Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 8 December 2022

• The System Average Price (SAP) of gas rose by 137% in the week to 4 December 2022, which was the largest week-on-week increase observed to date in 2022; this price was 31% above the level of the equivalent week of 2021 but 38% below the peak level recorded on 28 August 2022 (National Grid). Section 3: Energy and housing.

• Consumer behaviour indicators mostly showed increased activity in the latest week, in line with expected pre-Christmas trends, with UK credit and debit card purchases increasing by 13 percentage points (Bank of England CHAPS data) and overall retail footfall at 105% of the previous week (Springboard). Section 4: Consumer behaviour.

• The total number of online job adverts was unchanged on 2 December 2022 compared with the previous week but was 18% lower than the peak level reported in February 2022; the number of adverts decreased in 16 of the 28 job categories compared with the previous week, increasing in 10 and remaining unchanged in 2 (Adzuna). Section 4: Business and workforce.

• Accounting for expected seasonal fluctuations, more than a quarter (29%) of businesses currently trading expect turnover to decrease in January 2023 (initial results from Wave 71 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS)). Section 5: Business and workforce.

• The average daily number of ship visits to major UK ports increased by 13% in the week to 4 December (exactEarth). Section 6: Transport.

Notes:

1. Revolut adjustments to user count are at an aggregate level and as such age bands may not adjust evenly.
2. Users should note that card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.
3. The breaks in the shipping series are caused by technical issues.

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System Average Price (SAP) of gas

This is the average price of all gas traded through the balancing market. Market participants post bids or offers for volumes of gas a day-ahead and within-day trades. The SAP aggregates the trades conducted on the On-the-Day Commodity Market (OCM). This is the market that the National Grid use in their role as residual balancer. Other markets exist for wholesale gas trading in Great Britain.

These data can be used to understand the general trend of gas prices within the UK. However, the data should be treated with caution as these can be subject to extreme within-day trading prices and may skew actual traded prices. It must also be noted that while these prices reflect spot prices on the day, traders can opt for futures contracts where the buyer and the seller agree the market-determined price for gas for a future date. The daily SAP is used to determine the futures price and is therefore a useful indicator of supply constraints and demand pressures.

In the week to 27 November 2022, the estimated demand for fuel per transaction was unchanged from the previous week and 91% of the level seen in the equivalent week of 2021. Average fuel prices were 118% of the level in the equivalent week of 2021 but had decreased by 2 percentage points from the previous week. Total fuel sales were 96% of the level in the equivalent week of 2021. Our accompanying dataset: Automotive fuel spending is available.

According to data from OpenTable, the number of UK seated diners decreased by 3 percentage points in the week to 4 December 2022 to 109% of the level in the equivalent pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) week of 2019. In London, the number was broadly unchanged but was 9 percentage points higher than the equivalent week of 2021.          

UK Spending on debit and credit cards

Debit and credit card spend data showed increased activity in the latest week, in line with expected pre-Christmas trends.

Revolut debit card transaction data showed increased spending in all reported sectors in the week to 4 December 2022, except "retail", which saw a 1-percentage-point decrease. The "entertainment" sector saw the biggest increase of 13 percentage points but remained the only sector not to return to its pre-coronavirus baseline levels. Total spending across all sectors increased by 4 percentage points in the week to 4 December 2022 and was 17 percentage points above the same period last year. "Travel and accommodation" was the only sector to remain below the level reported in the same period last year, seeing a 13-percentage-point decrease. These data are not adjusted for potential effects of inflation on the value of transactions. Our accompanying dataset: Revolut spending on debit cards is available.

Daily CHAPS-based indicator

These data series are experimental real-time indicators for estimating UK spending on credit and debit cards. They track the daily CHAPS payments made by credit and debit card payment processors to around 100 major UK retail corporates. These payments are the proceeds of recent credit and debit card transactions made by customers at their stores, both via physical and via online platforms. More information on the indicator is provided in the accompanying methodology article.   

Companies are allocated to one of four categories based on their primary business:    

• "staples" refers to companies that sell essential goods that households need to purchase, such as food and utilities   

• "work-related" refers to companies providing public transport or selling petrol   

• "delayable" refers to companies selling goods whose purchase could be delayed, such as clothing or furnishings

• "social" refers to spending on travel and eating out   

Figure 2 shows changes in the value of CHAPS payments received by large UK corporates from their credit and debit card processors, "merchant acquirers".  

The spending categories recorded the following changes in the latest week: 

• "delayable" increased by 22 percentage points

• "staple" increased by 13 percentage points

• "social" increased by 5 percentage points

• "work-related" increased by 4 percentage points

When compared with the same week in 2021, the spending categories recorded the following changes:

• "delayable" decreased by 10 percentage points

• "staple" increased by 2 percentage points

• "social" increased by 5 percentage points

• "work-related" increased by 16 percentage points

UK spending on debit and credit cards: monthly CHAPS-based indicator

The monthly data time series is available in the accompanying dataset: UK spending on credit and debit cards and includes methodological notes that users should bear in mind. The monthly CHAPS index is calculated by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), rather than being an additional series that is produced and validated by the Bank of England.

The monthly CHAPS-based indicator of aggregate credit and debit card spending in November 2022 was 5 percentage points higher than in October 2022 and 2 percentage points higher than in November 2021.

All spending categories in the monthly CHAPS-based indicator except "social" increased from October to November 2022, with the largest increase observed in the "delayable" category, which was up 14 percentage points. All categories except "delayable" increased when compared with the equivalent period last year. "Work-related" spending saw the largest year-on-year increase of 20 percentage points.

The monthly CHAPS-based aggregate index can provide an indication of the direction of retail sales data, having followed similar trends since the CHAPS index was established in January 2020. The ONS publishes retail sales data around the middle of each month, approximately two weeks after the monthly CHAPS index is published in this bulletin.

National retail footfall

National retail footfall figures are supplied by Springboard, a provider of data on customer activity. The breakdowns in this indicator are as follows:

• overall footfall, which is the sum of the average footfall in each destination type weighted by their respective footfall volumes

• shopping centre, which is a space that does not form part of the public highway, and is owned and managed by a single landlord

• high street, which is the central part of the main business and commercial area of a town

• retail parks and shopping parks, which comprise retail warehouse units, wholly owned and managed by a single landlord

Springboard's weekly data are defined over a seven-day period running from Monday to Sunday. Week 48 of 2022 refers to the period Monday 28 November to Sunday 4 December 2022. All quoted figures have been rounded to the nearest integer.

Figure 4: In the week to 4 December 2022, overall weekly retail footfall was 89% of the level in the equivalent week of 2019

Volume of daily retail footfall, percentage compared with the equivalent week of 2019, 1 January 2020 to 4 December 2022, UK

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According to Springboard, in the week to 4 December 2022, the volume of overall weekly retail footfall for:

• the overall springboard index was 105% of the previous week and 89% of the equivalent week of 2019

• retail parks were 102% of the previous week and 96% of the level in the equivalent week of 2019

• high streets were 106% of the previous week and 89% of the level in the equivalent week of 2019

• shopping centres were 104% of the previous week and 81% of the level in the equivalent week of 2019

In the week to 4 December 2022, all 12 UK countries and English regions saw increased retail footfall compared with the previous week, in line with expected pre-Christmas trends. The largest increase was reported in the South West of England, which recorded 110% of the level in the previous week, followed by Wales, at 108% of the level in the previous week. Footfall in all regions was below 2019 levels, however, with the lowest level seen in Yorkshire and The Humber (83%).

The total number of online job adverts was unchanged on 2 December 2022 compared with the previous week and was 18% lower than the peak level in February 2022. Of the 28 job categories, 16 showed a decrease in the number of adverts, while 10 increased and two remained unchanged. The largest decrease was in the "Charity and voluntary" category, which fell by 5% and was 21% below its level in the equivalent week of 2021. Elsewhere, the largest increase was 8% in "HR & recruitment", though this category remained 29% lower than its level in the equivalent week of 2021.

In the 12 UK countries and English regions, the number of adverts was unchanged in six, decreased in four and increased in two. Adverts were below the level in the equivalent week of 2021 in all 12 UK countries and English regions, except Scotland where they were 10% above this level. The lowest performer compared with the equivalent week of 2021 was the East Midlands, which reported 30% fewer adverts. Our accompanying dataset: Online job advert estimates is available.

The number of potential redundancies reported in the week to 27 November 2022 was 73% above the level in the equivalent week of 2021, while the number of employers proposing redundancies increased by 104% compared with the level in the equivalent week of 2021. Our accompanying dataset: Advanced notification of potential redundancies is available.

Business impact and insights

Initial results from Wave 71 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) were collected from 28 November to 6 December 2022, with a response rate of 20.5% (7,999 responses).

The latest data for traffic camera activity are available in our accompanying dataset: Traffic camera activity.

Shipping

A changeover in the systems used to collect shipping data has introduced a level shift in the data time series from 14 June 2021 onwards. Users should not make comparisons between data before and after this date. The data produced before the change, from 1 April 2019 to 13 June 2021, can still be compared within that period.

A full methodological review of our current method of shipping data collection is under way and data may be subject to revision once this is complete. We will continue to update the accompanying weekly shipping dataset using the current method until the review is complete.

Real-time indicator

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or Experimental Statistics, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Information on the methodology used to produce the indicators in this bulletin is available in the Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society, using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or Experimental Statistics. The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability.

UK coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions

Coronavirus restrictions should be considered when interpreting the data featured throughout this bulletin.

Seasonality

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.