Retail sales, Great Britain: February 2023

• Retail sales volumes are estimated to have increased by 1.2% in February 2023, following a rise of 0.9% in January 2023 (revised from a rise of 0.5%); when compared with the same month a year earlier sales volumes fell by 3.5%.

• Looking at the broader picture, sales volumes fell by 0.3% in the three months to February 2023 when compared with the previous three months.

• Non-food stores sales volumes rose by 2.4% over the month because of strong sales in discount department stores.

• Food store sales volumes rose by 0.9% in February 2023 following a rise of 0.1% in January 2023, with some anecdotal evidence of reduced spending in restaurants and on takeaways because of cost-of-living pressures.

• Non-store retailing (predominantly online retailers) sales volumes rose by 0.2% in February 2023, following a rise of 2.9% in January 2023.

• Automotive fuel sales volumes fell by 1.1% in February 2023 following a rise of 1.1% in January 2023 when rail strikes may have increased car travel.

Table 1 provides a snapshot of the retail sales industry in February 2023, with both volume and value growth rates.

Retail sales volumes are estimated to have increased by 1.2% in February 2023. This is the largest monthly increase since October 2022 (1.4%), which was affected by the additional bank holiday for the State Funeral of HM The Queen in September. The increase over the month to February 2023 returns sales volumes to February 2020 pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels.

The reporting period for this bulletin covers 29 January to 25 February 2023.

Figure 1 shows the quantity bought (volume) and amount spent (value) in retail sales over time.

Sales volumes rose by 1.2% in February 2023 following a rise of 0.9% in January 2023. Despite a second consecutive rise, sales volumes were down 3.5% when compared with the same month a year earlier.

Month-on-month contribution to growth by sector

Figure 2 shows the contributions to the 1.2% month-on-month rise in overall retail sales volumes (quantity bought) in February 2023. This highlights that the rise in non-food and food stores sales volume supported the positive monthly growth.

Non-food stores

Total non-food stores sales volumes (total of department, clothing, household and other non-food stores) rose by 2.4% over the month, following a rise of 1.0% in January 2023. Despite this pickup, sales volumes fell 1.7% when compared with the same month a year earlier.

Within non-food, department store sales volumes rose by 5.5% over the month, while clothing stores rose by 2.9%. Growth in both sub-sectors was because of strong sales at discount stores.

Other non-food stores sales volumes rose by 1.7% in February 2023, because of strong growth in second-hand goods stores, such as auction houses and charity shops. Household goods stores sales volumes fell by 0.3% in February 2023.

Food stores

Food store sales volumes rose by 0.9% in February 2023 following a rise of 0.1% in January 2023. This may be because of reduced spending in pubs and restaurants as people eat in more because of cost-of-living pressures.

Automotive fuel

Automotive fuel sales volumes fell by 1.1% in February 2023 following a rise of 1.1% in January 2023 when rail strikes may have increased travel by car. Sales volumes were 8.9% below their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) February 2020 levels.

Table 2 shows the month-on-month and month-on-year (annual) growth rates for the amount spent online by value, and the proportion of total retail sales value that was made online by sector. The percentage weights show where money is spent online. For example, 7 pence in every pound spent online was spent in department stores in 2022. Online spending values rose by 2.6% in February 2023, because of monthly increases across all industries except household goods stores.

The proportion of online sales was broadly unchanged at 25.4% in February 2023 from 25.3% in January 2023. The proportion of retail sales taking place online remains above the pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels (19.8% in February 2020).

Value (amount spent)

The value estimates reflect the total turnover that businesses have collected over a standard period.

Volume (quantity bought)

The volume estimates are calculated by taking the value estimates and adjusting to remove the effect of price changes.

Seasonally adjusted

Seasonally adjusted estimates are derived by estimating and removing calendar effects (for example, Easter moving between March and April) and seasonal effects (such as increased spending in December because of Christmas) from the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) estimates.

Non-seasonally adjusted

Non-seasonally adjusted estimates refer to raw data where the effects of regular or seasonal patterns have not been removed.

Non-store retailing

Non-store retailing refers to retailers that do not have a store presence. While the majority is made up of online retailers, it also includes other retailers, such as stalls and markets.

Quality

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Retail Sales Index Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).

Revisions

Revisions in this release are a result of:

• revisions to seasonal adjustment factors, which have been reviewed and re-estimated

• late responses to survey returns replacing imputations, or revisions to original returns

• annual update to deflator weights, which impacts implied deflators and volume estimates.

Industry price deflators are calculated from commodity price indices (Consumer Price Indices) using weights appropriate to the relevant industry derived from the Annual Business Survey (ABS) data on the value of turnover. In line with usual practice, updated weights have been calculated and applied from this release. The impact of this is small, a revision to monthly volume growth of 0.1 percentage points in some periods.

Revisions are allowed to occur naturally each month, along the full length of each data time series, following direct seasonal adjustment of the component time series.

For further information on the revisions profile, please see our Retail sales revisions triangles dataset, published on a one-month growth basis, and our Retail sales revisions triangles datasets, published on a three-month growth basis.

Uses and users

The Retail Sales Index (RSI) is an important economic indicator and one of the earliest short-term measures of economic activity. It is used in the creation of the national accounts and widely used by private and public sector institutions, particularly by the Bank of England and HM Treasury, to assist in informed decision and policymaking.

Comparability with international data

The most recent international estimate of retail sales available for February 2023 was published by the United States Census Bureau on 15 March 2023. In their Advanced monthly sales for retail and food services, February 2023 report, they included the amount spent in the United States retail industry, including motor vehicles and parts, and food services.

Data for Northern Ireland are published by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA). Their Retail Sales Index release for Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2022 was published on 16 March 2023.

It should be noted that accurate comparisons cannot be made against these or other international statistics for a variety of reasons, including differences in methodology.

Eurostat also published their latest estimates of the volume of retail trade across the EU on 6 March 2023 for January 2023. This shows the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade in both the euro area (EA19) and the European Union (EU27), when compared with December 2022.