GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: April to June 2025

• UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025, following an increase of 0.7% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

• GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.2% in Quarter 2 2025, compared with the same quarter a year ago.

• In output terms, growth in the latest quarter was driven by increases of 0.4% in services and 1.2% in construction; while the production sector fell by 0.3%.

• Real GDP per head is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the latest quarter and is up 0.7% compared with the same quarter a year ago.

• There are no revisions to previously published GDP data in this quarterly release, in line with the regular National Accounts Revisions Policy; data revisions up to 2023 will be published in our Blue Book 2025: advanced aggregate estimates release on 19 August, and any additional updates to data from 2024 onwards, will be published in the Quarterly national accounts release on 30 September.

UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025. This shows slowed growth, following growth of 0.7% in the previous quarter (Figure 1). Some activity was brought forward to February and March ahead of changes to stamp duty in April and announced US tariff changes. Monthly GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in June 2025, with growth in all three sectors, as shown in our GDP monthly estimate, UK: June 2025 bulletin. This follows an unrevised fall of 0.1% in May 2025 and an upwardly revised fall of 0.1% in April 2025 (previously a 0.3% fall).

Real GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.2%, compared with the same quarter a year ago.

Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive or negative). Previous analysis shows that the revision between the first quarterly GDP estimate, and the same quarterly estimate three years later is, on average, plus or minus 0.2 percentage points. Revisions are made when more detailed information becomes available through the comprehensive annual supply and use balancing process, as the data content increases. For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2024 article. The GDP growth vintages from 2023 onwards are shown in Table 4. We give more information on uncertainty in Section 11: Data sources and quality.

In line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy, no periods for GDP are open to revision in this release. Our upcoming Blue Book 2025: advanced aggregate estimates release on 19 August will include the pre-announced revisions to nominal and real GDP annual and quarterly growth up to 2023. Any revisions will be fully incorporated into the Quarterly national accounts release, covering up to Quarter 2 2025, which will be published on 30 September 2024.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in Quarter 2 2025, and is up 0.7%, compared with the same quarter a year ago. Consistent with the National Accounts Revision policy, the population estimates from 2011 onwards have been updated to reflect the latest mid-year estimate publication on 30 July 2025. See Section 6: Real GDP per head for more information.

Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.8% in Quarter 2 2025, and is now 5.3% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.

The implied GDP deflator is the broadest measure of inflation in the domestic economy, reflecting changes in the price of all goods and services that make up GDP. The GDP deflator covers the whole of the domestic economy, not just consumer spending. It also reflects the change in the relative price of exports to imports. For more information on the implied GDP deflator, see our Measuring price changes of the UK national accounts: February 2023 article.

The implied price of GDP continued to slow, with an increase of 0.4% in Quarter 2 2025, which is the lowest quarterly growth since Quarter 4 2023. This followed a 0.8% rise in Quarter 1 2025.    

The GDP implied deflator grew by 4.1%, compared with the same quarter a year ago (Figure 2).

Output is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025. This shows slowed growth, following growth of 0.7% in the previous quarter. Some activity was brought forward to February and March ahead of changes to stamp duty in April and announced US tariff changes. Overall, 11 out of 20 of the subsectors increased, with the services sector growing by 0.4%. Construction output increased by 1.2%, while production fell by 0.3%.

Services

Services output increased by 0.4% in the latest quarter, following growth of 0.7% in the previous quarter. Services output is estimated to be 1.2% higher, compared with the same quarter a year ago. Non-consumer-facing services (business-facing services) increased by 0.4% in Quarter 2 2025, while consumer-facing services increased by 0.3%.

Figure 3 shows 8 of the 14 services sectors contributed positively to growth. The largest positive contributor to growth was information and communication, which increased by 2.0%. Within this subsector, the largest contributor was from computer programming, consultancy and related activities, which grew by 4.1%.

The second largest positive contribution to growth was human health and social work activities, which increased by 1.1%. This was mainly because of non-market health, which is discussed further in the expenditure section.

The largest negative contributor to growth in Quarter 2 2025 was wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which fell by 0.9%. This was mainly because of a decline in wholesale trade, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles, which fell by 2.4%.

More detail on services can be found in our Index of Services, UK: June 2025 bulletin.

Production

The production sector is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in the latest quarter, following a 1.3% increase in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025. Production output is estimated to be 0.3% higher, compared with the same quarter a year ago.

The fall in production in Quarter 2 2025 was caused by declines of 6.8% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, and 0.3% in mining and quarrying. Elsewhere, there was an increase of 2.1% in water supply; sewerage, and waste management and remediation activities.

In addition, manufacturing output grew by 0.3% in Quarter 2 2025, following growth of 1.1% in Quarter 1 2025, and is now 1.0% higher, compared with the same quarter a year ago. Figure 4 shows there were increases in 5 out of 13 manufacturing subsectors in the latest quarter. The largest positive contributions were from the manufacture of pharmaceuticals, which grew by 7.0%, and the manufacture of machinery and equipment, which grew by 3.0%.

Further detail on production can be found in our Index of Production, UK: June 2025 bulletin.

Construction

Construction output is estimated to have grown by 1.2% in Quarter 2 2025, compared with 0.3% in Quarter 1. This is 2.2% higher than the same quarter a year ago. New work increased by 1.1% over the period, and repair and maintenance grew by 1.4%. Within new work, the largest positive contributor came from infrastructure new work, which grew by 3.2%. In repair and maintenance (R&M) the largest positive contributor came from private housing R&M, which grew by 3.3%.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: June 2025, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, April to June 2025.

Expenditure is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025, which was mainly driven by increases in government consumption and gross capital formation: other (Figure 5). Within gross capital formation, there were increases in change in valuables, change in inventories and the expenditure alignment adjustment.

Household final consumption expenditure

There was an increase of 0.1% in real household final consumption expenditure in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025 and it is now 1.1% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. Within household consumption, growth was driven by miscellaneous goods and services, transport, clothing and footwear and housing.

Net tourism contributed negatively to growth in household consumption in the latest quarter. Net tourism is offset within trade, so there is no impact on the GDP aggregate. Information on how we measure net tourism is provided in our National Accounts articles: Treatment of tourism in the UK National Accounts article. Excluding net tourism, domestic consumption grew by 0.5% in the latest quarter.

Consumption of government goods and services

Real government consumption expenditure grew by 1.2% in the latest quarter and is 1.7% higher, compared with the same quarter a year ago. The growth in government consumption in the latest quarter mainly reflects higher expenditure on health (in particular on vaccinations) and public administration and defence.

Gross capital formation

Within gross capital formation, early estimates of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) showed a 1.1% fall in Quarter 2 2025, following a 2.0% increase in the previous quarter. GFCF is now up 1.3% compared with the same quarter a year ago. The fall in the latest quarter was mainly driven by transport, as well as declines in other machinery and equipment, and other buildings and structures.

Within GFCF, business investment is estimated to have fallen by 4.0% in Quarter 2 2025, following a 3.9% increase in the previous quarter.

Excluding the alignment adjustments, early estimates show that real inventories increased by £3.6 billion in Quarter 2 2025, which is less than the £7.0 billion increase in inventories seen in the first quarter of 2025 (Table 2). This was driven by higher stocks in manufacturing, specifically work in progress, and material, stores and fuel inventories.

Net trade

The UK's trade deficit for goods and services was 1.9% of nominal GDP in Quarter 2 2025. However, this includes non-monetary gold and other precious metals, which is an erratic series. It can be useful to exclude this from the trade balance. Excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, the trade deficit was 1.2% of nominal GDP in Quarter 2 2025.

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) have made revisions to imports and exports of Chapter 84 Mechanical Appliances from August 2024 to May 2025, following an in-depth quality assurance review. Further detail will be available in the HMRC Overseas Trade in Goods Statistics (OTS) release from 9.30am on 14 August.

These revisions affect 71MI Mechanical power generators (Intermediate) in the Office for National Statistics's (ONS's) UK trade data. In accordance with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, estimates have been revised for April and May 2025. The impact of this revision on net trade in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025 was an increase of £1.4 billion.

Revisions for the period August 2024 to March 2025 will be applied in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2025 release on 30 September 2025 and our Blue Book 2025 publication. There will be a discontinuity in the trade in goods series included within Quarterly National Accounts until these data are revised. We therefore advise caution when interpreting these data.

Export volumes increased for the second consecutive quarter, with growth of 1.6% Quarter 2 2025, and is now 3.0% higher, compared with the same quarter a year ago. The increase in the latest quarter was mainly driven by a 3.0% increase in services exports, which offset a 0.2% fall in goods exports. The increase in services exports was caused by rises in other business services and transportation, whereas the fall in goods exports was mainly caused by material manufactures.

Import volumes increased by 1.4% in the latest quarter and is now 3.3% higher, compared with the same quarter a year ago. The rise in the latest quarter was driven by an increase of 2.3% in goods imports, which offset a 0.3% fall in services imports. The increase in goods imports was driven by machinery and transport equipment, whereas the fall in services imports was mainly because of travel services.

Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.8% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025 and is up 5.3%, compared with the same quarter a year ago. Growth in nominal GDP was mainly driven by increases in compensation of employees (Figure 6).

Compensation of employees

Compensation of employees increased by 1.3% in the latest quarter, with increases of 0.9% in wages and salaries, and 3.5% in employers' social contributions.

Early estimates of private sector wages and salaries are based on estimates of the number of employees in the economy from our Labour Force Survey (LFS) and average earnings from our average weekly earnings statistics. However, there is some additional uncertainty around the employee estimates used to derive our figures of wages and salaries, because of low response rates in the LFS. We have therefore used additional information from our Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information UK bulletin to help improve the accuracy of the income measure of GDP.

Other income

Other income increased by 0.6% in the latest quarter and is up 5.7%, compared with the same quarter a year ago. This was driven by growth in other gross operating surplus and mixed income, in particular from rental income and self-employment.

Taxes less subsidies

Taxes less subsidies are estimated to have increased by 0.1% in Quarter 2 2025, following growth of 3.4% in the previous quarter. There was a 0.5% fall in taxes (mainly UK Emissions Trading Scheme as well as weaker VAT receipts), which was offset by a 5.6% decrease in subsidies, which contribute positively to GDP.

Gross operating surplus

Total gross operating surplus (GOS) of corporations, excluding the alignment adjustment, grew by 0.4% in Quarter 2 2025 (Table 3). This is mainly because of increases in private non-financial corporations and financial corporations.

There is uncertainty around estimates of non-financial corporations within the GOS of corporations. This is because we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available after approximately two years. We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).

We produce estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) per head (or per capita), which divides UK GDP by the total UK population. This is one proxy indicator of welfare, rather than production, which reflects a country's living standards. It captures the volume of goods and services available to the average person. Further information on this is available in our Trends in UK real GDP per head: 2022 to 2024 article.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in Quarter 2 2025 (Figure 7) and is up 0.7%, compared with the same quarter a year ago. There are some small revisions to the £ million values of real GDP from 2011 onwards (see our UK resident population mid-year estimates - real-time database), which reflect updated population estimates in line with the latest mid-year estimate publication on 30 July 2025. However, this has not changed the majority of growth rates, as shown in Figure 7.

Early estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) are subject to positive or negative revision, as described in our Why GDP figures are revised article. For more information, please refer to our GDP revision in Blue Book: 2024 article. The GDP growth vintages are shown in Table 4.

In line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy, no periods for GDP are open to revision in this release.

The three approaches to measuring GDP

There are three approaches to measuring gross domestic product (GDP): the output approach, the expenditure approach and the income approach. The data and data quality are different for each approach, and this dictates the approach taken in balancing quarterly data. There are more data available on output in the UK in the short term than in the other two approaches. To get the best estimate of GDP, our published figure, estimates from all three approaches are balanced to produce an average, except in the latest two quarters where the output data take the lead, because of the larger data content.

The three approaches to measuring GDP allow us to confront our data sources within the national accounts framework. Figure 8 shows that the three approaches to measuring GDP are closely aligned. However, there can still be uncertainty at the component level, at this stage in the production cycle for 2023 and 2024, until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables (SUTs) framework. This uncertainty may be for various reasons and is further discussed in this section.

Output approach

In the output approach, we do not currently have final estimates for intermediate consumption (the value of goods and services purchased to be used up in the production of goods and services). This is outlined in our Blue Book 2024: advanced aggregate estimates article. Initially, we use turnover and output as a proxy for changes in gross value added. We assume that the intermediate consumption ratio by industry, calculated in 2022, holds constant into 2023 onwards. More information on this is provided in Section 11: Data sources and quality of our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2024 bulletin.

Expenditure approach

In the expenditure approach, we currently have lower response rates for areas, such as the Living Costs and Food Survey, which is one of many data sources that inform our estimates of household consumption. We therefore rely on additional indicators, such as our Monthly Business Survey, to quality adjust some of our estimates in the short term.

Income approach

In the income approach, we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available after approximately two years. We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies Quality and Methodology Information (QMI). There is currently more uncertainty around the compensation of employees figures in this release because of lower response rates in our Labour Force Survey (LFS), as described in our LFS: planned improvements and its reintroduction methodology. We have used additional information from our Earnings and employment Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK: January 2025 bulletin to help inform the estimates.

Reaching the GDP balance

Quarterly GDP is a balanced measure of the three approaches. The GDP monthly estimate focuses on gross value added (GVA) and output as a proxy for GDP. This results in data differences, in both levels and growth terms, between our quarterly bulletins (average GDP) and our GDP monthly estimate bulletins (output approach to GDP). Quarterly GDP is the lead measure of GDP because of its higher data content and inclusion of variables, which enable the conversion from a GVA concept to a GDP basis.

Information on the methods we use is in our Balancing the output, income and expenditure approaches to measuring GDP report.

Alignment adjustments, found in Table M of our GDP data tables, have a target limit of plus or minus £3,000 million on any quarter. However, in periods where the data sources are particularly difficult to balance, larger alignment adjustments are sometimes needed, as explained in our Recent challenges of balancing the three approaches of GDP article. Our standard practice is to prefer that the alignment adjustment be out of tolerance rather than over-adjust individual GDP components to achieve a balance. This is most likely to occur in the latest quarter, where the constraints are larger, and where we must align to the output estimate for the change in GDP, and where the data content is at its lowest.

To achieve a balanced GDP dataset through alignment, we apply balancing adjustments to the components of GDP where data content is particularly weak in each quarter because of a higher level of forecast content. No balancing adjustments have been applied in this estimate of GDP for Quarter 2 2025.

Net trade

Since the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020, the arrangements for how the UK trades with the EU changed. HM Revenue and Customs implemented some data collection changes following Brexit, which affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. We have made adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU in 2021 and 2022 to account for these changes. However, a structural break remains in the full time series for goods imports from, and exports to, the EU from January 2021.

We advise caution when interpreting and drawing conclusions from these statistics. There is more detail is in our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: summary of adjustments and the structural break from 2021 article.

International Trade in Services estimates

From September 2025 until early 2027, International Trade in Services (ITIS) data (which account for approximately 50% of total Trade in Services) will be processed once in each quarterly period. During this period, the data will be based on a survey response rate of between approximately 60 and 70%. This will enable more focus on improving processing systems and ensuring methods and quality in the future. Users should be aware that until September 2025, when estimates will be revised in line with the National Accounts revisions policy, ITIS-based estimates for periods between Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025 are based on forecasts. Meanwhile, ITIS-based data in Trade in Services estimates at first quarterly estimate will be forecast until early 2027.

The International Passenger Survey (IPS), which is the source of travel services estimates (accounting for approximately 8% of total trade), is being transformed as part of our Improving our travel and tourism statistics project, and travel services estimates have been forecast since Quarter 1 2024. In our September 2025 quarterly national accounts release, we will update Quarters 1 and 2 2024 to be based on survey data. For later periods, estimates will be forecast during the period of the Travel and tourism transformation.

Pausing of producer prices publications

Business prices data with corrected chain linking methods have been used in the quarterly GDP dataset for producer price indices (PPI), import prices indices (IPI) and export price indices (EPI) from January 2025 onwards.

Correctly chain linked service producer price indices have been included in our quarterly and monthly GDP datasets from April 2025 onwards. The quarterly service producer price indices (SPPI) estimates are splined to months for use in monthly GDP calculations.

In addition, the construction output price indices calculated using the corrected PPI and SPPI data have been used from April 2025 onwards in these datasets.

The full implementation of updated business prices data will be managed in line with the national accounts revision policy with the full time series update being included in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2025 release on 30 September 2025 and our Blue Book 2025 publication.

Further information on the chain linking error in the producer prices dataset are detailed in our Methods update for Producer Price Indices (PPI) and Service Produce Prices Indices (SPPI) published on 10 July 2025.

Strengths and limitations

The UK National Accounts are drawn together using data from many different sources. This ensures that they are comprehensive and provide different perspectives on the economy, for example, sales by retailers and purchases by households. Further information on measuring GDP can be found in our Guide to the UK National Accounts. More quality and methodology information is available in our GDP quality and methodology information (QMI).

Seasonal adjustment

The headline estimates of quarterly GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, like many data time series, are difficult to analyse using raw data because seasonal effects dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) uses the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our Seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our quarterly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at a low level and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output. As part of our quality assurance approach, residual seasonality checks are regularly completed by our time series analysis team on both the directly seasonally adjusted series and also the indirectly derived aggregate time series.

This topic is explored further in Section 5 of our Assessing residual seasonality in published outputs article published 9 May 2025.

Important quality information

There are common pitfalls in interpreting data series. These include:

• expectations of accuracy and reliability in early estimates are often too high

• revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy

• early estimates are often based on incomplete data

Very few statistical revisions arise because of "errors" in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical "error".

Many different approaches can be used to summarise revisions. The section on Accuracy and reliability in our GDP QMI analyses the mean average revision and the mean absolute revision for GDP estimates over data publication iterations.

Accredited official statistics

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in October 2016. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".