FOI reference: FOI-2024-2360
You asked
Do you hold any data that evidences whether White Britons or White British people will become a minority in the UK by the end of the century?
We said
Thank you for your request.
We do not produce projections by ethnic group so we're unable to comment on this exact question.
We have had queries about the feasibility to produce projections by ethnic group in the past from a wide range of stakeholders. There are significant barriers to production, the main one being that several key input datasets (for example, deaths and births) do not break down the data by ethnicity.
We can provide you with the most recent population figures by ethnic group from Census 2021. The ONS publish census data for England and Wales. Scotland and Northern Ireland carry out their own census, their contact details are provided below.
Please see the associated Excel file with the following dataset: TS021 – Ethnic group.
This was downloaded from the Nomis website, which is a service run by Durham University on behalf of the Office for National Statistics. Further tables can be found at www.nomisweb.co.uk.
Census 2021 was run by the ONS and covered England and Wales. Contact details for Scotland and Northern Ireland census data are:
National Records of Scotland
Tel: 0131 3144299
Email: statisticscustomerservices@nrscotland.gov.uk
Website: www.nrscotland.gov.uk
Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
Tel: 02890 255156
Email: census@nisra.gov.uk
Website: www.nisra.gov.uk
You may be interested to learn that over the 15 years between mid-2021 and mid-2036, the UK population is projected to grow by 6.6 million people (9.9%) from an estimated 67.0 million to 73.7 million; this includes 541,000 more births than deaths, and net international migration of 6.1 million people.
It is important to note that national population projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict potential changes in international migration. There is uncertainty over future directions and levels of international migration. Demographic assumptions for future fertility, mortality and migration are based on observed demographic trends.