You asked
In terms of population how many residents in the Borough of St Helens (Merseyside) are from the EU (excluding UK)?
Is this segment of the population currently forecast to grow over the next 10 years? If so, by how much? Do these figures take into account the BREXIT vote?
Once the impact of BREXIT is understood, is the intention to review ONS population forecasts?
If a review of population forecasts is planned before the completion of BREXIT please advise of planned review date.
We said
Thank you for your enquiry about the number of people resident in the borough of St Helens from the EU (excluding UK).
1.
We publish estimates of population of the UK by country of birth and nationality for calendar years.
Country of birth indicates where someone is born and cannot be changed whereas nationality can. People migrating to the UK can change their nationality to become British citizens whatever their country of birth. A further example would be that a child born in Germany to British parents stationed there as part of the armed forces would have British nationality but Germany as country of birth. In order to answer your question as fully as possible, estimates for residents by both country of birth and nationality are provided.
The latest available data for St Helens is for the calendar year 2016. Table 1.1, country of birth (taken from the link above) shows that we estimate the number of people born in non-UK EU countries resident in the borough to be 6,000 with a confidence interval (CI) of + or - 3,000.
For non-UK EU nationals (table 2.1, nationality, from the link above) we estimate the number of EU residents in the borough to be 5,000 with a CI of + or - 2,000.
These estimates are based on the Annual Population Survey and have a CI which indicates that we expect the actual figure to be the estimate of persons plus or minus the CI, so for St Helens in 2016 we expect the true number of non-UK EU nationals to be in the range 3,000 to 7,000.
2.
Our latest Subnational Population Projections (SNPPs), based on mid-2014 population estimates, were published in May 2016, so pre-date the Brexit vote. Population projections take data from the preceding years and project them forward. Please see this bulletin for more information about population projections and the methodology for producing them. The lowest level geographies we produce population projections for are local authorities and clinical commissioning groups but we do not split these by nationality.
3 & 4.
We publish new population projections every 2 years and the next release of SNPPs will be based on mid-2016 population estimates and is due for publication in May to June 2018. A more definite date will be available on our release calendar once it is decided. However, projections are not predictions so the 2016-based version will not attempt to predict the impact of Brexit or other future political or economic events or policies. In addition the base date, mid-2016, closely coincides with the date of the referendum; this means the underlying statistics will not yet reflect any post-referendum changes.
When accessing any of our files please read the 'notes, terms and conditions' contained within them.
If you have any further questions please do not hesitate to contact us on pop.info@ons.gov.uk