You asked
Please give the March 2020 - January 2021 figures for deaths where Covid-19 shown as the ONLY cause on the death certificate, so that I can update the 4,476 figure (March to June 2020), as shown in the following publication: Deaths involving COVID-19, England and Wales.
As at 8 January 2021, you say there were 86,887 deaths where Covid-19 is mentioned anywhere on the death certificate (involving COVID-19), and 78,811 where it is mentioned as the primary (but not only) cause. Presumably therefore the 78,811 deaths 'due to COVID-19' are included in the 86887 deaths 'involving COVID-19' (as are the 4,476 deaths with no underlying conditions)?
As the total deaths within 28 days of a positive covid test are 100,000 or so, where are those "other" deaths"? Some 14,000 or so?
We said
Thank you for your enquiry.
Q1: Please give the March 2020 - January 2021 for deaths where Covid-19 shown as the ONLY cause on the death certificate, so that I can update the 4476 figure.
Please see the following publication: Pre-existing conditions of people whose death was recorded with an underlying cause of COVID-19, deaths registered in 2020. This dataset can be found in section 7 of our Monthly mortality analysis bulletin. This dataset provides a greater insight into the leading pre-existing cause of death groups, for deaths occurring in England and Wales in 2020 that were due to COVID-19. This will be updated quarterly. COVID-19 deaths involving pre-existing conditions is split by broad age groups between 1-64 and 65+.
Please see 'table 1a, row 28' for deaths where COVID-19 was listed as the underlying cause, but had no other pre-existing conditions recorded on the death certificate.
There were a total of 9400 deaths in 2020 that were due to COVID-19 and were recorded without any pre-existing conditions.
This publication provides data from January to December 2020. The data requested for January 2021 will be published in the next update of this publication.
As such, the information you have requested for January 2021 is considered exempt under Section 22(1) of the Freedom of Information Act 2000, whereby information is exempt from release if there is a view to publish the information in the future. Furthermore, as a central government department and producer of official statistics, we need to have the freedom to be able to determine our own publication timetables. This is to allow us to deal with the necessary preparation, administration and context of publications. It would be unreasonable to consider disclosure when to do so would undermine our functions.
This exemption is subject to a public interest test. We recognise the desirability of information being freely available and this is considered by ONS when publication schedules are set in accordance with the Code of Practice for Statistics. The need for timely data must be balanced against the practicalities of applying statistical skill and judgement to produce the high quality, assured data needed to inform decision-making. If this balance is incorrectly applied, then we run the risk of decisions being based on inaccurate data which is arguably not in the public interest. This will have an impact on public trust in official statistics in a time when accuracy of official statistics is more important to the public than ever before.
Q2: You say 86887 deaths where Covid-19 is mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, and 78,811 where it is mentioned as the primary (but not only) cause. Presumably therefore the 78,811 deaths 'due to COVID-19' are included in the 86887 deaths 'involving COVID-19' (as are the 4,476 deaths with no underlying conditions)?
Figure 2 of our Deaths registered weekly bulletin shows the number of deaths due to COVID-19 and the number of deaths involving COVID-19 with "due to" referring only to deaths where COVID-19 was recorded as the underlying cause of death and "involving" referring to deaths that had COVID-19 mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, whether as an underlying cause or not.
Please see the 'download data' option at the bottom of Figure 2.
Here are the latest summed totals for COVID-19 deaths up to week ending 19 February 2021:
Deaths involving COVID-19 (underlying or secondary cause): 128,077
Deaths due to COVID-19 (underlying cause): 115,574
The previous figure of 78,811 deaths in England and Wales that were 'due to' COVID-19 would be included within the 'involving COVID-19' totals.
The previous figure of 4476 deaths in England and Wales that we caused by COVID-19 only would also be included within these totals. (Figure can be found in our early publication on table 5: Deaths involving COVID-19, England and Wales)
Q3: As the total deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test are 100,000 or so, where are those "other" deaths"? Some 14,000 or so?
The COVID-19 data we collect and report on is based on information on death certificates, rather than deaths within a certain amount of days of a COVID-19 positive test. Our data therefore differ from the data published on the GOV.UK website, which are counts of all causes of death where a positive test for COVID-19 has been confirmed. We cannot comment on differences in figures as we were not involved in the production of the data.
If you would like to discuss these statistics further, please contact health.data@ons.gov.uk.