Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 21 March 2024

• The total number of online job adverts on 15 March 2024 was 1% higher than the previous week, however, this was 18% below the level seen in the equivalent period of 2023 (Adzuna). Section 4: Business and workforce.

• Consumer behaviour indicators showed decreased activity in the latest week; transactions at Pret A Manger stores decreased in 9 of the 10 location categories, aggregate UK spending on credit and debit cards fell by 3%, while overall retail footfall decreased to 95% of the level of the previous week (Pret A Manger, Bank of England CHAPS, Springboard). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

• In February 2024, 3% more firms reported an increase than a decrease in turnover on the previous month, rising from a net decrease of 1% in January 2024 (HM Revenue and Customs Value Added Tax returns). Section 4: Business and workforce.

• Nearly one in five (18%) trading businesses expect to raise the prices of goods or services they sell in April 2024, up 2 percentage points from expectations for March 2024, but down 6 percentage points on expectations for April 2023 (final results from Wave 104 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey). Section 4: Business and workforce.

• The System Price of electricity and the System Average Price (SAP) of gas decreased by 3% and 2%, respectively, in the week to 17 March 2024 when compared with the previous week (Elexon, National Gas Transmission). Section 5: Energy.

• Transport indicators have shown broadly positive activity in the latest week; the average number of ships visiting UK ports increased by 4% and the daily average number of UK flights increased by 1%, while the average pedestrian and cyclist levels in London remained broadly unchanged (exactEarth, EUROCONTROL, Transport for London). Section 6: Transport.

Notes:

1. Card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.
2. Revolut adjustments to user count are at an aggregate level and as such age bands may not adjust evenly.
3. Indicators with SA in the title have been seasonally adjusted.

Transactions at Pret A Manger

In the week to 14 March 2024, the number of in-store transactions at Pret A Manger stores decreased in 9 of the 10 location categories when compared with the previous week. The largest decrease was in Scotland, falling by 9%. Regional Stations was the only location category where the number of in-store transactions did not decrease, although it remained unchanged when compared with the previous week.

Compared with the equivalent week of 2023, the number of in-store transactions at Pret A Manger increased in 2 and decreased in 8 of the 10 location categories. The largest increase occurred in Regional Station store locations, increasing by 17%, while the largest decrease occurred in Regional Towns, decreasing by 20%.

Our accompanying Transactions at Pret A Manger dataset is available.

UK spending on debit and credit cards: weekly, seasonally adjusted CHAPS-based indicator

Users should note that the “work-related” and “social” CHAPS series have been withdrawn in 2024 because of sample population issues. We will continue publishing the aggregate, staple and delayable series while we are undertaking a review of the component series and will provide an update in due course. Please note that the “work-related” and “social” categories still contribute to the “aggregate” series.

The spending categories, when seasonally adjusted, recorded the following changes in the latest week:

• “aggregate” decreased by 3%
• “delayable” decreased by 3%
• “staple” decreased by 1%

When compared with the same week in 2023, the spending categories, when seasonally adjusted, recorded the following changes:

• “aggregate” decreased by 1%
• “delayable” decreased by 4%
• “staple” increased by 3%

The weekly and monthly seasonally adjusted CHAPS indices, and the daily and monthly non-seasonally adjusted CHAPS indices, are available in our accompanying UK spending on credit and debit cards dataset.

National retail footfall

Overall retail footfall in the week to 17 March 2024 decreased to 95% of the level seen in the previous week and 96% of the level in the equivalent week of 2023. In the latest week, footfall in all three location categories decreased compared with the previous week.

Shopping centre footfall saw the biggest change, decreasing to 92% of the level in the previous week, while retail park footfall decreased to 95% and high street footfall decreased to 97%. When compared with the same period of 2023, all categories decreased. The largest decrease was seen in shopping centre footfall, which decreased to 92% of the level of the equivalent week of the previous year.

Overall retail footfall decreased across all of the 12 UK countries and regions, with the largest decreases seen in Wales and the North West, dropping to 91% and 93% of the level in the previous week, respectively. When compared with the equivalent week in 2023, all of the 12 UK countries and regions also decreased. The largest decrease was seen in Wales, which decreased to 89% of the level seen in the equivalent week of the previous year.

Value Added Tax flash estimates

Turnover diffusion indices are an aggregate measure used to track whether most firms are reporting an increase or decrease in turnover in their Value Added Tax (VAT) returns. They are calculated as the percentage of firms with increasing turnover, minus the percentage of firms with decreasing turnover.

These estimates have been weighted according to each industry’s contribution to the economy. As services have the greatest contribution, they have a greater contribution to the total index.

The indices are constructed to lie between 1 and negative 1. An index of 0.05 means that 5% more firms reported an increase in turnover compared with the previous month than those reporting a decrease in turnover. Conversely, an index of negative 0.05 means that 5% more firms reported a decrease in turnover compared with the previous month.

Figure 3: 3% more firms reported an increase than a decrease in turnover on the previous month in February 2024, rising from a net decrease of 1% in January 2024

Weighted Value Added Tax (VAT) turnover diffusion indices, UK, January 2020 to February 2024, seasonally adjusted

Notes:

1. These data are current price so may reflect elements of inflation.
2. The shaded areas represent the 95% confidence limits.
3. The confidence limits are 1.96 standard deviations of the seasonally adjusted series, centred around zero. If a data point is outside of these limits, it is a statistically significant difference.

A net 3% of firms in February 2024 reported increased turnover on the previous month, after seasonal adjustment.

The construction sector saw a net 5% of firms reporting an increase in turnover in February 2024. This is a 12-percentage point rise from January 2024 and is outside of normal month-on-month variation.

The services sector reported a net 3% of firms with increased turnover on the previous month in February 2024, while the production sector saw a broadly equal number of firms reporting either an increase or decrease on the previous month. Both sectors’ latest values lie within normal month-on-month variation.

The agriculture sector reported a net 1% of firms with decreased turnover on the previous month; this is a 12-percentage point fall from January 2024 and has returned to be within normal month-on-month variation.

The data are seasonally adjusted. More information on the compilation and methodology of these estimates can be found in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Online job adverts

These figures are innovative estimates of online job adverts by category, UK country, and English region, provided by Adzuna, an online job search engine. The number of job adverts over time is an indicator of the demand for labour. The Adzuna categories used do not correspond to Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) categories, so these values are not directly comparable with our Vacancy Survey.

The number of online job adverts on 15 March 2024 increased by 1% when compared with the previous week. Of the 12 UK countries and English regions, 10 increased, 1 decreased and 1 remained unchanged.

The total number of online job adverts fell by 18% when compared with the equivalent period of 2023, with all regions seeing a fall when compared with the previous year. The largest decreases were seen in Scotland, which fell by 27%, and London, which fell by 24%.

When compared with the equivalent period of 2023, the total number of online job adverts has fallen in 25 of the 28 job categories. The largest decreases were in the “Charity and voluntary” and “Construction and trades” categories, both falling by 48%.

Our accompanying Online job advert estimates dataset is available.

Business impact and insights

The Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) collects data from selected industries and does not have full coverage of the UK economy. For more information on the industries covered in the BICS sample, see our Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) QMI.

To enable comparisons, we have created a reweighted gross domestic product (GDP) estimate, termed as GDP*. This only includes the industries covered within the BICS.

Advanced notification of potential redundancies

Calculated as a four-week rolling average, the number of potential redundancies in the week to 10 March 2024 was 2% below the level in the equivalent week of 2023. However, the number of employers proposing redundancies was 3% above the level in the equivalent week of 2023.

Comparisons with the equivalent period a year ago help account for any seasonal impacts. For more information, our accompanying Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset is available.

System Average Price (SAP) of gas

The System Average Price (SAP) of gas decreased by 2% in the week to 17 March 2024, when compared with the previous week, and is now 41% lower than the level seen in the equivalent week of 2023.

Our accompanying System Average Price of gas dataset is available.

System Price of electricity

The System Price of electricity decreased by 3% in the week to 17 March 2024, when compared with the previous week, and is now 49% lower than the level seen in the equivalent week of 2023.

Our accompanying System Price of electricity dataset is available.

Weekly shipping indicators

The average number of daily ship visits increased by 4% in the week to 17 March 2024, when compared with the previous week. In the same period, the average number of daily cargo and tanker ship visits increased by 7%.

When compared with the equivalent week in 2023, the average number of daily ship visits decreased by 5%, while the average number of daily visits from cargo and tanker ships decreased by 1%.

Our accompanying Weekly shipping indicators dataset is available.

Daily UK flights

The daily average number of UK flights increased by 1% in the week to 17 March 2024, when compared with the previous week and was 7% higher than the equivalent week of 2023.

Our accompanying Daily UK flights dataset is available.

Traffic camera activity

The average traffic camera activity for cars in London decreased by 2% in the week to 17 March 2024, when compared with the previous week. Meanwhile, average pedestrian and cyclist levels in London were broadly unchanged.

Our accompanying Traffic camera activity dataset is available.

This section lists a selection of the data available in this publication. For the full list of available datasets, please see our accompanying dataset page.

Real-time indicator

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or experimental estimates, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Official statistics in development

These statistics are labelled as “official statistics in development”. Until September 2023, these were called “experimental statistics”. Read more about the change in our Guide to official statistics in development.

We are developing how we collect and produce the data to improve the quality of these statistics. Read more in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology article.

Once the developments are complete, we will review the statistics with the Statistics Head of Profession. We will decide whether the statistics are of sufficient quality and value to be published as official statistics, or whether further development is needed. Production may be stopped if they are not of sufficient quality or value. Users will be informed of the outcome and any changes.

We value your feedback on these statistics. Contact us at realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society, using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys, or official statistics in development.

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability.

UK coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions

Coronavirus restrictions should be considered when interpreting the data featured throughout this bulletin.

Seasonality

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.