Index of Production, UK: July 2025

• Production output was estimated to have decreased 1.3% during the three months to July 2025, compared with the three months to April 2025; this is the weakest three-monthly growth since December 2023 (down 1.3%).

• The largest negative contributor to the three-monthly fall in July 2025 came from "manufacturing" (down 1.1%), supported by "electricity and gas" (down 5.1%) and "mining and quarrying" (down 1.8%); this was partially offset by an increase in "water supply and sewerage" (up 1.6%).

• The large three-monthly decline in "manufacturing" during the three months to July 2025 was because of widespread decline, with 9 of the 13 subsectors falling; this is the first three-monthly decline for the manufacturing sector since January 2025.

• Monthly production output was estimated to have decreased 0.9% in July 2025; this follows a rise in June 2025 (up 0.7%) and a fall in May 2025 (down 1.3%).

• The fall in monthly production output in July 2025 resulted from decreases in "manufacturing" (down 1.3%), and "mining and quarrying" (down 2.0%); this was partially offset by rises in "electricity and gas" (up 2.0%) and "water supply and sewerage" (up 0.8%).

• 9 of the 13 manufacturing subsectors saw a monthly decline in July 2025, with the largest negative contributions coming from "computer, electronic and optical products" (down 7.0%), "basic pharmaceutical products" (down 4.5%) and "chemicals and chemical products" (down 4.6%).

All data related to the Index of Production (IoP) are available on our Related data page.

The Index of Production (IoP) uses data from a variety of sources. It is calculated by taking turnover and removing the effect of price changes, or by using direct volume estimates.

Most of these data are collected as "turnover values" through the Monthly Business Survey (MBS). Direct volume series are also collected by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), and the International Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB) for steel industries.

The MBS is fully online. Business owners can log on from any location and submit their data at an appropriate time.

From January 2018, Value Added Tax (VAT) data have also been included for 64 production industries for small-and medium-sized businesses. More information is available in our VAT turnover data in National Accounts: background and methodology.

A comprehensive list of the IoP source data can be found in our Gross domestic product (GDP) data sources catalogue.

Response rates for July 2025

MBS response rates were 72.6% for July 2025, based on forms returned. This accounted for 87.7% of total turnover coverage of the sample population. For further information, see our current and historical MBS (production) response rates dataset.

Quality and methodology     

The data reported in IoP bulletins and datasets are estimates that are subject to uncertainty, such as sampling variability and non-sampling error. More information is available in Section 2 of our Uncertainty and how we measure it for our surveys web page.

More quality and methodology information (QMI) on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Index of Production, UK QMI.

Accredited official statistics

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in April 2014. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".

Revisions to Index of Production

In line with the National Accounts Revision Policy, this release publishes data for July 2025 for the first time, with no previous periods open for revision.

Bluebook 2025 publication update

The 2025 annual UK National Accounts, also known as Blue Book 2025, will incorporate more recent survey and administrative information, together with methodological improvements to the full data time series. 

In addition, Blue Book 2025 includes a full time series of corrected Producer Price Indices (PPIs) and Services Producer Price Indices (SPPIs).

On 19 August 2025, we published our Blue Book 2025: advanced aggregate estimates article to give users details of the impact of the 2025 UK national accounts update on current price and chained volume measure estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) from 1997 to 2023.

Estimates using data for 2023 will be calculated for the first time using the supply and use tables (SUTs) framework, and our estimates for 2021 and 2022 have been improved using updated data. The SUT framework looks at the supply of goods and services, how they are used in the economy, and their associated prices in detail. As part of this process, the base year in our Blue Book 2025 dataset has been updated to 2023.

The next quarterly National Accounts release on 30 September 2025 will incorporate these revisions, and any data updates from 2023 onwards, in our official estimates. This aligns with our National Accounts Revisions Policy.

These will be incorporated into our IoP data in our release on 16 October 2025.

Until the Blue Book 2025 data are incorporated into our IoP data on 16 October 2025, our IoP estimates will continue to have a reference and base year of 2022.

Pausing of Producer Prices publications

Business prices data with corrected chain linking methods have been used in the Index of Production (IoP) dataset for producer price indices (PPI), import prices indices (IPI) and export price indices (EPI) from January 2025 onwards. 

Correctly chain-linked service producer price indices have also been included in our IoP dataset from April 2025 onwards. The quarterly services producer price indices (SPPI) estimates are splined to months for use in monthly Index of Services (IoS) calculations. 

The full implementation of updated business prices data will be managed in line with the National Accounts Revision Policy. The full time series update will be included in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2025 release, publishing on 30 September 2025, and our Blue Book 2025 publication. 

Further information on the chain linking error in the producer prices dataset was published on 10 July 2025 in our Growth rates of selected output and input PPI and SPPI article.

Seasonal adjustment

The monthly estimates of IoP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

IoP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using raw data because seasonal effects dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

We use the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and are regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our Seasonal adjustment methodology.

In our IoP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level. The seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total IoP output. As part of our quality assurance approach, residual seasonality checks are regularly completed by our time series analysis team on both the directly seasonally adjusted series and the indirectly derived aggregate time series.

This topic is explored further in our Assessing residual seasonality in published outputs methodology published on 9 May 2025.