Index of Production, UK: October 2020

• Production output rose by 1.3% between September 2020 and October 2020, with all sectors showing growth: manufacturing rose by 1.7%; electricity and gas rose by 0.3%; mining and quarrying rose by 0.2%; and water supply rose by 0.6%.
• In October 2020, the index of production was 4.4% below February 2020, the previous month of “normal” trading conditions prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
• The monthly increase of 1.7% in manufacturing output was led by manufacturing of transport equipment; 11 of the 13 subsectors displayed upward contributions.
• Total production output increased by 7.6% for the three months to October 2020, compared with the three months to July 2020; this was primarily because of the strength displayed during July 2020.
• For the three months to October 2020, compared with the three months to October 2019, production output decreased by 6.1%; this was led by a fall in manufacturing of 7.8%.
• The coronavirus continued to have a significant impact on our estimates of monthly, three-monthly and three-monthly on a year ago growth for production output during October 2020; for further and detailed analysis of the effect on our monthly index of production estimate, please see our article Coronavirus and the impact on output in the UK economy, UK: October 2020, published today (10 December 2020).

The Index of Production (IoP) uses data from a variety of sources and is calculated by taking turnover and removing the impact of price changes or by using direct volume estimates.

The majority of these data are collected as “turnover values” through the Monthly Business Survey (MBS). In addition, direct volume series are collected by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and the International Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB) for steel industries.

From January 2018, Value Added Tax (VAT) data have also been included across 64 production industries for small- and medium-sized businesses. For more information, see VAT turnover data in national accounts: background and methodology.

A comprehensive list of the IoP source data can be found in the Gross domestic product (GDP(O)) source catalogue (XLS, 715KB).

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the UK IoP QMI.

End of EU exit transition period

After the transition period ends on 31 December 2020, the UK statistical system will continue to collect and produce our wide range of economic and social statistics. We are committed to continued alignment with international statistical standards, enabling comparability both over time and internationally and we will work with users of statistics to make sure they have the data they need to support the decisions they have to make.

Additionally, the Withdrawal Agreement outlines a need for UK gross national income (a fundamental component of the national accounts, which includes GDP) statistics to remain in line with those of other EU countries until EU budget contributions are finalised for the years in which we were a member, and making budget contributions during the transition period. To ensure this comparability during this period, the national accounts will continue to be produced according to European System of Accounts (ESA) 2010 definitions and standards until at least 2024.

As the shape of the UK’s future statistical relationship with the EU becomes clearer over the coming period, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is making preparations to assume responsibilities that as part of our membership of the EU, and during the transition period, were delegated to the statistical office of the EU, Eurostat. This includes responsibilities relating to international comparability of economic statistics, deciding what international statistical guidance to apply in the UK context and to provide further scrutiny of our statistics and sector classification decisions.

In applying international statistical standards and best practice to UK economic statistics, we will draw on the technical advice of experts in the UK and internationally, and our work will be underpinned by the UK’s well-established and robust framework for independent official statistics, set out in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007. Further information on our proposals will be made available in early 2021.

Coronavirus (COVID-19)

The ONS’ Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is fully online, meaning that business owners can log on from any location and submit their data at an appropriate time. Most other data in the IoP come from the BEIS and therefore will be less affected than survey data.

Our latest data and analysis on the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) on the UK economy and population is now available on a new web page. This will be the hub for all special coronavirus-related publications, including the fortnightly Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS).

The ONS has released a public statement on the coronavirus and the production of statistics. Specific queries must be directed to the Media Relations Office.