in February 2025 and an unrevised no growth in January 2025.

Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive or negative). Previous analysis shows that the revision between the first quarterly GDP estimate and the same quarterly estimate three years later is typically up to plus or minus 0.2 percentage points, when more detailed information becomes available through the comprehensive annual supply and use balancing process, as the data content increases. For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2024 article. The GDP growth vintages from 2023 onwards are shown in Table 4. We give more information on uncertainty in Section 11: Data sources and quality.

In line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy, no quarterly periods are open to revision in this publication.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in Quarter 1 2025 and is up 0.3%, compared with the same quarter a year ago. See Section 6: Real GDP per head for more information.

Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.6% in Quarter 1 2025, mainly driven by an increase in compensation of employees. Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 5.8%, compared with the same quarter a year ago.

The implied GDP deflator is the broadest measure of inflation in the domestic economy, reflecting changes in the price of all goods and services that make up GDP. The GDP deflator covers the whole of the domestic economy, not just consumer spending. It also reflects the change in the relative price of exports to imports. For more information on the implied GDP deflator, see our Measuring price changes of the UK national accounts: February 2023 article.

The implied price of GDP rose by 0.8% in Quarter 1 2025, mainly driven by higher prices in household consumption. The GDP implied deflator grew by 4.5%, compared with the same quarter a year ago (Figure 2).

Output is estimated to have increased by 0.7% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025, following 0.1% growth in the previous quarter.

The services sector increased by 0.7% in the latest quarter and was the largest contributor to overall output growth. Construction output remained unchanged from the previous quarter, while production increased by 1.1% following consecutive falls in the previous 3 quarters. Early estimates show 14 out of 20 of the subsectors grew across Quarter 1 2025, which is up from 13 in the previous quarter.

Services

Services output increased by 0.7% in the latest quarter, following 0.1% growth in the previous quarter. Services output is estimated to have increased by 1.5%, compared with the same quarter a year ago. Non-consumer-facing services (business-facing services) increased by 0.7% in Quarter 1 2025, while consumer-facing services increased by 0.9%.

In the latest quarter, 10 of the 14 services sectors increased. However, as activities of households as employers has a small weight, this means that 9 out of 14 services subsectors contributed positively to growth to two decimal places. The largest positive contributor to growth was administrative and support service activities, which increased by 3.3%. Within this subsector, 5 of the 6 industries contributed positively to growth.

The second largest positive contribution to growth was from wholesale retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which increased by 1.6%. Within this subsector, all 3 industries contributed positively to growth, including a 1.5% increase in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles. More information can be found in our Retail Sales publication.

The largest negative contributor to growth in Quarter 1 2025 was education, which fell by 0.6%.

Production

The production sector is estimated to have grown by 1.1% in Quarter 1 2025, following falls in the previous three quarters. Production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.2%, compared with the same quarter a year ago.

The growth in production in Quarter 1 2025 was largely driven by a 0.8% increase in manufacturing and a 4.0% increase in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities. Elsewhere, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply increased by 1.8% while mining and quarrying fell by 0.5%.

Manufacturing output grew by 0.8% in Quarter 1 2025, following a 0.6% fall in the previous quarter. Figure 4 shows there were increases in 10 out of 13 manufacturing subsectors in the latest quarter. The largest positive contributions were from the manufacture of transport equipment, which grew by 2.7%, and the manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c, which grew by 3.8%. The growth in transport equipment was largely driven by manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, although this industry remains 5.5% below its level a year ago. This is supported by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT: UK Car Manufacturing & Production Data).

The manufacture of basic metals and metal products fell by 3.0% in the latest quarter, driven by a 3.6% decline in the manufacture of fabricated metal products.

Construction

Construction output is estimated to have shown no growth in Quarter 1 2025, following 0.3% growth in the previous quarter. The level of construction output was 0.9% higher in Quarter 1 2025 compared with the same quarter a year ago.

Further detail on construction output can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: March 2025, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, January to March 2025 bulletin.

Looking at the expenditure approach to measuring gross domestic product (GDP), growth in the latest quarter was driven by increases in gross fixed capital formation, net trade and household consumption (Figure 5).

Household consumption

There was an increase of 0.2% in real household expenditure in Quarter 1 2025 and it is now 0.7% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. Within household consumption, growth was driven by higher spending on household goods and services, miscellaneous and housing.

Net tourism contributed negatively to growth in household consumption in the latest quarter. Net tourism is offset within trade, so there is no impact on the GDP aggregate. Information on how we measure net tourism is provided in our National Accounts articles: Treatment of tourism in the UK National Accounts. Excluding net tourism, domestic consumption grew by 0.4% in the latest quarter.

Consumption of government goods and services

Real government consumption expenditure fell by 0.5% in the latest quarter and is 1.3% higher, compared with the same quarter a year ago. The fall in government consumption in the latest quarter mainly reflects lower expenditure on health and education.

Gross capital formation

Within gross capital formation, early estimates of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) showed a 2.9% increase in Quarter 1 2025 and is now up 4.4% compared with the same quarter a year ago. The increase in the latest quarter was mainly driven by a large increase in transport (mainly because of increased aircraft imports), as well as increases in ICT equipment and other machinery and equipment, and other buildings and structures.

Within GFCF, business investment is estimated to have increased by 5.9% in Quarter 1 2025 and is up 8.1%, compared with the same quarter a year ago.

Excluding the alignment and balancing adjustments, early estimates show that real inventories increased by £6.7 billion in Quarter 1 2025 (Table 2). This was driven by higher stocks in manufacturing.

Net trade

The UK's trade deficit for goods and services was 1.4% of nominal GDP in Quarter 1 2025. However, this includes non-monetary gold and other precious metals, which is an erratic series. It can be useful to exclude this from the trade balance. Excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, the trade deficit was 0.9% of nominal GDP in Quarter 1 2025 estimate (Figure 6).

It is important to note that in the first quarterly estimate of Quarter 1 2025, the International Trade In Services (ITIS) survey figures are forecast using time series data; this forecast is combined with additional data sources to make up trade in services totals. This forecast will be reviewed and replaced at the Quarterly National Accounts using ITIS survey data.

Export volumes increased by 3.5%, following three consecutive quarterly declines. The increase in the latest quarter was mainly driven by a 5.6% increase in goods exports and a 2.0% increase in services exports. The increase in goods exports was mainly caused by rises in exports of material manufactures, whereas growth in services exports was caused by rises in other business services and travel.

Import volumes increased by 2.1% in the latest quarter, driven by increases of 0.6% and 5.2% in goods and services imports, respectively. The increase in goods imports was driven by large movements in non-monetary gold and other precious metals. However, this series also appears within gross capital formation (GCF) as valuables, so the effect is GDP neutral. The increase in services imports were caused by increases in other business services and travel.

Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025 and is up 5.8% compared with the same quarter a year ago. Growth in nominal GDP was mainly driven by increases in compensation of employees (Figure 7).

Compensation of employees increased by 1.4% in the latest quarter and is 7.1% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. Growth in the latest quarter was driven by an increase of 1.6% in wages and salaries, and a 0.4% increase in employers' social contributions.

Early estimates of private sector wages and salaries are based on estimates of the number of employees in the economy from our Labour Force Survey (LFS) and average earnings from our average weekly earnings statistics. However, there is some additional uncertainty around the employees estimates used to derive our figures of wages and salaries because of low response rates in the LFS. We have therefore used additional information from ourEarnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information UK to help improve the accuracy of the income measure of GDP.

Other income

Other income increased by 0.9% in the latest quarter. This was driven by growth in mixed income, from self-employment and rental income, and other gross operating surplus, from households.

Taxes less subsidies

Taxes less subsidies are estimated to have increased by 1.2% in Quarter 1 2025. There was a 1.8% increase in taxes (mainly Value Added Tax), which was partially offset by a 6.5% increase in subsidies, which contribute negatively to GDP.

Gross operating surplus

Total gross operating surplus (GOS) of corporations excluding the alignment adjustment fell by 0.2% in Quarter 1 2025 (Table 3). This is mainly because of a decline in private non-financial corporations.

There is uncertainty around estimates of non-financial corporations within GOS of corporations. This is because we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years. We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).

We produce estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) per head (or per capita), which divides UK GDP by the total UK population. This is one proxy indicator of welfare, rather than production, which reflects a country's living standards. It captures the volume of goods and services available to the average person. Further information on this is available in our Trends in UK real GDP per head: 2022 to 2024 article.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in Quarter 1 2025 (Figure 8) and is up 0.3%, compared with the same quarter a year ago. The population estimates for 2023 onwards are in line with our National population projections: 2022-based bulletin, published on 28 January 2025. The estimates use migration statistics from our Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2024 bulletin.

It is also important to note that early estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) are subject to positive or negative revision, as described in our Why GDP figures are revised article. For more information, please refer to our GDP revision in Blue Book: 2024 article. The GDP growth vintages are shown in Table 4.

In line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy, no quarterly periods are open to revision in this publication.

The three approaches to measuring GDP

There is different data content and quality of the three approaches: the output approach, the expenditure approach and the income approach. This dictates the approach taken in balancing quarterly data. There are more data available on output in the UK in the short term than in the other two approaches. To get the best estimate of GDP (gross domestic product), our published figure, estimates from all three approaches are balanced to produce an average, except in the latest two quarters where the output data take the lead because of the larger data content.

The three approaches to measuring GDP allow us to confront our data sources within the national accounts framework. Figure 9 showed that the three approaches to measuring GDP are closely aligned. However, there can still be uncertainty at the component level at this stage in the production cycle for 2023 and 2024 until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables (SUTs) framework. This uncertainty may be for various reasons and is further discussed in this section.

Output approach

In the output approach, we do not currently have final estimates for intermediate consumption (the value of goods and services purchased to be used up in the production of goods and services). This is outlined in our Blue Book 2024: advanced aggregate estimates release. Initially, we use turnover and output as a proxy for changes in gross value added. We assume that the intermediate consumption ratio by industry, calculated in 2022, holds constant into 2023 onwards. More information on this is provided in Section 11: Data sources and quality of our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2024 bulletin.

Expenditure approach

In the expenditure approach, we currently have lower response rates for areas, such as the Living Costs and Food Survey, which is one of many data sources that inform our estimates of household consumption. We therefore rely on additional indicators, such as our Monthly Business Survey, to quality adjust some of our estimates in the short term.

Income approach

In the income approach, we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years. We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies Quality and Methodology Information (QMI). There is currently more uncertainty around the compensation of employees figures in this release because of lower response rates in our Labour Force Survey (LFS), as described in our LFS: planned improvements and its reintroduction methodology. We have used additional information from our Earnings and employment Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK: January 2025 bulletin to help inform the estimates.

Reaching the GDP balance

Quarterly GDP is a balanced measure of the three approaches. The GDP monthly estimate focuses on gross value added (GVA) and output as a proxy for GDP. This results in data differences, in both levels and growth terms, between our quarterly bulletins (average GDP) and our GDP monthly estimate bulletins (output approach to GDP). Quarterly GDP is the lead measure of GDP because of its higher data content and inclusion of variables, which enable the conversion from a GVA concept to a GDP basis.

Information on the methods we use is in our Balancing the output, income and expenditure approaches to measuring GDP report.

Alignment adjustments, found in Table M of our GDP data tables, have a target limit of plus or minus £3,000 million on any quarter. However, in periods where the data sources are particularly difficult to balance, larger alignment adjustments are sometimes needed, as explained in our Recent challenges of balancing the three approaches of GDP article. Our standard practice is to prefer that the alignment adjustment be out of tolerance rather than over-adjust individual GDP components to achieve a balance. This is most likely to occur in the latest quarter where the constraints are larger, where we must align to the output estimate for the change in GDP, and where the data content is at its lowest.

To achieve a balanced GDP dataset through alignment, we apply balancing adjustments to the components of GDP where data content is particularly weak in each quarter because of a higher level of forecast content. The balancing adjustments applied in this estimate are shown in Table 7. The resulting series should be considered accordingly.

Net trade

Since the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020, the arrangements for how the UK trades with the EU changed. HMRC implemented some data collection changes following Brexit, which affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. We have made adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU in 2021 and 2022 to account for these changes. However, a structural break remains in the full time series for goods imports from and exports to the EU from January 2021.

We advise caution when interpreting and drawing conclusions from these statistics. More detail is in our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: summary of adjustments and the structural break from 2021 article.

Pausing of producer prices publications

Producer prices publications are being paused while work is in progress to improve the systems used to create the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Services Producer Price Indices (SPPI), as explained in our Producer prices publications update. This is because our quality assurance identified a problem with the chain-linking methods used to calculate the PPI and SPPI indices.

Our investigations so far have concluded that the problem affects the period from December 2008 onwards. However, investigations suggest that the main impact on annual producer price inflation rates occurred in 2022 and 2023, because of the large movements in relative prices during that period.

As these detailed price data are used within our GDP calculations, this may lead to impacts on the level of some industries, with revisions to estimates for services, production and construction particularly likely in 2022 and 2023. At an aggregate level for GDP, these revisions should be offsetting to an extent, while taken alongside regular data deliveries. Early indications suggest that there will not be a notable change in the recent economic trends seen in these data, but we will update users once more information becomes available. We do not plan any changes to the publication timetable for monthly, quarterly or annual GDP and will continue to use the current PPI estimates in these publications until updated data are available.

Strengths and limitations

The UK national accounts are drawn together using data from many different sources. This ensures that they are comprehensive and provide different perspectives on the economy, for example, sales by retailers and purchases by households. Further information on measuring GDP can be found in our Guide to the UK National Accounts. More quality and methodology information is available in our GDP QMI.

Seasonal adjustment

The headline estimates of quarterly GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using raw data because seasonal effects dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

The ONS uses the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our quarterly GDP estimates seasonal adjustment is applied at a low level and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output. As part of our quality assurance approach, residual seasonality checks are regularly completed by our time series analysis team on both the directly seasonally adjusted series and also the indirectly derived aggregate time series.

This topic is explored further in our Assessing residual seasonality in published outputs article published 09 May 2025.

Important quality information

There are common pitfalls in interpreting data series. These include:

• expectations of accuracy and reliability in early estimates are often too high

• revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy

• early estimates are often based on incomplete data

Very few statistical revisions arise because of "errors" in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical "error".

Many different approaches can be used to summarise revisions. The section on Accuracy and reliability in our GDP QMI analyses the mean average revision and the mean absolute revision for GDP estimates over data publication iterations.

Accredited official statistics

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by theOffice for Statistics Regulation in October 2016. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".