Index of Production, UK: December 2023

• Production output growth in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023 was estimated to have fallen by 1.0% when compared with Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2023; this follows a rise of 0.1% in Quarter 3 2023. 

• At the sector level, in Quarter 4 2023 there were falls in "manufacturing" (0.9%), "electricity and gas" (2.6%) and "mining and quarrying" (3.0%); this was partially offset by a rise in "water supply and sewerage" (0.5%).  

• Monthly production output was estimated to have risen by 0.6% in December 2023; this follows an upwardly revised increase of 0.5% in November 2023 (revised up by 0.2 percentage points) and a downwardly revised decrease of 1.4% in October 2023 (revised down 0.1 percentage points).

• The monthly increase in output for December 2023 resulted from a rise in two of the four production sectors, with "manufacturing" being the main contributor to the monthly rise (0.8%) and a smaller positive contribution from "electricity and gas" (1.1%); this was partially offset by falls in "mining and quarrying" (1.8%) and "water supply and sewerage" (0.4%).  

• Monthly manufacturing output rose by 0.8% and saw increases in 9 of its 13 sub-sectors, during December 2023.

• The largest contributing manufacturing sub-sectors to the monthly rise in December 2023 were "manufacture of transport equipment" and "manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products pharmaceutical preparations", which increased by 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively.  

• Production output growth in 2023 was estimated to have fallen by 0.3%; this follows a decrease of 3.4% in 2022.

• Further analysis of the effect on our monthly Index of Production (IoP) estimate is available in our Gross domestic product (GDP) monthly estimate, UK: December 2023 bulletin, published 15 February 2024.

The Index of Production (IoP) uses data from a variety of sources. It is calculated by taking turnover and removing the impact of price changes, or by using direct volume estimates.

Most of these data are collected as “turnover values” through the Monthly Business Survey (MBS). In addition, direct volume series are collected by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), and the International Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB) for steel industries.

The Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is fully online. Business owners can log on from any location and submit their data at an appropriate time. Most other data in the IoP come from the DESNZ, and therefore will be less affected than the survey data.

From January 2018, Value Added Tax (VAT) data have also been included across 64 production industries for small and medium-sized businesses. For more information, see our VAT turnover data in National Accounts: background and methodology article.

A comprehensive list of the IoP source data can be found in our Gross domestic product (GDP) data sources catalogue (XLS, 1.9MB).

Response rates for December 2023  

For December 2023, the response rates were 72.1% based on forms returned and this accounted for 79.7% of total turnover coverage of the sample population. Historical information can be found in our IoP response rates.

Quality and methodology      

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our UK Index of Production Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).

Revisions to IoP

In line with the National Accounts Revision Policy, this release gives data for December 2023 for the first time, with January 2023 to November 2023 also open for revision. 

Office for Statistics Regulation review of GDP

The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) completed a review of the practices around the preparation and release of information about revisions to estimates of GDP in our Impact of Blue Book 2023 article released on 1 September 2023. This covers the following:

• processes and quality assurance in making revisions to GDP

• potential improvements to early estimates of GDP enabled through enhanced access to data 

• communication of revisions to GDP, the story behind the most recent set of revisions in particular and uncertainty in early estimates of GDP

We published a response to the OSR review into GDP in January 2024, which was positively received by the OSR.

Office for National Statistics (ONS), released 15 February 2024, ONS website, statistical bulletin, Index of Production, UK: December 2023