Business insights and impact on the UK economy: 25 January 2024

• Latest results suggest business conditions remained challenging in December 2023, but businesses' outlook for February 2024 is more positive for some measures.

• More than a quarter (29%) of trading businesses reported turnover had decreased in December 2023 when compared with November 2023, up 6 percentage points; while 14% reported their turnover was higher, broadly stable over the same period.

• When looking ahead to February 2024, 18% of trading businesses expect their turnover to increase, up 7 percentage points from expectations for January 2024; while 14% reported that they expect their turnover to decrease, down 11 percentage points over the same period.

• More than one in six (17%) trading businesses expect to raise the prices of goods or services they sell in February 2024, broadly stable with expectations for January 2024.

• Nearly half (47%) of trading businesses reported they were not considering raising prices in February 2024, broadly stable with January 2024; of those businesses that are considering raising prices, nearly a quarter (23%) reported labour costs as their main reason for doing so.

• More than one in five (21%) trading businesses reported their overall performance decreased in December 2023 compared with the same calendar month in 2022, up 4 percentage points when comparing November 2023 with November 2022.

The data presented in this bulletin are the final results from Wave 100 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS), which was live from 8 January 2024 to 21 January 2024. 

The data reported within BICS bulletins and datasets are estimates that are subject to uncertainty, for example, sampling variability and non-sampling error. Further information on quality is available in our Business Insights and Conditions Survey Quality and Methodology Information (QMI), and we regularly update confidence intervals associated with the survey questions. 

Single-site weighted regional estimates up to Wave 92 are available in our Business insights and impact on the UK subnational single-site economy: November 2023 article.

Figure 1: Headline figures from the Business Insights and Conditions Survey

Notes:

1. For presentational purposes, some response options have been combined, excluded or both.

2. For presentational purposes, “Prices” data show an increase to prices bought and sold compared with the previous calendar month.

3. Data are plotted in the middle of each wave.

The percentage of businesses that reported they were trading in early January 2024 was 96%, with 86% fully trading and 9% partially trading (for example, trading with reduced hours or staff numbers). Meanwhile, 3% of businesses reported "temporarily paused trading", and 1% reported "permanently ceased trading" as their business's trading status.

Turnover

Trading businesses were asked how their turnover in December 2023 compared with November 2023, excluding any seasonal trading.

The percentage of trading businesses that reported their turnover had decreased in December 2023 compared with the previous calendar month was 29%, up 6 percentage points compared with November 2023. Over the same period, 48% reported their turnover had stayed the same, down 6 percentage points.

The percentage of businesses that reported their turnover had increased in December 2023 compared with the previous calendar month was 14%, broadly stable compared with November 2023.

Of trading businesses, more than a quarter (26%) reported that economic uncertainty is currently having an impact on their turnover. Although trading businesses continued to report challenges to their business, 35% reported they were not currently experiencing any challenges, up 4 percentage points from early October 2023. This was the largest proportion reported since the question was introduced in late April 2022.

Turnover expectations

Trading businesses were asked about their turnover expectations for February 2024, excluding any seasonal trading.

Although 29% of trading businesses reported a decrease in turnover for December 2023, 12% expected their turnover to increase in January 2024, and when looking ahead to February 2024, 18% expect their turnover to increase. In contrast, 26% expected their turnover to decrease in January 2024, and this drops to 14% for February 2024. This suggests that while trading businesses experienced a difficult December 2023, they are more optimistic about the coming months.

Prices bought and prices sold

Businesses not permanently stopped trading were asked how the prices of goods or services they bought and sold in December 2023 compared with the previous calendar month.

Latest estimates continue to suggest that a lower proportion of trading businesses are reporting an increase each month in the prices of goods or services bought, with 23% reporting an increase in December 2023. This is broadly stable with November 2023, and the lowest proportion reported since these response options were introduced to this question in March 2022.

Conversely, around 1 in 10 (10%) trading businesses reported an increase in the prices of goods or services sold in December 2023 compared with November 2023. This suggests that a greater proportion of businesses are absorbing the higher prices from buying themselves rather than passing them onto their customers.

Further response options broken down by industry and size bands can be found in our accompanying dataset.

Price expectations

Businesses not permanently stopped trading were asked what their expectations were for the prices of goods or services they sell in February 2024.

Of trading businesses, more than one in six (17%) expect to raise the prices of goods or services they sell in February 2024, broadly stable with January 2024.

The proportion of businesses who reported that they expect prices to stay the same also remained broadly stable at 57% over the same period. Meanwhile, 2% of businesses expected prices to decrease, broadly stable with January 2024.

Price rise reasons

In early January 2024, businesses not permanently stopped trading were asked what, if anything, was causing them to consider raising their prices in February 2024.

Nearly half (47%) of trading businesses reported they were not considering raising prices in February 2024, broadly stable with January 2024. In comparison, labour costs were reported as the top reason for businesses considering raising prices, with almost a quarter (23%) reporting this.

Across all industries, the other most reported reasons for businesses considering raising prices included:

• energy prices (22%), down 3 percentage points from January 2024
• raw material prices (20%), broadly stable with January 2024
• finance costs (14%), broadly stable with January 2024

Businesses not permanently stopped trading were asked what their main concern for their business was when looking ahead to February 2024.

Businesses were asked for their main concern; this does not mean they do not have any other concerns for their business.

Looking ahead to February 2024, 61% of businesses have some form of business concern, down 2 percentage points from concerns for January 2024, and the lowest proportion reported since late February 2022.

The three main concerns reported by businesses for February 2024 were:

• falling demand of goods and services (18%), broadly stable with January 2024
• energy prices (9%), broadly stable with January 2024
• inflation of goods and services (7%), down 3 percentage points from 10% for January 2024

The percentage of businesses that reported no concerns was 29% for February 2024, up 3 percentage points from January 2024.

Further details, including the full list of concerns broken down by industry and size band, are available in our accompanying dataset.

Businesses not permanently stopped trading were asked how they would describe their overall performance in December 2023 compared with December 2022.

More than one in five (21%) trading businesses reported that their overall performance for December 2023 decreased compared with December 2022, up 4 percentage points when comparing November 2023 with November 2022. Conversely, 17% reported that their performance had increased over the same period.

When asked in early January 2024, more than a quarter (26%) of trading businesses reported that they expect their overall performance to increase over the next 12 months, up 5 percentage points from early December 2023. Those expecting their performance to stay the same was 45%, down 4 percentage points, and those expecting their performance to decrease was 9%, broadly stable over the same period, which aligns with the expectations businesses had for their turnover.

Access to microdata 

You can access the microdata for Waves 1 to 99 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) through the Secure Research Service (SRS). The BICS microdata for each wave are released on a rolling basis in the week following the publication of each wave. The microdata are made confidential and do not disclose information on any specific business. 

Only researchers accredited under the Digital Economy Act, as explained on the UK Statistics Authority website are able to access data in the SRS. You can apply for accreditation through the Research Accreditation Service (RAS). You need to have relevant academic or work experience and must successfully attend and complete the assessed Safe Researcher Training.  

To conduct analysis with microdata from the SRS, a project application must be submitted to the Research Accreditation Panel (RAP), as explained on the UK Statistics Authority website. To access the SRS, you must also work for an organisation with an Assured Organisational Connectivity agreement in place.

Reporting unit

The reporting unit is the business unit to which questionnaires are sent. The response from the reporting unit can cover the enterprise as a whole, or parts of the enterprise identified by lists of local units.

More quality and methodology information (QMI) on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) QMI, which was updated on 24 January 2022. 

The BICS is voluntary, and the results are official statistics in development. More information is available in our Guide to official statistics in development.

The results are based on responses from the voluntary fortnightly BICS, which captures businesses' views on financial performance, workforce, prices, trade and business resilience. The Wave 100 survey was live for the period 8 January 2024 to 21 January 2024. For full details of the survey questions used, see our Business Insights and Conditions Survey questions: 8 January 2024 to 21 January 2024 article.

Coverage

The BICS sampling frame is based on the same industries as our Monthly Business Survey (MBS). The MBS covers the UK for production industries only, and Great Britain for construction, retail and services industries. The MBS is an important input to the output measure of gross domestic product (GDP), which includes monthly GDP. 

For detailed information on the industries covered by the MBS and BICS, see our GDP(o) data sources catalogue. The following are some industries that are excluded from MBS and BICS: 

• agriculture 
• oil and gas extraction 
• energy generation and supply 
• public administration and defence 
• public provision of education and health 
• finance and insurance 

For more information on the methodology of producing the BICS, such as weighting, please see our Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) QMI.

More quality and methodology information (QMI) on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) QMI.