EU Government Deficit and Debt Return including Maastricht Supplementary Data Tables: Quarter 2 (April to June) 2015

• General government net borrowing (or deficit) was £93.5 billion in the financial year ending March 2015 (5.1% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)), a decrease of £9.6 billion compared with the financial year ending March 2014

• General government gross debt was £1,601 billion at the end of the financial year ending March 2015 (87.5% of GDP), an increase of £79.3 billion compared to the end of the financial year ending March 2014

• This release is fully consistent with the latest data transmission on UK deficit (or net borrowing) and debt that the UK and other European Union (EU) member states are required to report quarterly to the European Commission

• The figures for 1997 onwards in this statistical bulletin are fully consistent with the data published in the Public Sector Finances statistical bulletin of 22 September 2015

The EU Government Deficit and Debt statistical bulletin is published quarterly in January, April, July and October each year, to coincide with when the UK and other European Union (EU) member states are required to report on their deficit (or net borrowing) and debt to the European Commission.

Article 126 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (EU) obliges member states to avoid excessive budgetary deficits. The Protocol on the Excessive Deficit Procedure, annexed to the Maastricht Treaty, defines two criteria and reference values with which member states’ governments should comply. These are:

• a deficit (net borrowing) to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio of 3%

• a debt to GDP ratio of 60%

The deficit is a measure of how much the government has to borrow to cover its expenditure once revenue has been netted off, for this reason it is also known as net borrowing. The monetary values quoted are in current prices, that is, they represent the price of borrowing in the year to which they relate without any adjustments for inflation. Thus for comparisons over time the figures as a percentage of GDP (also measured in current prices) are used to provide a comparable time series.

The source data, and therefore the debt and deficit figures published in this bulletin (for the time period 1997 onwards), are the same as those published in the Public Sector Finances, August 2015 statistical bulletin published on 22 September 2015. Although the Public Sector Finances bulletin now includes general government (or Maastricht) debt and deficit figures there are two main differences between the main borrowing and debt measures published in the Public Sector Finances and the deficit and debt figures published in this bulletin:

1. this bulletin includes only debt and deficit recorded to central and local government, whereas the UK Public Sector Finances’ measures also include the debt and deficit of other public sector bodies

2. this bulletin reports gross debt, that is, the financial liabilities of central and local government, whereas the Public Sector Finances’ headline measure is net debt, that is the financial liabilities minus liquid assets (that is, official reserve assets and other cash or cash-like assets)

This section provides the latest headline data for deficit (net borrowing) and debt, and supporting information.

The Public Sector Finances, August 2015 statistical bulletin published estimates for the headline measures of general government net borrowing and general government gross debt on 22 September 2015. This bulletin provides further information of these estimates and presents them in the context of the European Union (EU) requirements.

Table 1 shows the headline measures on a financial year and calendar year basis both as £ billion values and as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

General government net borrowing

In the financial year ending March 2015, the UK government deficit (net borrowing) was £93.5 billion (5.1% of GDP). This represents a decrease of £9.6 billion since the financial year ending March 2014, and is the lowest value since the financial year ending March 2008 when it was £45.8 billion (3.1% of GDP).

The financial year ending 2015 is the fifth annual reduction in net borrowing as a proportion of GDP since the financial year ending March 2010 when it was 10.8%. However, the deficit remains above the Maastricht reference value of 3.0%.

In the calendar year 2014, the UK government deficit (net borrowing) was £103.5 billion (5.7% of GDP). This represents an increase of £5.4 billion since 2013. However, cash transfers from the Asset Purchase Facility reduced the deficit by £18.6 billion in 2013 and only £8.7 billion in 2014. If these cash transfers are excluded then the deficit in the calendar year 2014 was £4.5 billion lower than 2013.

The long-term general government net borrowing as a percentage of GDP is illustrated in Figure 1.

Figure 1: General government net borrowing (‘deficit’) as a percentage of GDP

Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

1. GDP = Gross Domestic Product
2. 2014/15 refers to the financial year ending March 2015

General government gross debt

At the end of the financial year ending March 2015, UK government gross debt was £1,600.9 billion (87.5% of GDP). As a proportion of GDP, this is the 12th consecutive annual increase. The general government gross debt first exceeded the 60% Maastricht (Excessive Deficit) reference value in the financial year ending March 2010 when it was £1,074.0 billion (71.4% of GDP).

At the end of the calendar year 2014, UK government gross debt was £1,602.4 billion (88.2% of GDP). This represents an increase of £106.2 billion since the end of 2013.

The long-term general government gross debt as a percentage of GDP is illustrated in Figure 2.

Figure 2: General government gross debt as a percentage of GDP

Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

1. GDP = Gross Domestic Product
2. 2014/15 refers to the financial year ending March 2015

This release reflects a number of methodological changes including those made for the 2015 annual national accounts publication (Blue Book 2015). The article Methodological Improvements to National Accounts for Blue Book 2015: Classifications outlines the national accounts changes. Many of these changes have previously been implemented in the EU government deficit and debt returns but two changes are reflected here for the first time:

Transport for London

Some of the subsidiaries of Transport for London (TfL) have been reclassified from the public corporation sector into local government, and therefore are now contributing to general government measures of deficit (net borrowing) and debt. The impact on net borrowing varies but is a reduction of £0.5bn in the calendar year 2014, and the impact on gross debt is and increase in the region of £0.5bn since the calendar year 2010.

Road life length

A methodological change in the treatment of depreciation of roads (related to a decrease in the life length used to estimate depreciation) increases both central and local government depreciation every year since 1997 but has no impact on net borrowing.

In addition to these methodological changes, recent events which impact on the reported government deficit and debt include:

Foreign exchange trading fines

A number of UK banks were fined in November 2014 by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) for failures in their foreign currency operations. The fines amounted to £1.1 billion and these are included in government receipts, and have a negative effect on the deficit (net borrowing) in the financial year ending March 2015.

Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Fund

The Chancellor announced on 9 November 2012 that it had been agreed with the Bank of England to transfer to the Exchequer the excess cash in the Asset Purchase Facility Fund. In line with European guidance (from Eurostat) the amount of cash that reduces net borrowing is limited by the entrepreneurial income earned by the Bank of England in the previous year.

In the financial year ending March 2015, there was a £10.7 billion transfer from the Asset Purchase Facility to HM Treasury, all of which affected net borrowing.

In the financial year ending March 2014, there was a £31.1 billion transfer from the Asset Purchase Facility to HM Treasury. The Bank of England entrepreneurial income for the financial year ending 2014 was calculated as £12.8 billion, and this is the amount of Bank of England dividend payments that impacted on net borrowing (although only £12.2 billion of the dividend payments related to the Asset Purchase Facility).

Lloyds Banking Group

On 17 September 2013 the UK government began selling part of its share holding in Lloyds Banking Group. The sale of the shares does not directly impact on general government net borrowing or general government gross debt because it is purely a financial transaction exchanging equity for cash.

The cash received from the September 2013 sale of the government’s 6% stake (at 75p a share) was £3.2 billion.

A further sale was held on 23 to 24 March 2014 of a 7.5% stake, which raised £4.2 billion.

Following the March 2014 sale of shares, Lloyds Banking Group was reclassified from being a public financial corporation to a private financial corporation.

Between December 2014 and March 2015, small ongoing sales of shares have raised a further combined £1.7 billion.

Share Sales in the second quarter of 2015

Although outside of the financial year ending March 2015, further share sales have occurred in the second quarter of 2015 (between April and June). These are as follows:

• The sale of the government’s 40% stake in the cross-Channel train operator Eurostar raised £757 million

• The sale of half of the government’s retained shareholding in Royal Mail (a 15% stake) raised £750 million

• The ongoing sale of shares in Lloyds Banking group has raised a total of £3.4 billion between April and June 2015

Under the Excessive Deficit Procedure all European Union (EU) member states report their latest detailed deficit and debt information to the European Commission twice a year. Supporting statistical information, including deficit and debt values, are reported quarterly. Both the biannual and quarterly returns are published by Eurostat (the European statistical agency) on their website. The headline deficit and debt figures in this statistical bulletin will be published by Eurostat on 21 October 2015 and the supporting statistical information will be published by Eurostat on 23 October 2015.

The tables in this bulletin present the UK government debt and deficit position at the end of both the financial and calendar years. The United Kingdom, uniquely within the European Union, is assessed against the deficit and debt on a UK financial year basis (that is, April to March). In June 2015, the UK provided to Eurostat first estimates for the financial year ending 2015 and revised estimates for the calendar year 2014 (originally reported in March 2015); in September 2015 the UK provided revised estimates for both financial and calendar years.

The UK figures may be compared with those of other EU member states on the Government Finance Statistics section of the Eurostat website.

The latest UK government deficit and debt figures exceed the reference values set out in the Protocol on the Excessive Deficit Procedure. According to the last deficit and debt figures published on 21 July 2015, 12 member states had a deficit exceeding the 3% of GDP reference value in 2014, and 16 member states had gross debts exceeding the 60% of GDP reference value as at the end of 2014.

While the main statistics provided to Eurostat are those of general government consolidated gross debt and general government net borrowing (or deficit), supplementary government finance statistics are also supplied by member states. A full set of government finance tables provided by the UK to Eurostat in September 2015 are included in this release.

Table M8R presents the revisions to main aggregates since the last publication of the EU Government Deficit and Debt Return in July 2015. Revisions to the data are consistent with revisions incorporated within the Public Sector Finances statistical bulletin.

Government debt

Debt revisions are predominantly a result of the reclassification for Transport for London (see ‘Recent events and methodlogical changes’ section). This release also includes for the first time data on two new types of government bonds introduced in 2014; Soveriegn Sukuk (Islamic bonds) and Renminbi (Chinese currency) bonds. Capturing data on these bonds has caused an upwards revision of general government debt of £0.5bn at the end of 2014.

Government deficit

As with debt, deficit revisions are largely a result of the reclassification for Transport for London. Other revisions are predominantly due to updated data sources.

Main methodological changes and recent events that affect data movements are described under “Recent events and methodological changes”.

There are nine tables included as part of this bulletin. Most tables extend back to the financial year ending March 1993 in financial years, and 1992 in calendar years. However, Table M7 extends back to 1995 and Tables M5, M6 and M9 only cover more recent periods.

All values in the tables are at current prices and are not seasonally adjusted. The debt figures are at nominal value. That is, the debt is valued at the face value of the debt, which is what the government will be liable to pay, and not the market value of the debt.

Table M1 shows the general government deficit and debt (in £ million and as a percentage of GDP)

Table M2 shows the general government debt by financial instrument (in £ million)

Table M3 shows transactions (or changes) in general government debt by financial instrument (in £ million)

Table M4 shows how the deficit can be reconciled with the changes in gross debt (in £ million)

Table M5 shows how the unconsolidated financial liabilities of central government and local government are consolidated to arrive at general government consolidated gross debt (in £ million)

Table M6 shows how the unconsolidated transactions (or changes) in financial liabilities of central government and local government are consolidated to arrive at consolidated transactions in general government gross debt (in £ million)

Table M7 shows how general government net borrowing (or deficit) is consistent with the general government net borrowing reported in the Public Sector Finances, August 2015 statistical bulletin published on 22 September 2015 (in £ million and as a percentage of GDP). The implementation of ESA 2010 in September 2014 has resulted in both outputs having comparable numbers from 1997 onwards and so Table M7 no longer shows the reconciliation between the two measures of net borrowing.

Table M8R shows revisions in deficit and debt between the figures published in this bulletin and those published in the last bulletin in July 2015 (in £ million and as a percentage of GDP).

Table M9 relates to government activities undertaken to support financial institutions during the financial crisis. It does not include wider economic stimulus packages. The table is presented in two parts:

Part 1 shows the impact on government deficit from both the expenditure undertaken by government and the revenue received as part of these support measures.

Part 2 shows the impact on the government balance sheet from the support measures. Part 2 also includes estimates of the contingent liabilities that government is exposed to through the activities undertaken to support financial institutions. All figures are in £ million.

In addition, the Maastricht supplementary tables are included within this release. Information on these tables can be found within Annex B.

The tables in this release are copies of the data supplied to Eurostat in October 2015.

In all tables the Eurostat convention for recording missing values is used. This convention uses “M” when something is not applicable or the requested data does not exist, and “L when the requested data is not available or the data exists but has not been collected/recorded.

All tables cover UK general government, that is UK central government and local government. The ESA tables 2, 25, 27, 28 are published four times a year (in January, April, July and October). The EDP tables are published twice a year (in April and October). ESA Table(s) 11 is published once a year (in April). ESA Table 9 and the ESA Questionnaire (National Tax List) are published once a year (in April), and ESA Table 9 and the ESA Questionnaire (National Tax List) are published once a year (in October). All table valuations are in current prices.

Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) calendar year and financial year main tables

The EDP Financial Year (747 Kb Excel sheet) and Calendar Year (745.5 Kb Excel sheet) Main tables report annually on UK government deficit and debt Levels. The time series covered for the calendar years is 2011 to 2014 and for the financial years from 2011/12 to 2014/15.

The definitions of deficit and debt are those defined by the Maastricht Treaty Annex and the EU Stability and Growth Pact. These state that:

government deficit is general government net borrowing (calculated as current expenditure plus net investment minus current revenue)

government debt is general government gross consolidated debt at nominal value.

Sub-component tables;

EDP Table 1 reports government deficit or surplus by government sector and debt levels by financial liability category

EDP Tables 2A to 2D show the adjustments that must be made to transform the working balances for each government sub-sector (that is, net borrowing as published in the Public Sector Finances statistical bulletin) into the deficit as defined under the Maastricht Treaty

EDP Tables 3A to 3E show how the deficit for the consolidated general government and each sub-sector reconciles with the change in government gross debt

EDP Table 4 contains further memoranda data items requested by Eurostat.

European System of Accounts (ESA) Table 2 Main Aggregates of General Government

ESA Table 2 (4.85 Mb Excel sheet) is a complete set of annual (calendar years) non-financial accounts for the time series 1990 to 2014 of the general government sector, compiled according to ESA 2010. Table 2 provides a breakdown of general government expenditure (both current and capital) and general government revenue. The table uses ESA 2010 codes to identify the different transactions with “OTE” representing the total general government expenditure and “OTR” representing the total general government revenue. The table also shows the general government net borrowing (B.9) which is the difference between total revenue and total expenditure. The data is an annual presentation of the quarterly general government data in ESA Table 25.

European System of Accounts (ESA) Table 25 Quarterly Non-Financial Accounts of General Government

ESA Table 25 (13.39 Mb Excel sheet) is a complete set of quarterly non-financial accounts for the time series Quarter 1 1987 to Quarter 2 2015 of the general government sector, compiled according to ESA 2010. Table 25 provides a breakdown of general government expenditure (both current and capital) and general government revenue. This table shows the general government net borrowing (B.9) which is the difference between total revenue and total expenditure. The data is a quarterly presentation of the annual general government data in ESA Table 2.

European System of Accounts (ESA) Table 27 Quarterly Financial Accounts of General Government

ESA table 27 (19.45 Mb Excel sheet) (also known as QFAGG - quarterly financial accounts of general government) is a complete set of quarterly financial accounts for the time series Quarter 1 1987 to Quarter 2 2015 of the general government sector and its sub-sectors, compiled according to ESA 2010. The table deals with both financial transactions and the financial balance sheets. Data are consolidated within each sub-sector and are available both consolidated and unconsolidated at the general government level.

European System of Accounts (ESA) Table 28 Quarterly Government Debt (Maastricht Debt) for General Government

ESA Table 28 (1.09 Mb Excel sheet) shows government debt on a quarterly basis for the time series Quarter 1 2000 to Quarter 2 2015, for general government and its sub-sectors, compiled according to ESA 2010. The table provides a breakdown of all debt instruments that are relevant in the EDP reporting of “Maastricht Debt”. These instruments are categorised under ESA 2010 as F.2 (cash and deposits), F.33 (securities other than shares) and F.4 (loans). Data are consolidated within each sub-sector and at the general government level; that is any debt liabilities of government which are held as assets by another part of government are removed.

European System of Accounts (ESA) Table 9 Detailed tax and social contribution receipts by type of tax or social contribution and receiving subsector

ESA Table 9 (118.5 Kb Excel sheet) shows tax receipts on an annual basis for the time series 1995 to 2014, for general government and its sub-sectors, compiled according to ESA 2010. The table provides a breakdown of receipts for the different types of tax and social contributions.

European System of Accounts (ESA) Questionnaire on the detailed list of taxes and social contributions according to national classification

Otherwise known as the National Tax List (538 Kb Excel sheet) or NTL, this table shows a complete list taxes and social contributions received by general government and its sub-sectors, compiled according to ESA 2010. Data are provided for the time series 1995 to 2014 and are consistent with ESA Table 9 as well as receipts data used in the compilation of the non-financial accounts.

Associated publications: Public Sector Finances, August 2015

• net borrowing - measures the gap between revenue raised (current receipts) and total spending (current expenditure plus net investment); a positive value indicates borrowing (also known as a deficit) while a negative value indicates a surplus

• gross debt - is a measure of how much the government owes at a point in time

• gross domestic product (GDP) - a measure of the total economic activity in a country or region. Therefore a country’s gross debt, represented as a proportion of their GDP, can be thought of as a measurement of that country’s ability to pay back its debt

• asset purchase facility fund – an arm of the Bank of England able to purchase financial assets including government securities (gilts). The APF has earned interest which is periodically transferred back to central government

• Maastricht deficit - general government net borrowing as defined within the Maastricht Treaty and Stability and Growth Pact (and as supplied to Eurostat)

• Maastricht debt - general government gross debt as defined within the Maastricht Treaty and Stability and Growth Pact (and as supplied to Eurostat)

• public sector net borrowing (PSNB ex) – includes central government, local government, public corporations and Bank of England but excludes public sector banks

• public sector net debt (PSND ex) – includes central government, local government, public sector corporations and Bank of England but excludes public sector banks

The public sector finances can be complex. In order to make sure these important statistics are accessible to all we need users to provide us with feedback on how best to explain concepts and trends in the data. Please contact us at: psa@ons.gov.uk.