Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 12 January 2023

• After trending downwards for almost a year, the total number of online job adverts fell below the pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) baseline in the week to 6 January 2023, for the first time since mid-April 2021 (Adzuna). Section 4: Business and workforce.

• When looking ahead to February 2023, one in five (20%) businesses reported energy prices were their main concern, followed by inflation of goods and services prices (16%) and the falling demand of goods and services (14%) (final results from Wave 73 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS)). Section 4: Business and workforce.

• Consumer behaviour indicators showed mostly decreased activity in the latest period, with Revolut debit card spending falling by 7 percentage points and overall retail footfall decreasing to 84% of the level of the previous week, in line with expected seasonal reductions in activity (Revolut, Springboard). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

• The System Average Price (SAP) of gas fell by 8% in the week to 8 January 2023 compared with the previous week and was 10% below the level of the equivalent week of 2022, partly driven by lower demand because of unseasonably mild weather across the UK and large parts of Europe (National Grid).

• The average number of UK flights in the week to 8 January 2023 and the number of Heathrow passengers in November 2022 were both above the levels reported in the equivalent period of the previous year; however, both remained below the levels of the equivalent period in 2019 at 89% and 92%, respectively (EUROCONTROL, Civil Aviation Authority). Section 5: Transport.

Notes:

1. Revolut adjustments to user count are at an aggregate level, and as such, age bands may not adjust evenly.
2. Users should note that card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.
3. Data for the CHAPS-based indicator of credit and debit card purchases are provisional from 5 December 2022 onward.

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Revolut debit card spending fell by 7 percentage points in the week to 8 January 2023 compared with the previous week. Of the six sector categories, spending decreased in four categories and increased in two categories. After experiencing the largest increases in the previous week, spending in "pubs, restaurants and fast food" and "entertainment" decreased the most in the latest period, falling by 25 and 14 percentage points, respectively. These changes are in line with expected seasonal patterns. The "automotive fuel" category saw the largest increase of 3 percentage points.

All categories were above the level of spending seen in the equivalent period of 2022, with spending in "automotive fuel" and "entertainment" at 47 percentage points and 38 percentage points above this level, respectively. Although "entertainment" spending rose above the pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) baseline for the first time since February 2020 in the previous week, in the latest period, it fell again to 12 percentage points below this level. Users should note that these data are not adjusted for the potential effects of inflation on the value of transactions. Our accompanying Revolut spending on debit cards dataset is available.

The number of in-store transactions at most Pret A Manger locations increased in the week to 5 January 2023, following the previous week's substantial fall in transactions, which was consistent with previous seasonal patterns. Transactions increased in eight of the ten available location categories in the week to 5 January 2023, with the impact of the national rail strikes largely offset by people returning to work and school following the Christmas holidays.

Transactions in Manchester saw the largest increase of 32 percentage points compared with the previous week, while regional town and London Airport locations saw the only decreases, with both falling by 8 percentage points. Our accompanying Transactions at Pret A Manger dataset is available.

Overall retail footfall decreased in the week to 8 January 2023 to 84% of the level of the previous week and 86% of the level seen in the equivalent week of 2019. Footfall in shopping centres saw the largest week-on-week decrease, at 80% of the level of the previous week, and also recorded the lowest level compared with 2019, at 83%. Footfall in retail parks was the closest to 2019 levels, at 92%.

Retail footfall also decreased in 9 of the 12 UK countries and English regions in the latest week. The largest decrease was in London, at 92% of the level of the previous week. All regions were down on 2019 levels, with the East of England closest at 93% and the East Midlands lowest at 85%.

The latest data for Automotive fuel spending are available in our accompanying Automotive fuel spending dataset.

Daily CHAPS-based indicator

UK spending on debit and credit cards: monthly CHAPS-based indicator

The total number of online job adverts fell by 3% in the week to 6 January 2023 compared with the previous week, with falls in 20 of the 28 job categories and 11 of the 12 UK countries and English regions. The "HR and recruitment" job category saw the largest decrease and fell by 19%, followed by the "energy, oil and gas" job category, which fell by 7%. Of the 12 UK countries and English regions, the largest falls were seen in the East Midlands, London and the North East, which all fell by 5%. The only region to show an increase on the week was Northern Ireland, which was up by 3%.

The total number of online job adverts was also 16% lower than the level seen in the equivalent period of 2022, with manufacturing showing the largest change, at 44% below the level of the equivalent period of last year. For the first time since mid-April 2021, the total number of online job adverts was below the pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) baseline, with the number of adverts 2% lower than this level. However, job advert numbers in early January historically show a strong seasonal effect, and should be viewed cautiously when making comparisons to other periods in the year. Our accompanying Online job advert estimates dataset is available.

In November 2022, the number of passengers at Heathrow was 92% of the level seen in November 2019 but was 86% higher than the level reported in November 2021. Our accompanying Heathrow flight passengers dataset is available.

The average number of UK flights in the week to 8 January 2023 increased by 7% from the previous week and was 135% of the level seen in the equivalent week of 2022. However, this was only 89% of the pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) level seen in the equivalent week of 2019. Our accompanying Daily UK flights dataset is available.

In the week to 8 January 2023, traffic camera activity for cars in London increased by 4% from the previous week, to 105% of the pre-coronavirus level. Pedestrian and cyclist activity in London grew by 10% compared with the previous week but remained at 85% of the pre-coronavirus level. Our accompanying Traffic camera activity dataset is available.

This section lists a selection of the data available in this publication. For the full list of available datasets, please see our accompanying dataset page.

Real-time indicator

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or Experimental Statistics, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Information on the methodology used to produce the indicators in this bulletin is available in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society, using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or Experimental Statistics.

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability.

UK coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions

Coronavirus restrictions should be considered when interpreting the data featured throughout this bulletin.

Seasonality

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.