Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 19 February 2026

In the UK in January 2026:

• Consumer activity slowed, compared with December 2025; total retail footfall decreased and seasonally adjusted total consumer spending remained broadly unchanged (BT Active Intelligence, Revolut). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

• The seasonally adjusted Direct Debit failure rate decreased by 1%, compared with December 2025, but increased by 9%, compared with January 2025 (Vocalink and Pay.UK). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

• The number of potential redundancies increased by 29% compared with December 2025 and increased by 22% compared with January 2025; the January 2026 increase largely reflected a reversal of the previous month’s trend (Insolvency Service HR1 forms). Section 4: Business and workforce.

• Wholesale gas and electricity prices increased compared with December 2025, coinciding with a colder than average start to the year, and supply constraints (National Gas Transmission, Elexon). Section 5: Energy.

• The seasonally adjusted number of UK flights decreased by 2% compared with December 2025 and decreased by 1% when compared with January 2025 (EUROCONTROL). Section 6: Transport.

• The seasonally adjusted number of new vehicle registrations decreased by 2% compared with December 2025 (The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)). Section 6: Transport.

• The seasonally adjusted number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) lodged in England and Wales for new dwellings decreased by 4%, compared with the previous month, but increased by 4% when compared with January 2025 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). Section 7: Housing.

Notes:

1. Card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.
2. Indicators with "SA" in the title have been seasonally adjusted. Indicators with "NSA" in the title have not been seasonally adjusted but do present seasonality. All other indicators do not present seasonality.

January 2026 saw a slowdown in consumer activity, with retail footfall falling compared with both the previous month and when compared with the same month of the previous year. Consumer spending remained flat month-on-month but was higher than a year ago (unadjusted for inflation). 

UK retail footfall 

UK retail footfall decreased by 11% in January 2026, compared with December 2025, in line with seasonal expectations but was also 4% lower than January 2025. 

Footfall decreased in all three site types, compared with December 2025; town and city centres decreased by 18% off a very strong December figure, retail parks decreased by 11% and local centres by 5%. 

When compared with January 2025, footfall decreased in district or local centres (8%) and retail parks (7%) but increased in town and city centres (2%).

Retail footfall decreased in each of the 12 regions (including UK countries and English regions) in January 2026, compared with December 2025. The largest decreases were in Northern Ireland (21%) and Scotland (16%).

When compared with January 2025, retail footfall decreased in all but one region. The largest decreases over this period were in Wales (10%) and Northern Ireland (9%). The only increase over this period was in London (1%).

Figure 2: Retail footfall decreased in all but one UK region in January 2026 when compared with January 2025

Change in retail footfall by region, UK, January 2026, non-seasonally adjusted

Notes:

1. Details of the methods used to compile these data are available in the BT Active Intelligence methodology.
2. Data are available in further detail, broken down by region and site type, in our accompanying UK retail footfall dataset.

Revolut spending on debit cards 

Seasonally adjusted Revolut debit card spending was broadly unchanged in January 2026 compared with December 2025. Decreases were seen across all spend categories except “Services” and “Travel”, which increased by 6% and 2% respectively, and “Utilities”, which remained unchanged. The largest decrease over this period was in “Shopping”, which fell by 3%.

When compared with January 2025, seasonally adjusted Revolut debit card spending increased by 13%. All spend categories saw increases, with the largest being in “Services” and “Entertainment”, which increased by 23% and 22%, respectively.  

Our accompanying Revolut spending on debit cards dataset is available.

Monthly Direct Debit average transaction amount and failure rate

The seasonally adjusted total Direct Debit average transaction amount remained broadly unchanged in January 2026, compared with December 2025. The average transaction amounts for "Loans" and "Water" increased by 4% and 2%, respectively. The only decrease month-on-month was for “Electricity and gas”, which fell by 1%.

The seasonally adjusted Direct Debit average transaction amount increased by 4% when compared with January 2025. "Water" remained the category with the largest year-on-year increase, rising by 27% from January 2025. "Electricity and gas" and "Loans" decreased by 3% and 1%, respectively, over the same period.

The seasonally adjusted Direct Debit failure rate decreased by 1% in January 2026, compared with December 2025. "Fitness facilities" and "Mortgages" saw the largest decreases of 7% and 6%, respectively. Failure rates over this period increased only in "Electricity and gas", by 5%.

The seasonally adjusted Direct Debit failure rate increased by 9% in January 2026 when compared with January 2025. Year-on-year increases were seen across all major categories: "Electricity and gas" (39%), "Fitness facilities" (16%), "Loans" (12%), "Water" (6%), "Other" (6%) and "Mortgages" (1%).

The monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount are anonymised and aggregated datasets made available to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) by Pay.UK and Vocalink. The data are unadjusted for inflation and reflect economic activity in nominal terms.

For further details on what is covered within this indicator, see our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Our accompanying Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset is available.

Automotive Fuel Spending

The annual growth rate for the average price of automotive fuel decreased by 2 percentage points in January 2026, compared with the previous month. When compared with the same month of the previous year, annual growth rate for the average fuel price increased by 1 percentage point.

The growth rate for the average fuel demand per transaction increased by 2 percentage points in January 2026 when compared with both the previous month, and the equivalent month of 2025.

Advanced notification of potential redundancies

The number of potential redundancies increased by 29% in January 2026 compared with the previous month. Over the same period, the number of employers proposing redundancies rose by 67%. These increases largely reflect a reversal of the previous month’s trend, as corporate activity (including insolvency and redundancy planning) typically slows in December each year, which is in line with seasonal expectations.

The largest increase in potential redundancies was reported in the “Distribution, Hotels and Restaurants” industry, which rose by 272% in January 2026 compared with December 2025. The “Banking and Finance” industry also recorded a substantial increase, up 101% over the same period. These two industries accounted for 30% and 25%, respectively, of all potential redundancies reported in January 2026.

In contrast, the number of potential redundancies in the “Construction” and “Manufacturing” industries fell in January 2026 compared with December 2025, by 55% and 29%, respectively. This follows increases in both industries in the previous month.

Compared with January 2025, potential redundancies increased by 22%, while the number of employers proposing redundancies rose by 5%.

Year-on-year, the largest percentage increase in potential redundancies was recorded in the “Distribution, Hotels and Restaurants” industry (67%), followed by “Banking and Finance” (37%) and “Energy and Water” (30%). Three industries reported lower levels of potential redundancies in January 2026 compared with the same month a year earlier: “Transport and Communication” (down 17%), “Other Services” (down 14%), and “Manufacturing” (down 9%).

For more information, our accompanying Advanced notification of potential redundancies weekly dataset is available. Industry and regional breakdowns by month are available in our monthly potential redundancies dataset.

Wholesale gas and electricity prices increased in January 2026 compared with December 2025, coinciding with higher demand during a colder-than-average start to the year, and supply constraints.

System Average Price of gas and System Price of electricity

The System Average Price (SAP) of gas increased by 25% in January 2026, compared with December 2025, from 2.449 pence per kilowatt hour (p/kWh) to 3.064p/kWh but decreased by 27% when compared with January 2025, which had a monthly SAP of 4.222p/kWh.

The System Price of electricity increased by 32% in January 2026, compared with December 2025, from an average price of 7.548p/kWh to 9.952p/kWh. The price decreased by 18% when compared with January 2025, which had a monthly price of 12.127p/kWh.

The increase in wholesale gas and electricity prices in January 2026 coincided with high demand for gas to heat homes in low temperatures at the start of the year, and supply pressures. More information is available in Weather and Climate summaries - Met Office.

Changes in the System Average Price (SAP) of gas and the System Price of electricity are considered by the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) when setting the energy price caps for the next three months. Large changes in these prices can indicate that the future price cap set by Ofgem will change. 

Our accompanying System Average Price of gas dataset and System Price of electricity dataset are available.

New vehicle registrations

The seasonally adjusted number of new vehicle registrations decreased by 2% in January 2026 compared with December 2025. The largest decrease in new registrations over this period was in light commercial vehicles (LCVs), which fell by 13%, followed by private cars (4%). Registrations of business cars, in contrast, increased by 10%.

The seasonally adjusted number of new registrations for battery electric cars saw the largest decrease in January 2026, falling by 4% from December 2025, followed by hybrid electric cars, which decreased by 2% over the same period. New registrations of plug-in hybrid electric cars, in contrast, increased by 5%.

The seasonally adjusted proportion of new car registrations that were electric (Battery Electric, conventional Hybrid, Plug in Hybrid) remained broadly unchanged at 49% in January 2026 compared with December 2025, but increased by 3 percentage points compared with January 2025.

Our accompanying SMMT vehicle production and registrations dataset is available.

UK flights

The seasonally adjusted number of UK flights decreased by 2% in January 2026 compared with December 2025 and was 1% lower than January 2025.

Our accompanying Daily UK flights dataset is available.

Energy Performance Building Certificates

The seasonally adjusted number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) lodged in England and Wales for new dwellings decreased by 4% in January 2026, compared with the previous month. When compared with January 2025, they increased by 4%.

The seasonally adjusted number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) lodged in England and Wales for existing dwellings increased by 2% in January 2026, compared with the previous month, but decreased by 2% when compared with January 2025.

Our accompanying Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset and the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government's Weekly EPCs for domestic properties dataset are available.

This section lists a selection of data available in this publication. For the full list of available datasets, please see our accompanying dataset page.

Real-time indicator 

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or experimental estimates, which represent useful economic and social concepts.  

Seasonal adjustment  

Seasonal adjustment is the identification and removal of consistent and systematic variation in time series associated with the time of year. For more information on seasonal variation, and how we implement seasonal adjustment, see Section 2 of our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology article.

Official statistics in development 

These statistics are labelled as official statistics in development. Until September 2023, these were called "experimental statistics". Read more about the change in our Guide to official statistics in development.  

We are developing how we collect and produce the data to improve the quality of these statistics. Find out more in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology article. 

Once the developments are complete, we will review the statistics with the Statistics Head of Profession. We will decide if the statistics are of sufficient quality and value to be published as official statistics, or if further development is needed. Production may be stopped if they are not of sufficient quality or value. Users will be informed of the outcome and any changes. 

We value your feedback on these statistics. If you would like to get in touch, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

Dataset release dates and intended release frequency 

Latest release dates and intended release frequency of our associated datasets are available in this section. Please note that there may be some change to the intended release frequency for a variety of reasons, such as data availability. If you would like further information about any of these datasets, or previous release dates, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

Weekly data release 

• Revolut spending on debit cards dataset; updated 19 February 2026.  

• Automotive fuel spending dataset; updated 19 February 2026. 

• UK retail footfall dataset; updated 19 February 2026. 

• Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset; updated 12 February 2026. 

• System Average Price of gas dataset; updated 19 February 2026. 

• System Price of electricity dataset; updated 19 February 2026. 

• Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset; updated 19 February 2026. 

• Weekly shipping indicators dataset; updated 4 December 2025.  

• Daily UK flights dataset; updated 19 February 2026.

Monthly data release 

• Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset; updated 12 February 2026. 

• Textkernel new online job adverts dataset; updated 18 December 2025. 

• Value Added Tax (VAT) flash estimates dataset; updated 15 January 2025. 

• Renter affordability for new tenancies dataset; updated 15 January 2025. 

• SMMT vehicle registration and production dataset; updated 19 February 2026.

Strengths and limitations 

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society. We use close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys, or official statistics in development. 

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability. 

Seasonality 

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators, so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.