Business insights and impact on the UK economy: 16 November 2023

• Latest results suggest business conditions remain challenging but estimates show small signs of positive improvement for some measures; examples include, a smaller proportion reporting higher prices for goods or services they bought and sold, and a smaller proportion expecting to raise the prices of goods they sell.

• Nearly a quarter (24%) of trading businesses reported turnover had decreased in October 2023 compared with the previous calendar month; in comparison 14% reported that their turnover was higher, both broadly stable with September 2023.

• Approximately one in six (16%) trading businesses expect their turnover to increase in December 2023, broadly stable with the proportion that had these expectations for November 2023; meanwhile 23% reported that they expect their turnover to decrease, down 8 percentage points over the same period.

• Nearly a quarter (23%) of trading businesses reported an increase in the prices of goods or services bought in October 2023 compared with September 2023, down 4 percentage points when comparing September 2023 with August 2023.

• Of trading businesses, 10% expect to raise the prices of goods or services that they sell in December 2023, down 3 percentage points from expectations for November 2023.

• Nearly two-thirds (62%) of businesses reported some form of concern for their business when looking ahead to December 2023; broadly stable with November 2023.

The data presented in this bulletin are the final results from Wave 95 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS), which was live from 30 October to 12 November 2023.

The data reported within BICS bulletins and datasets are estimates that are subject to uncertainty, for example, sampling variability and non-sampling error. Further information on quality is available in our Business Insights and Conditions Survey Quality and Methodology Information (QMI), and we regularly update confidence intervals associated with the survey questions.

Experimental single-site weighted regional estimates up to Wave 92 are available in our Business insights and impact on the UK subnational single-site economy: November 2023 article.

Figure 1: Headline figures from the Business Insights and Conditions Survey

Notes:

1. For presentational purposes, some response options have been combined, excluded or both.
2. For presentational purposes, “Prices” data show an increase to prices bought and sold compared with the previous calendar month.
3. Data are plotted in the middle of each wave.

Download the data

The percentage of businesses that reported they were trading in early November 2023 was 95%, with 86% fully trading and 9% partially trading (for example, trading with reduced hours or staff numbers). Meanwhile, 3% of businesses reported "temporarily paused trading" and 2% reported "permanently ceased trading" as their business's trading status.

Turnover

Trading businesses were asked how their turnover in October 2023 compared with September 2023, excluding any seasonal trading.

The percentage of trading businesses that reported their turnover had decreased in October 2023 compared with the previous calendar month was 24%, broadly stable compared with September 2023.

The percentage of businesses that reported their turnover had increased in October 2023 compared with the previous calendar month was 14%, broadly stable compared with September 2023. Businesses that reported their turnover had stayed the same was unchanged at 53% over the same period.

Turnover expectations

Trading businesses were asked about their turnover expectations for December 2023, excluding any seasonal trading.

Approximately one in six (16%) trading businesses expect their turnover to increase in December 2023; this is broadly stable with November 2023.

In comparison, 23% of businesses expect their turnover to decrease in December 2023, up 8 percentage points from November 2023, and the largest proportion of businesses to report this since January 2023 (29%).

Over the same period, nearly half (49%) expect their turnover to stay the same, this is down 7 percentage points from the previous months' expectations, and the lowest proportion of businesses to report this since January 2023 (48%).

Prices bought and prices sold

Businesses not permanently stopped trading were asked how the prices of goods or services they bought and sold in October 2023 compared with the previous calendar month.

Latest estimates suggest that a lower proportion of trading businesses are reporting an increase each month in the prices of goods or services bought and sold.

Nearly a quarter (23%) of trading businesses reported an increase in the prices of goods or services bought in October 2023, down 4 percentage points from September 2023. In contrast, 10% reported an increase in the prices of goods or services sold in October 2023; this is broadly stable with September 2023.

These percentages are the lowest proportions reported since these response options were introduced to this question in March 2022.

Further response options broken down by industry and size bands can be found in our accompanying dataset.

Price expectations

Businesses not permanently stopped trading were asked what their expectations were for the prices of goods or services they sell in December 2023.

Of trading businesses, 1 in 10 (10%) expect to raise the prices of goods or services they sell in December 2023. This is down 3 percentage points from November 2023, and the lowest proportion reported since this question was introduced in April 2022.

The proportion of businesses who reported that they expect prices to stay the same rose by 4 percentage points to 68% over the same period. This is the largest proportion reported since this question was introduced in April 2022. Meanwhile, 3% of businesses expected prices to decrease, the largest proportion reported since January 2023.

Price rise reasons

In early November 2023, businesses not permanently stopped trading were asked what, if anything, was causing them to consider raising their prices in December 2023.

More than half (51%) of trading businesses reported that they were not considering raising prices, broadly stable with businesses expectations for November 2023.

Across all industries, the most reported reasons for businesses considering raising prices included:

• energy prices (22%), broadly stable with November 2023

• labour costs (19%), broadly stable with November 2023

• raw material prices (17%), broadly stable with November 2023

Businesses not permanently stopped trading were asked what their main concern for their business was when looking ahead to December 2023.

Businesses were asked for their main concern; this does not mean they do not have any other concerns for their business.

Looking ahead to December 2023, 62% of businesses have some form of business concern, broadly stable with November 2023.

The three main concerns reported by businesses for December 2023 were:

• falling demand of goods and services (19%), up from 16% for November 2023

• energy prices (10%), down from 12% for November 2023

• inflation of goods and services (8%), down from 10% for November 2023

The percentage of businesses that reported no concerns was 29% for December 2023, broadly stable with November 2023.

Further details, including the full list of concerns broken down by industry and size band, are available in our accompanying dataset.

Businesses not permanently stopped trading were asked how they would describe their overall performance in October 2023 compared with October 2022.

More than one in five (21%) trading businesses reported that their overall performance for October 2023 decreased compared with October 2022, broadly stable when comparing with September 2023.

In comparison, when asked in early November 2023, 22% of trading businesses reported that they expect their overall performance to increase over the next 12 months, down 3 percentage points from early October 2023. Those expecting their performance to stay the same was up 2 percentage points over the same period from 45% to 47%.

Access to microdata

You can access the microdata for Waves 1 to 94 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) through the Secure Research Service (SRS). The BICS microdata for each wave are released on a rolling basis in the week following the publication of each wave. The microdata are made confidential and do not disclose information on any specific business.

Only researchers accredited under the Digital Economy Act, as explained on the UK Statistics Authority website are able to access data in the SRS. You can apply for accreditation through the Research Accreditation Service (RAS). You need to have relevant academic or work experience and must successfully attend and complete the assessed Safe Researcher Training.

To conduct analysis with microdata from the SRS, a project application must be submitted to the Research Accreditation Panel (RAP), as explained on the UK Statistics Authority website. To access the SRS, you must also work for an organisation with an Assured Organisational Connectivity agreement in place.

Reporting unit

The reporting unit is the business unit to which questionnaires are sent. The response from the reporting unit can cover the enterprise as a whole, or parts of the enterprise identified by lists of local units.

More quality and methodology information (QMI) on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) QMI, updated on 24 January 2022.

The BICS is voluntary, and the results are experimental. More information is available in our Guide to experimental statistics.

The results are based on responses from the voluntary fortnightly BICS, which captures businesses' views on financial performance, workforce, prices, trade and business resilience. The Wave 95 survey was live for the period 30 October to 12 November 2023. For full details of the survey questions used, see our Business Insights and Conditions Survey questions: 30 October to 12 November 2023 article.

Coverage

The BICS sampling frame is based on the same industries as our Monthly Business Survey (MBS). The MBS covers the UK for production industries only, and Great Britain for construction, retail and services industries. The MBS is an important input to the output measure of gross domestic product (GDP), which includes monthly GDP.

For detailed information on the industries covered by the MBS and BICS, see our GDP(o) data sources catalogue. The following are some industries that are excluded from MBS and BICS:

• agriculture

• oil and gas extraction

• energy generation and supply

• public administration and defence

• public provision of education and health

• finance and insurance

For more information on the methodology of producing the BICS, such as weighting, please see our BICS QMI report.

More quality and methodology information (QMI) on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) QMI.