You asked
Please answer the following questions:
(1) How did the ONS decide which households to send paper forms to?
(2) If someone had their main home in England and a second home in Scotland, but were living in Scotland at the time of the England & Wales census, should they submit a return? Would it make a difference if they were 'marooned' in Scotland because of COVID-19 restrictions?
(3) As previous question, but outside the UK. Also, would you have sent a form to an overseas address on request?
(4) Please publish all of the census forms online so that everyone can see them.
We said
Thank you for your request. Please see the following answers to your questions:
(1) How did the ONS decide which households to send paper forms to?
We have previously published the statistical design for the 2021 Census which includes description of how decisions were made on which households were sent paper forms to initially. Briefly, this was done geographically based on likely levels of response and also relative propensity to respond on-line, using other data sources such as driving licence renewals and applications.
The relevant section from that document is extracted here:
We have developed two indices to help this prediction. The first is a hard-to-count index (DOCX, 1.24MB) to categorise the relative likelihood of households in a small area (Lower layer Super Output Area (LSOA) level) responding without reminder letters or field visits. This is modelled on 2011 Census patterns of response, updated using administrative data sources to account for demographic changes since 2011. The second is a separate geographic index to indicate the relative propensity of households in an area to respond to Census 2021 online. This model uses Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA) data on the mode of driving licence application and renewals (online or paper) as a proxy for the mode of census return and includes Office of Communications (Ofcom) data on broadband take-up, age of residents and Government Office Region.
The two indices will be used together to determine where to send paper first, to determine where to send paper questionnaires as a reminder, and to help guide planning for Census Support Centres. These indices also feed into the volumetric modelling that determines how many field staff we need to recruit, and where, as well as the volumes of reminder letters and other printed material required.
The full published document is available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/census/censustransformationprogramme/censusdesign/statisticaldesignforcensus2021englandandwales#design-and-build.
(2) If someone had their main home in England and a second home in Scotland, but were living in Scotland at the time of the England & Wales census, should they submit a return? Would it make a difference if they were 'marooned' in Scotland because of COVID-19 restrictions?
(3) As previous question, but outside the UK. Also, would you have sent a form to an overseas address on request?
The guidance provided to people who were away from main residence is detailed here: https://census.gov.uk/help/types-of-household-or-accommodation/second-homes-holiday-lets-and-empty-properties/i-have-a-second-property.
You will see that the guidance states that if you or a resident was away from their main residence, then a census form should still be completed for that address if they are still in the UK, or plan to be outside the UK for less than 12 months. We would not have sent a form to an overseas address on request. Forms were only sent to the address that the response was intended from.
(4) Please publish all of the census forms online so that everyone can see them.
The blank paper forms used for Census 2021 are available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/census/censustransformationprogramme/questiondevelopment/census2021paperquestionnaires.
Completed returns are considered personal information and are therefore exempt under Section 40 (2) of the Freedom of Information Act 2000 (FOIA). Completed returns are kept private and confidential for 100 years, before they are made available for genealogy research.