Coronavirus and the economic impacts on the UK: 2 July 2020

More commentary on the impacts of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on the UK economy and society is available on the following pages:

• Coronavirus, the UK economy and society, faster indicators: 2 July 2020

• Coronavirus and the social impacts on Great Britain: 2 July 2020

• Of all responding businesses, 80% had been trading for more than the last two weeks, while 6% had started trading again within the last two weeks after a pause in trading.

• Of businesses who were continuing to trade, 6% of the workforce had returned from furlough in the last two weeks, while 2% had returned from remote working to the normal workplace.

• Of those businesses with a proportion of their workforce furloughed, 41% of businesses reported providing top-ups to furloughed workers' pay on top of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS).

• 86% of businesses who were continuing to trade, and who were using logistics services, reported that distribution demands had been met in the last two weeks.

• Of businesses continuing to trade, 42% reported that capital expenditure had stopped or was lower than normal because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

• Of all businesses continuing to trade, 11% reported that stock levels were higher than normal, while 17% reported that stock levels were lower than normal.

Final results from Wave 7 of the Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS) are for the period 1 June to 14 June 2020, which closed on 28 June 2020.

The sample design for BICS has been reviewed and refreshed, and went live for Wave 7 on Monday 15 June for the two-week period. This new sample design will be the basis for future waves and the questionnaire will now go to approximately 24,500 businesses from Wave 7 onwards. This sample redesign improves our coverage for the smaller-sized businesses.

Of the 5,927 businesses that responded (out of a sample size of 24,473) to Wave 7 of BICS, 86% of businesses reported continuing to trade as their current trading status, while 14% reported they had temporarily closed or paused trading. This differed little between the size of businesses.

A small number of businesses (fewer than 1%) also responded that they had permanently ceased trading in the period that the survey was live – 15 June to 28 June 2020.

Of all responding businesses:

• 80% had been trading for more than the last two weeks

• 6% had started trading again within the last two weeks after a pause in trading

• 10% had paused trading and do not intend to restart in the next two weeks

• 4% had paused trading but intend to restart trading in the next two weeks

The accommodation and food services activities sector and the construction sector reported the largest percentage of businesses to have restarted trading in the last two weeks, at 19% and 15% respectively.

The arts, entertainment and recreation sector, and the accommodation and food services activities sector reported by far the largest percentage of businesses indicating that they had paused trading and were not intending to restart in the next two weeks, at 50% and 43% respectively. This was followed by the information and communication sector and administrative and support service activities sector at just 9% for both.

Caution should be taken when interpreting these estimates based on the easing of lockdown restrictions that were announced on the 22 June 2020 in England. Businesses who responded after this date may have responded about their trading status differently based on this announcement.

Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have different timings and lockdown restrictions and the timings could also impact on the business response. It should also be noted that all regional estimates may be affected by the composition and type of industries within each region.

Increased turnover categories have been combined for presentational purposes, but the breakdown is available in the detailed dataset in Section 11.

The main sectors to have reported that their turnover decreased by more than 50% were the arts, entertainment and recreation sector (58%); the accommodation and food service activities sector (52%); and the construction sector (32%).

The human health and social work activities sector (private sector businesses only), and the information and communication sector reported the largest percentages of businesses who responded that their turnover had been unaffected in the period, at 44% and 41% respectively.

Of those businesses who were continuing to trade, the main sectors to have reported the highest percentage of businesses indicating that their turnover increased were wholesale and retail trade (19%) and manufacturing (11%).

At a UK level, of businesses that responded they were continuing to trade (5,097 businesses), 64% reported their turnover had been lower than normal in the last two weeks.

The North East was the region that had the greatest proportion of businesses that saw a decrease in turnover with 67%, and the lowest proportion of businesses with turnover unaffected at 15%.

In contrast, Northern Ireland saw the lowest proportion of businesses that saw a decrease in turnover with 60% and the highest proportion of businesses with turnover unaffected at 23%.

Wales and the East of England saw the next lowest proportion of businesses that saw a decrease in turnover with 62%.

Surveyed businesses who have not permanently stopped trading will have differing approaches to the management of employees, whether furloughing staff, working as normal or other scenarios. Because of the complex nature of this, the data in this section primarily focus on proportions of the workforce within responding businesses as opposed to proportion of businesses as is the case for other sections.

The workforce proportions are based on the responses provided by businesses. These are then apportioned to derive proportions of employees in those businesses using the employment recorded for each reporting unit on the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR). This apportionment of workforce methodology used for these data does not involve grossing to make a UK-wide estimation, therefore, the findings should not be treated as representative of the UK workforce.

Across all industries, of all businesses who have not permanently stopped trading, 23% of the workforce had been furloughed under the terms of the UK Government’s Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) (apportioned by employment size).

The arts, entertainment and recreation sector and the accommodation and food services sector had the highest proportions of furloughed workers – 70% and 67% respectively. 3% of the workforce, across all industries not permanently stopped trading, were off sick or in self-isolation due to coronavirus (COVID-19) with statutory or company pay with the remaining of the workforce working either from their normal place of work (34%) or working remotely (39%).

The education and information and communication sectors reported the largest proportion of the workforce working remotely (79% and 75% respectively). The accommodation and food services activities sector, and the arts, entertainment and recreation sector reported the lowest proportion of the workforce working remotely, at 5% and 17% respectively.

Broken down by trading status, of those continuing to trade,18% had been furloughed under the CJRS, rising to 86% of those who had temporarily closed or paused trading. Of those continuing to trade, the accommodation and food services sector had the highest proportion furloughed at 47%, while of those businesses temporarily closed or paused trading, the accommodation and food service activities sector also reported the highest proportion of the workforce furloughed across all industries, at 91%.

Across all industries, apportioned by workforce size, less than 1% of the workforce had been made permanently redundant for all businesses continuing to trade. This was also the case as a proportion of all those not permanently stopped trading.

However, of those businesses temporarily closed or paused trading, while the majority of industries had less than 1% of the workforce being made permanently redundant, the administrative and support service activities sector and the information and communication sector had a proportion of the workforce above 1% being made redundant, at 3% and 2% respectively.

When interpreting the proportion of the workforce estimates returning from remote working or from furlough leave in the last two weeks, consideration of the sectors that had a higher proportion of their workforce furloughed is needed. For example, of businesses continuing to trade, while the education sector reported that none of the workforce had returned from furlough in the last two weeks, the total proportion of the workforce on furlough was 10%, compared with 47% in the accommodation and food services activities sector.

A detailed breakdown by industry, and trading status, of all working arrangements can be found in the dataset in Section 11.

Of businesses who reported continuing to trade (5,097 businesses), 6% of the workforce had returned from furlough in the last two weeks, while 2% had returned from remote working to the normal workplace. The arts, entertainment and recreation sector and the water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities sector reported the highest proportion of the workforce returning to their normal place of work, at 5% and 4% respectively.

Of businesses who had temporarily closed or paused trading but intend to restart trading in the next two weeks, 23% of the workforce are expected to return from furlough, while 2% are expected to return to their normal workplace from remote working.

Of those businesses with a proportion of their workforce furloughed, 41% of businesses reported providing top-ups to furloughed workers pay on top of the CJRS. The education and arts, entertainment and recreation sectors reported the largest percentage of businesses providing top-ups to furloughed workers, at 78% and 57% respectively. Broken down by workforce size, 36% of businesses with fewer than 250 employees are providing top-ups to furloughed workers pay, compared with 48% of businesses with 250 employees or more.

Of businesses topping up their furloughed workers pay, across all businesses who have not permanently stopped trading (apportioned by workforce size), an average of 68% of the workforce have their pay topped up. Those businesses within education and human health and social work activities sector (private sector businesses only) reported the largest proportion of the furloughed workforce receiving top-ups, at 97% and 92% respectively.

Broken down by trading status, of businesses continuing to trade, 72% of the workforce have their pay topped up compared with 44% of the workforce of businesses temporarily closed or paused trading (apportioned by workforce size).

From Wave 7, we have modified the safety measures question to capture refined responses from those currently trading, and those who have paused trading but intend to restart in the next two weeks.

The three most common measures that businesses indicated they have implemented, or were intending to implement, in the workplace were social distancing, hygiene measures, and personal protective equipment (PPE), at 91%, 85% and 80% respectively. Caution should be taken when comparing these estimates across waves based on the sample redesign from Wave 7 and the increase in smaller businesses that the Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS) now samples.

Across all sectors continuing to trade or who have temporarily closed or paused trading and intend to restart in the next two weeks, 74% reported having implemented, or intending to implement, all three of the most common safety measures. A breakdown of all safety measures options can be found in the detailed dataset in Section 11.

The industries reporting the largest percentages of businesses implemented, or intending to implement, social distancing in the workplace were water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (99%) and manufacturing (98%). The industries with the lowest percentage of businesses implemented, or intending to implement, social distancing were the information and communication sector and the professional, scientific and technical activities sector at 70%, and 83% respectively.

There were 6% of businesses indicating they were implementing, or intending to implement, routine COVID-19 testing, of which was mainly driven by businesses within the human health and social work activities sector (private sector businesses only) (35%).

Of responding businesses, 2% reported having implemented or intending to implement no safety measures at all. At an industry level, the information and communication (12%) and professional, scientific and technical activities sector (6%) reported the highest percentage of businesses not having implemented, or not intending to implement, any of the measures specified. Of businesses who had not permanently stopped trading, these two industries were in the top three reporting the highest proportion of the workforce working remotely rather than their normal place of work, at 75% and 71% respectively. More information on the workforce by industry is available in Section 5.

The industries with the highest percentage of businesses indicating they were implementing, or intending to implement, personal protective equipment (PPE) were the human health and social work activities sector (private sector businesses only) and the transportation and storage sector, at 96% and 91% respectively.

Further details of additional safety measures are available in the detailed dataset in Section 11.

The following section presents percentages relative to all businesses who had not permanently stopped trading. This includes all those continuing to trade and all those who responded they had temporarily closed or paused trading.

Figure 8: 79% of businesses that had not permanently stopped trading had applied for the CJRS, while 95% reported to have received the CJRS

Government schemes estimates from the Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey, broken down by trading status, UK, 1 June to 14 June 2020

Notes:

1. Final results, Wave 7 of the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS’) Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (response rate = 24%).

2. Although businesses that reported as having permanently closed in a previous wave are not expected to continue to respond to subsequent waves, some have continued to respond as being permanently closed.

3. Businesses were asked for their experiences for the reference period 1 June to 14 June 2020. However, for questions regarding government schemes, businesses may respond from the point of completion of the questionnaire (15 June to 28 June 2020).

4. All percentages are a proportion of businesses that have not having permanently stopped trading apart from government schemes received, which is a proportion of those that have not permanently stopped trading and applied for the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) and/or government-backed accredited loans or finance agreements.

5. Bars will not sum to 100% as businesses could select multiple schemes.

Data download

Of businesses with fewer than 250 employees, and who had not permanently stopped trading, 26% had applied for a business grant compared with 11% of businesses with 250 employees or more; 26% of the former had also applied for government-backed accredited loans or finance agreements compared with 12% of the latter. There was little difference between workforce size of those applying for the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS).

Of businesses who had not permanently stopped trading, the accommodation and food service activities sector and the construction sector reported the highest percentage of businesses applying for the CJRS, at 96% and 90% respectively.

Businesses within the accommodation and food activities sector and the water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities sector reported the highest percentage of businesses having received the CJRS at 98% for both.

The construction sector and the administrative and support service activities sector both reported 97% of businesses having received the CJRS as a proportion of those that had applied for the CJRS and/or government-backed accredited loans or finance agreements. The construction sector and the accommodation and food service activities sector reported the highest percentage of businesses having received government-backed accredited loans or finance agreements, at 25% and 24%.

Of businesses with fewer than 250 employees, 25% had received government-backed accredited loans or finance agreements compared with 6% of businesses with 250 employees or more. Of the former, 2% had not received any funds from either of these two schemes, while this rose to 5% of the latter. There was little difference between the percentages of those having received the CJRS between workforce size.

Of businesses who have not permanently stopped trading, 83% of businesses in Scotland had applied for the CJRS, compared with 81% in Wales, 79% in England, and 74% in Northern Ireland.

Of businesses who have not permanently stopped trading, 14% of those operating in Scotland had not applied for any of these schemes, compared with 15% in Wales, 19% in England and 21% in Northern Ireland.

Of businesses continuing to trade, 9% had received other financial assistance from banks or building societies, compared with 12% of businesses temporarily closed or paused trading.

Further breakdown by industry of government schemes and initiatives can be found for those in the detailed dataset in Section 11. HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) has also published estimates on Coronavirus (COVID-19) statistics, looking at data on the CJRS, the Self-Employment Income Support Scheme, and the VAT payments deferral scheme. Any comparisons between HMRC and BICS estimates should be treated with caution.

Cash reserve categories, in Figures 9 and 10, between 0 and 6 months have been combined for presentational purposes, but the breakdown is available in the detailed dataset found in Section 11.

Of those businesses who had not permanently stopped trading and had 250 employees or more, 40% indicated they had cash reserves to last more than six months compared with 29% of businesses with fewer than 250 employees. In comparison, of the former, 38% reported having less than six months of cash reserves, compared with 53% of the of latter (including those with no cash reserves).

The accommodation and food services activities sector and the human health and social work activities sector (private sector businesses only) were the two industries with the highest percentage of businesses indicating they had no cash reserves, at 10% and 6%.

The accommodation and food services activities sector also had the highest percentage of businesses across all industries indicating they only had cash reserves to last between 0 and 6 months, at 57%, followed by construction at 55%.

Conversely, the real estate activities sector and the education sector reported the highest percentage of businesses indicating they had cash reserves to last more than six months, at 53% and 49% respectively.

The North East had the lowest proportion of businesses with less than six months of cash reserves at 34%.

Wales had one of the lowest proportion of businesses with more than six months of cash reserves at 31%, alongside Northern Ireland at 29%. The South East had the highest proportion of businesses with more than six months of cash reserves at 40%.

In Wave 7 of the Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS), businesses continuing to trade were asked whether they had used logistics services to distribute goods or services produced, within the UK, in the last two weeks. Of businesses continuing to trade, 35% reported that they had used logistics services. These businesses were then asked of their experience of the logistics services used.

Of businesses continuing to trade and who had used logistics services to distribute goods or services produced within the UK, 86% of businesses reported that distribution demands were met in the last two weeks.

The construction sector and the information and communication sector reported the largest percentage of businesses reporting that only some distribution demands were met, at 21% and 14% respectively. While 96% of businesses within water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities and 94% of businesses within the education sector reported that all distribution demands were met.

A detailed breakdown by region and workforce size of distribution demands in the UK can be found in the detailed dataset in Section 11.

Businesses continuing to trade were also asked in Wave 7 how their capital expenditure had been affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Of all businesses continuing to trade, 19% reported that capital expenditure had stopped, while 23% reported that capital expenditure had been lower than normal.

The arts, entertainment and recreation sector and the accommodation and food services sector reported the highest percentage of businesses reporting that capital expenditure had stopped, at 40% and 36% respectively.

In contrast, the human health and social work activities sector (private sector businesses only), and the information and communication sector reported the lowest percentage of businesses reporting that capital expenditure had stopped, at 4% and 9% respectively. 6% of businesses continuing to trade reported that capital expenditure had been higher than normal.

Additionally, businesses continuing to trade were asked how the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic affected businesses stock levels in the last two weeks.

Of all businesses continuing to trade, 11% reported that stock levels were higher than normal, while 17% reported that stock levels were lower than normal.

The manufacturing sector reported the largest number of businesses indicating that stock was higher (19%), while the accommodation and food service activities sector reported the largest number of businesses (43%) indicating that stock was lower than normal. 35% of all businesses continuing to trade reported that stock levels had not changed. Stock levels differed little between business workforce size.

Access to BICS related microdata

The BICS microdata for Waves 1 to 6 can now be accessed via the Secure Research Service (SRS). The BICS microdata for each wave will be released on a rolling basis in the following week once the publication of each wave is completed.

The microdata is confidentialised and does not disclose any specific business.

Only researchers accredited under the Digital Economy Act are able to access data in the Secure Research Service (SRS). You can apply for accreditation through the Research Accreditation Service (RAS) and will have to have relevant academic or working experience and must successfully attend and complete the assessed Safe Researcher Training.

To conduct analysis with microdata from the SRS, a project application must be submitted to the Research Accreditation Panel (RAP). The UKSA have published an example project application for guidance.

In order to access the SRS, you must also have to work for an organisation with an Assured Organisational Connectivity agreement in place.

The Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS) is voluntary and may only reflect the characteristics of those that responded; the results are experimental.

The business indicators are based on responses from the voluntary, fortnightly Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey, which captures business' views on impact on turnover, workforce prices, trade and business resilience. Wave 7 data relate to the period 1 June to 14 June 2020. The survey questions are available in Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey questions: 1 June to 14 June 2020.

There were several additional questions in Wave 7 that were new to the BICS from previous waves. These included detailed questions on UK supply chains and capital expenditure.

The different experiences of businesses during COVID-19

In the final results of Wave 7, of 24,473 businesses surveyed, 5,927 businesses (24.2%) responded.

The Wave 7 survey was live for the period 15 June to 28 June 2020 and businesses were asked about their experience for the two-week survey reference period 1 June to 14 June 2020. Dependent on responses to certain questions, businesses are asked different questions.

For questions or response options referring to the "last two weeks" or expectations of the "next two weeks", businesses could respond from the point of completion of the questionnaire based on their current experiences. This means that business responses may cover any two-week time period across the following reference periods respectively: 1 June to 28 June 2020 and 28 June to 12 July 2020. More detail on the type of questions asked are available in the detailed dataset in Section 11.

Weighting

Estimates from the Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS) are currently unweighted and should be treated with caution when used to evaluate the impact of the coronavirus across the UK economy. Each business was assigned the same weight regardless of turnover, size or industry, and the data in the latest period are preliminary.

Coverage

The approach for the sample design has been to use three standard Office for National Statistics (ONS) surveys, the Monthly Business Survey (MBS), Retail Sales Inquiry (RSI) and Construction as a sampling frame. Each of these survey samples are drawn from the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) which covers businesses in all parts of the economy, except those that are not registered for Value Added Tax (VAT) or Pay As You Earn (PAYE), which includes very small businesses, the self-employed, those without employees, and those with low turnover. Some non-profit making organisations are also not registered on the IDBR.

MBS covers UK for production and only Great Britain for services. Retail sales and Construction are Great Britain focused. Therefore, BICS will be UK for production-based industries but Great Britain for the other elements of the economy covered.

The industries covered are:

• non-financial services (includes professional, scientific, communication, administrative, transport, accommodation and food, private health and education, and entertainment services)

• distribution (includes retail, wholesale and motor trades)

• production (includes manufacturing, oil and gas extraction, energy generation and supply, and water and waste management)

• construction (includes civil engineering, housebuilding, property development and specialised construction trades such as plumbers, electricians and plasterers)

The following sectors are excluded from the survey:

• agriculture

• public administration and defence

• public provision of education and health

• finance and insurance

Reporting unit

The business unit to which questionnaires are sent is called the reporting unit. The response from the reporting unit can cover the enterprise as a whole, or parts of the enterprise identified by lists of local units. Other than for a minority of larger business or businesses that have a more complex structure, the reporting unit is the same as the enterprise.

Where more than one type of economic activity is carried out by a local unit or enterprise, its principal activity is the activity in which most of the people are employed, and it does not necessarily account for 50% or more of the total employment of the unit. There are detailed rules for determining Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) for multiple-activity economic units.

Regional estimates

Regional BICS estimates are produced by taking the survey return from each reporting unit then applying this to the reporting unit's local sites. If a business has a site or several sites (also known as local units) within a country, using information from the IDBR, then this business is defined to have presence there.

The business is then allocated once within each region (regardless of the number of sites) and the information provided by the reporting unit as a whole copied and used within each country.

Sample

Only the businesses that have responded to Wave 7 of the Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS) are represented in these data, and as such it is not fully representative of the UK as a whole. Currently, we do not apply weighting methods to these data.

The sampling frame used in the BICS was designed to achieve adequate coverage of the listed industries from the monthly business surveys. Coverage and response rate of the medium to largest businesses in terms of total employment is satisfactory to produce estimates on this basis.

To help interpretation of the data, we have presented results based on the number of employees in each business, grouping fewer than 250 employees and those with 250 employees or more.

All businesses with an employment of greater than 250 employees and included within the three monthly surveys (MBS, RSI, Construction) are included in the BICS sample with a random sample of 1% for those with an employment between 0 and 249.

The sample design for Wave 7 of BICS has been reviewed and refreshed and went live from Monday 15 June for the two-week period. This new sample design will be the basis for future waves and the questionnaire will now go to approximately 24,500 businesses from Wave 7 onwards. This sample redesign improves our coverage for the smaller sized businesses.

This gives a total of 24,473 businesses in the sample with a split of 7,302 in employment for 250 and over and 17,171 for employment between 0 and 249. This breaks down further for 14,472 for employment between 0 and 99, and 2,699 for employment between 100 and 249.

Response rates for these size bands are available in the detailed Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS) dataset.

As the sample is selected fortnightly, the same businesses will be selected for at least two waves depending on how many COVID-19 survey selections there are between the selection of these feeder surveys. Because of the randomly selected element, there will be differences in this part of the sample once the feeder surveys have been redrawn. As this is a voluntary survey, businesses may or may not choose to respond to the different waves. Response coverage can be mixed between the different waves.

While we have the ability to align the reporting unit to lower level detail, and also increased detail on the SIC, it is not advisable given the sparseness of response in certain industries and size band.

Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey

The Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS) is voluntary and responses are qualitative, which should be treated with caution, as results reflect the characteristics of those who responded and not necessarily the wider business population.

These data should not be used in place of official statistics. The survey was designed to give an indication of the impact of the coronavirus on businesses and a timelier estimate than other surveys.

We do not recommend comparison between the latest data from BICS and previous releases because of changes in the questionnaire and additional questions. Further analysis is currently being undertaken to allow this for future publications.

Comparison of waves

Comparison of the proportions of businesses trading status between waves should be treated with caution because of the voluntary nature of the survey, the difference in response rates and dependency on those businesses that only responded in particular waves. For example, there were 2,520 businesses that responded they were continuing to trade in Wave 7 that did not respond in Wave 6. Conversely, 3,664 businesses stated they were continuing to trade in Wave 6 but did not respond in Wave 7. The sample redesign from Wave 7 will affect these estimates, and comparison across waves for previous iterations should be continued to be treated with caution.

A recent article on Business impact of coronavirus, analysis over time, UK: Waves 2 to 5 pane captures common businesses responses on how their turnover, workforce, prices, trade and business resilience have been affected in the two-week reference period. These data relate to the period 23 March 2020 to 17 May 2020 (Wave 2 to Wave 5).

An update of analysis across waves will be covered in the Economic Review, in an article on the Insights of the Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey: 23 March to 2 April (Wave 2) to 5 to 28 June (Wave 7) 2020, on 8 July 2020.

Publication of coronavirus (COVID-19) related data

This bulletin is published on a fortnightly basis. This is to ensure we are meeting user needs for more timely data.

High-level provisional estimates will be included as part of the Office for National Statistics' (ONS') faster indicators release in the alternative weeks.