Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 18 September 2025

In the UK in August 2025:

• Consumer spending remained stable, with Revolut debit card spending, Direct Debit failure rates and average transaction amounts all being broadly unchanged compared with the previous month (Revolut, Vocalink and Pay.UK). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

• Business turnover indicators were mixed; the number of firms reporting increased turnover was 2% more than the number reporting decreased turnover, compared with July 2025, while the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) standardised turnover balance decreased by 1.9 percentage points (HM Revenue and Customs Value Added Tax returns, final results from Wave 140 of BICS). Section 4: Business and workforce.

• The number of potential redundancies decreased by 16%, compared with the previous month, but increased by 42% compared with August 2024 (Insolvency Service HR1 forms). Section 4: Business and workforce.

• Wholesale energy prices decreased compared with the previous month; the System Price of electricity and the System Average Price (SAP) of gas both fell, by 9% and 2%, respectively (Elexon, National Gas Transmission). Section 5: Energy. 

• Seasonally adjusted transport indicators showed a slowing in activity, compared with the previous month; the number of UK flights remained broadly unchanged while the number of ship visits to major UK ports fell by 3% (EUROCONTROL, exactEarth). Section 6: Transport.

• The seasonally adjusted number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) lodged for new dwellings across England and Wales increased by 1%, compared with the previous month, but decreased by 6% compared with August 2024 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). Section 7: Housing.

Notes:

1. Card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion. 
2. Indicators with "SA" in the title have been seasonally adjusted. Indicators with "NSA" in the title have not been seasonally adjusted but do present seasonality. All other indicators do not present seasonality. 
3. Existing Energy Performance Building Certificate EPC data can show sudden spikes when housing associations lodge multiple expired EPCs at once.

Consumer spending stabilised in August 2025, but remained higher than a year ago. This was prompted by increases in essential spending, such as utilities and mortgage repayments.

Monthly Direct Debit average transaction amount and failure rate

The seasonally adjusted "Total" Direct Debit average transaction amount remained broadly unchanged in August 2025, compared with July 2025. The "Loans" (3%) and "Water" (2%) categories had the largest increases, while the remaining categories had very small changes or were broadly unchanged.

The seasonally adjusted "Total" Direct Debit average transaction amount increased by 2%, compared with August 2024. The largest increase over this period continued to be for "Water", which rose by 26%.

The seasonally adjusted "Total" Direct Debit failure rate remained broadly unchanged in August 2025, compared with July 2025. The largest increase in failure rates was for “Electricity and Gas” at 6%. Failure rates also increased for "Loans" by 3%, for "Mortgages" by 2%, and for "Water" by 1%. For “Fitness Facilities”, they decreased by 5%.

The seasonally adjusted "Total" Direct Debit failure rate increased by 6%, compared with August 2024. The largest increases over this period were 23% for "Electricity and Gas", 13% for "Fitness Facilities", and 10% for "Water".

The monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount are anonymised and aggregated datasets made available to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) by Pay.UK and Vocalink. The data are unadjusted for inflation and reflect economic activity in nominal terms.

For further details on what is covered within this indicator, see our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Our accompanying Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset is available.

Revolut spending on debit cards

Seasonally adjusted total Revolut debit card spending remained broadly unchanged in August 2025, compared with July 2025. "Groceries", "Health", "Restaurants" and "Utilities" increased slightly by 1%, and "Travel" decreased by 1%. The remaining sectors remained broadly unchanged.

Seasonally adjusted total Revolut debit card spending increased by 11%, with increased spending seen across all sectors, compared with August 2024. The largest percentage increases were 20% in "Utilities", 19% in "Health", and 16% in "Entertainment".

Our accompanying Revolut spending on debit cards dataset is available.

The annual growth rate for the average price of automotive fuel increased by 2 percentage points in August 2025, compared with July 2025. The growth rate for average fuel demand per transaction remained broadly unchanged.

The annual growth rate for the average price of automotive fuel decreased by 4 percentage points when compared with the same month of 2024. The growth rate for average automotive fuel demand per transaction increased by 3 percentage points.

Our accompanying Automotive fuel spending dataset is available.

Business turnover indicators showed a mixed picture in August 2025. A net 2% of firms reported increased turnover on the previous month, according to estimates compiled from Value Added Tax (VAT) returns. The Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) estimated that the standardised turnover balance decreased by 1.9 percentage points.

Value Added Tax flash estimates 

Turnover diffusion indices are an aggregate measure used to track whether most firms are reporting an increase or decrease in turnover in their Value Added Tax (VAT) returns. They are calculated as the percentage of firms with increasing turnover, minus the percentage of firms with decreasing turnover.

Figure 4: The number of firms reporting increased turnover was 2% higher than those reporting decreased turnover in August 2025, which is within normal month-on-month variation

Weighted Value Added Tax (VAT) month-on-month turnover diffusion indices, seasonally adjusted, UK, January 2020 to August 2025

Notes:

1. These data are current price so may reflect elements of inflation. 
2. The shaded areas represent the 95% confidence limits. 
3. The confidence limits are 1.96 standard deviations of the seasonally adjusted series, centred around zero. If a data point is outside of these limits, it is a statistically significant difference.

A net 2% of firms reported an increase in turnover in August 2025. This was 1 percentage point higher than the index for the previous month.

The services sector, which is the largest contributing sector to gross domestic product (GDP), saw a net 3% of firms reporting an increase in turnover in August 2025, compared with the previous month. This is an increase of 1 percentage point, compared with July 2025, and is within normal month-on-month variation.

A net 2% of firms within the production sector reported decreased turnover in August 2025, compared with the previous month. This is a decrease of 3 percentage points, compared with July 2025, and is within normal month-on-month variation.

The number of firms in the construction sector reporting an increase in turnover compared with the previous month was broadly equal to the number of firms reporting a decrease. This is a decrease of 2 percentage points, compared with July 2025, and is within normal month-on-month variation.

A net 1% of firms in the agriculture sector reported decreased turnover on the previous month. This is an increase of 1 percentage point, compared with July 2025, and is within normal month-on-month variation.

These estimates have been weighted according to each industry's contribution to the economy. As services have the greatest contribution, they have a greater contribution to the total index. 

The data are seasonally adjusted. More information on the compilation and methodology of these estimates can be found in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Our accompanying Value Added Tax (VAT) flash estimates dataset is available.

Advanced notification of potential redundancies

The number of potential redundancies decreased by 16% in August 2025, compared with July 2025. The number of employers proposing redundancies decreased by 30%.

The "Construction" industry and "Other Services" had the largest percentage decreases in potential redundancies month-on-month, down 85% and 80%, respectively. The largest percentage increase over the same period was in the "Public Administration, Education and Health" industry, which increased by 67%.

The number of potential redundancies increased by 42% and the number of employers proposing redundancies increased by 1%, when compared with the equivalent month of 2024. 

The largest percentage increase year-on-year was in the "Public Administration, Education and Health" industry (105%), followed by "Banking and Finance" (52%) and "Manufacturing" (51%).

For more information, our accompanying Advanced notification of potential redundancies weekly dataset is available. Industry and regional breakdowns by month are available in our monthly potential redundancies dataset.

System Average Price of gas and System Price of electricity

The System Price of electricity decreased by 9% to an average price of 7.175p/kWh in August 2025, compared with July 2025, but increased by 27% to a monthly average price of 5.660p/kWh when compared with the same month last year. This month-on-month decrease coincides with a drop in average temperature and reductions in the need for cooling of homes, commercial buildings and data centres. More information is available in the Met Office's Weather and climate summaries. 

The System Average Price (SAP) of gas decreased by 2% from 2.769p/kWh to 2.712p/kWh in August 2025, compared with July 2025. It decreased by 6% to a monthly average price of 2.870p/kWh when compared with the equivalent month of last year.

Changes in the System Average Price (SAP) of gas and the System Price of electricity are considered by the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) when setting the energy price caps for the next three months. Large changes in these prices can indicate that the future price cap set by Ofgem will change.

Our accompanying System Average Price of gas dataset and System Price of electricity dataset are available.

UK flights

The seasonally adjusted number of UK Flights remained broadly unchanged in August 2025, compared with July 2025, but remained 2% higher than August 2024. 

Our accompanying Daily UK flights dataset is available.

Shipping

The seasonally adjusted total number of ship visits to selected UK ports decreased by 3% in August 2025, compared with July 2025. The number of cargo ship and tanker visits also decreased by 3% over the same period.

The seasonally adjusted total number of ship visits decreased by 12% and cargo ship and tanker visits decreased by 13%, compared with the equivalent month of 2024. 

Our accompanying Weekly shipping indicators dataset is available.

Energy Performance Building Certificates

The seasonally adjusted total number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) for new dwellings across England and Wales increased by 1% in August 2025, compared with July 2025. EPCs lodged for existing dwellings also increased by 2% in August 2025, compared with the previous month. For existing dwellings, this was a return to a more normal monthly change. There was a 35% increase in EPCs lodged in June 2025 and a 40% fall in July, arising from multiple housing associations lodging large numbers of EPCs all at once.  

The seasonally adjusted total number of EPCs for new dwellings decreased by 6%, compared with August 2024, but the number of EPCs for existing dwellings remained broadly unchanged over the same period.

Our accompanying Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset and the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government's Weekly EPCs for domestic properties dataset are available.

This section lists a selection of data available in this publication. Please note that because of our data sharing agreement with MRI onLocation, we are unable to provide a dataset for our footfall metric. For the full list of available datasets, please see our accompanying dataset page.

Real-time indicator

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or experimental estimates, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Seasonal adjustment

Seasonal adjustment is the identification and removal of consistent and systematic variation in time series associated with the time of year. For more information on seasonal variation, and how we implement seasonal adjustment, see Section 2 of our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology article.

Official statistics in development

These statistics are labelled as official statistics in development. Until September 2023, these were called "experimental statistics". Read more about the change in our Guide to official statistics in development.

We are developing how we collect and produce the data to improve the quality of these statistics. Find out more in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology article.

Once the developments are complete, we will review the statistics with the Statistics Head of Profession. We will decide if the statistics are of sufficient quality and value to be published as official statistics, or if further development is needed. Production may be stopped if they are not of sufficient quality or value. Users will be informed of the outcome and any changes.

We value your feedback on these statistics. If you would like to get in touch, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

Dataset release dates and intended release frequency

Latest release dates and intended release frequency of our associated datasets are available in this section. Please note that there may be some change to the intended release frequency for a variety of reasons, such as data availability. If you would like further information about any of these datasets, or previous release dates, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

Weekly data release

• Revolut spending on debit cards dataset; updated 18 September 2025.

• Automotive fuel spending dataset; updated 11 September 2025.

• Company incorporations, voluntary dissolutions and compulsory dissolutions dataset; updated 30 January 2025.

• Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset; updated 18 September 2025.

• System Average Price of gas dataset; updated 18 September 2025.

• System Price of electricity dataset; updated 18 September 2025.

• Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset; updated 18 September 2025.

• Weekly shipping indicators dataset; updated 18 September 2025.

• Daily UK flights dataset; updated 18 September 2025.

Monthly data release

• Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset; updated 11 September 2025.

• Textkernel new online job adverts dataset; updated 29 August 2025.

• Value Added Tax (VAT) flash estimates dataset; updated 18 September 2025.

• Renter affordability for new tenancies dataset; updated 11 September 2025.

Quarterly data release

• Sales and jobs in small businesses dataset; updated 7 November 2024.

Strengths and limitations

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society. We use close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys, or official statistics in development.

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability.

Seasonality

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators, so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.