1. Executive summary

In December 2018, the government presented to Parliament a White Paper Help Shape our Future: The 2021 Census of Population and Housing in England and Wales. This outlined the Office for National Statistics's (ONS's) proposal to collect information on qualifications to provide the basis for addressing variations in levels of skills and to enable interventions to be targeted appropriately.

In Census 2021, respondents will be asked questions about:

  • apprenticeships

  • degree-level or higher qualifications

  • NVQ or equivalent qualifications

  • A and AS level or equivalent qualifications

  • GCSE or equivalent qualifications

  • other qualifications (asked only if respondents have not selected any previous qualifications)

As in previous censuses, the question will only be asked of people who are aged 16 years or older.

The main changes to question design from 2011 are:

  • the question has been changed from one long question into several shorter questions

  • there are standalone questions on apprenticeships and degree-level and above qualifications

  • we have simplified the list of qualifications shown to respondents

  • we have added instructions and guidance text to help respondents answer the questions

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2. Aim of question development report

Since the publication of the White Paper, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has conducted and concluded the final phase of testing on qualifications. This report provides links to previously published research and the findings of additional testing that led to the final recommended questions for Census 2021 in England and Wales.

The questions and response options for Census 2021 have now been finalised through the census secondary legislation: The Census (England and Wales) Order 2020 and Census Regulations for England and Wales.

The evidence base for the recommendations made in the White Paper is discussed in Section 4: Research that led to the 2018 White Paper recommendations. The evidence base for the finalisation of the questions for Census 2021 is discussed the Section 5: Research that led to the recommended Census 2021 question designs.

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3. Research and development timeline

In June 2015, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) held a formal, 12-week consultation process asking census users for their views on the topics that were required in the questionnaire in England and Wales. The aim of the consultation was to promote discussion and encourage the development of strong cases for topics to be included in Census 2021.

In May 2016, the ONS published its response to the 2021 Census topic consultation. This set out our updated view on the topics to be included in Census 2021, including:

  • a summary of proposals for new topics

  • next steps

  • an overview of our plans

The 2021 Census topic consultation revealed a clear requirement for information on qualifications to understand the educational needs of the population, allocate resources and help inform policy.

A detailed summary of the consultation on education and qualifications can be found in the education topic report (PDF, 619KB). In this report, the ONS made clear commitments to the public. This included a commitment to shorten and simplify the qualifications question and to explore the use of administrative data on qualifications as a replacement for collecting such information in censuses and surveys.

We have provided an update on how we met these commitments in Annex 1 of this report.

Following this, we began a comprehensive programme of research and development. We have provided a full list of the tests used in the development of the qualifications questions in Annex 2. Further details are provided in the Summary of testing for Census 2021.

The tests utilised a range of qualitative and quantitative research methods. A short description of the different research methods and sampling techniques is given in the Question and questionnaire development overview for Census 2021. Testing included respondents from a wide range of educational backgrounds, for example, people with no qualifications, foreign qualifications, vocational qualifications, apprenticeships and professional qualifications.

In February 2018, we conducted a survey of stakeholders to further understand their data needs and to refine the requirements of the qualifications question.

In December 2018, the government presented to Parliament a White Paper Help Shape our Future: The 2021 Census of Population and Housing in England and Wales. This outlined our proposal to simplify the question on qualifications. Our research before the White Paper had shown that the user needs could not be met with a shorter question.

The question recommendations for Census 2021 are now finalised. We have evaluated the question for its potential impact on data quality, public acceptability, respondent burden, financial concerns and questionnaire mode. We have presented details of this evaluation in Annex 3.

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4. Research that led to the 2018 White Paper recommendations

References to tests take the form (Year: Test number). "Year" refers to the calendar year the test was undertaken. For example, the fifth test conducted in 2017 would be referenced as (2017:5).

Throughout development, the questions have undergone significant user experience (UX) testing (2017:2, 2018:2, 2019:1, 2020:2). UX testing focuses on understanding user behaviours as people interact with online services. Through observation techniques, task analysis and other feedback methodologies, it aims to develop a deep knowledge of these interactions and what it means for the design of a service.

Review of the qualifications question from the 2011 Census

We began our research for Census 2021 by looking at the qualifications question from the 2011 Census. The question had 13 response options, and in England it was:

Which of these qualifications do you have?

Tick every box that applies if you have any of the qualifications listed

If your UK qualification is not listed, tick the box that contains its nearest equivalent

If you have qualifications gained outside the UK, tick the 'Foreign qualifications' box and the nearest UK equivalents (if known)

[ ] 1 – 4 O levels/CSEs/GCSEs (any grades), Entry Level, Foundation Diploma

[ ] NVQ Level 1, Foundation GNVQ, Basic Skills

[ ] 5+ O levels (passes)/CSEs (grade1)/GCSEs (grades A* – C), School Certificate, 1 A level/2 – 3 AS levels/VCEs, Higher Diploma

[ ] NVQ Level 2, Intermediate GNVQ, City and Guilds Craft, BTEC First/General Diploma, RSA Diploma

[ ] Apprenticeship

[ ] 2+ A levels/VCEs, 4+ AS levels, Higher School Certificate, Progression/Advanced Diploma

[ ] NVQ level 3, Advanced GNVQ, City and Guilds Advanced Craft, ONC, OND, BTEC National, RSA Advanced Diploma

[ ] Degree (for example BA, BSc), Higher degree (for example MA, PhD, PGCE)

[ ] NVQ level 4 – 5, HNC, HND, RSA Higher Diploma, BTEC Higher Level

[ ] Professional qualifications (for example teaching, nursing, accountancy)

[ ] Other vocational/work-related qualifications

[ ] Foreign qualifications

[ ] No qualifications

The 2011 Census Quality Survey (PDF, 1.4MB) reported that the qualifications question had one of the lowest agreement rates (67.6%) of all the questions on the census. The agreement rate is calculated by comparing how a respondent answers the question on the questionnaire to how they answer during a face-to-face interview. A low agreement rate indicates that the quality of data collected is not ideal.

One reason for the low agreement rate was that many respondents found it hard to identify their qualifications, or equivalents, in the long and complex list presented to them. Another reason was that respondents found it difficult to recall their qualifications, particularly if they were achieved a long time ago.

Our report on the processing of the data from the 2011 Census (PDF, 819KB) found that the qualifications question had a relatively high non-response rate of 5.7%, suggesting that respondents may have found the question difficult to answer.

Our evaluation of the 2011 question in the education topic report (PDF, 619KB) found that the question had high potential for impact on data quality and respondent burden.

It was clear that there was a need to make the qualifications question easier to answer as part of the development of the question for Census 2021.

Refining the requirements from stakeholders

Although we had already consulted with stakeholders as part of the topic consultation in 2015, we also conducted a stakeholder survey in February 2018 to further refine their requirements.

The results of this survey showed that:

  • stakeholders needed to identify groups with low or no qualifications

  • stakeholders needed accurate data on apprenticeships but did not need to know the details on the type of apprenticeships

  • very few stakeholders used data from the foreign qualifications response option

  • shorter questions did not meet users' need for detailed data on qualifications

Changes to the paper questionnaire

When developing questions for Census 2021, we needed to ensure that the experience of answering questions on paper and online were closely matched to ensure that responses did not differ because of questionnaire mode.

In the early development phase of the qualifications question on Census 2021, the intention was to keep the paper questionnaire to four pages of questions per person, as it had been in 2011. This gave us limited scope to redevelop the question into a new format as we needed to ensure that any new question(s) fitted within the space available on the paper questionnaire.

Our early testing of questions (2016:6, 2018:1 and 2018:6) found that it was not possible to shorten the question on qualifications and to fully meet the user need for data.

In April 2018, a proposal to increase the length of the questionnaire to five pages per person was approved. The main reason behind this change was the introduction of new question topics; however, the early testing of shorter questions on qualifications also fed into this decision.

Recommendations for the qualifications question

The recommendations in the White Paper followed our research into the 2011 Census question and our consultation with stakeholders. These recommendations were to simplify the questions on education and to provide better quality data than that provided by the 2011 Census question as well as ensuring the data provided meet the needs of data users.

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7. Annex 1: Census commitments made on the topic of qualifications

In the Census 2021 topic consultation response, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) made clear commitments to the public. We committed to continuing to ask questions on the topic of qualifications. We also made commitments to:

  • shorten and simplify the qualifications question to ease respondent burden

  • investigate how data quality can be improved, drawing on the opportunities of a primarily online census

  • work with stakeholders to understand the details of their requirements

  • investigate the use of administrative data on educational qualifications

Simplifying and shortening the qualifications question

We simplified the qualifications question by:

  • dividing the question up into shorter, less burdensome questions, instead of one long question containing a large amount of text

  • simplifying the question; the questions only include the most common qualifications, and qualifications are grouped together in a logical way

  • making apprenticeships and degree-level qualifications standalone questions

We investigated shortening the qualifications questions in February 2018, when we conducted a stakeholder survey. The survey included some shorter example questions; however, none of the shorter questions suggested met the main requirements of the stakeholders, so these questions were not taken forward to further testing.

Improving data quality and developing the electronic questionnaire

Our development process has aimed to improve the quality of data by making it easier for respondents to record their qualifications. We have followed best practices, including the Government Digital Service's Service Standard, when designing and developing the electronic questionnaire. We present further details of new functionality in the electronic questionnaire designed to improve the online experience in the Question and questionnaire development overview for Census 2021.

Working with stakeholders

We worked with stakeholders such as the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS), the Department for Education (DfE) and the Senedd (Welsh Parliament) during the development process by holding regular topic group meetings for the qualifications and education topic that included stakeholders; this allowed these stakeholders insight into the development process at each stage and to be involved in the process of developing the questions. We also worked with them in February 2018, when we conducted a stakeholder survey to allow stakeholders to provide detailed feedback on their requirements.

Investigating the use of administrative data

The ONS is exploring the use of administrative data on qualifications as a replacement for collecting such information in censuses and surveys; administrative data have the potential to provide more accurate information on qualifications achieved by individuals than self-reported data.

In October 2019, early research demonstrating the potential of administrative data to provide information on educational qualifications was published. This feasibility research showed that administrative data provided high-quality information on the highest level of qualification in 2011 for individuals aged 16 to 25 years who studied in government-funded education in England. This offers insight into a large proportion of first-time entrants to the labour market and consequently an understanding of whether this group is equipped with the skills to meet market demands.

Further research is required to provide information on qualifications for all persons aged 16 years and over in England and Wales; therefore, surveys including the census remain the best way to collect this information to meet users' needs at this point in time.

Although our early research is encouraging, the ONS needs to further demonstrate that the dataset can provide statistical information on educational attainment to the level of statistical quality that will meet users' needs.

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8. Annex 2: Summary of research undertaken for the qualifications topic, 2016 to 2020

References to tests take the form (Year: Test number). "Year" refers to the calendar year the test was undertaken in and the test number is the position of the test within the year considering all testing that took place in that year. For example, the fifth test conducted in 2017 would be referenced as (2017:5).

A full description of each of these items can be found in the Summary of testing for Census 2021.

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9. Annex 3: Question evaluation

Evaluation of apprenticeships question

Potential for impact on data quality, public acceptability, respondent burden and financial concerns were assessed as "Low".

Potential for impact on questionnaire mode: "Medium"

This question has different instructions and layout online compared to the paper questionnaire as well as radio buttons that prevent more than one answer being given.

Evaluation of degree question

Potential for impact on public acceptability and financial concerns were assessed as "Low".

Potential for impact on data quality: "Medium"

This question is new for Census 2021, has the potential for recall bias and asks for information that cannot be directly observed. In addition, feedback from the 2019 Rehearsal (2019:15) showed that some participants misunderstood or missed this question. For Census 2021, we have implemented a few changes, including adding more examples and accordion guidance to help respondents answer this question.

Potential for impact on respondent burden: "Medium"

Feedback from the 2019 Rehearsal (2019:15) showed that some participants found this question difficult to answer. In addition, this is a new question in Census 2021 and asks for information that cannot be directly observed, which can make it difficult to answer on behalf of another person.

Potential for impact on questionnaire mode: "Medium"

This question has different instructions and layout online compared to the paper questionnaire as well as radio buttons that prevent more than one answer being given.

Evaluation of other qualifications question

Potential for impact on public acceptability and financial concerns were assessed as "Low".

Potential for impact on data quality: "Medium"

This question is new for Census 2021, has the potential for recall bias and asks for information that cannot be directly observed. Analysis of data from the 2019 Rehearsal (2019:15) showed that a higher than expected percentage of participants used the "Previous" button when answering these questions, suggesting that they were unsure of their answers.

Potential for impact on respondent burden: "High"

The question stem, instructions and response options are long, so respondents have a lot of text to read and understand when answering each question. This question can also be difficult to answer on behalf of another person and asks respondents to recall past events that may have happened a long time ago.

Analysis of data from the 2019 Rehearsal (2019:15) showed that a higher than expected percentage of participants used the "Previous" button when answering these questions and the average time spent on the screens was also longer than expected. These results suggest respondents had difficulty answering the questions.

Potential for impact on questionnaire mode: "High"

On paper, these questions are all presented as one question, split into sections. On the electronic questionnaire, it is split into multiple questions across four screens, with different instructions and layout to the paper questionnaire. Mutually exclusive response options are used online, and there are more response options available online than on paper.

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