Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 16 March 2023

• In the latest week, business indicators were mixed, with total online job adverts increasing by 3%, but were 19% below the level on the equivalent period last year; company incorporations were broadly unchanged in the latest week but were 10% above the equivalent week last year, and company voluntary dissolutions were 2% higher than both last week and the equivalent week of last year (Adzuna, Companies House).

• Of businesses currently trading, there was an increase in the proportion that expected turnover to increase in April 2023 to now reflect a net balance of 9%, the highest on record (since April 2022) and 1 percentage point higher than the net balance of 8% of businesses that expected March 2023 turnover to increase (initial results from Wave 78 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS)). Section 3: Business and workforce.

• In February 2023, a seasonally adjusted net 1% of firms reported increased turnover on the previous month, compared with a net 3% who reported increased turnover in January 2023; the industry breakdown in February 2023 showed that services and construction had a net 0% change, production a net 4% increase, and agriculture, forestry and fishing a net 1% decrease (HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) VAT returns).

• Consumer behaviour indicators were mildly negative in the latest week, with the aggregate CHAPS-based indicator of credit and debit card purchases decreasing by 1 percentage point from the previous week (Bank of England CHAPS data), and the number of transactions at most Pret A Manger locations decreasing; elsewhere the estimated demand for fuel rose by 6 percentage points in the latest week while average fuel prices fell by 4 percentage points (Pret A Manger, Visa).

• Looking at transport indicators in the latest week, ship visits increased from the previous week but were lower than the level in the equivalent week of 2022; meanwhile, road traffic was unchanged in the latest week but was 2 percentage points above the 2022 level (exactEarth, Department for Transport).

• The System Average Price of gas was broadly unchanged in the week to 12 March 2023, compared with the previous week, but was 69% lower when compared with the level of the equivalent week of 2022, and 74% below the peak level recorded on 28 August 2022 (National Gas Transmission).

Notes:

1. Users should note that card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.
2. The gaps in the shipping timeline data are caused by technical issues.

Business impact and insights

Initial results from Wave 78 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) were collected from 6 to 14 March 2023, with a response rate of 23.5% (9,221 responses).

This section lists a selection of the data available in this publication. For the full list of available datasets, please see our accompanying dataset page.

Real-time indicator

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or Experimental Statistics, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Information on the methodology used to produce the indicators in this bulletin is available in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society, using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or Experimental Statistics.

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability.

UK coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions

Coronavirus restrictions should be considered when interpreting the data featured throughout this bulletin.

Seasonality

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.