Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 30 June 2022

Users should note that some of the increases and decreases in the latest week coincide with rail industrial action seen in parts of Great Britain.

• Consumer behaviour indicators showed decreased activity this week; transit station visits decreased by 6% from the previous week, there was a fall in the number of transactions at most Pret A Manger locations, and UK seated diners decreased by 16 percentage points (Google Mobility, Pret A Manger, OpenTable). Section 3.

• The total volume of online job adverts on 24 June 2022 decreased slightly from the previous week to 121% of its February 2020 pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic average level (Adzuna).

• Transport indicators were broadly flat this week; while total ship visits decreased by 2% from the previous week, cargo and tanker ship visits, daily UK flights and road traffic were all broadly unchanged (exactEarth, EUROCONTROL, Department for Transport). Section 4.

• In late June 2022, 35% of businesses reported their production and/or suppliers had been affected by recent increases in energy prices, up from 33% reported in early May 2022 (final results from Wave 59 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS)).

• Among currently trading businesses, 30% expect to increase the price of goods or services they sell in July 2022; energy prices continue to be reported as the main factor for considering doing so, at 42% (final results from Wave 59 of BICS).

• The System Average Price (SAP) of gas increased by 11% in the week to 26 June 2022 to 39% of the peak level seen on 10 March 2022; this is the highest since 17 April 2022 when it was 41% of the peak level (National Grid).

Notes:

1. The break in the available shipping data (from 14 to 19 June 2021) is when the data collection system changed.
2. Shipping data for 9 to 21 May 2022 have been removed because of technical issues.

Google Mobility data showed that visits to transit locations decreased by 6% in the week to 24 June 2022; they were 76% of their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels. Meanwhile, “retail and recreation” and “grocery and pharmacy” visits were unchanged from the previous week.

Pret A Manger transactions in most locations decreased in the week to 23 June 2022, most notably regional stations and London stations. These fell by 32 and 26 percentage points, respectively.

The seven-day average estimate of UK seated diners decreased by 16 percentage points to 111% of the level in the equivalent week of 2019. London seated diners decreased by 17% and were 75% of the level in the equivalent week of 2019.

In the week to 23 June 2022, the aggregate CHAPS based indicator of credit and debit card purchases was broadly unchanged from the previous week, at 99% of its February 2020 average. Our accompanying dataset is available.

Mobility

Google Mobility data provide an indicator of changes in the volume of visits to different location types compared with a pre-coronavirus pandemic baseline.

Visits are calculated based on publicly available anonymised data from Google users in the UK, who have opted into location history for their Google account. Visits are therefore based on a subset of users. Full details of Google's methods used to compile the data are available.

We have transformed the publicly available anonymised data into an indexed seven-day moving average to smooth the weekdays and weekends.

Location types we have used the data for include:

• grocery and pharmacy (grocery stores, supermarkets, farmers' markets, specialty food shops and pharmacies)

• parks (parks, public beaches, marinas, public gardens and other public open spaces)

• transit stations (public transport hubs such as train, light rail, tram and bus stations)

• retail and recreation (restaurants, cafes, shopping centres, theme parks, museums, libraries, theatres and cinemas)

• workplaces

Visits to each location type in the UK in the week to 24 June 2022:

• in parks decreased by 2% from the previous week and were 54% above pre-coronavirus pandemic levels

• in grocery and pharmacy remained unchanged, but were 9% above pre-coronavirus pandemic levels

• in retail and recreation remained unchanged, but were 10% below pre-coronavirus pandemic levels

• in workplaces decreased by 2% and were 19% below pre-coronavirus pandemic levels

The full data time series and regional breakdowns can be found in our accompanying Visits to location types using Google Mobility dataset.

Transactions at Pret A Manger

Pret A Manger is a sandwich and coffee shop franchise chain, operating around 400 stores across the UK. Its transactional data are presented as an index and show total weekly till transactions at Pret A Manger shops as a proportion of the average weekly level in the first four weeks of 2020 (between Friday 3 January and Thursday 30 January 2020). Because of this comparison across the data time series, users should expect an element of seasonality in the data.

More information on the areas featured is available in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology. These data are also made available every Tuesday through the Bloomberg Pret Index.

London city worker and regional towns locations had the largest decreases when compared with the previous week at 26 and 25 percentage points, respectively. Yorkshire remained broadly unchanged from the previous week and had the highest number of transactions compared with January 2020 averages, at 123%.

OpenTable seated diners

In the latest week, the seven-day average estimate of seated diners in London decreased by 17 percentage points and was 75% of the level seen in the equivalent week of 2020.

In the week ending 26 June 2022, the seasonally adjusted average count of traffic camera activity for cars in London increased by 5%, at 121% of its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic level. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted average count of traffic camera activity for cars in the North East remained unchanged from the previous week, at 100% of its pre-coronavirus pandemic level (North East Traffic Cameras, Transport for London). Our accompanying dataset is available.

Daily UK flight levels compared with the equivalent week of 2019 were at 84% in the week to 26 June 2022, and remained broadly stable for the ninth consecutive week. Our accompanying dataset is available.

Total ship visits decreased by 2%, while cargo and tanker visits were broadly similar compared with the previous week. Our accompanying dataset is available.

The volume of all motor vehicle traffic on 27 June 2022 remained broadly similar to the previous week, at 100% of the level seen on the Monday of the first week in February 2020, with all traffic type volumes broadly similar to the previous week. Heavy goods vehicles traffic was at 108% of the level seen on the Monday of the first week in February 2020, light commercial was at 114%, and car traffic was at 95%.

Users should note that this section lists a selection of the data available with this publication. A full list of available datasets is available on our accompanying dataset page.

Real-time indicator

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or Experimental Statistics, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Information on the methodology used to produce the indicators in this bulletin is available in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society, using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or Experimental Statistics.

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability.

UK coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic restrictions

A full overview of coronavirus pandemic restrictions for each of the four UK constituent countries can be found:

• coronavirus in England
• coronavirus in Scotland
• coronavirus in Wales
• coronavirus in Northern Ireland

These restrictions should be considered when interpreting the data featured throughout this bulletin.

Seasonality

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators. Please apply caution when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.